El PRESIDENTE: Buenas tardes señores delegados, se abre la décima sesión de trabajo de esta Comisión y les quiero recordar el anuncio que hoy en la mañana hicimos en cuanto a que el Grupo de Contacto sobre el Reajuste Agrícola Internacional deberá reunirse hoy a las 15.30 horas en el salón Alemania. Los textos del borrador de resolución se encuentran ya en inglés, francés y español y han sido distribuidos a los miembros de dicho Grupo de Contacto. Sin embargo, las copias están disponibles en el salón Alemania desde luego.
Tenemos por delante una lista larga de oradores que me voy a permitir leer: en primer lugar, tenemos como observador al Fondo de las Naciones Unidas para Actividades en Materia de Población, posteriormente Francia, Polonia, Italia, Bangladesh, Barbados, España, Tailandia, Canadá, Mali, Yugoslavia, Kenya, Argelia, Sudán, Dinamarca, Israel, Trinidad y Tabago, Japón, Marruecos, Congo, Iraq, Panamá y Turquía.
Como ven ustedes la lista es larga, por lo que suplicamos concreción y mesura del tiempo. Tiene la palabra el representante del Fondo de las Naciones Unidas para Actividades en Materia de Población.
H.E. WITTRIN (UNFPA): Following this morning's interesting introduction by Dr Bommer, I am grateful for the opportunity to make a statement on the topic of food and population on behalf of Mr Salas, the Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. From the very beginning of civilization the interrelationship between population and food has been one of the vital determinants of economic and social structures. The influence of population on agricultural organization and technology, on one hand, and the influence of rising agricultural productivity on population growth, on the other, affected the long-term movements both food output and population growth. Short-term imbalances usually resolve themselves with time. When famine occurred, it was often the result of temporary shortfalls in food output caused by adverse weather conditions, rampant epidemics or war.
The current interaction between food and population differs radically from the past. Though weather still affects food production, severe famines can sometimes be avoided through timely storage and distribution of food to the needy.
Yet the crisis which is now emerging in a number of developing countries, especially in Africa, can no longer be averted by storage and distribution alone. A severe population/food imbalance affecting the very future of these countries in respect of public health, employment, nutrition and last but not least, rates of economic growth are obvious.
One underlying factor of the existing population/food imbalance is the acceleration in the rate of population growth during the present century. World population reached its first billion only by the year 1800, but another billion was added in the following 130 years. Current world population is estimated at 4.7 billion, thus having more than doubled during the span of the last 53 years. UN projections indicate about 6.1 billion people in the year 2000. Ninety percent of the increase is likely to take place in the developing countries. In the longer term, population growth should slow down during the next century and hopefully level off at a total of about 10.2 billion after the year 2095.
We are now faced with the reality of the powerful momentum in population growth. While the annual rate of growth has declined, the worldwide rate from nearly 2 percent in the 1960s to 1.7 percent today, the declining percentage conceal the massive increase in the numbers involved. At present, net additions to world population are about 78 million a year. By the end of this century, this figure will have increased to 89 million per annum.
A phenomenon of the last decade has been the astonishing speed at which the major cities of the developing world have grown. While the level of urbanization remains less than half that of the developed world, developing countries now for the first time in modern history have a larger urban population than the industrialized countries. Rapid urban growth causes staggering problems of health, housing, education, jobs and nutrition, so much so that many countries are trying to stem the growth of the larger cities in favour of smaller urban areas and of rural development.
As emphasized by this Conference and the Director-General of FAO himself, the present situation in sub-Saharan Africa dramatizes how population growth has contributed to drastic consequences for food security. In relatively few countries did agricultural production growth exceed the increase in population. We are led to the unavoidable conclusion that the solution of the food/population imbalance calls for a simultaneous attack on both population and food problems. The implications of the FAO Study for the year 2000 need careful assessment by the international community. If past trends in food production and population growth rates continue, FAO estimates that the number of undernourished people will rise from 435 million in the mid-70s to nearly 600 million by the year 2000. There is an obvious connexion between malnourishment and poor health and between poor health and mortality, particularly infant mortality. The connexion between infant mortality and high fertility is less clear, but it is a fact that the countries with the highest birth rates also have the highest infant mortality rates. For many countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, bringing down infant mortality rates is an important immediate goal and very much UNFPA's concern.
In the context of the population stabilization and the global food outlook, the United Nations Fund for Population Activities collaborated with the Food and Agriculture Organization in having the potential population supporting capacities of lands in the developing world evaluated. We heard a brief outline this morning.
I am confident that this Conference will critically examine the study's findings based on your understanding and experience of agricultural development problems confronting your own country or region. In our view, there are three major implications for the interrelation between food and population. First, supply: the realization of the production potential will depend upon the quantum of investment in agriculture. The very countries and regions where a problem of food/ population imbalance will be acute also happen to need the greatest amount of investment in agriculture.
Second, given the present global outlook, it seems doubtful that the required massive investment in agriculture can be mobilized in these countries. National and international movements in food will therefore be a major aspect of any solution.
Finally, the solution will also require measures to curb the growth of demand for food. Growth as a result of increase in per capita income is not amenable to limitation, because it is precisely rising per capita incomes which are most desired in these countries.
The other major component of demand is the size of the population and its rate of growth. Any lasting solution to the population and food problem will therefore be found only by looking at both sides of the equation.
In closing, Mr Chairman, UNFPA looks forward to a continued and intensified collaboration with FAO during the years to come. We are pleased with our excellent work relationship and expect that the 1984 International Conference on Population, to be held in Mexico City, will provide a new impetus for worldwide consideration of the food and population issue.
P. ELMANOWSKY (France): J'étais pris par d'autres réunions ce matin et je n'ai pu entendre l'exposé du Secrétariat ni les interventions de mes collègues et peut-être risquerai-je d'être un peu répétitif ou de dire des choses qui ne correspondront pas toujours aux indications données; je vous demande donc de bien vouloir m'en excuser.
Le document que nous étudions, C 83/18, fait état de la réponse que les études menées conjointement par la FAO, le Fonds des Nations Unies en matière de population, l'Institut international pour l'application des analyses de systèmes (dont le siège est à Laxenburg en Autriche) tentent de donner quant aux possibilités de nourrir les hommes jusqu'en 2095 et au-delà.
Ma première réflexion est la suivante: ces études prospectives - surtout si lointaines - nous conduisent à une certaine prudence, à une certaine méfiance car nous n'aimerions pas, lorsqu'en 2095 les chercheurs, pour ne pas dire les archéologues, se trouveront face à nos travaux, qu'ils constatent que nous nous sommes largement trompés. Mais enfin ... mais enfin ...
Ce problème a déjà été examiné dans un ouvrage intitule "Nourrir dix milliards d'hommes" de M. Clarksman; mais ici il est réduit à un aspect plus limité. En effet, pour autant que j'aie pu lire ce document, il me semble que le seul facteur étudié est celui des terres des pays en voie de développement.
On parle en particulier de 117 pays; mais il ne faut pas oublier que les terres peuvent être exploitées plus ou moins intensivement par l'intermédiaire d'intrants qui y sont apportés.
D'où quelques questions. Pourquoi avoir limité le problème, l'étude, aux seuls pays en développement? On me répondra: d'abord parce qu'il fallait commencer par les pays où le problème se posera le plus gravement; parce qu'on n'avait pas le temps ou l'argent pour entreprendre une étude dans tous les pays. Il n'en reste pas moins que prendre pour hypothèse que les terres situées dans les pays développés sont exploitées de façon maximale et optimale constitue une grave erreur. Aussi bien en Amérique du Nord qu'en Australie, pour ne prendre que ces deux exemples, il y a encore d'importantes surfaces de terres disponibles pour une exploitation plus intensive. D'autre part, même dans d'autres pays où la culture intensive est déjà très poussée, et je prendrai pour exemple un petit pays qui est un exemple de culture super-intensive, je veux parler d'Israël, eh bien, dans ce pays, pour des raisons économiques évidentes, les productions du pays ne font pas partie des 15 cultures alimentaires principales dans le monde, celles qui sont prises en considération pour l'étude. En effet, dans ce pays comme dans d'autres, le producteur estime qu'il a plus d'argent à gagner en satisfaisant ce que l'on pourrait appeler presque les fantaisies des consommateurs les plus solvables, qu'en assurant les besoins essentiels correspondant à la nourriture et les besoins essentiels des pauvres.
