G. BIRAUD (France): L'importance de l'étude que nous avons sous les yeux et sa densité, tant au sens propre qu'au sens figuré, m'obligent d'abord à vous demander votre indulgence pour la longueur un peu inhabituelle de mon intervention.
En commençant je voudrais d'abord féliciter le Dr. Islam et ses collaborateurs de l'effort considérable que représente cette tentative de synthèse approfondie. Nous sommes d'ailleurs bien conscients du caractère complexeet périlleux de toute étude prospective au niveau mondial. Le Directeur général lui-même a pris soin de nous dire, à l'alinéa 4 de l'introduction de ce projet d'étude, que nulle tentative n'y est faite pour prévoir ou prédire la tournure probable des événements d'ici à la fin du siècle, mais ne nous cachons pas toutefois que nombreux seront ceux qui interpréteront comme une prévision les données de cette étude. La délégation française regrette d'ailleurs un peu ce choix, ce parti-pris initial car l'étude définitive de la FAO, comme d'autres études en préparation dans d'autres instances spécialisées, servira de matériaux à une nouvelle stratégie internationale du développement qui ne saurait constituer un simple exercice intellectuel pour experts, mais bien nous donner la vision d'un avenir que nous voulons tous améliorer en profondeur. Mais nous n'avons pas à perdre de vue que cette vision, pour être mobilisatrice, devra demeurer crédible, et dans cet esprit, pour accroître la crédibilité de l'étude "Agriculture, Horizon 2000", ma délégation voudrait maintenant présenter un certain nombre de remarques et de suggestions.
Le projet d'étude révèle au lecteur attentif deux composantes. D'une part un modèle global de projection quantitative constitué essentiellement par les premier et dernier chapitres, d'autre part des chapitres d'observations et de réflexions plus spécialiséspour chaque aspect du développement agricole national.
Nous tenons à féliciter particulièrement le Secrétariat de la qualité et de l'intérêt des chapitres 4 à 12, visiblement inspirés par une réflexion de qualité s'appuyant sur une large expérience. Ces chapitres mettent bien en lumière les possibilités et les choix offerts aux gouvernements des Etats Membres dans leur politique économique et sociale. Il en est ainsi par exemple des choix stratégiques à faire entre l'accroissement des superficies cultivées et l'utilisation plus intensive des terres, entre agriculture pluviale et agriculture irriguée, entre diverses spéculations, cultures vivrières ou non vivrières, entre diverses technologies existantes avec les dosages de facteurs de production qui leur sont associés.
Nous voulons, en nous associant à tout ce qu'a dit hier le représentant de la Norvège au nom des pays nordiques, souligner avec une insistance particulière l'excellence des chapitres 11 et 12 de cette étude consacrés respectivement aux politiques de prix agricoles et aux changements institutionnels dont les orientations rejoignent l'expérience propre des experts français, ainsi que les conclusions pertinentes de la dernière Conférence internationale du travail à Genève et de la Conférence mondiale sur la réforme agraire et le développement rural.
Ces chapitres mettent en évidence l'influence décisive que peut avoir sur la production rurale et sur le développement en général une plus grande participation des petits exploitants agricoles aux revenus dérivés de leurs efforts de production et de productivité ainsi qu'aux décisions les concernant localement, la responsabilité de chacun des gouvernements des pays en développement est engagée à cet égard et les auteurs de l'étude soulignent eux-mêmes en plusieurs endroits qu'on ne saurait entendre la réalisation du schéma normatif en termes de nutrition, de production, de productivité, d'emploi, en l'absence d'une vigoureuse action de redistribution des revenus, notamment entre ruraux et urbains, par le biais en particulier d'une meilleure organisation de la commercialisation interne et de politique de prix incitative pour les petits producteurs.
La solution des graves problèmes d'emploi dans le monde en développement dépend elle aussi, nous dit-on, et nous voulons bien le croire, de telle stratégie gouvernementale. Ma délégation tire donc de la lecture de l'étude la conclusion que la réalisation du scénario normatif présenté, même en supposant les conditions les plus favorables aux pays en développement sur le plan du commerce international, n'a aucune chance de se réaliser sans une modification très profonde, pour ne pas dire radicale, de la stratégie globale de développement de la plupart des gouvernements des pays en développement, ne serait-ce que pour assurer aux agriculteurs l'essentiel des bénéfices nés de l'exportation de leurs produits et aux masses rurales une part des ressources publiques mieux proportionnée à leur importance dans la population de chaque pays.
Dans ces conditions, ma délégation demeure un peu surprise devant le caractère, malgré tout sommaire, d'autres orateurs ont dit hier mécanique, du modèle macro-économique qui nous a été présenté. En particulier, nous ne pouvons que déplorer l'absence de toute variante permettant de traduire ce que je viens de dire, à savoir la prise en compte ou, au contraire, l'absence de prise en compte des propositions contenues dans les chapitres 4 à 12 de l'étude par les politiques économique et sociale des pays en développement. En effet, les seules variantes quantitatives présentées concernent les échanges internationaux et mettent en cause essentiellement la politique commerciale des pays développés, aspect privilégié à l'évidence par le modèle.
Cette sophistication sélective du modèle nous apparaît d'autant plus étonnante que les 90 pays en développement considérés dans cette étude conscomment eux-mêmes la majeure partie de leur production agricole (88 pour cent en 1975) et que l'on raisonne donc à propos de leurs exportations nettes sur des soldes, donc sur des grandeurs ultra-sensibles à toute espèce d'erreur d'estimations ou de prévisions.
Or, les auteurs remarquent d'eux-mêmes, à la page 52, paragraphe 68, que leurs données sur les flux commerciaux ne permettent guère d'examiner à part les roles passés et futurs des différents marchés extérieurs dans le développement de l'agriculture du tiers monde. Si donc on centre à juste titre l'analyse sur l'agriculture des pays en développement eux-mêmes, l'impression que donne le bilan des tendances passées, contenu dans le premier chapitre, est que la différence de performances entre pays à croissance agricole rapide et pays à croissance agricole lente s'expliquerait par une différence de rendement et de productivité. Mais c'est prendre la mesure d'un phénomène pour sa cause. Or, les causes d'une croissante aussi différenciée doivent être recherchées aussi bien du côté de la demande que du côté de l'offre. En effet, des débouchés commerciaux et des revenus plus élevés et des conditions de vie meilleures incitent fort les agriculteurs à produire plus et mieux en les mettant en mesure de le faire en utilisant des facteurs de production nouveaux.
Il nous semble que les auteurs de l'étude pourraient donc privilégier, moins qu'ils ne le font dans les trois premiers chapitres, ce qu'ils appellent les paramètres de croissance de la production qui sont tous situés du côté de l'offre et entrent seuls dans le fonctionnement du modèle:superficie cultivable, irrigation, inputs, technologie. En particulier, le choix explicitement fait en faveur de l'irrigation aux dépens des cultures pluviales pourrait être reconsidéré. Un des orateurs d'hier avait déjà soulevéce point. De même pourrait être reconsidéré le choix qui, lui, n'est pas explicité en faveur des cultures non alimentaires et de l'élevage aux dépens des cultures alimentaires. En outre, une meilleure prise en compte des effets de revenus permettrait aux auteurs de réconcilier le modèle avec les excellentes observations faites dans le texte à propos de la redistribution du revenuet, comme l'ont demandé avant moi d'autres orateurs, ma délégation souhaiterait que l'on abandonne l'hypothèse d'une répartition de revenus inchangés de 1975 à l'an 2000.
Pour toutesces raisons, la délégation française souhaite que dans la présentation définitive de l'étude, la notion de valeur soit dynamisée et qu'en particulier soit abandonnée l'hypothèse irréaliste de la constance detous les prix relatifs intérieurs au niveau de 1975 jusqu'à la fin du siècle, hypothèse paradoxale aprèsque le rôle crucial des prix ait été souligné dans plusieurs chapitres.
L'expérience a d'ailleurs montré, par exemple dans la première moitié des années 70, combien le marché mondial des céréales est sensible à des variations quantitatives relativement modestes en regard de la production. Sans pretender prévoir de fluctuations de prix, nous souhaitons donc que le modèle permette, pour la demande de chacun des produits sur le marché, de trouver sa traduction en valeur enfonction des élasticités observées sur chaque marché et ceci de façon aussi simple que possible.
En matière de produits alimentaires, les indications du scénario proposé sous le terme de tangentiel indique clairement le risque, par exemple, d'une tendance lourde à la pénurie relative de céréalesdans le tiers monde. Celles-ci, tout comme l'énergie aujourd'hui, auront donc tendance à s'apprécier, en particulier vis-à-vis des cultures non alimentaires, et il faudrait que le modèle puisse permettre d'en tenir compte. Une telle amélioration, par l'introduction de l'élasticité des prix, permettrait d'améliorer les deux scénarios proposés, surtout si elle était étendue au marché interne des Etats, car elle permettrait alors de prévoir les réactions des producteurs aux incitations d'une politique gouvernementale que le modèle actuel suppose par définition presque inchangé dans le scénario tangentiel et, au contraire, optimal dans le scénario normatif. Du même coup, serait éliminée une ambiguïté fondamentale de l'étude concernant la nature même de la demande, celle-ci est tantôt confondue avec les besoins physiques, nous semble-t-il, dérivés des normes nutritionnelles et des prévisions démographiques, et tantôt considérée comme une véritable demande économique solvable, c'est-à-dire liée au pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs, ce qui nous paraîtêtre la conception la plus juste, du moins la plus exacte. Le fait de ne pas distinguer parmi les consommateurs les populations urbaines des populations rurales occulte aussi un grand nombre de facteurs fondamentaux, tant du point de vue de l'offre que de la demande, et interdit en particulier de prendre en compte les conséquences du phénomène majeur qu'est l'urbanisation accélérée nourrie par l'exode rural. Sans doute, la valorisation dynamique du modèle permettrait-elle aussi de mieux mettre en lumière les différences de stratégie économique souhaitables, tant au nord qu'au sud, entre pays à vocation affirmée, soit pour l'agriculture d'alimentation, soit pour les cultures industrielles, soit pour un composé de deux types, ou encore sans vocation agricole. Je rejoins ainsi les orateurs qui, hier, souhaitaient que le modèle soit plus affiné.
De même, des complémentarités au niveau sous-régional ou régional devraient être prises en compte et les modèles sous-régionaux de production et d'échanges qui en résulteraient seraient certainement d'un intérêt plus immédiat que le modèle nord-sud global présenté au chapitre 13.
En outre, il serait commode de régionaliser le modèle sous sa présentation en regroupant toutes les caractéristiques de chaque continent actuellement éparses dans l'étude, en annexe par région. Dans ce type de calcul, on ne perdra pas de vue que tous les pays voudront légitimement s'assurer un degré minimum d'autosuffisance alimentaire, même à prix élevés, pour des raisons évidentes d'indépendance. Ceci n'est plus vrai pour les cultures non alimentaires ou d'exportation ou régnait davantage la loi des avantages comparatifs.
Ma suggestion suivante consistera à souhaiter que le scénario tendanciel soit véritablement tendanciel et soit plus élaboré. Il est excellent d'utiliser comme une sorte de référence la projection des tendances passées sur une longue période car elle permet de bien faire apparaître les contraintes et les problèmes de toutes sortes qui risquent d'affecter la production et les échanges agricoles ainsi que la consommation alimentaire. Mais, pour qu'un exercice revête toute son utilité et notamment pour la sensibilisation des responsables, des décideurs, il doit être conduit à la fois de façon plus rigoureuse et plus élaborée qu'il ne l'a été dans le projet actuel d'étude. En particulier, c'est sans complaisance qu'il devrait prolonger les tendances passées, fussent-elles très médiocres, en termes de taux de croissance, quitte à faire apparaître pour l'avenir des contradictions insupportables.
