A summary of outline capital and operating cost is provided in Table 12. Further details are provided in Appendix 3 which also identifies those components of a larger, -50-t project to-be covered by the initial project. (LIB/86/002) and the associated support project (LIB/86/008).
As defined in outline, the project is capable at 50 t level of producing fish at a price of approximately 5 Libyan Dinars/kg, covering all normal capital charges. On operating costs only, production cost is reduced to approximately 3.2 Libyan Dinars/kg. On a simple rate of return basis, with a market price of 5 L.D./kg, the 50 t project will yield approximately 12% under these assumptions; this will be. reduced somewhat for a true discounted cashflow, rate of return. In . . the longer1 term, with expansion towards 100 or 150 t production, costs can be-expected to reduce., assuming other factors remain the same. At this stage, the costs of major inputs to the project have yet to be exactly defined; in view of the project's “pioneer” status, it is possible that substantial investment and raw material cost support may be available to encourage its development to full scale commercially viable production.
At the level of precision available at this stage, it is difficult to apply conventional economic sensitivity analysis methods. However, it can be noted that production costs are relatively sensitive to feed, manpower and electricity costs, and are moderately sensitive to fixed capital costs, and hence .productivity (kg/m3 raceway/year). In the initial phases the relative costs of skilled manpower are also significant, though these may be expected to reduce as the project expands, and as more skilled staff become available. As the project expands, the relative cost of the main infrastructure (office, stores, pump station, services), will diminish, and marginal cost will relate more to the cost of providing additional raceways. In the longer term,savings in feed cost may also be expected, as aquaculture production starts to justify the use of locally manufactured feeds.
Additional support costs, training costs,etc. are identified separately and are not considered integral to the main project, as these are more appropriately related to development of national resources in marine aqua-culture. More complete details are given in the relevant appendices. Some additional costs may also be necessary during the first phase to allow for easy expansion into Phase II without undue disturbance to existing facilities in Phase I. These costs relate mainly to the water distribution system and are identified separately. The decision on how much of this work will be necessary in the first phase will be affected by the final detail design and by the construction schedule.
