The analysis of the information gathered during the course of the mission from existing documentation, reports, and from the conversations with project management and different persons involved in fish-farming, leads to conclude that there is are good conditions for development of commercial fish-farming in Zambia. Those conditions are best when fish-farming can be combined with other farming activities which can supply feeding and/or fertilizing ingredients like chicken, duck or pig-raising at no out-of-pocket cost to the farmer. Fish-farming operations covering 5 ha or more could then bring financial returns of 23%–33% in average performance conditions of 6 T/ha yields.
Significant differences in construction costs seem to favor large size (5000m2, 2500m2) production ponds over smaller (1500m2) ponds. Increased yields can hardly offset the cost increment.
The financial returns expected from fish-farming operations depend on the cost of development since fish-farming is a capital intensive operation. Therefore the financial rates of return which have been computed depend on the prices quoted by Brunelli Construction which have provided the information on construction costs. Compared to costs charged by Brunelli for actual projects, the quoted costs appear high. Thus, the financial rates of return based on those costs would probably be considerably underestimated.
In general, the costs figures on which the calculation have been based are subject to this strong variations of this Zambian economy and in particular to its external trade sector and the rate of exchange of the Kwacha. Therefore, it would be useful to revise periodically those costs figure used, although it would take major changes to modify the general orientation of this conclusion.
The most favorable factor for the success of commercial fish-farming is the growing demand for fish and in particular for fresh fish in the urban areas of Zambia. The fact that the population is necessary at a fast pace, that urban population is expanding even fast and that capture fisheries are approaching maximum sustanable yield (75,000 T) create favorable conditions for development of commercial fish-farming, mainly in peri-urban areas.
The development of this potential requires gathering of more information and creation of a program which would provide technical support for expansion of commercial fish-farming.
Regular surveys of prices and supplies of fresh, dried and smoked fish should be made on the most important urban markets. Frequency of surveys (at least once a month ideally once a week) is more important than the number of markets surveyed in one specific city, as long as the main ones covered. A simple methodology should be developed in order to make accurate assessment of fish supply and demand situation.
Because of this importance of animal-husbandry as an activity to be carried in association with fish-farming, records should be kept of market prices for chicken, pigs and ducks and prices of different feeds required for those activities.
A survey of fish-farming activities in main peri-urban areas would help identify farms and farming areas where supply of water and other fish-farming inputs would help the development of commercial fish-farming such a survey could made in cooperation with other services of Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development and the Commercial Farmers Bureau.
The network of governement fish-farming stations covered by FAO/UNDP project could try to implement a coordinated experimentation program in order to gather more information on yields and conversion ratios for different feeding and fertilizing methods, on different sizes of production ponds. The fact that Mwekera station has 0.25 ha production ponds, Chipata station has 0.5 ha ponds and Chilanga has 0.15–0.2 ponds creates an opportunity for such a program. Although not all types of associated husbandry are viable in all areas.
Because of much better yields obtained with monoculture of O.andersonii, thus stocking option is now favored by most fish-farming operations over polyculture of O.andersonii, T.rendalli and O.macrochir. Monoculture of O.andersonii should therefore recommended over polyculture option.
Even among existing fish-farmers, there is a strong need for technical back-up concerning fish-farming development and management. Thus it is important that either the Fisheries Department or another source provides strong technical back-up to commercial farmers willing to add fish-farming to their on-going activities. Such a technical back-up would start with an assessment of fish-farming potential accessible for any interested farmer, taking into account quantity and quality of water, immediate supply of feed and fertilizer. If conditions are judged favorable, a fish-farming development program suited to the interested farmer's situation should be proposed. This development program should also be implemented with adequate technical support until the fish-farming operations are well started and beyond. Due to the importance of adequate back-up for the success of fish-farming operation, the cost of that technical support should be covered partly or entirely by the farmer himself.