Or, le modèle présenté comme tendanciel implique déjà globalement une accélération sensible des taux de croissance observés pour le PIB, pour le produit intérieur brut par habitant et les dépenses de consommation privée par habitant.
Si l'on prend l'exemple de l'Afrique, rien pourtant ne permet d'assurer que dès les premiers mois de l'an prochain, la croissance du PIB va, sur sa lancée tendancielle, augmenter de 23 pour cent, celle du produit intérieur brut par habitant de 38 pour cent, celle de la production agricole brute de 40 pour cent par rapport au “trend” 1963/1975, même si l'on tient compte de la sécheresse qui a affecté cette région pendant cette période.
Nous souhaiterions en outre qu'un scénario véritablement tendanciel soit présenté avec autant de soin que le scénario normatif dans la version définitive de l'étude.
Ma dernière série des suggestions, qui rejoint tout à fait les propos déjà évoqués par certains des orateurs qui m'ont précédé, est relative à la prise en compte d'hypothèses de croissance plus réalistes, et je pense que le Secrétariat ne sera pas étonné de notre réaction. Le scénario normatif prend en effet pour point de départ et pour modèle à travers la demande, des taux de croissance du PIB qui lui sont complètement exogènes. Ceci constitue déjà une difficulté d'ordre logique pour les pays où l'agriculture constitue une grande part de l'économie totale. Mais surtout, les taux de croissance du PIB sur lesquels est construit le scénario normatif sont extraordinairement élevés et éloignés des performances passées, pour ne pas dire irréalistes; ce que d'ailleurs les auteurs reconnaissent eux-mêmes puisqu'ils soulignent qu'ils constituent une rupture radicale avec le passé-je cite la page 30, paragraphe 16. Ils ajoutent d'ailleurs, ''ce qui est certain c'est que le volume des exportations agricoles des pays en développement ne saurait connaître une expansion en quelque point comparable à celle du PIB total et partant des besoins d'importation"-c'est le paragraphe 34.
Les taux qui sont pris en compte ici nous apparaissent comme des taux souhaités, des taux essentiellement politiques pourrais-je dire, mais ils nous apparaissent irréalistes dans la mesure où ils supposent le maintien des tendances passées pour la croissance des pays développés, ce qui est manifestement optimiste par rapport aux perspectives de l'OCDE par exemple, ainsi qu'une accélération brutale de la croissance des pays en développement, et notamment des pays à faibles revenus, dès les premiers mois de l'année 1980 et pendant vingt ans.
L'exemple de la région africaine marque bien, là encore, le caractère plus qu'optimiste du scénario normatif: taux de croissance du PIB accru de 44 pour cent, taux de croissance du PIB par habitant accru de 81 pour cent, taux de croissance de la production agricole brute plus que doublé. Pour l'ensemble des pays en développement, ce dernier taux serait près de moitié plus élevé que celui réalisé entre 1963 et 1975.
Ce que nous craignons, c'est que ces hypothèses extrêmes nuisent à la crédibilité de l'étude de la FAO dans le cadre de la préparation de la stratégie internationale de développement et préparent des désillusions cruelles. Nous en demandons donc la révision à la lumière de quelques arguments, quelques références.
En ce qui concerne les taux de croissance du PIB, nous notons que des projections les plus récentes réalisées dans d'autres instances, comme par exemple celles que contenait le dernier rapport de la Banque mondiale sur le développement dans le monde, étaient nettement inférieures aux prévisions et aux chiffres indiqués dans l'étude de la FAO. La Banque mondiale prévoit par exemple, pour l'ensemble des pays en développement, une croissance globale de 5, 2 pour cent pour la période 1975 à 1985, 5, 6 pour cent sur la période 1985 à 1990. Pour l'Afrique, ces taux annuels moyens seraient respectivement 3, 7 et 3, 8 pour cent contre 6, 9 pour cent selon l'étude de la FAO de 1980 à 2000.
Enfin, un certain nombre de faits nous font envisager, et croyez bien que nous en sommes les premiers au regret, que plus qu'une augmentation massive, une stagnation, pour ne pas dire, dans certains cas, une diminution du taux de croissance agricole, pourraient être prévues en l'absence de politique résolument nouvelle concernant la demande et les revenus.
Je veux parler par exemple des futures extensions des cultures pluviales qui devraient se faire sur des terres de qualités inférieures à celles qui sont déjà cultivées, ou encore dans les zones à pluviométrie plus faible.
D'autre part, les mesures prises contre la dégradation des sols ne paraissent pas jusqu'à maintenant avoir été à la mesure de ce phénomène.
En outre, la diffusion des semences à haut rendement qui entre pour une bonne part dans les récents progrès constatés en Asie, repose sur une percée scientifique déjà ancienne qui ne semble pas devoir être immédiatement suivie de progrès aussi considérables dans d'autres domaines de la recherche. v Cette révolution verte poursuivra sans doute ses progrès de façon plus lente au fur et à mesure qu'elle gagnera des zones moins favorables à sa mise en oeuvre.
En conclusion, je voudrais dire que c'est dans un esprit extrêmement constructif que nous avons fait un peu longuement un certain nombre de propositions de modifications assez profondes en vue de rendre l'étude 11 Agriculture: Horizon 200011 aussi utile que possible à chacun des Etats Membres et à l'élaboration de la stratégie internationale du développement.
Nous avons conscience tout à fait du surcroît de travail que représenteront des améliorations que nous proposons, mais nous croyons que la crédibilité et l'utilité réelles de cette étude sont à ce prix.
Pour terminer, en ce qui concerne votre proposition relative à la procédure, il nous faut répondre que compte tenu des améliorations notables que nous suggérons, il nous paraîtrait prématuré de transmettre dès aujourd'hui des conclusions de cette étude à l'Organisation des Nations Unies; il nous semble que la nouvelle version devra être revue au Secrétariat de la FAO, et par une instance appropriée de la FAO avant de faire l'objet d'une telle transmission, car elle n'est encore qu'un projet, comme l'a rappelé hier le Docteur Nory Islam. Mais nous sommes convaincus que de cette étude et de ce débat peut sortir une excellente contribution à la stratégie internationale du développement.
L. SMITH (Barbados): I intend to be very brief on this subject. I would first like to congratulate Dr. Islam and his staff for a reasonably good and interesting document. This delegation realizes that in a document such as this there is a lot of information which must necessarily be left out if it is to be reasonably concise, and we will agree that some of the projections and some of the assessments which have to be made in arriving at the long-term projections can be quesioned in some respects.
One of the points that we want to raise on this document is that some of the projections are based on the increased use of fertilizers in the under-developed countries as well as the developed countries. On page 82, paragraphs 72 and 73, there is an allusion to the use of phosphates in the manufacture of complete fertilizers. I think it would be helpful to our delegation if some more information could be added as to the raw materials' availability and the long-term supply projection of what is really available in the long term. In other words it is possible that the phosphates and potassium may be a diminishing resource and if we are going to project an increased use of these materials, I think it would be helpful if we had some idea of what the residual resources are and what the resources would be in the year 2000. I think this type of data would be extremely helpful, as well as the distribution of these raw materials between the developed and developing countries in the world.
The other aspect of the report that I would like to see a little more information on is the area of fisheries. I don’t have the reference, but in the management aspect of fisheries we would like to have some more information on the levels to which we can increase our harvest of the various species of fish for human consumption, to be sure that these can be sustained over a long-term period, preferably in the form of a map which shows the distribution and the levels by region and various sub-regions. I think this is our main concern and, as I said, it is very difficult for a report like this to have all the details people will want and to make all the assumptions that we necessarily can agree upon. Overall, we feel it is a reasonably good document and interesting.
J. ROWINSKI (Poland): Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We are glad that FAO has made an important contribution to the preparation of the new International Development Strategy for the Third United Nations Development Decade. Among others through its study "Agriculture: Toward 2000", the provisional findings of which have been submitted to the Conference. One of the guiding principles of the study is, or should be, to assist all governments in the elaboration of their development plans and programmes. The second, to give broad ideas of changes in the world agriculture and international agriculture trade, which are necessary if we really have the political will to establish the New International Economic Order and to develop international economic cooperation advantageous for all the countries.
In our opinion this study is a good FAO’s contribution to the preparation of the New International Development Strategy. But it seems to us that in such a study due attention should be given to the analysis of agriculture in all the regions of the world. In the other case its usefulness is limited. It is very easy to make a mistake, considering the possibilities of development of some regions without paying the necessary attention to the problems of other regions.
That is why, in the opinion of the Polish Delegation, the final version of this study should cover all the countries and all their regions. Such a study would be good evidence that FAO remains a univeral organization that serves all countries.
The second point of my intervention is connected with the problem of how many scenarios should be presented in the final version of this study. We share the opinion that the multiplication of scenarios is not very useful. However, the basic assumptions of normative scenario differ so much from the assumptions of trend scenario that it seems appropriate to include in the final version the third scenario that can be called "intermediate". I think the word "intermediate" fully explains our idea.
Mr. Chairman, we fully share the opinion expressed in the summary that it is necessary to rewrite the chapter concerning institutional changes in the light of the results of the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development. In our view this Conference is one of the most important contributions to the New International Economic Order. The Implementation of the Programme of Action approved by the Conference can be one of the decisive steps towards the world of social justice. One additional argument gives us the study under discussion. According to its provisional results, even in the year 2000, the level of agricultural production will be in line with normative scenario-which is a rather optimistic assumption-the level of nutrition of a substantial group of the population in the developing countries will be under the required minimum. The implementation of the Programme of Action, and especially all the actions connected with the more equitable redistribution of national income, can reduce this nutritional gap.
D. C. P. EVANS (United Kingdom): We welcome the publication of C 79/24, as others have already said, and found the introduction by Dr. Islam both valuable and constructive. Our compliments, however, should also go to the authors of this very good report. It is certainly a big improvement as the distinguished delegate of Yugoslavia said yesterday, on the Indicative World Plan of the early 1970’s, although some very optimistic assumptions have been made.
We suggest, sir, that some consideration should be given to energy factors, and that this should be included in the revised version. The exact methodology of the report is not set out in any detail, and it is thus difficult to judge whether some of the projections are indeed realistic. For instance, it is not clear whether the investment implication of the proposed agricultural strategy are compatible with those of simultaneously increased industrial growth. Nor is it clear whether the increase in agricultural growth rates relative to industrial growth rates is compatible with the overall capability of the economy in terms of agricultural relationship between different sectors. In particular, employment growth in agriculture implies that relative income gaps between industry and agriculture will be increased. It is possible that income gaps will be less, that employment growth will be smaller and that migration from rural to urban areas will continue unabated. There is need, therefore, to go further into the soundness of the methodology.
As the Head of my Delegation said in Plenary the United Kingdom would very much like to see AT 2000 considered in greater detail by the FAO's various technological committees in order that they can draw the experts from various parts of the world together to discuss it. constructively.
We agree entirely with the emphasis placed on plant protection in this document. Indeed the losses inflicted on crops by pests, diseases and weeds are fully recognized as one of the most serious obstacles to rapid development of crop yield, especially in the developing world.
It is in recognition of this fact, Mr. Chairman, that the United Kingdom has contributed substantially to FAO’s special fund on the reduction of food losses, and we are gratified to learn in another context that much work has already been done in this field.
It is known generally that losses are serious but the question must arise as to just how seriously the various important crops are affected. And on this point the present information is not sufficient, or sufficiently up to date. Little is known of the relative economic importance and reduction of pests, diseases and weeds, and this information is needed in order to make decisions in crop protection, particularly in developing countries. Basically we need comparable quantative information on such crop losses defined the preventible reduction in the maximum potential yield due to known attack levels of pests, diseases and weeds are of the utmost importance on both national and international levels.