Et je rappellerai une chose: le plan indicatif mondial préparé et présenté il y a plusieurs années n'avait été réalisé qu'en fonction et pour les pays en développement. Et ceci bien évidemment ne pouvait aboutir qu'à souligner les oppositions entre les pays en développement et les pays développés. Et l'expérience limitée du plan indicatif mondial aurait peut-être dû servir de mise en garde contre la limitation ainsi apportée dans l'étude qui nous est présentée.
Second ordre de remarque, sur la méthodologie et les limites de l'étude. Malgré toutes les précautions prises par les différents auteurs de l'étude pour exposer les hypothèses et les projets de résultats, toutes ces précautions risquent de ne pas être retenues par des lecteurs qui ne sont pas experts dans ces domaines. On peut trouver que c'est une réaction brutale dans un effort de vulgarisation, qu'on a pris toutes les précautions et on pourra dire: "dans tant d'années il y aura un manque de ceci, ou on peut réaliser cela", mais il faudra toujours prendre beaucoup de précautions et de réserves en présentant les indications obtenues.
D'autre part, pour apprécier l'impact de ce travail, peut-être serait-il nécessaire d'avoir certaines précisions complémentaires. Les besoins pris en compte tels qu'ils ressortent de la page 3 de notre document, au troisième paragraphe et dans le chapitre intitulé "Limites", sont-ils seulement les besoins physiologiques minimaux ou, comme dans le plan indicatif mondial, tiennent-ils compte de la demande future qui résultera de l'amélioration des revenus des individus? Car il est bien évident que, au fur et à mesure que le revenu individuel s'accroît, les besoins sont encore plus poussés; par conséquent, ceci aurait une influence sur les résultats globaux.
Deuxièmement les intrants considérés, engrais, pesticides en particulier, sont-ils plutôt obtenus par des procédés perennes, dirons-nous, utilisant des énergies renouvelables ou au contraire, sont-ils obtenus en utilisant des souches fossiles par exemple? Comment prendrait-on en compte l'épuisement de ces richesses, tant dans la balance entre les intrants incorporés et la diminution, si je puis dire, du patrimoine mondial, et l'amélioration, l'accroissement de la population? Enfin, tout ceci constitue des éléments.
Enfin, on envisage également à la page 3 une réduction sévère des zones boisées. Mais il faut aussi prendre en considération, comme élément négatif, non seulement le risque de diminution des approvisionnements indispensables, aussi bien en bois d'oeuvre qu'en bois de feu, mais aussi la répercussion que ce déboisement aurait sur l'environnement, sur éventuellement le régime des climats, et même, sur le renouvellement de l'oxygène terrestre,
Alors, après ces questions, vous le voyez, nous avons non pas des hésitations, mais enfin nous nous demandons, nous nous posons des questions.
Les informations qui figurent dans les tableaux à partir de la page neuf sont certainement intéressantes, mais à condition d'avoir présentes à l'esprit les limites de l'étude (limites indiquées par les auteurs eux-mêmes), et les hypothèses réductrices, simplificatrices, qui ont permis d'arriver à ces tableaux.
Je ferai aussi une remarque de détail. C'est sans doute, peut-être, une erreur dactylographique. Il s'agit du texte français de la page 7. Le troisième paragraphe dit "La plupart de ces pays souffrent déjà de pénurie de terres, et quelques-uns disposent de ressources agricoles substantielles qui leur permettent de financer leurs importations de denrées". J'ai l'impression qu'il manque un mot et je crois qu'il faut dire: "certains disposent de ressources non agricoles substantielles". Car sans cela la phrase ne serait pas très compréhensible.
Conclusion: c'est une conclusion très générale que je vais indiquer. Cet examen que nous entreprenons risque peut-être de négliger les précautions indispensables à prendre dans l'usage de l'étude, dans l'usage des résultats et ce, alors qu'elle a été vraiment scientifiquement conduite et qu'elle a maintenant acquis ou risquera d'acquérir une sorte de pouvoir, une sorte d'aura magique, lourde de conséquences mystifiantes et source de déception.
M. ZJALIC (Yugoslavia): My delegation commends the Secretariat for the preparation of this document, and for this excellent example of cooperation between specialist organizations and agencies. The document contains the major findings of the study. As was stated by Dr Bommer in his excellent introduction, and echoed by many previous speakers, it is clear that the problem of the relationship between food and population cannot be completely covered in a single study. All the relevant aspects of land management, food production and population need to be kept under constant review by governments and international organizations in order to help all member governments in formulating their policies in this vital sector, as well as implementing these policies and correcting them when necessary. This is the first message which transpires from the study and from previous discussion.
The second message is the need for continuous participation of rural people in improving the methods and technology of rational utilization and conservation of land and water as basic resources for food production. Many delegations have recalled that people can and will participate only if they have an interest and if they have clear incentives. This means they will only participate when they have equitable access to natural resources. The same goes for family planning.
The third message is the close linkage between land and food security. Countries will not be able to feed their populations even at a high level of input, so the international community is obliged to help countries with their production potential in order to attain self-sufficiency in food production locally.
For countries which are not in a position to produce food, an economic solution should be found through rational distribution of labour and through enhanced and liberalized trade, as was emphasized in many previous speeches.
Lastly, I am sure that this study and the debate we have had will contribute to an increased public awareness of the problems of land, food and population. In our opinion, FAO should continue to keep this topic under constant review, and should undertake appropriate follow-up actions so that governments can consult amongst themselves and exchange experience of their activities in these important spheres,
Z. GROCHOWSKI (Poland): A short report entitled "Land, Food and Population" is an attempt to synthesize the experiences of FAO and many other organizations in the field of estimating world production resources and population growth rates. These studies take quite a long time. Nevertheless, we have reached the time when, through the synthesis of different reports, it is possible to elaborate on a warning of unfavourable tendencies in world development, and the time has come to try and suggest some undertakings which ought to be considered in order to reduce disharmony in world agricultural developments.
We are participating in a big international conference, not in a scientific symposium. That is why, finding some weaknesses in the basic methodology, we must focus our attention on the essence of the matter. The most important thing is that the earth could feed the quickly growing population of the world only if agricultural potential is developed, and developed quickly. We agree fully with these estimates.
However, we must see that our aims are attainable. There is a huge - and we hope temporary -regional disproportion in the agricultural development of the world; this is the essence of the matter, not the global comparison of the world's potential, which gives some kind of assurance but cannot reduce regional needs. Studies like this give an opportunity for development if all efforts are focussed in this direction, and not on armaments. We share the opinion that such studies should be continued. They form the basis for formulating positive programmes of action.
Our experience in overcoming the crisis shows that every country should elaborate a real programme of agricultural development by the year 2000. In Poland, this is an important instrument in giving high priority to agriculture in the development of the whole national economy. Probably many countries will need some methodological assistance from FAO to elaborate such agricultural development. Such studies would develop given previous prognostic work. In our opinion, future studies should be improved, first by principles in the selection of the countries according to levels of technology and input use; second, criteria for the selection of types of soils in different regions; thirdly, principles of selection of the agro-ecological zones in relation to soil types and dynamic changes of production; and fourth, methodological study for the global assessment of land potential on a country and regional level.
E. MAMMONE (Italie): La delegation italienne voudrait se féliciter avec le Secrétariat dela FAO et surtout avec Monsieur Bommer, pour cet excellent rapport qui nous a été présenté et pourles projections de diapositives très efficaces.
Nous nous rallions à ce qui a été dit par les délégués qui nous ont précédés sur l'utilité de cette étude et sur l'opportunité de la poursuivre par la FAO. Il y a tout de même quelque chose qui nous préoccupe, et qui a été évoqué il y a quelques instants par la Délégation de la France. A la page trois du document C 83/18, on lit, je cite: "... l'étude ne considère comme terrains boisés que les terres impropres à l'agriculture ou à la pâture ...". Nous sommes bien conscients du fait qu'il s'agit seulement d'une hypothèse de travail, et d'autre part le document même considère cela comme une limite de l'étude.