And in conclusion, Mr. Chairman, if the Secretariat so wishes we can give detailed written ccomment to them on the document C 79/24.
CHAIRMAN (interpretation from Arabic): I believe that the Secretariat will certainly welcome the ccomment of the Delegate of the United Kingdom.
H. WILLER (Germany, Fed. Rep. of)(interpretation from German): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, the study before us has been examined very thoroughly by my Government. Despite some serious deficiencies we consider this study to be a valuable contribution towards showing at global level and analyzing as a forecast alternative possibilities of agricultural development. The study shows ways and means of improving the food supply throughout the world. And we consider that this is a very special merit of this study. In this connection my delegation would like, above all, to support the following statements of principle and recommendations.
First, the food problems can be solved in the long term only by increasing food production in a sustained way in the developing countries themselves. We consider that it is quite right to say that it is the small farmer that should be given special consideration. The World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development recently confirmed that above all it is a matter of motivating farmers and
agricultural workers and of giving them the possibility of fully developing their abilities. Therefore, it is important to improve the working conditions in agriculture to promote education and extension, to create the necessary jobs, and to give, through an adequate price level, the necessary incentive to increasing production.
Second, I would like to endorse also the statement of principle in the study stating that in the case of measures to promote agriculture in developing countries labour intensive production methods should be preferred to capital intensive methods.
Third, lastly, my delegation endorses the request that in future greater importance than in the past should be attached to the maintenance of the ecological balance and to the natural productive capacity. This request is becoming more and more urgent the more intensively the existing means of production are used and the more new land is being used.
My Government assesses this study as being a first useful basis for discussion, as I stated earlier. On the one hand the comprehensive quantification of the most important economic data within the scenarios and the consideration of a great number of interdependences produces a maximum of transparency, but on the other hand certain doubts can be expressed as to whether these scenarios are sufficient to be able to develop so far reaching political consequences and stratagies as has sometimes been the case in the document.
The assumptions used in the study for the projections we feel are far too optimistic and a number of uncertainties are attached to them. The calculations and conclusions cannot therefore, be said to be generally valid and binding.
I should like now to go into details and make a few critical ccomments.
It would have been very informative to have first an analysis of the causes which were responsible for the fact that production in many developing countries could not be increased to the extent aimed at. I merely mention the aims of the World Indicative Plan of 1970. Such an assessment would have contributed towards making more realistic estimates for many countries and groups of countries.
As far as the formulation of a new and realistic strategy is concerned, it would be very useful to know which region and country specific influences and bottlenecks are primarily the cause for the lagging behind of agricultural production in certain parts of the world. Above all one should find an answer to the question of whether the causes were mainly the negative consequences of war, crop failures, insufficient adaptability and the general shortage of resources which have led to the partly unsatisfactory agricultural development of many third world countries.
A further lack of this study is that the new world political and economic policy challenges have not been taken sufficiently into account. Here I am thinking of the limitations of the general economic development, which arise: for both developed and developing countries because of a shortage of fossile energy and other important raw materials as well as from the protection of our natural resources. Last but not least, for this reason the development hypothesis of the normative scenario is based too much on wishful thinking rather than on realistic assessment.
This statement is true of the too highly set growth rates of GDP and also of the too high assessment of food demand and the too ambitious aims with regard to increasing food production.
The World Bank in its latest report of 1979 is its forecast on the next decade comes to substantially lower general growth rates than the growth rates we have in this study.
Since the changed general economic conditions have such a great importance for the further development process of world agriculture special attention should be paid to them. In the eyes of my delegation the following items should be looked at in greater detail: First, the consequences of a long-term rise in prices of fossile energy sources on economic growth and food production in various groups of developing countries.
Secondly, the repercussions of a lower economic growth in industrialized countries on the requested integration of developing countries into the world economy.
Thirdly, the consequences of an increate in the differences in the standard of living between developing countries on the general development strategy.
The hypothetic calculations of this Study concerning the expansion of world trade in agricultural products are undoubtedly very instructive. We are glad that the Study also points out clearly that developing countries have responsibilities of their own in their export policies. Furthermore, it is quite right that the request with regard to improving the market access for developing countries is addressed not only to Western industrialized countries but also to all other states. I believe that the reciprocal
relationship between liberal world trade and aid to developing countries is worth being studied in greater detail within the framework of AT 2000. I believe also that the figures given in connexion with the external aid calculated to be necessary require further scrutiny and more explanation.
In order to avoid any misunderstanding in the light of these critical comments, I should like in conclusion to say the following: my Government shares the views expressed in the conclusions of the document, stating that the only way to solve the threatening food deficits lies in improving the general infrastructure, the agricultural structure and production technology.
My Government is naturally aware of the fact that not all the problems of developing countries related to agriculture can be solved through a faster production growth rate alone It is equally important to improve education and training, to create jobs and to promote purchasing power in developing countries.
Finally, I should like to make a statement in connexion with further proceedings.
My delegation agrees with the recommendation put forward by the French delegation, that the study should be thoroughly revised in "the light of the critical comments made here.
That is why the report before us should not lead one to draw any hasty conclusions.
The study should not be transmitted to other, international, organizations in its present form.
MRS. S. SYAHRUDDIN (Indonesia): Mr. Chairman, before I begin my statement may I greet you, Dr. Islam and all Moslem delegates in this room with a belated "Happy New Year". Yesterday was the first of Muharram 1400 H.
My delegation would like to congratulate the Director-General and the staff on producing such a comprehensive report on the provisional results of a study of perspectives and policy issues of world agriculture up to the year 2000, with particular reference to developing countries (C 79/24) • In general we support the major findings and recommendations contained in the report.
My delegation would like to underline the grave problems of hunger facing towards the year 2000. The agricultural sector must raise investments substantially to accelerate production in order to solve world hunger problems. The agriculture of the future in the developing countries must become more scientific, as has been the case with the agriculture of the developed countries.
The clear message of the quantitative analysis of AT 2000 is that a significant acceleration in agricultural output will not be achieved without a huge increase in the use of material inputs from outside the agricultural sector, both capital and current. Part of the requirement must come in the form of external assistance. The report estimates that annual requirements, as compared with the actual 1977 commitments of $4. 3 billion, will rise to $ 12. 7 billion in 1999 and $16. 8 billion in 2000.
My delegation would like to submit that AT 2000 should be subjected to expert assessment in regional workshops, my delegation would like to propose that the document be adopted as an official document for background to advisory deliberations on the New International Development Strategy.
Before concluding my statement I should like to express appreciation and +hanks for the brief introduction of this report made by Dr. Islam.
CHAIRMAN: (interpretation from Arabic): I wish to thank the representative of Indonesia for her greetings to me, to the other Moslem participants and to all the world on the occasion of the new Hi jera year.
R„C. SOOD (India): "Agriculture: Toward 2000"is a quantitative model of world economy conducted by the United Nations for an improtant sector. AT 2000 takes growth targets for the developing countries as given broadly by the International Development Strategy and works out the implications of the Strategy for the agricultural sector. We would like to congratulate FAO on the very good work it has done. AT 2000 has brought out that agricultural growth rates of around 2. 8 percent compound per annum in the period 1980 to 2000, as against 2. 6 percent compound per annum in 1963-1975, are a necessary precondition of non-inflationary development in the developing world.
Such agricultural growth will require gross investment in agriculture rising at a substantial rate to US $57 billion in 1990 and $78 billion by 2000 in the developing countries. External assistance to the agricultural sector will have to rise at a much higher rate than in the past from the level of commitments of $4. 3 billion in 1977 to $12. 7 billion in 1990 and $16. 5 billion in 2000, and, in the short run, food aid on a substantial basis will also have to be provided.
The Indian delegation is in broad agreement with the Report and its conclusions but would like to make a few comments in this regard.
The main message of Agriculture; Toward 2000 that agriculture has to be given priority, is one that is accepted in India's own development plans, and is unexceptionable. It may be mentioned that we are following an analogous methodology for agricultural productions, crop by crop, in our own plans. The Indian development strategy gives great priority to rural development policies. This implies that in addition to crop husbandry, emphasis is laid on development of other rural based sectors, for example, livestock, fisheries and forestries, as well as institutional matters like credit, development of cooperative institutions in input supply, marketing, credit distribution, etc. and also special machineries for development of small farmers and landless labourers.
It is suggested that these aspects should be covered more fully in the final report through evaluation of qualitative material available and through special case studies which may be conducted for this purpose.
The Indian delegation would like to endorse the general FAO stand that agricultural development is not a costless affair and that it involves significant investments within the poor countries, more foreign resources, and also adjustments on the trade side. We on the other hand feel that the FAO projections are on the conservative side and are in fact much lower than the targets which have been set in the Indian development plans in perspective.
We cannot accept the target that the growth rate for the cereal sector should be 2. 9 percent for the Far East for the period 1980 to 2000. This target is much lower than the requirements of the Indian colony, given its objectives of economic development and poverty removal. We feel that the input targets in the FAO report for the Far East region are also on the low side. In the period 1980 to 2000, the area equipped for irrigation is projected to go up only by "2 million hectares for the region as a whole, while the Indian development plans are already postulating a growth higher than this magnitude in a ten year period. In addition, fertilizer, pesticides and extension targets of the FAO are considered under estimates. In most cases, they imply lower growth rates than those recorded in the Indian agricultural economy in the past.
We would like to press the FAO to work out more realistically the production potential in the Far Eastern region, to provide for higher growth rates and as a consequence of this both the investment requirements and the foreign aid requirements which have been indicated should be higher than those given in the report.
We hope that these suggestions will be taken into account in finalizing the report. The Indian delegation considers the FAO exercise in regard to extremely valuable effort and is in broad agreement with it. We would like to propose that the Conference should request the Director-General of FAO to transmit to the United Nations General Assembly and the Preparatory Committee for the formulation of the New International Development Strategy its report on this item and the salient findings of this Study. It should be emphasized in particular that adequate prominence should be given to food and agriculture in the development of the New International Development Strategy for the 1980’s and, provided necessary measures are adopted, it should be feasible to accelerate the rate of growth in agriculture to an average of 4 percent during the 1980's and to a slightly lower rate in the 1990's so that average growth to the end of +he Century works out at 3. 8 percent per year. Self-sufficiency in food, nationally and collectively on the part of developing countries, is conditional upon ?n accelerated domestic production on those lines. An acceleration in the rate of growth to the extent indicated above would require sustained and concerted effort, both national and international. It would necessitate greatly increased investment in agriculture and far reaching changes in rural institutions, fiscal and pricing policies, and incentives for farmers.
It should be brought out that as projected in the report annual investment in agriculture, excluding transport and processing, in the developing countires, would have to rise by 1990 to $57 billion in 1975 prices, in order to meet the production target and then $78 billion by 2000. This target would require an increase in external assistance from the $4. 3 billion committed in 1977 to a minimum of
$12. 7 billion at 1975 prices by 1990, and $16. 8 billion by the year 2000.
A growth of 4. 3 percent a year in the volume of agricultural production for export of the developing countries during the 1980’s is considered feasible by FAO. This could rise to S percent in the 1990's. However, it is necessary for protectionism in the developed countires to be greatly reduced for this production potential actually to materialize as exports.
While agreeing with the overall findings of Agriculture: Towards 2000" we would like to conclude by expressing our deep concern that, as per these findings, the countries less endowered with agricultural resources would still have to import agricultural products, which may have to rise from SO million tons in the mid 1970's to 115 million tons even by the year 2000. These are realistic findings based on normal periods or more ambitious, normative projections. And yet it appears difficult to accept that even after another twenty years, there will be no hope for the hungry world.
We would like to submit that it would be unreasonable on our part to accept the proposition that eradication of hunger will not be possible even after twenty years. Another United Nations body, the World Health Organization, has successfully implemented campaigns for the eradication of scourges like malaria and smallpox. Eradication of hunger with all the potential which the good earth has to offer, is perhaps not a bigger challenge in any way.
Agricultural production will in the ultimate analysis depend on the effort that millions of small farmers can make in better utilization of their little patches of land, and a key requirement for a successful strategy for eradication of hunger is an effective mechanism for transfer of know-how to the millions of farmers. The delegation of the Federal Republic of Germany has broadly referred to this. We have made a brief reference to this in a different context in Commission II.
We would like to make a very specific suggestion for consideration by the House that, as in India's own Five Year Plan, at least 40 percent of all development investments should be earmarked for agriculture and allied programmes and at least 50 percent of the funds available for the development of agriculture should, at least in the next ten to twenty years, be earmarked for strengthening of extension organizations, especially in the most seriously affected countires. Earmarking of funds at these levels should apply to all sources, including the budgets of the nations concerned, the FAO budget for regular and field programmes UNDP funds, multilateral institutional finances from organizations like the World Bank and the regional banks and other multilateral as well as bilateral sources.
We have already suggested in another context that it would be desirable in particular that FAO should launch a special action programme for this purpose. FAO's own Investment Centre should serve as a catalyst for these investments.
We feel fully confident that this kind of effort would add a wholely different dimension to agriculture in the year 2000 or even very much earlier.
Exhortations, appeals and resolutions are all very well. There is in the ultimate analysis only one effective way in which we can win the battle against hunger-we can start digging. Investments made in digging better will be our best bet.
S. HANPONGPANDH (Thailand): I join with other delegations in congratulating Dr. Nural Islam and his staff for the very comprehensive work that appears in document C 79. 4. I agree with some earlier speakers that there are several points in the Study which are vulnerable to criticism and require improvement. This is a problem common to all studies of similar nature.
We however, believe that with better information and cooperation from all countries concerned, the Study can be improved to a level worthy of it.
We in Thailand are also dealing very seriously with this line of analytical work mainly for the benefit of the overall national agricultural development planning. At the international level and under the support of FAO and UNDP, we are now working closely with our ASEAN brothers in the regional study on the Supply and Demand for Food and Other Strategic Agricultural Productions. Besides, the ASEAN countries are also in the process of setting up the ASEAN Agricultural Development Planning Centre to
be stationed in Thailand. This Centre will in the future serve as the key institution paying ways for joint agricultural development planning for the ASEAN region as a whole. We believe that the undertaking of such a comprehensive agricultural development planning study is vital to all agricultural based nations. Studies at national level, when consolidated into regional and finally global levels, would shed more light on how conflicts in agricultural policies of different countries could be slackened. With such a belief in mind, we would again like to compliment the Secretariat for their great effort in producing such a valuable study. We would also like to urge FAO to seek ways and means of strengthening the role of such analytical study where it has not yet received enough concern.
Q. WEST (United States of America): In spite of many problems throughout the world, there is much to be thankful for, and it is in that spirit that the United States is celebrating its national holiday of Thanksgiveing today. I just wanted to mention that fact.
We also might say that we are thankful for the fine work that Professor Islam and his staff have done on this Agriculture: Toward 2000. I appreciate being able to join other delegations in making comments today on that study.
The discussion takes me back some ten years ago, when we were discussing a similar programme, FAO's Indicative World Plan. I noted just a minute ago that Mr. Ed. West was there. I am the other Fr. West. Mr. Ed. West also participated in those discussions ten years ago, but from a little different basis. I am sure that he has more good words to say about Agriculture: Toward 2000-than he had as the United Kingdom Representative, during the time we were discussing the Indicative World Plan.
I was a supporter of the Indicative World Plan. I am a firm believer in the value of these exercises when done properly. I have been closely involved in long-term projection of world demand, supply and trade of food, done by USDA for almost two decades, going back to our own World Food Budget of the early 1960s.
We worked closely with FAO on the Indicative World Plan and the projections for the 1974 World Food Conference.
Such projection activities as AT 2000 enable us to marshall all the information available to look ahead at what may happen in the future if certain assumptions are realized, or what must happen if certain goals are to be met.
We must, in analyzing AT 2000, reflect carefully on the purpose of this effort As the Director-General has pointed out in his foreward statement, AT 2000 is built around the desired rates of growl h of overall income, in keeping with the aspirations of a New International Economic Order. Therefore it implies the necessary increase in domestic agricultural production, in keeping with the goal of substantially increased national and collective self-reliance in the developing world In our discussions, particularly of the normative scenario, we must keep in mind what the purpose of tins effort was.
Also, as Dr. Islam emphasized in the introduction to the study, the findings are indicative, as repeated by other delegations. It is stated in the introduction to the study that I am reading from the 4th paragraph of the introduction:
“…no attempt has been made to forecast or to predict what is likely to happen by the end of the century. What is undertaken in the study is an analysis of the implications for agriculture if it is to meet the demands arising from a desirable and relatively high rate of overall growth of income as is postulated in the normative scenario. …The possibility of their realisation depends on appropriate changes in national policies and institutions as well as on increased investments which have been analyzed in the report
I will not try to analyze the methodology nor the quantitative outcome of the study. This should be the role of a panel of experts who are currently working on similar studies. I will mention a few concerns we have. These concerns would not affect the general conclusion of the study is generally in the direction, if not in the magnitude, of those studies made by the USDA and other organisations, such as the International Policy Research Institute Basically, the conclusion is that if the food situation is to be substantially improved by the end of the century, action must be taken both to accelerate production and to raise demand. The possibility of these actions being effected depends on appropriate changes in national policies and institutions, as well as increased investment.
As I said, I will just touch on a few points. Only two scenarios are given in the study. The trend scenario is supposedly what would happen if recent trends continue. I am going to emphasize this because, supposedly in any scenario in which you give assumptions, it depends on the validity of the assumption as to the outcome of the projections. With a trends projection, supposedly if past trends were not changed this would be the outcome. However, there were some changes in the trends projections that give us some concern. These have been indicated by Yugoslavia and France. Information is available to FAO which gives the trend from 1363 to 1975 but it was adjusted upward to give a base of 1980 to reflect "more recent performance". If we look at the annual increase in per caput GIDP it would move upward from a 3. 2 annual increase to 4. 1 or a 28 percent increase. If we express the demand as in total agricultural demand it would move up from 2. 0 to 3. 2 percent annually, or a 10 percent increase. The agricultural production trend was only adjusted upwards from 2. 6 to 2. 7 percent, or an increase of 3. 8 percent. So we had a difference of adjustment upwards of 10 percent of the demand compared to less than 4 percent in the supply. This would give an expected imbalance in the supply and demand so that it would automatically be expected to come up with an imbalance. For example, cereal imports by developing countries of 180 million tons by the end of the century; meat imports up 10 times to 14 million tons; and the commodity trade balance going from a positive 86 billion to a negative 36 billion.
This judgment adjustment in trends does give an unrealistic picture of the recent trend scenario. We need to know more of the basis for that adjustment.
On another point there is no climatic variability introduced into the study. While climatologists differ among themselves as to whether the earth may be entering a warning or a cooling cycle, they are largely in agreement that the last 30 years or so were abnormally stable in terms of climate and hence were unusually favourable to agriculture. There could be greater variability in the years ahead than reflected in recent trends. A poor weather scenario would be useful to identify problems resulting from serious production shortfalls due to weather.
A third point is that projections are based on constant prices so there is no built-in price responsiveness. This brings difficulty in adjusting supply and demand and requires such statements as that found at the bottom of page 20 of the report. The last part of paragraph 22 states:
"Naturally, there is no reason why in this scenario production extrapolations should correspond with demand projects, especially where in determining projected 1 trend’ production levels the growth of demand was not taken into account. Confronting independent demand and production projections, therefore, will reveal inconsistencies and problems. Apart from being a 'gaps identifying' exercise, the trend scenario serves as a point of departure for the main scenario of the study, the normative scenario. "
I think-and I am sure that many of the delegations agree-that this trend scenario should be more than just an identification of gaps and a point of departure for the normative because it is supposed to be what would happen if things continue as in the past.
There is another statement on page 18 which indicates the problem of not being able to introduce price:
"Some downward demand adjustments were introduced explicitly for livestock products, where the constant price assumption or other elements of the projection methodology implied import magnitudes in some developing countries which were obviously unrealistic. "
Now with the normative scenario which is, of course, the significant scenario for this study, the assumptions are very optimistic, as many delegations have pointed out. We share some of the concern, in particular some expressed by France, Norway and others on the assumptions and conclusions.
Other points that have been mentioned include the lack of proper energy considerations raised by the United Kingdom; the point raised by Germany on the problem of not taking into account fully the environmental considerations. But in connexion with the high growth rates which are assumed, we do welcome Professor Islam's suggestion that an intermediate demand scenario could be introduced, a proposal which was also strongly endorsed by Poland.
But, however, as I said at the beginning, the study is designed to indicate the needed changes which must take place if we are to achieve freedom from hunger and we should compliment FAO on the effort it has made in that direction. I want to point out that of particular value is the initiative of more detailed work on the quantification of agricultural investments and inputs needed to meet the production targets of the year 2000.
We believe that AT 2000 can become a useful work. It does need more work and we believe that more work should be done on it before it is submitted to the General Assembly, and we support France and Germany on that point.
In conclusion, I believe that AT 2000 needs a global-production-consumption-trade-constraints model to ensure some consistency in the projections, to introduce price responsiveness into the system, and to allow for the performance of policy impact analyses. All these represent a serious weakness in the present exercise. The AT 2000 volute is provisional and it is stated that it is subject to revisions after this Conference. However, without a formal global model with a qui ok reply capability, such revisions are likely to be rather chaotic, inconsistent, and incomplete and, therefore, subject to some doubts. The World Food, Agriculture Resources model at present being developed in USDA, built on the experience acquired in our World Grain model which we are developing could easily be adapted for FAO to use when we have completed it. Moreover, the combined resources of the two organisations, USDA and the FAO technical personnel and data banks could shorten the model preparation and testing time. We would welcome such cooperation.
Mne N. LOSEBY-VENZI (Italy): I am grateful to you for this opportunity of commenting on the document "Agriculture: Toward 2000" The study contained in it demonstrates considerable courage in confronting the task of outlining the directions along which the agricultural sector may develop in the next 20 years. It should provide a valuable point of departure for international cooperation in planning for the future. The challenge facing us is twofold. Ws must create conditions which permit an adequate increase in agricultural production and at the same time ensure that supplies reach those sectors of the world's population which are at present undernourished and which are in danger of remaining so in the future. The significance of the problem in terms of human suffering needs no further elaboration.
The document before us shows dearly that demands placed on the capacity of-the world's agriculture to meet the needs of a rising population are alarming. The painstaking analysis of possible solutions which it contains therefore deserves careful consideration. I will leave aside comments on methodology and on the quantification of prospective growth rates, which have already been dealt with in some detail by other speakers. I should like instead to comment on two particular aspects of the analysis which appear particularly welcome and which will have further elaboration in the revised edition.
The first is the emphasis placed on the need for pricing policies which provide adequate returns, in particular to small-scale farmers. This appears to be a prerequisite for attracting private savings into agricultural investment.
The second is the consideration given to the rate at which machinery should substitute for labour. Given the scarcity of funds for investment it would seem essential that those available should not be used in such a way as to increase the already difficult problems of unemployment and under-employment. An investigation of the seasonal distribution of agricultural employment, as proposed in Chapter 8 of the document, nay help to increase our understanding of the nature of the problem of under-employment. Solutions could perhaps then be identifies which would permit a more even seasonal distribution of labour requirements, and where seasonal bottlenecks in labour supply emerge mechanisation programmes could perhaps be designed in such a way as to relieve them.