Il est inutile de rappeler dans cette enceinte où ce problème a été toujours vif à l'esprit, l'importance que revêtent les points évoqués, non seulement comme sources d'approvisionnement en bois de feu et bois d'oeuvre, mais aussi, et surtout, pour l'équilibre écologique de notre planète. Or, la délégation italienne craint que si dans l'étude on considère les terres boisées limitées seulement aux terres résiduelles impropres à l'agriculture et à la pâture, on ait des prévisions de production agro-alimentaire qui pécheront en excès dans toutes les trois hypothèses prévues, le niveau bas, le niveau intermédiaire, et le niveau le plus élevé.
La délégation italienne espére donc que la FAO, et éventuellement avec la collaboration du Programme des Nations Unies pour l'environnement, procède à des corrections de cette hypothèse de travail en tenant compte des terres que ni pourront pas être exploitées pour la production alimentaire, mais qui devront restées boisées si l'on ne veut pas aller au devant de terribles désastres.
A.H.M. ABDUL HYE (Bangladesh): My fellow delegate, who deputized for me this morning, has told me that Dr Bommer made a very attractive presentation of his paper. Although unfortunately I missed it, may I nevertheless congratulate him on his brilliant presentation.
Document C 83/18 is a very interesting one inasmuch as it summarizes a study undertaken by FAO in collaboration with the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and the UNFPA, on the potential population supporting capacities in the developing countries in comparison with their actual and projected population. Since population is considered a most important problem in relation to resources, this scientific assessment should be of great help and interest to policy makers and planners in the developing countries, and to the donors and others concerned with the population programme. Given the widest possible publicity from the existing media, the results of the study may also be of interest to individuals, particularly couples whose private decisions have given rise to a problem of public concern both at national and international levels. It is reassuring to know that the "spaceship earth," particularly the land covered by the 117 developing countries can potentially feed twice the population they had in 1975 and more than one and a half times their predicted population for the year 2000, even at a low level of input used. If the industrialized developed countries refrain from over-consumption of resources, the supporting capacity of the world as a whole could be even more.
However, when we look at the data on lower levels of aggregation, particularly at country level, a much less encouraging picture emerges. The study identifies 55 critical countries whose potential population supporting capacities at low levels of inputs are less than their 1975 population.
The study shows that raising the level of inputs has a marked effect on the population supporting capacities and it can be seen that, through this measure alone, the number may come down to 23 at the intermediate level and 13 at the high level of input used. The study also indicates that 19 out of 117 developed countries cannot escape from the course of unfavourable resource/population balance, even at the high level of inputs used. The policy implications of the findings of the study should be obvious.
We must strive to increase agricultural production, particularly food, through extensive cultivation wherever possible and through intensive cultivation where no additional land is available. Since land-scarce countries happen also to be the densely populated countries, increasing productivity per unit of land through greater and better use of inputs has to be the main element in the strategy for agricultural development to keep pace with population growth. The successful implementation of the strategy calls for adequate efforts at both national and international levels. Simultaneously, population policies designed to limit the rate of population growth in countries with an adverse land/man ratio have to be pursued if hunger, malnutrition and the occasional spectre of famine are to be avoided and the quality of life is to be improved.
Here I would like to point out that experiences in respect of population planning in most of the developing countries, including Bangladesh are not very encouraging. Perhaps we have to shift the emphasis from conventional family planning activities and concentrate on growth with equitable distribution of wealth produced by nations.
Past records of demographic history show that there is an autonomous decline in population when socio-economic development takes place and all sections of society actively participate in the development process and benefit from it. If we take lessons from the experiences of countries which have gone through this demographic transition, then a new orientation of the conventional approach to population planning seems called for. Perhaps this is the message that should be conveyed by the Conference to the International Conference on Population to be held next year.
L. SMITH (Barbados): I wish to congratulate the FAO on document C 83/18 and Dr Bommer for the excellent presentation made this morning. As you know, Barbados is a small island state with a population of over 1500 people per square mile, or approximately 10 people for every arable hectare. So we took considerable interest in this document as well as in the discussion that went on in this Commission. We took note of the comments made by the delegates of Australia and Israel and some very interesting remarks made with respect to agriculture and agricultural production.
Many delegations, and I might add the FAO itself, encouraged the Organization and Dr Bommer to continue this work and we feel that it is essential that the work be continued, although it makes several assumptions. It is necessary in this type of study to do that and to ignore certain factors which are nevertheless going to be important in what happens.
However, we feel that FAO should try to identify those countries which require agro-climatic and soil survey data, as well as demographic information, so as to be able to encourage and assist the respective countries in collecting the data. While this information is important to the FAO for its analysis, it is even more important for the developing countries to be able to utilise this type of information at the planning economic level and at the national level. The FAO should, therefore, as part of its follow-up assist in the training of personnel in developing countries to utilize this data as much as possible at the national and planning economic level.
I believe it is true that many developing countries, because of the multiplicity of complex problems they face in economic development and in agriculture, do not make use of this type of analysis.
We must not get carried away by the analysis, since it must be realised that any analysis of this nature, irrespective of the amount of input information, will always remain an approximation. Factors such as plant genetic improvement, livestock improvement, animal health measures and animal nutrition are among a few of the many subject areas of continuing investigation and research. The useful results of all these investigations will be applied at some stage or other or at some level of technology or agricultural production in the under-developed countries. So we cannot expect that the technology of production will remain static. Thus it is extremely difficult to predict the growth rate of food production in the next decade in any country with any real degree of accuracy.
The experience of Barbados in the area of food production and population is that the problem must be tackled simultaneously on several fronts and not necessarily in the agricultural area alone. Over twenty years ago we had a vigorous educational programme in family planning and we have been able considerably to reduce the rate of population growth to below 1.6 percent. This has meant improvements in health standards, educational levels and nutritional levels.
Secondly, we introduced land use town and country planning legislation and the town and country planning office exercises vigorous control over the fragmentation and subdivision of land and its use for non-agricultural purposes such as tourism, housing, and other purposes. The office allocated land resources according to its capability, in order to ensure that land is not taken out of agriculture where the potential for further development and increased productivity was considered to be high. At the same time we have concentrated on agricultural diversification and increased production and in 1982 the non-sugar agricultural sector was able to give 3 percent to the gross domestic product than sugarcane agriculture, which is our major agricultural activity for export.
The other very important area which must not be forgotten is total economic planning. I think when delegates look at the document they will find that there are countries which cannot even support their present level of population. So we feel that the other area that must be tackled and which is extremely important is providing for the rural population to become involved in some form of useful employment activity. Therefore in planning the whole strategy you must take into account other economic sub-sectors so as to provide support for infrastructure services, a local domestic market for expanded agricultural production, but you must also provide meaningful employment where those people not engaged in producing agricultural commodities still have access to food by being able to purchase it through being employed in reasonable living conditions.
The solutions to the problems for all these countries are critical,there must be a total picture of planning of development, not only in agricultural commodities but also in non-agricultural commodities. The solution is the export of manufactured items. This will improve foreign exchange capabilities and therefore the ability of these countries to feed their total population.
The last paragraph of document C 83/18 refers to this in one or two countries which cannot feed their population. We must look at it also in terms of providing some alternative forms of employment. We must also remember that as soon as agricultural production or productivity increases there will be a higher displacement of the labour force in agricultural areas. This means they have to be employed in services either in support of agricultural items or non-agricultural items.
I think the problem comes down basically to the one I referred to earlier, the transfer of resources to rural areas. At the same time as you are trying to give incentives to the non-agricultural areas to continue to provide the economic base which would allow for the total expansion of the national infrastructure, unless you can overcome the difficult problem of transferring some of your resources to the rural sector and at the same time building up economic resources in another economic sub-sector so that the total national infrastructure can be maintained or developed, until you can overcome that problem in most of the undeveloped countries, this difficult problem will remain of adequate food production to support the national population.
J. DE DIOS OSUNA (España): Mi delegación quiere agradecer al señor Bommer su presentación y felicitar a la FAO por este magnífico trabajo que sin duda será de gran utilidad para formular futuras políticas agrarias y poblacionales; pero deberá profundizarse más aún en el mismo, corrigiendo las limitaciones que presenta.
En un futuro, el trabajo debería extenderse a todos los frentes capaces de ser cubiertos por la FAO, y principalmente al potencial humano, a los recursos forestales y a los recursos pesqueros. Asimismo, ciñiendome el potencial agrario estudiado hay aspectos que son importantes y que no se han tenido en cuenta en la metodología del estudio, por lo que para trabajos futuros deberán incluirse otros cultivos alimentarios, al menos para aquellos países donde sus potenciales productivos puedan tener una incidencia positiva para alcanzar la autosuficiencia. Para determinados países los cultivos no alimentarios constituyen una importante fuente de recursos económicos que posibilitan la adquisición de alimentos. También estimamos que deberá extenderse el trabajo al análisis de la posible mejora de las tierras y al examen potencial irrigable para poder medir y cuantificar la importancia y necesidad de las futuras inversiones en estos campos.
Señor Presidente, nuestra delegación no ha pretendido restar valor a este excelente trabajo, por el contrario lo consideramos muy necesario e importante por lo que deberá continuarse en el futuro, pero mejorándolo y profundizando en el mismo mediante el estudio de aquellos frentes o aspectos no contemplados.
Por último, estimamos de gran interés lo expuesto por otras delegaciones, como la de Mexico, sobre la necesidad de desarrollar otros sectores económicos en aquellos países donde no sea posible alcanzar la autosuficiencia alimentaria.
S. CHIRAPANT (Thailand): My delegation would like to express our appreciation to the Secretariat for their well illustrated introduction to this item, especially the presentation by Dr Bommer. Being aware of the increasing imbalance of food, population and land, I am pleased to inform the meeting that my Government has put an enormous effort into meeting the problem. Our programme of population growth control, as was mentioned in the Plenary Session by the head of my delegation, is comparatively satisfactory. The population growth of 1.5 percent is expected to be achieved by the end of our present National Economic and Social Development Plan in 1986.
However, with regard to the limited availability of cultivable land, my Government has considered seriously how to improve our food production efficiently. In this connection, intensive cultivation was introduced and the extension of cultivable land has been discouraged. In addition, new technology on high-yield breeding, the use of fertilizers, the improvement of the drainage system and mechanisation, as well as soil fertility conservation are very much recognised.
The new FAO arrangement of a Research and Technology Development Division is believed to have contributed greatly to the improvement of food and agriculture development. That is why my delegation fully supports it in the field of FAO activities.
These developments in my country are consistent with what the UNFPA representative has just said on the resolution on the problem of food and population.
In conclusion, my delegation believes that without the control of population and improvement in land fertility and land use, food production would hardly achieve the target of the eradication of food hunger and malnutrition by the year 2000.
N. MACDONNELL (Canada): This is an important study and we would like to congratulate the Secretariat and the other participating organizations for the solid work which they have done. While Canada shares the cautious optimism of the study, we would emphasize that major difficulties remain in attaining the production possibilities outlined in the study. In particular, we would like to support the earlier comments relating to forestry and the ecosystem. Calculations must be made regarding the impact of the extension of arable land and new populations upon existing forest systems and wildlife zones.
It is imperative new research be undertaken to assemble the type of data that would indicatewhat trade-offs or what sacrifices must be made in order to bring new land into cultivation.In addition, the Canadian experience under international agricultural development suggests the needfor an even more careful consideration of existing constraints to any accelerated programme ofland development for food self-sufficiency. Programmes on a large scale are faced with institutionalconstraints on the part of donors and international organizations, as well as problems of therecipient countries, to absorb and manage the type of intensive technologies which could provide the necessary production increases.
I would echo the comments of earlier speakers that a major requirement of developing countries will be mobilization and training of high levels of human resources. Experience has shown a great deal of time is required to train people to manage complex technologies.
In terms of follow-up work by the FAO, emphasis will of course continue to be on the situation in developing countries especially those already identified by the study as being in a potentially critical state. We would look forward however, to this work being extended to cover the situation of China and the developing world, as well as in order to obtain a truly global appreciation of how the world hopes to cope with hunger in the year 2000.
M. DIALLO (Mali) : Le document C 83/18 est extrêmement précieux puisqu'il met à notre disposition des indications utiles tant à court terme' qu'à long terme sur le potentiel des terres en vue de l'alimentation d'une population toujours croissante, particulièrement dans les pays en voie de développement.
Cependant, autant il est toujours préférable de faire de telles études à long terme, autant nous pensons qu'il faut éviter le trop long terme pour fournir des chiffres qui pourraient être facilement mis en cause du fait même des perturbations climatiques que le monde entier commence à connaître. C'est pourquoi des prévisions à plus d'un siècle dans l'avenir nous paraissent risquées, parce qu'elles sont susceptibles de faire dévier facilement de meilleures voies et moyens pour faire face au problème.
Ceci dit, l'étude doit davantage traiter le problème de l'alimentation lié au niveau de la population et des terres disponibles sous l'angle approfondi des bras valides, car l'on sait actuellement que l'un des problèmes aigus auxquels les pays en développement, notamment ceux d'Afrique, sont confrontés se trouve être l'exode rural. Ce mal, qui a une origine socio-économique , est en train de faire vider les campagnes de leurs bras valides, ce qui fait que même de très bonnes terres disponibles en Afrique et ailleurs sûrement restent inexploitées, ou le sont insuffisamment pour en tirer le meilleur parti.
A notre avis donc le maintien pour des populations rurales, mieux le repeuplement des campagnes, doit aussi guider les conclusions de telles études concernant la population, les terres et l'alimentation.
M. MUKOLWE (Kenya): The item before us, land, food and population in our view is the base of our discussions at various fora including this Conference. FAO will certainly come in the forefront as far as land and food are concerned. I should add water and human activities in the integration.
Dr Brommer, presenting his paper accompanied by illustrative tools, conveyed a convincing story and, no doubt, left all of us convinced.
However, emphasis on food production is our preoccupation in the face of increasing population. How far shall we go to reach say, a zero or plus-zero population growth? Is this the answer?. On technology, which are the appropriate technologies to avert the situation? Is it the heavy energy intensive use, or should it be budgeted for energy, so that with less energy you get higher returns?
Finally, with the use of increased inputs what happens to the environment? It has already been mentioned on land, water and vegetation itself, the air webreathe in, and the rest? Do we need to recycle what we are using? There are many factors that interplay environmentally, socially, economically and we see the Study as the beginning of many more detailed studies in this respect.
If I may divert, my country is one of those countries with a relatively high rate of population growth. On the other hand, probably a politician would look at it as a compliment to the Government on their efforts to provide goods and services that favour such increase. However, to reverse the situation a lot of awareness, education training, commitment and possibly good will, and as the distinguished delegate from the United States put it, common sense. Well, it may be taken that way, but it can be a very time consuming training, teaching people to be aware of what is happening. However, there are so many other items that I would refer to, but in here I would only mention that the study needs to go a little bit further to get more detailed information and particularly with the beginning of agro-ecological zones in which soil studies have already been mentioned. We have been in cooperation with FAO in these aspects. We are glad now that we can go to smaller units in our planning and development. I do not think that this is the answer. More detailed studies will be required probably to go to very small watershed areas where there would be an integrated approach in planning.
Our delegation would like to echo other delegations' thinking on the need for FAO to go lower, particularly to national level to carry out studies. Since FAO is supporting the integrated watershed management, as a tool in land use and water management, we would hope that the answer probably would lie in these aspects which are very variable and desirable for more elaborate work in the future.
In Africa shifting cultivation has been blamed, and in the same tone mechanization too, has also contributed to the effect, particularly in forest areas where you would have bulldozers moving the vegetation, and with the torrential rains you have soil erosion. Well now, if we put all this together and we need to rpoduce food and we are now looking at intensifying our production, how do we then move? There is new thinking now which may not be new, in the sense of growing crops in association with tree crops. From a scientific point of view, somebody might refer to it as "agroforestry". The headquarters happen to be in my country. I think some of the answers which might be a result of international research in agroforestry might be of help to us.