Finally I should like to add a comment on-the problems confronting agriculture in developed countries. I feel that the view taken in the document may be too optimistio. In my country
the increased prosperity of the agricultural sector has been hard-won and is still relatively fragile Its continuation undoubtedly depends on the overall wellbeing of the economy as a whole. This is endangered by the increased cost of essential supplies of energy which form a major part of our import bill. Food imports likewise form a substantial part of our balance of payments problems. In spite of this, many products exported by developing countries which compete directly with domestic production are allowed relatively free access to our markets. It will be easier for us to maintain such a position and further to extend it if we are able to operate in an international environment where further strains on the non-agricultural component of our import bill could he avoided. In this respect I should like to mention, as other speakers have done, the necessity for considering the impact of energy problems on the development of all aspects of agriculture-both production and trade.
In conclusion, I should like to assure you of our support for the efforts being made by FAO to deal with the difficult and vitally important problem of ensuring an adequate level of food production and consumption for present and future generations.
H. FARAJ (Maroc): Le chef de la délégation du Maroc, Ministre de l'Agriculture et de la Réforme, ayant fait connaître le point de vue de mon pays sur les orientations générales proposées dans le document "Agriculture, Horizon 2000", je ne crois pas utile de le rappeler ici étant donné le temps imparti à nos débats. Je me limiterai à évoquer quelques observations sur un certain nombre de points.
Le premier concerne l'approche méthodologique, c'est-à-dire le chapitre 2. La question que tout le monde se pose est de connaître les probabilités de réussite et les chances de réalisation d'un scénario normatif qui représente une rupture décisive avec les tendances passées. A ce titre, des questions doivent être posées. La première concerne les potentialités de production. Il ne semble pas que dans l'évaluation des rendements des différentes combinaisons-terres, eau, niveau d'aménagement-on ait tenu compte ou jugé de l'impact probable d'un progrès prévisionnel de la recherche agronomique, notamment dans les domaines de la génétique. Ce choix peut s'expliquer par le fait d'une amélioration technologique, cequi demande en agriculture un temps assez long pour M re diffusé et appliqué systématiquement dans un grand nombre d'exploitations agricoles. Il peut s'expliquer également par un souci de réalisme et de prudence. Néanmoins, ce point mériterait à notre avis d'être clairement exprimé.
La seconde question concerne les possibilités d'application des cinq principes et objectifs du Nouvel ordre économique international, tels qu'ils sont enumeres aux pages 23 et 24 de la version française du document C 79/24 Il serait peut-être souhaitable d'évaluer, même de manière grossière, grâce à un test de sensibilité, les répercussions d'une application incomplète d'un ou plusieurs de ces principes. Ces calculs auraient le mérite de faire mieux apprécier le poids des décisions politiques définies par les cinq principes, et de mieux situer les responsabilités. Autrement dit, si la croissance du PIB pour 1980/90 ne suit pas les taux prévus, ou si les pays en développement les plus pauvres n'arrivent pas à doubler le PIB par habitant, tel que cela est prévu, ou encore si les politiques commerciales des pays développés ne suivent pas l'évolution prévue, qu'en sera-t-il de nos projections ?
La troisième question concerne un point plus précis qui est le choix des technologies en vue d'accroître les rendements. Il s'agit du chapitre 4, page 63 du texte français du même document. Le principe énoncé dans ce chapitre et les niveaux technologiques doivent être accordés aux potentialités de production des zones où ils sont appliqués, c'est-à-dire que l'on doit consacrer le maximum d'intrants aux zones irriguées, utiliser les variétés végétales de productivité moyenne exigeantes dans les zones pluviales, ïhfin, accorder un minimum de facteurs de production aux zones marginales. Cette répartition des niveaux technologiques mériterait à notre avis certains amendements, certaines corrections; la premièreest que dans le cas où la technologie a été élaborée dans le pays même, et ce point est fondamental, une partie des acquits technologiques peut être transférée à partir des zones irriguées vers des zones moins favorables. Des variétés à haut rendement de blé tendre, obtenues par combinaison de variétés étrangères et de variétés locales, peuvent être indifféremment semées dans les zones irriguées ou dans les zones d'agriculture pluviale, à pluviométrie favorable. "Bi même dans ces dernières zones, elles marquent un net avantage sur les variétés traditionnelles. Ce transfert a été opéré dans mon pays mais il n'est pas toujours possible avec les variétés importées.
Le second correctif à apporter, suivant les zones, aux technologies est que l'on est en droit de se demander dans quelle mesure les zones d'agriculture pluviale, dites moins favorables, doivent être laissées à elles-mêmes, ainsi que le laisse supposer le document. Il est évident que les efforts de recherche ont été d'une manière générale consacrés aux zones les plus favorables. Il est probable que si l'on consacre aux zones d'agriculture pluviale toute l'attention qu'elles méritent en matière de recherche et d'aménagement, un accroissement sigiificatif des rendements pourrait être obtenu. Ce regain d'attention est d'autant plus important qu'il concerne 12 pour cent des terres pour les zones de faibles précipitations et 36 pour cent des terres pour les zones dites critiques, soit respectivement 219 millions d'hectares et 646 millions d'hectares. Autrement dit, tout en sachant parfaitement
que la productivité des sones pluviales n'atteindra pas celle des zones plus favorables, c'est-à-dire des zones irriguées, il est important à notre avis de souligner l'impact que peut avoir sur la production totale une augmentation de rendement, si faible soit-elle, obtenue dans les zones marginales, et cela d'autant plus que ce sont dans ces zones que vivent les agriculteurs les plus démunis, in faisant un effort pour ces zones l'on pourra, de manière concrète et tangible, opérer une amélioration des revenus des couches paysannes les plus défavorisées.
W. Z. B. A. RAHMAN (Malaysia): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Malaysia is impressed by the Document C 79/24 which we have before us for this topic of the agenda. By its very nature the preparation of this document "Agriculture Toward 2000" or in short AT 2000, must have demanded a considerable quantam of input in terms of time and effort from the professional staff of FAO. For this at least, if not for anything else in connection with this agenda topic, FAO and its professional staff must be given due credit and Maalysia would like to place on record her appreciation on the contribution of FAO to the formulation of the New International Development Strategy by the United Nations for the Third Development Decade.
Since Malaysia is only a small country our interest is naturally restricted, more often than not to a regional or a sub-regional basis. For this reason Malaysia is keen to see an analysis of the implications of AT 2000 prepared for Asia and the Pacific Region, which I believe is the new name for our Region as from today.
Equally, Mr. Chairman, Malaysia is of the opinion that demand for sub-regional aspects and policy issues could be derived from AT 2000 for the benefit of the developing countries affected. Indeed, the results of the regional and sub-regional studies could be a valuable aid to developing countries in the preparation of their own national and agricultural plans for the next decade as a corollary to the suggestions above.
Malaysia is of the opinion that the document to AT 2000 would be greatly improved if a technical appendix is prepared and included as part of the document. This technical appendix should prepare details of the general approach and methodology that was adopted by FAO in preparing the AT 2000. In particular the methodology of quantitive analysis of AT 2000 if made available to local staff of developing countries who are responsible for the preparation of national plans.
In the final analysis it is these trained staff who would be intimately involved in their national agriculture development plans. They need to know, in order that they may amend or adjust the methodology to make allowances for national differences.
Mr. Chairman, Malaysia would like to see the chapter on Employment in the document AT 2000 developed further. Besides the need for agricultural labour for production, there exists also a need for agricultural labour for planning, for research, for extension and for development. An analysis should be made on the quantum of trained agricultural labour required for raising food and agricultural production in the next decade. Consequent to this suggestion is the need for the type and level of training for the agricultural staff required to implement the development plans. Otherwise these plans would remain as plans on paper only.
J. MAHMUL (Bangladesh): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, in the year 1952 The Economist described the FAO as "a permanent institution devoted to proving that there is not enough food to go around". It is certainly no longer true of this Organisation and AT 2000 clearly shows us that there can be enough but whether it will go around, that is the question confronting us today.
My delegation would like to congratulate Dr. Nurul Islam and his colleagues for this excellent study, and we have found the document most useful and it has brought all of us down from the rhetorics of hunger and abundance back to the realities of facts and figures, and we support very strongly the suggestion that FAO and the Conference should transmit the final version of AT 2000 to the United Nations Assembly and the United Nations Preparatory Committee in the New International Development Strategy along with a summary of its findings.
In the year 2000 Bangladesh will probably have a population of 120 million cramped in an area of 55, 000 square miles, yet the possibilities of vertical expansion in agriculture are enormous at least when judged from a purely technological perspective as achieved in India. The Delegate of India told us that the cereal growth rate and irrigation target in the document has been underestimated.
However, my Delegation is fully aware that the rate at which a modem agricultural system can he evolved by IDC's depends a good deal on the social, political and economic milieu. Before the Least Developed Countries embark upon their promised road to abundance there is an urgent need to take a hard look at our own policies. Chapter 11 of the document refers to price policies. Indeed, we feel that because of incorrect price signals that are being given to farmers, allocative, production and consumption potentials are not being realized. My Delegation suggests that a quantitative international comparison of price distrotions in agriculture, and their effects be made and Least Developed Countries be shown the real effects in terms of change in production, consumption and employment.
The net social losses as a percentage of Gross National Product suffered by Least Developed Countries due to adopted policies will become obvious. We admit that immediate political compulsions often overtake objectivity in determiming agriculture price policies in some of our countries.
Mr. Chairman, my Delegation has noted with keen interest the points raised by the Delegate from Norway on behalf of Nordic countries. We generally endorse the views and agree that disaggregation and, if possible, separate exercises for country studies would greatly help us. However, regarding his reference to the WCARKD we find that Chapter 12, page 171, was written before WCARKD and in the very first paragraph it stipulated that "the final report of AT 2000 will reflect the outcome of this Conference".
Regarding the inclusion of insight of China, an analysis of the reports submitted and circulated by the various FAO study groups on China appears to be desirable.
Regarding Technology, my Delegation hopes that in the coming decade an increasing number of scaleneutral technologies will be evolved which will benefit all of us more or less equally. Perhaps by the year 2000 biochemical and agricultural research will provide us with Nutrient Film Technique, Single Cell Protein and the like. Solar energy will by then, probably, become less expensive than conventional resources. However, we entirely agree with the delegate from Norway that the developing countries will remain dependent on the developed countries for transfer of these technologies. Without such transfers the consequences will be disastrous for energy starved Least Developed Countries.
The impact of science and technology as rightly pointed out by the Delegate from China will be more evident in the field of agriculture in these coming decades. At the same time the need for counteracting the disequalizing effects of newtechnology in the LDC's will always be there, unfortunately effectual instruments for attaining equity do not yet exist.
My Delegation agrees with the Delegate of Yugoslavia in considering Irrigation as one of the key issues. In this regard, chapter 5, table 5. 2, roay in the final report contain ground water irrigation as a separate item. In some of the LDC's, like Bangladesh, micro-irrigation projects like TW's and hold great promise because they are quick yielding with low gestation period. Also, while augmenting river resources for surface water irrigation the needs of the lower riparian will have to be looked into carefully in the coming decades.
Mr. Chairman, the document stresses the need for an efficient input delivery system, but unless we have an efficient input acceptance mechanism our efforts will come to nothing. This aspect has been very emphasized and on page 225 "the document expands on the compelling requirement for "unlocking the Potential of Human Capital". Perhaps we have to evolve for 2000 a development strategy centred around man, as distinct from that centred around materials. In such a strategy our man in the rural setting becomes the central issue and human resource development the key instrument.
Also, my delegation hopes that a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the various Integrated Rural Development Programmes undertaken in the LDC's will be made available in the final document undertaken by FAO which will enable them to devise various strategies for making such programmes better geared for agricultural development.