We support also, the biological interplay as mentioned by Australia, and more so on the practical approach, as mentioned by the distinguished member from China. Petroleum based fertilizers are what we normally think of when we have to think of increased yields or improvement of our soil fertility. But, if we could look at the biological interplay in nature, as put Mother Nature, I think it is an area to which great attention should be paid.
With the increasing population, and more so for the African countries, or developing countries, it is normally destined for urban areas. Well, the case here is to reverse the outflow to urban areas by simply improving conditions in the rural areas and this is one of the recommendations under WCARRD. Redistribution is probably a fair policy and this will mean the emergence of small farms. The answer probably will lie in intensive food production on a family level, integrated with rational of optimal use of national resources including water energy. This will also determine what the people themselves consider is essential for their survival.
We commend the FAO for this preliminary work since land is becoming scarce, population increasing and yet food is to be produced. The small farmer is a target throughout the world. Let us have more studies in comparison by regions.
S. ALI KETRANDJI (Algerie): La présentation remarquable de l'étude "Terre,, alimentation et population" par le Dr. Bommer m'autorise à passer directement à quelques réflexions d'ordre général. Je retiens d'abord que les besoins futurs des populations sont envisagés non seulement en fonction de la démographie, mais également en fonction de l'accroissement du niveau de vie. L'approche relativise ainsi l'importance de la variable démographique, et introduit à la question primordiale de l'évolution de l'autonomie alimentaire en fonction du développement économique global. Il ne faut pas perdre de vue en effet que la tendance à l'autonomie alimentaire n'est pas antinomique du développement; elle peut au contraire en être un principe de base. C'est, me semble-t-il, assez implicite dans le paragraphe 2 de l'introduction du document C 83/18.
Au niveau planétaire, il existe, selon l'étude, suffisamment de terres cultivables pour assurer le minimum alimentaire à la population mondiale à condition qu'il y ait un transfert massif de denrées alimentaires et de populations à l'échelle du monde.
Il me semble que la première condition énoncée apporte un argument de poids à la quasi-unanimité qui s'est dégagée hier sur les objectifs révisés de l'ajustement agricole international.
Les résultats au niveau régional invitent implicitement, me semble-t-il, la communauté internationale à tout mettre en oeuvre pour faciliter les efforts de coopération régionale en matières agricole et alimentaire tels qu'ils sont énoncés par exemple dans le chapitre "Agricole" du Plan d'action de Lagos.
L'accroissement de l'utilisation des terres nécessaires à la nourriture dépend de l'accès aux intrants et des moyens institutionnels et technologiques appropriés, La question qui vient à l'esprit immédiatement a trait à la volonté politique de la communauté internationale, et principalement des pays qui disposent du potentiel scientifique et technique, de mettre ce potentiel au service des populations des pays en voie de développement; en fait, la technologie, dans le monde actuel, se vend et s'achète; c'est une marchandise produite par des structures oligopolistiques. On doute fortement que de telles structures aient un quelconque intérêt à s'atteler à imaginer des technologies appropriées.
Quant aux 19 pays qui seront dans l'incapacité de nourrir leur population, même à des conditions de production optimales, leur situation spécifique pourra-t-elle s'améliorer dans le cadre du système économique international actuel? Qu'adviendra-t-il de "leur droit de déterminer leurs propres politiques et priorités nationales"? Telles sont les questions que l'on peut se poser pour reprendre les termes contenus dans les principes et programmes d'action du CMRADR.
Enfin, cette étude a l'immense mérite de permettre d'en finir avec les visions catastrophistes en matière démographique et met la variable population dans de bonnes perspectives, car comme le dit le document, l'aide financière au plan international "risque d'être encore plus déterminante qu'on ne l'avait cru jusqu'alors" (page 8, par, 3),
A long terme, ce dernier facteur me semble prédominant.
La délégation algérienne accueille donc avec beaucoup de faveur cette étude présentée à notre examen; même si elle regrette que les questions primordiales de politique internationale soient quelque peu laissées dans l'ombre, elle appelle à la poursuite de l'effort dans ce type d'approche. Merci.
H. MOHAMADI (Sudan) (original language Arabic) : Allow me at the outset to commend this important and excellent document C 83/18. I would like to congratulate Dr Bommer for his lucid introduction of this document. I should also like to commend FAO for opening the door to discuss this important question, which is considered one of the basic foundations of the relevant policies and strategies at the country, regional and international level. I believe there is no need for me to stress the idea that processing, identifying and evaluating land and water resources and the land potential in terms of man and animal is considered as the cornerstone of sound planning and optimum use of natural resources in order to meet ever increasing human needs.
It is well known that this question is closely linked with many other important questions. For example, this process is closely linked with the increase in food production, food security, regional and international cooperation. It paves the way for reaching a comprehensive and integrated rural development that secures equity and prosperity for all, particularly in the least developing regions. Hence, my country's delegation calls for including this item permanently in the agenda of FAO regional and international conferences.
We also call upon the FAO to intensify its efforts in consolidating the efforts exerted at the country level in order to complete the basic data and information and to overcome the obstacles hindering the efficiency and reliability of such data through the conducting of more detailed studies in cooperation with the Organizations concerned.
We would have liked to have had access to the detailed studies covered by this Report. However, we do realize that this preliminary Report, though brief and general, yet it gave us useful indications of the measures and priorities that should be pursued, for example, as far as aids are concerned, their levels and varieties, and with regard to the orientation of agricultural input. It also gives us an indication of the expected impact of such a process on the eradication of hunger and malnutrition according to the three levels of production inputs. Hence, we call upon the international community to raise such levels to lessen the number of countries suffering from critical conditions in a bid to strike a balance between food and population. We subscribe to what has been said by the previous speakers about the use of up-to-date techniques such as remote sensing. We also Support the idea calling for a balanced development of rainfed regions in order to increase production and to achieve equitable development in the different regions.
We should also take into account surface and underground water resources and their potentials in providing and ameliorating food supplies.
In conclusion, I commended in general terms on this document without going into details in order to be as brief as possible as you asked us to do, Mr Chairman, but should the need arise, we will deal with more of the details in the coming days.
V. HJORT (Denmark) : Speaking on behalf of the Nordic countries, I would like to express our full acknowledgement of the study conducted by FAO on land, food and population.
The long-term perspective study represents an interesting new approach to the relationship between land, food, and population. It attempts to quantify the relation between agricultural production resources and population growth. The study helps us to look beyond immediate problems and be aware that in the long term population supporting capacities in developing countries will be even more critical.
The Nordic countries agree with the Secretariat that the study should be regarded as a first approximation which requires further refinement. We are aware of the new and innovative character of the study and of the limitations in it. Therefore, the Nordic countries wish to consider the assumptions of the study with a critical mind in order to achieve results as realistic as possible.
In the view of the Nordic countries, the present study must be followed up taking into due consideration the lines agreed to by the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development as well as matters relating to consumption and nutrition.
The scope of the study should be further widened so as to take account of a number of factors which cannot be ignored.
Particular consideration must be given to the fisheries sector, which contributes significantly to basic food needs. We do not get a true picture of food production potentials if we only take agricultural land resources into account and ignore the resources of the sea.
Moreover, the study restricts forestry to land unsuitable for crop and grazing. World food production capacity is most directly affected by deforestation which entails erosion and changes in the atmosphere.
Regarding crop requirements, the paper implies that: "the changes in diet implied by the optimal crops pattern may be hard to achieve". This perception of the direction in which dietary changes take place is, in our view, inappropriate. The optimal crop mix is normally embedded in the traditional culturally and ecologically adapted food patterns. It is when these systems are broken up too rapidly that consumption patterns and nutritional conditions may be negatively affected.
In choosing between policy options, the relationship between production systems, consumption patterns, and nutritional conditions should be fully understood. It would therefore be most useful if FAO could utilize available studies and arrange for new ones to shed more light on the relationship between ecological, nutritional, and production perspectives of different food systems.
The issue will be examined by the International Conference on Population in 1984. The results of that conference together with close cooperation with other relevant UN bodies could form a good framework for FAO participation and further involvement in this field.
The Nordic countries welcome this initiative by FAO and look forward to cooperating in any way which could make this study progress even further.
H.S. BAR-SHAI (Israel): First of all, I would like to congratulate Dr Bommer for preparing this important study and for the comprehensive introduction of the material under discussion, and in a general way we can agree to its contents and accept it.
Like our colleagues, I was glad to note that the global results "of the study confirmed that the world as a whole should have enough cultivable land to feed more than the maximum population it is ever likely to have to support".
We in Israel know that it can be done, we know it too well, having developed and advanced agriculture in a country with problems of land, water and labor scarcity. Bringing the developing world to a situation where more food is produced for the growing number of mouths and the realization of the conclusions of this study involves many steps like applying more intensive methods of agricultural production. Changing the present methods is involved in changing the attitudes of the farmers themselves, and as the United States suggested earlier, the best methods to improve agricultural production will be of no consequence if they are not accepted by the farmers themselves. Due to a new division of labour and agriculture, more and more international cooperation will be required in order to transfer staple foods from abundant areas to areas which are short in staples but which can or will have to exchange food for other products, and as we all know, this is a major problem today of international cooperation, I mean.
This also means, as I have mentioned earlier, a greater emphasis on development of food processing industries. These and other tasks may look overwhelming because of the efforts required to bring about this necessary revolution; yes, this is a revolution in the present concepts, but they are not insurmountable, as the experience of Israel demonstrates.
Let me at this stage descend from the macro to the micro level, especially regarding arid and semi-arid areas like Israel, bearing in mind that the so-called marginal arid land of today may become the fertile lands of tomorrow, provided the resources for innovative tillage and water research are invested.
I am indebted to France and Barbados for having brought up Israel as an example for a country which has progressed beyond the stages referred to by the study under discussion. We believe that our experience can be useful even to countries at earlier stages of agricultural development. One should bear in mind that we in Israel grow wheat, other cereals and animal fodder, too, which are again among the basic crops mentioned in the study.
Israel has applied many methods and means for intensification of production of various agricultural crops, among them yielding more rain from clouds by chemical treatment re-utilization and treatment of waste for irrigation of certain crops, re-utilization of industrial and animal wastes for the extraction of protein and other nourishing materials for specific use, and of course other means. Among some of the recent research carried out in Israel, I would like to mention production of high protein forage bushes irrigated by sea water. The problems of the palatability of these forages are as yet unsolved, but the quantity of biomass under this technology has been significant. Chemical treatment of forage by use of industrial gypsum which enables the high infiltration of rain water in semi-arid regions, coupled with the use of sodium polyphosphate compound to increase runoff of rain to collecting areas where industrial gypsum is applied for better rainfall harvest.
Another research and development endeavour undertaken in Israel is the development of micro-catchment areas of flood irrigation in desert regions based on the designing of ratio between contributing areas to collecting areas. Of late, technological and engineering inputs have made this aspect of water conservation for pasture and fruit production in desert areas of importance in the not too distant future. The ratio of contributing to collecting areas under the ancient/new system has been to date 5:1. Israel is, of course, ready, as we have mentioned before, to share our experience to the benefit of interested countries and cooperate in the application of the noble and much needed target to which this survey points.
Finally, I am looking forward to seeing further elaboration of the points raised in a rather general way by the survey in each country. As has been mentioned, the present survey is not too detailed in reference to smaller countries and areas like Israel. Elaboration is also required on further points as raised by other speakers. I should also like to see more crops covered by the survey, some of them basic like animals and sea resources such as fish and algae, some of them less basic but which assume, and may assume in the future, a growing importance in world trade and in the economic welfare of the nations concerned.
This is not to detract from the importance and significance of the present undertaking, for which again I thank the staff who prepared it.
W. NAIMOOL (Trinidad and Tobago): Mr Chairman, on page 4 of this most perceptive document which we are addressing we are told as follows: "The global results of the study confirm that the world as a whole should have enough cultivable land to feed for more than the maximum population it is ever likely to have to support." This statement goes - I think quite properly - beyond the 117 countries studied in this perceptive document. All things being normal, if not equal, I would suggest that that statement could have, without risk, been much more positive to the extent than one could have said that the world, all things being normal, will have enough cultivable land to feed more than its possible maximum population. This implies that, in terms of food supply, population magnitude can be accommodated. And, of course, when we speak of food and population, we naturally do not exclude food supplies from all our relevant water sources.
But, as the study goes on to say, the feeding of the global population would presuppose massive movements of food and population, and these might not be feasible. One point which would appear to be of the essence, therefore, is the need to look carefully at population growth. I do not feel I have to dwell on this.
As in most, if not all, things, Mr Chairman, we find that when the crunch comes we have, as individuals, and as individual countries, essentially to fall back on ourselves. There is no ultimately stronger or more reliable base. We understand full well that some countries are regularly scourged with catastrophic situations which, despite the most heroic of efforts, gravely militate against food production and self-sufficiency. But it is still open to serious doubt whether some countries, despite possessing rich potential for agricultural abundance, have been dedicatedly committing themselves to the realization of that potential, especially in the difficult area of population motivation. And yet, even as I say this, I recall, and must make mention of, the punishing disincentives to developing countries of adverse terms of trade and hydra-headed protectionism.
We appreciate, and are impressed by, the strides which have been made and will continue to be made in the field of technology, including food technology. But clearly technology per se is not the sole answer. We must look at other facts of the picture, and I wish to refer very briefly to about three of these.
The first is the environment. We must be ever conscious of the absolute need to protect it. Things cannot live and grow where the environment has been degraded to the point of sterility. Here we emphasise our growing concern about the use - indiscriminate use, at times - of unsuitable pesticides. In this area, FAO must continue and greatly increase its good work.
The second is so simple a fact that it often tends to be overlooked. It was made in Commission II by my head of delegation and deserves repetition. I speak of in some cases the virtually total neglect, and in other cases gradual extinction, of a country's indigenous fruits and vegetables. The two things, neglect and extinction, are, of course, inter-related. These commodities of which I speak have been, or are being, replaced in countries such as my own by often inferior imports, and this is a tremendous pity. They must be vigorously cultivated anew given their just and proper place in our economies.
The third has to do with taste. I understand, and have no desire to dispute, my brother's taste, especially if taste has been conditioned, to speak broadly, by cultural imperatives. But I would venture to suggest that there is ample room within the context of our constraints and within the context of the individual country itself, even one as small as my own, for expanding the range of acceptable foods. Taste is an acquired thing, sometimes acquired very quickly. One might find, for example, that a lettuce or tomato or avocado salad is no tastier than a salad of nopalitos, a kind of cactus that grows in desert areas of Latin America.
The problems discerned in document C 83/18 are serious. While it is proper and necessary to use the most sophisticated resources at our disposal to meet the challenge of food and population, we must not lose sight of simple things that go such a long way and can mean so much.
Mr Chairman, all things being normal, there is much more than enough land. There can be much more than enough food, despite the difficulties. Our achievement will rest on the quality of our will and our effort. FAO's role here is most clear.
A. NAGA (Japan): First of all, my delegation would like to congratulate the Secretariat for the concise and analyticál document C 83/18 before us.
This document is particularly important because it not only presents the mere results of the study, but it also gives certain indications for the development of the policy direction for the developing countries by presenting long-term food production potentialities.
We hope that FAO will continue to strengthen the works in this field, including a follow-up of this study, in coordination with other international organizations such as UNFPA which are involved in population studies.
I believe that FAO can also play a leading role in assisting the developing countries in the study of potential population supporting capacities, better land use planning and management, etc.
Japan is deeply concerned about the current land degradation problem which is now becoming a serious problem in the world. In this connection, Japan has made a new contribution to the FAO Trust Fund Programme on the investigation of soil conservation methods this year.