In the final analysis, in our road to the year 2000, we find there are two very important and very wide gaps. One is the Implementation Gap and the other Resources gap. For the Implementation gap those of us who belong to the Third World are primarily responsible. Consideration of the long term issues should not dimisish our concern for the more immediate need to bridge the gap between plan formulation and implementation. This gap is as wide as the Resource gap. To bridge the Resource gap we shall continue to depend on external aid in many respects.
My delegation has an apprehension that possibly developed countries, disillusioned by the failure of their policies to achieve favorable socio-economic and sometimes political results in the underdeveloped would will become increasingly withdrawn. We hope that such an apprehension is unfounded
and ultimately they will take a logical leap forward in extending their moral concern to other members of the international community by establishing a permanent machinery for the redistribution of world incomes by the year 2000. There is a Mexican saying, "a full belly, a happy heart. An empty stomach, be careful
S. A. PARVEZ (Pakistan): The Pakistan delegation extends its compliments to Br. Islam for the able and lucid manner in which this item was introduced for discussion. It gives us pleasure to be associated with other delegations in this regard.
We also express our apprecaition for the considerable amount of work that went into the preparation of the study, "Agriculture: Toward 2000", and for the timely completion of the provisional report. We look forward to the finalization of the study. We consider that the detailed analysis of the agriculture of the developing countries places FAO in a good position to make an important contribution to the New International Economic Order.
We note that the analysis of agriculture in the study is based on relatively high economic growth assumptions for the developing countries: 7. 3 percent in the 1980s and 8 percent in the 1990s, which emerged during consultations in the United Nations system for the preparation of the International Development Strategy. We are gratified that those assumption reflect, inter alia, the desire of the international community to set targets leading to the doubling of per capita incomes of the lowest income countries over the next twenty years.
The main message of the study is that the developing countries could make substantial progress in their agriculture. Consider, for example, the possibility of more than doubling of total output between 1980 and 2000, or an increase in cereals output by over 400 million tons. In terms of growth rates this would mean an acceleration of gross output growth to 4 percent during the 1980s and 3. 7 percent during the 1990s.
The study makes the point that for these improvements in production performance to materialize the pace of modernisation of agriculture must be speeded up. Although arable land expansion would be an important factor in this process, the mainstay of accelerated production growth would need to be improved productivity; but such productivity gains will not come about without massive doses of investment in irrigation and in the use of modern inputs. For irrigation, the study indicates a needed addition of around 55 million hectares to the 100 million hectares already existing. The investment estimates of the study give an idea of the magnitude of the efforts required to bring developing countries’ agriculture on the path to accelerated growth. Annual gross agricultural investment would need to double over the twenty-year period, from $39 billion in 1980 to $57 billion in 1990 and $78 billion by the year 2000. If one were to include supporting investments in transport and first-stage processing, the requirements would be even higher. $52 billion, $78 billion and $107 billion respectively. The study rightly emphasizes that by far the major part of the effort should be borne by developing countries. Foreign assistance requirements for investing financing purposes would be $10. 3 billion in 1990 and $13. 3 billion in 2000.
However, foreign assistance for industrial financing is not the only area in which continued and intensified international cooperation would be needed. We note with alarm, though with appreciation for its realism, that the developing countries would continue to be increasingly dependent on cereal imports from the developed countries. Cereal import requirements of the net deficit countries among the 90 countries of the study would grow from 47 million tons in the mid-708 to 79 million tons in 1990 and 134 million tons by the year 2000, even under the normative scenario. The situation would be much worse under the trend scenario, the corresponding figures being 114 million and 177 million tons for 1990 and 2000 respectively.
It is in this spirit that we should view the assessment of the report that an increasing volume of agricultural exports could be forthcoming from the developing countries at growth rates of 4. 3 percent and 5 percent per annum over the 1980s and 1990s respectively, but for such potential to materialize as actual exports, substantial liberalization in import and agricultural protection regimes will be necessary, particularly in the developed countries. Such exporte, and also exports of manufactures, should be viewed as a means of payment for increasing imports of cereals, otherwise the foreign debt burden of the developing countries would continue to mount at an alarming rate. Unless substantial progress is made in this area, the developing countries could very well see their positive net agricultural trade balance turn into a deficit in the not too distant future.
We note with alarm that even under the accelerated overall and agricultural growth of the normative scenario the problem of hunger and malnutrition in the countries studied is not going to disappear even by the end of the century. True, the problem could be reduced significantly in relative terms-the
proportion of population undernourished falling from 22 percent to 12 percent in 1990 and 7 percent in 2000-but the absolute numbers involved could still remain substantial at nearly a quarter of a billion people by the end of the century. Naturally the situation could turn out to be much worse if the optimistic assessments of the normative scenario failed to matérialise.
The study rightly emphasizes that access by the poor and undernourished to food supplies is an indispensible condition for dealing effectively with this problem. As the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development Programme of Action emphasizes, growth is not enough. We must pursue policies for institutional change and a more equal distribution of assets and income• Moreover, we need to be aware that the solution of the problem of rural poverty is not to be sought in agriculture alone. Non-agriculture activities in the rural areas would need to play an increasingly important role in this respect.
In the context of the above estimates of food deficits and numbers of undernourished, the food aid estimates of the Study are rather modest. Provision of food aid at the above rates would not unduly strain donor capabilities.
In conclusioni we would like to mention and support the conclusions put forward by the delegation of Ghana. We commend the work and effort that have gone into the preparation of AT 2000 and we look forward to its completion. We regard it as a useful contribution to the effort towards the attainment of the New International Economic Order by drawing attention to imperative needs and requirements. It also emphasizes forcefully and appreciably demonstrates the need for agriculture to receive him priority and significant importance in the International Development Strategy for the coming decade.
M. DEHEIM (Libya) (interpretation from Arabic):I would like to thank Dr. Islam for the excellent statement he made on the document before us, which is a serious attempt to put forward various ideas in a very broad framework. In the document we find some important ideas on the future of agriculture. Developing countries have expressed their misgivings concerning agricultural development up to the year 2000 and the plans set up for developing agriculture. The need is also noted to eliminate the consequences of malnutrition, hunger and poverty.
It is normal for a document of this size, with its ambitions, to contain also certain weaknesses or gaps of an investigational nature or in respect of its final conclusions. However, this does not mean that insufficient efforts have been made to prepare it.
We should like to have been able to read the document in its Arabic version in good time, unfortunately, the Arabic version was distributed very late and we were unable to do so.
I should like to make various ccomments.
Increase of agricultural income is a basic matter: we all agree on that objective fact. On several occasions we have said that it is even more important to divide this income fairly, especially in the less favoured economic areas, that is to say the rural areas. We see no reference to that in the document. The achievement of equality of income and the development of rural areas are matters that must be taken into account and considered as vital and basic objectives.
It is perfectly natural that this document should refer to the trends reflected in figures and statistics. We have also taken into account other problems which cannot be quantified in the same manner.
Secondly, the results of WCARRD are still in our minds and we would like to ccomment on this. We do not think that the Conference and its basic conclusions are indeed reflected in this document. We consider that the structural changes of agriculture and the diversification of agriculture and its development, strengthening of the rural areas and participation of rural workers in particular have not been mentioned sufficiently. Of course, development strategy and programmes must be set up. That is a vital matter for the future of agriculture and this should be stressed more clearly.
Thirdly, despite the fact that we entirely agree with the document, the growth rate of agricultural production in developing countries is not sufficiently mentioned in the document. We have not yet spoken of the transfer of technologies. We have not yet spoken of broadening the cultivable areas. The document has also set aside, or swept under the carpet, certain matter concerning animal husbandry and the cultivation of areas which are still uncultivated. I would like to mention these as important matters which have not been included and which, after all, are of great concern to the new prospects of agriculture. Libya is setting up a new agricultural community. We want to achieve true agricultural indpendence. We consider that animal husbandry is of vital importance and we want the people who deal with it to be able to be self-sufficient and to have a better standard of living. That is why we feel that this too should be taken into consideration in the plan set up by the Organization in its plan Agriculture: Toward 2000.
In conclusion, I would like to say that we should really achieve positive conclusions in respect of this document, so that we might be able to participate in the New World Economic Order, and so that we should be able to have a new worldwide strategy. We would also like to express our great appreciation for the matters raised in this document.
CHAIRMAN (interpretation from Arabic): The representative of Saudi Arabia has informed us that he will hand in his statement in writing. This statement will be included in the minutes of the meeting.
L. COMANESCU (Roumanie): Qu'il nous soit permis d'exprimer tout d'abord nos félicitations les plus sincères au Secrétariat pour nous avoir présenté cette étude "Agriculture: Horizon 2000", qui nous donne une image claire de la situation de l'agriculture et de l'alimentation et surtout de ce que nous devrions entreprendre afin d'éliminerjusqu'à la fin de ce siècle le fléau de la famine et de la malnutrition. Nous remercions aussi M. Nurul Islam pour son introduction qui a facilité dans une grande mesure nos débats.
Analysant cette étude, nous avons pu constater avec satisfaction l'effort qu'a fait le Secrétariat pour relever les causes réelles qui ont conduit à l'état actuel dans le domaine alimentaire ainsi que pour définir sur cette base les directions d'action pour l'avenir. Il en résulte en effet que la condition fondamentale pour résoudre à long terme le problème de la faim réside dans l'accroissement accéléré de la production alimentaire dans tous les pays en développement, qui implique à son tour des efforts soutenus de la part de chaque pays ainsi qu'une assistance accrue de la part de la communauté internationale. On met aussi en évidence la nécessité de changements d'ordre structurel dans chaque pays, conformément à ses propres conditions afin de permettre le développement accéléré de l'agriculture. On relève à la fois que le développement accéléré de l'agriculture doit être vu en étroite corrélation avec celui des autres secteurs économiques.
Enfin, et là nous voyons un aspect des plus importants, l'étude relève d'une façon très claire que l'objectif de l'élimination de la faim et de la malnutrition ne pourra pas être réalisé sans l'instauration d'un Nouvel ordre économique international.
Vu le temps limité, je ne voudrais pas entrer davantage dans les détails sur les différents aspects relevés dans le document C 79/24. Tout en étant d'accord avec les conclusions présentés à la fin de cette étude, je voudrais quand même, étant donné que cette étude n'est pas définitive et qu'elle sera révisée, et puis présentée comme contribution concrète de la FAO à l'élaboration de la nouvelle stratégie internationale du développement, faire quelques remarques:
Tout d'abord on précise dans le chapitre 2, page 17, paragraphe 2, ainsi qu'au chapitre 17, paragraphe 4 qu'il y a deux grands objectifs à suivre, à savoir l'élimination de la faim et la restructuration en vue d'un nouvel ordre économique international. Il me semble qu'il n'est pas possible de faire une telle délimitation et qu'on ne devrait même pas la faire parce que cela donne l'impression, tout au moins c'est l'impression que nous avons, qu'il est possible d'entreprendre le premier objectif, à savoir l'élimination de la faim, indépendamment du deuxième. Or, à notre avis, et je sais que la majorité des pays ici présents sont d'accord, on ne pourra pas éliminer la faim sans l'instauration du Nouvel ordre économique international.
Une deuxième remarque porte sur l'étendue de l'étude. Nous comprenons bien l'effort et les difficultés du Secrétariat à assurer les données nécessaires pour les 90 pays en développement pris en considération. Nous nous demandons quand même s'il ne serait pas souhaitable que l'étude couvre dans sa version définitive tous les pays en développement. Cela aidera, à notre avis, à avoir une image aussi complète que possible de ce que l'on devrait faire.
Une troisième et dernière remarque porte sur les actions à entreprendre. Ainsi que je l'ai dit dès le début, nous sommes très satisfaits du fait que l'étude présente les directions dans lesquelles on devrait agir, et on y donne-et je me réfère au scénario normatif que nous considérons comme un minimum nécessaire-parmi d'autres, les niveaux des investissements nécessaires pour le développement agricole, les domaines prioritaires d'action, la part des pays en développement dans les échanges mondiaux des produits agricoles pour l'année 2000.