A. SAISSI (Maroc): Je voudrais dire tout d'abord que cette étude, très séduisante sur le plan thé-torique et qui ne peut revêtir de ce fait qu'un caractère préliminaire, représente une excellente initiative de la part de la FAO.
L'approche méthodologique qui a été élaborée peut être appliquée à l'étude des pays en développement en l'adaptant bien entendu au contexte socio-économique local de chaque pays et au caractère de son milieu naturel tant au point de vue climatique que pédologique. Cette étude devra pousser à la réalisation d'études approfondies dans chacun de nos pays. Je voudrais faire part de certaines remarques d'ordre général :
Premièrement, tout calcul de potentiel étant lui-même intrinsèquement évolutif car comme le dit le rapport lui-même, à propos des limites de la méthodologie adoptée, un certain nombre de facteurs peuvent, en sus de l'utilisation des intrants, favoriser l'accroissement de la production, notamment la recherche, la formation et l'adaptation de l'utilisation des sols aux besoins de consommation prioritaires, une actualisation régulière de cette étude est nécessaire.
Deuxièmement la mise en oeuvre d'une éducation nutritionnelle permanente alliée à une répartition équilibrée des ressources alimentaires à l'intérieur du pays est de nature à augmenter les capacités des pays à mieux faire face aux besoins vitaux de la population.
Troisièmement, tout développement de la production alimentaire, est étroitement lié au renforcement de nos ressources humaines en milieu agricole; c'est là un facteur qu'il convient de privilégier dans le cadre de notre action en faveur de l'alimentation car le maintien de l'agriculteur, du vrai agriculteur, sur sa terre est essentiel. Une politique encourageant une telle fixation de la population agricole et la formation de jeunes agriculteurs compétents est donc fondamentale.
Quatrièmement, toute stratégie visant l'utilisation rationnelle des terres agricoles doit s'efforcer d'éviter que l'extension de l'urbanisation, le phénomène de l'érosion, le non-respect de la vocation réelle des sols ou la répartition désiquilibrée des différentes infrastructures relatives au support et à l'utilisation de la production agricole, constituent une perte de terres arables ou un frein à la rentabilisation optimale des terres agricoles.
C'est pourquoi, je pense qu'une telle stratégie demeurera tributaire de la conception d'une bonne organisation de l'espace agricole et rural dans le cadre de l'établissement de plans d'aménagement du territoire.
J. NGOULOU (Congo): Je me joins à toutes les autres délégations pour féliciter la FAO de son excellente initiative sur l'élaboration d'une étude concernant la population et sur la capacité physique potentielle des terres à répondre aux besoins de la population des pays en développement par rapport à leur population présente et prévisible. C'est une première étude et c'est aussi une première projection qui ne représente pas une fin en soi. La projection de la population mondiale qui devrait s'élever, selon les bureaux des Nations Unies, à un peu plus de 10 milliards d'habitants après 2095 doit être prise comme bonne information car au fil des années ces données seront corrigées et réajustées, j'en suis sûr. La délégation congolaise, tout en félicitant la FAO, souhaiterait que cet effort de recherche soit poursuivi sans relâche et que les pays soient traités distinctement cas par cas. Cela devrait être le cas pour les grands ensembles régionaux.
Pour réussir une telle mission, la FAO devra aider les gouvernements à créer des centres nationaux d'étude de sols, comme cela est le cas en République populaire du Congo. Ce centre national d'étude de sols a pour tâche principale d'identifier les surfaces à affecter à l'agriculture dans l'optique bien comprise d'une planification et d'un aménagement de la mise en valeur des terres pour l'obtention des meilleurs rendements nécessitant un minimum d'investissement matériel et financier.
Ce travail de classification zonale des sols au Congo bénéficie fort heureusement de l'appui technique et scientifique de la FAO. Ce document, qui attire l'attention des gouvernements sur la croissance démographique et qui sonne l'alerte sur leurs capacités respectives à donner de plus en plus à manger à une population qui sera plus nombreuse et exigeante aujourd'hui et demain, m'amène à poser la question suivante: Sommes-nous si optimistes de croire que d'ici l'an 2000 les pays en développement vont rétablir un équilibre réel entre le taux de croissance de la population et le taux de croissance de la production alimentaire ? Personnellement les hypothèse émises sur les politiques agricoles dans l'optique de l'accroissement de la production alimentaire de pays en développement exigent un investissement humain, matériel et financier très important que seuls ces pays ne pourraient honorer dans un avenir proche.
Ayant à l'esprit le coût de la lutte contre la désertification galopante en Afrique, je souhaiterais que dans cette étude sur la démographie, la FAO mette un accent particulier sur le phénomène d'exode rural, comme l'a si bien signifié le délégué du Mali, car dans les pays en développement s'opère actuellement un phénomène de plus en plus ahurissant du dépeuplement des campagnes au profit des zones urbaines. L'agriculture devient une activité aux mains d'une population dont la moyenne d'âge oscille autour de 50 ans. Ce vieillissement de la population agricole active, qui doit chaque jour nourrir plus de bouches invalides parce que n'appartenant pas aux sphères de production, devra, à mon avis, faire l'objet dès à présent des préoccupations de la FAO en vue d'aider les pays en développement à résoudre cet épineux problème du maintien de la population jeune à la campagne et de la répartition spatiale des populations sur le territoire national par la mise en place d'un programme d'action visant à la reconquête de l'espace national et à la revalorisation du travail de la terre.
S.M. SHARIR (Iraq) (original language Arabic): At the outset, I should like to thank the FAO Secretariat for preparing this valuable and excellent document on land, food and population. The document under consideration demonstrates that the world population is steadily increasing. Despite continuing efforts to increase food production, hundreds of millions of people in the developing countries are suffering from critical conditions where the available potentialities of the countries are insufficient to provide their people with a decent standard of living.
Our attention has been drawn already to the fact that in 1975, 90 developing countries were cultivating 40 percent of their arable land, and that this would decrease to only 50 percent in the year 2000.
We support the idea calling for the exertion of greater efforts at country level in order to realize a greater measure of self-sufficiency, but we all know this cannot be achieved unless fertile and arable land is available, unless there is sufficient water for irrigation, and unless there are production inputs such as improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. Farmers and technicians should be trained. Further attention should be focussed on agricultural extension, rural development, technology, application and modern production techniques through the efficient use of mechanization. Agricultural studies and research should be conducted to find the best varieties, the most appropriate means of production suitable for the environment and local climatic conditions. This cannot be achieved unless the necessary financial resources are available and unless, in the various countries, adequate plans are laid down in accordance with financial and economic needs.
We in Iraq give first priority in our development plans to irrigation projects, land reclamation and soil conservation. We take into account that the technical application and use of up-to-date techniques is impossible without having fertile and productive soil. As this kind of soil provides the farmer with an income through yield increase of the productive surface of his land, he can thus secure a decent life for his family. We support the idea of laying down more detailed agricultural policies and plans at national levels with a long-term view, looking towards the year 2000. Thus, natural resources and human capabilities would be invested to produce food supplies in order to eradicate hunger and malnutrition and to strike a balance between food production and populations.
In Iraq, being a developing country, we have focussed attention on rural development, since it is the basis of agricultural development. Much attention has been given to such things as land distribution to farmers, and the provision of production inputs such as electricity, water and road network facilities in rural areas. These infrastructures are fundamental factors in encouraging rural populations to stay on their land and to increase food production. We believe in the necessity of self-sufficiency, as food aids are only temporary, and no country can depend solely on such aid. The people should eat from what they can produce.
H.MALTEZ (Panamá): Permítanos, señor Presidente, en primer lugar, unirnos a las delegaciones que nos precedieron en el uso de la palabra para agradecer y felicitar a la Secretaria y al Dr Boramer por el interesante documento y presentación sobre el tema "Las tierras, los alimentos y la población" sometido a nuestra consideración.
Deseamos asimismo expresar nuestra complacencia por la original metodología y contexto del documento, por la franqueza de su lenguaje y la claridad del examen realizado. La delegación de Panamá, al identificarse con el contenido y los propósitos del documento, desea expresar algunas observaciones, sobre todo del carácter conceptual que dicho documento le sugiere.