Nous considérons à la fois utile et nécessaire que cette étude inclut aussi une évaluation de ce que les organisations internationales pourraient et devraient faire à l'avenir pour la réalisation de ces objectifs. C'est dans ce sens que nous suggérons qu'on évalue dans cette étude la possibilité pour ces organisations internationales d'initier un programme de coopérations à long terme jusqu'à l'an 2000 pour le développement agricole des pays en voie de développement Nous voyons la FAO jouer un role central dans un tel programme auquel devraient participer entre autres, la Banque mondiale, le FIDA et autres institutions intéressées.
Il me semble que cette idee a été relevée également par le délégué de l'Inde.
Finalement, je voudrais appuyer l'idée que l’étude "Horizon 2000" et le rapport de la Conférence sur ce point soit transmise à l'Assemblée générale des Nations Unies ainsi qu'au Comité préparatoire pour la nouvelle stratégie de développement.
A. FERNANDEZGONZALEZ (España): Mi delegación desea resaltar la validez de todo el trabajo desarrollado desde hace años para poder llegar a presentarnos la Secretaría este estudio que con el sugestivo título de "La Agricultura hacia el año 2000" figura en el documento C 79/24. Vaya por delante mi agradecimiento hacia todos aquéllos cuya dedicación nos permite ahora reflexionar, y documentadamente, sobre la hipótesis y resultados que en el documento figuran.
Teniendo en cuenta que, aunque intentan trasladar el escenario a edades futuras, a los autores les resulta muy difícil desvincularse de las ideas y tópicos de la edad presente para la cual escriben a fin de cuentas. Considero que la metodología seguida presenta un indudable pragmatismo al establecer dos escenarios, el tendencial y el normativo, cuya interacción en el texto permite una comparación relativamente fácil de las consecuencias y resultados que derivan teóricamente de ambos escenarios.
Era necesario contar con un estudio de este tipo ante la nueva estrategia internacional para el DD 3, y ya lo tenemos.
Sin entrar en detalles precisos ni pretender discutir la validez con que se pretende anticipar el incierto futuro de final de siglo, mi delegación desea exponer algunas consideraciones a los encargados de proceder a la redacción final del estudio, que entiendo seguirá siendo responsabilidad principal de la Secretaría, especialmente si se va a introducir un tercer escenario.
En primer lugar y para centrar el alcance del documento, deseo recordar que se trata de un informe sobre resultados provisionales de un estudio de prospectiva partiendo de una hipótesis derivada de los objetivos probables de la nueva estrategia internacional para el desarrollo.
El trasfondo de todo el estudio viene a ser, de un modo reiterado, la necesidad de una más justa redistribución de las rentas tanto intranacional cuanto internacionalmente como consecuencia de una mal racionalización de recursos.
El Director General nos recuerda en el preámbulo que muchas de las decisiones adoptadas hoy día pueden afectar a la producción en las dos décadas próximas. Creo que como marco global y a largo plazo para que nuestros gobiernos establezcan planes y políticas nacionales, su planteamiento resulta excesivamente tradicional, aunque parezca lógico a la luz de las necesidades hoy aparentes; no se trata de esperar durante los próximos veinte años una agricultura ficción, pero pensamos que muchos de los avances tecnológicos considerados como posibles probablemente habrán podido ejercer su influencia beneficiosa bastante antes que lo previsto utilizando tecnologías adecuadas a los distintos tipos de recursos disponibles y quizá espoleados por la urgencia en encontrar solución viable a la crisis energética mundial.
Las investigaciones agrarias han permitido un espectacular desarrollo en las técnicas de producción, aunque hay que reconocer que la tecnología de la revolución verde se halla asentada sobre el postulado de consumo energético creciente. Así se estima que cada caloría alimentaria obtenida según esta técnica moderna requiere por término medio el insumo de cuatro calorías fósiles; ahora bien ante la perspectiva de una energía petrolífera cada vez más escasa y cara conviene reflexionar seriamente sobre la orientación a medio y largo plazo que debemos dar a nuestro sistema de producción incorporando los máximos valores de origen biológico añadido a los productos finales; porque lo que está claro es la imposibilidad de continuar como hasta ahora cuando ha comenzado el período de restricciones y carestía de la oferta energética tradicional.
Como ejemplo puede decirse que a la hora de evaluar las prioridades de las inversiones somos bastantes ya los que consideramos necesario emprender una investigación de desarrollo para los denominados cultivos agro-energéticos, especialmente en zonas áridas y semi-áridas cuya dependencia energética puede resultar peligrosa a los niveles actuales y previsibles.
Otro ejemplo, señor Presidente: cuando sabemos positivamente que son muy numerosas las zonas agrarias que están deterioradas, por desertización, por desforestización, o salinización inducida a causa de regadíos inadecuados y perdiéndose por el hecho de estar situadas en zonas periurbanas, resulta difícil considerar que en los próximos veinte años ésta seguirá siendo la buena dirección del desarrollo.
Sería preciso, por el contrario, promover un tipo de agricultura que, sin dejar de proporcionar alimentos, fibras o energía en cantidad suficiente a las necesidades del año 2000, reflejase una inversion en la tendencia degradante de la ecología, a la que me acabo de referir. En este sentido mi delegación desea llamar la atención sobre el peligro de desertización irreversible derivado de la deforestización masiva ocasionada por la necesidad en que se ven determinadas zonas rurales de algunos países en desarrollo de emplear cada vez mayores cantidades de madera como fuente energetica vital ante la carestía actual y previsible de las disponibilidades de petróleo.
Señor Presidente, si bien es cierto que los problemas agrarios y rurales vienen acompañando al hombre desde sus orígenes, también lo es que el modo de abordar su solución varía en el curso de la historia; en tal sentido considero que la óptica empleada en el estudio puede resultar excesivamente continuista y que se trata de resolver los problemas de la próxima generación partiendo de supuestos instrumentos aplicados por la agricultura de los países industrializados en los últimos 20 años, como si la gravedad de las crisis simultáneas que nos afectan, tanto de tipo económico y monetario cuanto de orden cultural y social, pudiesen superarse a medio plazo empleando las recetas tradicionales de las economías desarrolladas.
Creo que vale la pena insistir en este punto porque hasta ahora una de las grandes deficiencias del proceso desarrollista ha sido precisamente la ausencia de otorgar la debida consideración en todos los órdenes a los habitantes de zonas rurales; ha habido, con muy pocas excepciones, una marcada insuficiencia de inversión en el sector agrario porque el principal motor de la actividad económica, es decir, las fuentes de financiación no han sabido, no han podido o no han querido identificarse con los objetivos de la estrategia internacional señalada en los dos decenios anteriores. No podemos por ello si no subrayar una de las conclusiones del estudio en el sentido de que es preciso intensificar la asistencia técnica para potenciar la capacidad de los países en desarrollo en la planificación y preparación de sus proyectos de inversión indicando las más ventajosas vías financieras.
En el próximo futuro la agricultura debe recibir una proporción de recursos mucho mayor que hasta ahora, y sólo a medida que cabe impulsar su desarrollo económico podrá su participación disminuir, siempre relativamente, en los planes nacionales o multilaterales de asignación de recursos.
Por otra parte, la inequidad de la distribución de la renta ha acompañado demasiado a menudo al proceso de desarrollo seguido hasta ahora, y ello no constituye ciertamente un ejemplo digno de imitar en el futuro. Otra de las indicaciones que resulta pertinente, a juicio de mi delegación, se refiere a la necesidad de reconsiderar el uso inadecuado que hasta ahora se ha venido haciendo en general de los recursos naturales Nos decía el señor Lamo de Espinosa el día de su elección como Presidente de la Conferencia que en el futuro se impone volver a una economía agraria con menos "elementos modernos", y esta palabra debe figurar entre comillas, y mayores aprovechamientos de los recursos naturales renovables. Creo que es preciso poner mucho más énfasis en la exploración, según criterios ecológicos, de los recursos renovables invirtiendo la tendencia registrada en pasados decenios de limitar en lo posible la inversión necesaria para ello, recurriendo, en cambio, al abuso de los recursos no renovables.
Para terminar mis comentarios pienso que aunque el estudio recoge fundamentalmente el espíritu de la declaración y programa de acción de la reciente Conferencia Mundial de Reforma Agraria y Desarrollo Rural, no le ha sido lógicamente posible incorporar algunos de los conceptos que esta Conferencia puso particularmente de relieve. Me refiero a la necesidad de participación activa y más eficaz de la población, y particularmente de la juventud rural en el proceso definitorio de su propio desarrollo.
Estamos pensando en el futuro y parece lógico compulsar la opinión de algunos de sus principales protagonistas, los jóvenes del mundo de hoy, a través de sus organizaciones, fundamentalmente para tratar de que nuestro escenario normativo corresponda a sus justas aspiraciones; porque, como he leído estos días en un reciente libro norteamericano de memorias, no basta con estar atentos a los cambios, hay que ir por delante de ellos.
H. RIEM (Netherlands): The Head of our Delegation in his general statement has already commended FAO for producing this study and there is no need for me to confirm here what he said. So today I have to add that our delegation wants to thank Professor Islam for his effective introduction to the subject.
The Head of our Delegation also expressed the view that FAO should increasingly base its programme of work and its field activities on studies like AT 2000, which provide valuable background material for agricultural policy planning by governments and international agencies. However, in doing so, one should
be aware of the danger that policies based on the outcome of such studies lose the whole or part of their validity if the assumptions are not in accordance with the actual situation. Two different aspects are to be considered in this connexion.
First, it is necessary to have an insight into the rate of sensibility of the assumptions with regard to the results. Also, secondly, it is desirable to make calculations on the basis of different assumptions, for instance, a pessimistic, a realistic and an optimistic set of assumptions.
Chapter 3 of the study gives two alternative paths of agricultural growth in the developing countries, namely a trend production growth and its implications and a normative path of agricultural growth.
In Chapter 5, which deals with investments in agriculture, calculations have been made of the investment requirements on the basis of a normative path of agricultural growth, at least that is what we understand. Since in our opinion the choice of a normative path of growth is too optimistic, it will be clear that the calculations result in input requirements which are too high.
The study would gain in value if it could be complemented by alternative scenarios, in particular on the basis of a more realistic economic growth, and an even more pessimistic one, in particular with regard to the consequences of investment requirements. We note that there are already plans in this direction and I think we have heard requests from other delegations which are similar.
Another issue is that we think that it will also be important to pay more attention to the selectivity of investments on the basis of priority of objectives. The Head of our Delegation pointed to the need for making country or area studies based on the methods of AT 2000. However, the situation in these countries or areas may be quite different and this will have to result in different priorities with regard to the objectives. This in turn will lead to selectivity in the investments, in particular with regard to the beneficiaries and the nature of the investments.
More thought about the selection of objectives is also of importance because with the Nordic countries, we feel that objectives should also be conditioned by energy problems and also ecology. Other delegations have also pointed to these factors.
We also agree with other countries and delegations that country studies will also provide insight into the productive capacity of these countries and the distribution of food and income in them. This is of importance for the determination of priorities among the objectives, the selectivity of investments and the contributions of the countries concerned to the solution of their problems.
Finally, my delegation recommends that more attention should be paid in the study to the effectiveness of the different strategies. We think that insufficient attention is being paid to education, research and extension, and the significance of these instruments for the effectiveness of the investments.
Our delegation recommends the following: that the study should be complemented by alternative scenarios and by taking into account the results of the calculations in establishing the various priorities and also the significance of education, research and extension for the effectiveness of the investments. Secondly, we propose that the Secretariat of the United Nations and the Preparatory Committee for the International Development Strategy for the Third Development Decade be informed about the relative value of the provisional study, in the light of the observations made by delegations yesterday and here today at the Conference. Also the information should cover the need for further complementing the study, and, I think it is agreed, for integration with the perspectives of non-agricultural sectors.
P. A. MORALES CARBALLO (Cuba): Nuestra delegación ha examinado con profunda atención el estudio de "La Agricultura hacia el año 2000", presentado por la FAO. Saludamos el esfuerzo y el resultado plasmado en el estudio, aunque como bien se aclara en el propio documento presentado, algunas de las premisas y conclusiones pudieran ser mejoradas como resultado de los debates que estamos llevando a cabo.
Sin duda que el resultado de esos debates enriquecerán los aportes que hará esta Conferencia de FAO a los criterios que sobre la próxima decada de la Estrategia para el Desarrollo se llevan a cabo en las Naciones Unidas. Resulta ocioso destacar la importancia que para nuestros países en vías de desarrollo tiene el sector agrícola. Es sin duda alguna vital y decisivo lograr avances en ese sector en el difícil camino hacia el desarrollo.
Es justo reconocer, señor Presidente, el empeño que ha significado este estudio que, entre otras cosas, nos obliga no solamente a ver y a analizar la situación agrícola en el mundo a mediano plazo, sino a meditar más profundamente algo que de ello se desprende y que es como serán las condiciones de vida
de la inmensa mayoría de los seres humanos que pueblan nuestro planeta y que pertenecen en enorme proporción a los países subdesarrollados. Por esa sola razón nuestra delegación considera que este estudio debe enviarse a la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas y a su Comité Preparatorio. Estima mi delegación que solamente este propósito de tratar de ver cómo será en la práctica este mundo en los próximos años justifica ya de por sí su realización.
De otra parte, resultaría prácticamente imposible hacer una referencia detallada y minuciosa al sin numero de aspectos sociales, económicos, políticos, etc. que contiene el estudio. Por ello, señor Presidente, pretendemos concentrarnos en aquellos puntos que a nuestro entender pudieran ser de mayor relevancia dadas las limitaciones de tiempo para hacer esta exposición, teniendo como principal punto de referencia, los centenares de millones de hambrientos que aun existirán a finales de siglo.
La primera reflexión que nos asalta al concluir el examen del estudio, es la magnitud y complejidad de la tarea que espera a la comunidad internacional en los próximos años. Resalta, en primer lugar, el fracaso de las metas establecidas para eliminar el hambre en el mundo, hacia 1985, tal como se expresa en el propio estudio, la meta era ambiciosa y en la práctica ha sido ignorada.
¿Qué medidas proponer entonces, para erradicar el más terrible azote de la humanidad?¿Cómo materializar pasos concretos encaminados a aliviar y poder eliminar esta dramática situación?
Tal como plantea el estudio, será necesario acelerar la producción de alimentos. Para ello es imprescindible modernizar el proceso de producción. Se requieren más fertilizantes, herbicidas, maquinarias y equipos. Resulta imprescindible incrementar la aplicación de la ciencia y de la técnica, aumentar los esfuerzos en el campo de la investigación y apresurar su aplicación a la producción. La población aumenta, la tierra disponible disminuye relativamente. Sólo con la aplicación de la ciencia y la técnica puede enfrentarse este desafío. Apoyamos el criterio de que en los próximos veinte años deben duplicarse los recursos de la agricultura de 39 mil millones de dólares en 1980 hasta 78 mil millones en el año 2000.
Para todo el proceso de aumento de la producción, el factor decisivo es el hombre. Es necesario que se efectúen reformas económicas y sociales profundas en el sector, de manera que el hombre sea realmente el protagonista y beneficiario del proceso. Es en este aspecto en el que consideramos está la clave del problema. Sin una amplia participación popular, no habrá remedio para la dramática situación que confrontamos.
Junto con las reformas internas y el incremento de la producción, hay que exigir cada vez con más fuerza la restructuración del caduco orden económico existente. Sin cambios sustanciales en el comercio internacional, del cual se benefician hoy sólo unos pocos países ricos, no podrán materializarse los cambios internos necesarios, ni alcanzar progresos encaminados al bienestar humano.
La injusta relación de intercambio existente, debe desaparecer. No es posible hablar de incrementar la producción agrícola cuando se padece una disminución constante de los precios de las materias primas y se encarecen ostensiblemente los productos manufacturados y los equipos que importamos. En nuestra región de Latinoamérica, según el estudio realizado recientemente por la Oficina Regional de la FAO para nuestra área, el efecto de las restricciones aplicadas por una serie de países fundamentalmente a cereales, carne vacuna, azúcar, bananas y algodón, se revirtieron en una reducción del comercio de nuestro país, en unos 14 400 millones de dólares de los Estados Unidos en sólo diez años.
Esta más que comprobado, señor Presidente, que la estabilización interna de los mercados de los productos agropecuarios la pueden realizar aquellos países que tienen una gran capacidad económica financiera. Esa estabilización interna se traduce en mayores fluctuaciones en el mercado internacional, el cual supone un peso mayor sobre los países en desarrollo productores que deben hacer grandes importaciones de todo tipo.
En el estudio se plantea la posibilidad de que los países subdesarrollados puedan elevar el volumen de sus exportaciones de productos agrícolas en un 5 por ciento en 1990. Con la situación actual de trabas al comercio impuestas por los países desarrollados con sus políticas de subsidio y proteccionismo, sería muy difícil llegar a esta meta.
Para aliviar sus situaciones de incuestionables déficits en las balanzas tiene necesariamente que recurrir a la ayuda externa. La ayuda externa tiene que ser enfocada bajo un nuevo prisma. Nuestros países no soportan la hoy terrible carga de la deuda externa. En muchos de los países más pobres el único camino es lograr la cancelación de esa deuda, que no tiene la mínima posibilidad de pagar.
En cuanto a la asistencia financiera necesaria, debe ofrecerse en términos blandos, y a muy corto plazo, pues de lo contrario sus efectos, como ahora, serán nocivos. Debe aumentarse sustancialmente la ayuda financiera. Esto es una obligación de toda la humanidad.
Cuando analizamos señor Presidente, el Capítulo 4, en el epígrafe 3, se plantean los principales sectores de decision que influyen en las opciones estratégicas de la producción agrícola. Nos preguntamos, señor Presidente, ¿como podrían priorizar la extension de la superficie o intensificación del uso de la tierra los cientos de millones de seres humanos que no tienen acceso a las tierras? ¿Cómo podrían diversificar los cultivos si no tiene ni siquiera dónde cultivar lo imprescindible para subsistir? ¿Cómo podrían utilizar tecnologías diversas para aumentar los rendimientos si solamente conocen sus manos o una simple azada para cultiva en tierra? Consideramos que además de los aspectos técnicos analizados en este estudio, hay aspectos de índole puramente social que esta Comisión y esta Conferencia no pueden pasar por alto. Exhortamos a que se profundice en estos aspectos pues todos sabemos que las soluciones técnicas no resuelven los problemas sociales.
Señor Presidente, referente a las dimensiones internacionales del desarrollo agrícola, y en especial al comercio internacional de productos agrícolas, consideramos que ya se ha hablado suficiente en esta Comisión y tenemos, incluso, que someter a aprobación una Resolución sobre estos importantes aspectos; sin embargo, resalta a nuestra atención los planteamientos de la página 182 del texto español, donde se afirma que la situación en los últimos años de los países desarrollados productores y exportadores de cereales, leche y productos lácteos, fue de abundancia y, en ocasiones, de molestos excedentes que, como todos conocemos, son destruidos en algunos momentos topes para mantener los precios.
¿Cómo se conjunta esto, señor Presidente, con la existencia de cientos de miles de personas que no tienen tan siquiera un pedazo de pan? En la actualidad se discute si el número de desnutridos en nuestro planeta es sólo de 400 millones o se acerca a la cifra de 450 millones. Nos parece que una cifra de 400 millones de desnutridos es de sobra acusatoria.
El estudio de la agricultura hacia el año 2000 es un gran desafío. En la exposición general sobre los problemas de la agricultura mundial, se plantea que el factor humano es importantísimo para elevar la producción, vayamos un poco más allá en ese desafío. Consideramos que es la hora que todos nos unamos en la tarea de sacar a pueblos enteros y a cientos de millones de seres humanos del retraso, la miseria, la desnutrición, las enfermedades, el analfabetismo, que les hace imposible disfrutar a plenitud de la dignidad y el orgullo de llamarse hombres.
CHAIRMAN (interpretation from Arabic); Before closing the meeting this morning I should like to say that Brazil hashanded in a written addresswhich will be added to the record.
A. S. MASHHABY (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia): The study deals with the world agricultural sector and food situation, and anticipated agricultural policies until the year 2000, with special emphasis on developing countries. It studies the contribution of agriculture towards satisfaction of growing demand in view of the expected rise in national income. It points out to investment requirements and the implications to labour demand for agricultural production of the growth in income and production and the nutritional status in developing countries. Besides, the study goes on to deal with international trade, foreign aid requirements including food aid, necessary to finance production increase and narrow the gap between food supply and demand.
We noticed that the study has given special attention to aid in the form of subsidized imports into developing countries of strategic commodities such as wheat. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia suggests that aid should be increased in the form of production inputs (technical and technological assistance) to develop local production and enable the developing countries to rely on their own food resources.
We noticed that the study did not deal with dates, although world production of dates amounted to 2. 2 million tons in 1975 according to FAO estimates, and the fact that dates are an important food source in many developing countries. That is why my country would like a study to be made on the maximization and processing of world production of dates.
To achieve increases in agricultural production by the year 2000 we believe special attention should be given to:
(a) study possibilities of unconventional agricultural production
(b) increased interest in agricultural extension and training
(c) study relationship between farm income and size in order to establish the optimum farm capacity capable of maximizing returns in the agricultural sector
(d) study the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural labour, especially technical skills which are in high demand as a result of new, highly technical agricultural practices
(e) study policies for agricultural integration between countries having the necessary elements for economic and social integration
Finally I believe the study is a good one, in spite of certain weak points. It could serve as a base for breakthrough if these deficiencies were taken care of. 1/
A. TRONCOSO VILAS (Brazil): Mr. Chairman, the Brazilian delegation would like to join the others in expressing its congratulation to FAO in preparing document C 79/24, as a quite useful study to the und standing of the agricultural situation in the future. The head of our delegation has already commended F effort in developing such a study, therefore there is no need to say much about its importance.
However, since this is a provisional report which will be revised later on, we would also like to sugg the following items to be considered in the document:
1-An adequate and concise macro-economic model, benefiting from existing ones, should support its anal allowing for greater consistency, reliability and further comparasion with other agencies studies;
2-Greater attention should be given to the appropriate role of investment in A. T. 2000 due to its ba importance in the process of generating and transfering technology to transform the traditional agriculture in less developed countries;
3-Besides indicating the present and future agricultural "state of arts", the ways and means to change or improve such situations should also be indicated and analvzed;
4-As it has been pointed out in many opportunities due consideration must be given to the key role a effect of international trade in the future of agriculture, therefore, the "At 2000' document should tak it into account;
5-Since some of the estimates of the study indicates some biased results, an additional effort of updating will be recomended;
6-Finally, we would like to suggest that the document dedicates a special charter into the challenging problems of energy constraints into agricultural development.
We understand, Mr. Chairman, the due analysis of the above items will contribute to improve the document and should add to the achievement of its objectives to provide this conference with long term perspectives in agriculture as well as to help FAO to formulate its action toward the new international develo ment strategy. 1/
The meeting rose at 13. 00 hours
La séance est levée à 13 heures"
Se levanta la sesión a las 13 horas
1/ Statement inserted in the verbatim records on request.