El primer comentario que le merece a nuestra delegación el análisis del documento C 83/18, es reconocer que dicho estudio, si bien como en el mismo se señala, tiene algunas, a nuestro juicio, importantes y serias limitaciones que pueden deformar sus resultados, indica una tendencia que puede tener importantes repercusiones para el oportuno establecimiento de las prioridades y la estrategia a largo plazo, necesarias para planificar las opciones para el desarrollo futuro, tendientes, entre otras cosas, a lograr un mayor grado de autosuficiencia y de seguridad alimentaria en los puoblos en desarrollo.
En términos globales, el resultado del estudio es alentador en el sentido que nos indica que debería haber en todo el mundo, sin tener en cuenta los recursos de los países desarrollados, suficientes tierras cultivables para alimentar al doble de población existente en 1975, en los 117 países en desarrollo examinados y un 50 por ciento más de su población prevista para el año 2000.
No obstante, estos resultados globales nos merecen particular atención, el hecho de que sólo 52 de los países estudiados podrían, a nivel inferior de insumos, alimentar a sus respectivas poblaciones previstas para el año 2000; mientras que 28 países podrán alimentar a sus poblaciones previstas, utilizando todas sus tierras cultivables con un nivel intermedio de insumos; 18 países utilizando el nivel superior de insumos y 19 países no podrán alimentar a sus poblaciones en el año 2000, ni siquiera logrando el más alto nivel de insumos.
Estos hechos nos llaman a serias reflexiones, sobre todo considerando las urgentes necesidades de los pueblos en desarrollo en materia de cooperación técnica, desarrollo institucional, desarrollo rural y tenencia de tierras, insuficiencia de recursos económicos y financieros, falta de tecnologías adecuadas, etc.; lo cual dificultará, sin lugar a dudas, la utilización de las tierras disponibles para la producción agrícola.
Deseamos manifestarnos de acuerdo con el concepto de que el factor tiempo representa una limitante fundamental para lograr objetivos sugeridos por el estudio y dentro de este contexto adquiere gran importancia el factor de orden económico, social y político que no podemos subestimar.
La delegación de Panamá coincide plenamente con la distinguida delegación de México al estimar que los componentes de orden social son de primordial importancia para un estudio como el propuesto y que el mismo no puede ser completo sin su oportuna consideración.
Estimamos conveniente recordar que muchas de las tierras cultivables disponibles son tierras marginadas, entendiendo como tal una deficiente integración y participación del área con el resto del país, no solamente desde el punto de vista geográfico, sino también cultural y económico, además de un cierto grado de aislamiento político. Por lo general, este tipo de enfoque del problema coincide con otro problema de índole social y económica que tiende a aumentar también los costos de las inversiones necesarias para su desarrollo. Se trata, en efecto, de zonas poco pobladas, cuyos habitantes además viven en condiciones de gran dispersión y padecen serios problemas de tipo sanitario, nutricional, educativo y de empleo. A ello se agrega la falta de vías de comunicación, de fuentes adecuadas de energía y de vínculos estables y seguros con la economía nacional del mercado.
Todas estas causas hacen que nuestros campesinos, en muchos casos, abandonen sus tierras atraídos por la comodidad de la ciudad y sus actividades de servicio.
A tal propósito y para terminar, deseamos recordar el pensamiento del desaparecido dirigente y líder del proceso nacionalista panameño, General Omar Torrijos Herrera, el cual consideraba - cito -"que todos los esfuerzos para el desarrollo de áreas marginadas deben plantearse, en primer término, el problema de hacer habitable la región para los seres humanos que la fecundan con su trabajo".
R. SENTÜRK (Turkey): On behalf of the Turkish delegation I would like to associate myself with those delegations who took the floor before me and expressed their appreciation of both the document and its presentation by Dr Bommer.
It has been an instructive session for everybody concerned with the overall purpose of agriculture which as we understand it is the production of crops and livestock for eventual consumption by mankind. A long time has passed since Malthus predicted a catastrophe for the world due to the ever increasing population. We know that the population increase is not the only factor to be taken into account when making projections for the future of the world.
The document presented this morning brings clarification to various other dimensions of the global problem facing the world with regard to the food needs of people.
The assumptions of the study have been underlined in the document presented. Naturally the findings and recommendations of the study have to be viewed and interpreted keeping these assumptions in mind.
As the results of studies achieved in the fields of food and population, even at the lowest possible technological level, it has been understood that there might not be much threat in terms of food production with regard to the world's population to be reached in the year 2000.
Regarding the results of the same studies at country bases, it is observed that at present 19 countries would not be able to feed their population in 2000. For this reason, international concern has to be concentrated on these countries and during such activities, non-agricultural incomes which such countries enjoy would have to be taken into account.
In the field of food and population, the findings on the capacities of the countries in feeding their populations, are based on general information. Whereas in each country there exist different agro-ecological zones, the production capacities of these local centres have to be evaluated in the light of more accurate statistical data. In Turkey, a project aiming at establishing the production capacities of several agro-ecological zones at different technological levels has been initiated. The project has also the aim of identifying the most advantageous crop patterns for each agro-ecological zone, based on technical, economic and social considerations. We believe that the implementation of such a project requires some preconditions covering the availability of accurate data on the resources at hand, such as land and water.
I wish to stress that when analysing a complex problem like assessing the feeding capacity of countries, accurate data not only on land and water but also on all other subjects are needed. The characteristics of population, forestry and fishery resources are just some of these other topics related to the major issue of feeding capacity.
In countries with developed statistical organizations such analyses may yield reliable results. But it is a sad fact that in most of the countries, particularly in developing countries, statistical organizations are not yet fully developed.
In the past, FAO's efforts have concentrated mainly on the agricultural census to be undertaken every 10 years. Our experiences with the censuses of agriculture indicate that a census is a very costly operation and it takes a long time to produce statistics because it includes so many questions. On the other hand, there are subjects which the census does not cover. For the planners and the decision-makers up-to-date and reliable statistics are needed on all phases of agriculture and related subjects. To produce these statistics an approach broader than a single decennial census is needed. This broader approach to collecting agricultural statistics should aim at the development of various less costly surveys and record keeping which will take some of the load away from the census and provide timely data. FAO has been recommending the establishment of such a broad approach to collecting agricultural statistics. But this recommendation has not yet been fully documented to make the recommendation operational.
We believe that FAO should prepare technical documents on developing a broad system of agricultural data collection activities in which the census in only one component with the objective of establishing a national agricultural information system. Such documents will be highly appreciated. Such an information system, we believe, is the sound base for country level studies recommended in the document we are discussing.
G. V. GANTCHEV (Bulgaria): First of all I would like to congratulate the Secretariat on including this important item on the agenda of the conference. I would also like to congratulate Dr Bommer on his excellent introduction to the document.
We think that the conclusions and recommendations drafted in the document definitely contribute to clarify the view of the difficult situation with food in the world which we are facing now. In our view it can also encourage new initiatives in this field.
The interest in the world food problem during the last ten years is not only undiminished, it has considerably increased. There are understandable reasons for such an increases; the main one, in our view, is that the aims of the 1974 World Food Conference have not been achieved. World production of basic food products, particularly in the developing countries, has not achieved desirable rates and scales of increase. As a result, the level of food security is far from satisfactory. The discrepancy between the food produced and the food needed per capita is increasing in many parts of the world. The great difference between the quantities of food produced in the developed and the developing countries forces further increases of imports of foodstuffs on the developing countries and as a result the debts in those countries continue to mount.
I think we must agree with the main conclusion of the document that despite the complicated world food situation, there are enough facilities to produce more food if all national, regional and global resources for food development are managed correctly and if the proper agricultural development is adopted. We share the view that in this case humanity could be supplied with enough foodstuffs even if it increased to six thousand million at the end of the century. For this purpose it is necessary to take into account all technological, economic and social aspects of the problem.
In our country we have achieved good results in solving the food problems for the last 30 to 40 years. I would like to inform delegates that after having studied the methodology of agro-ecological zones, Bulgarian scientists propose to create agro-ecological teams. The country has been subdivided into 36 regions and a team has been assigned to each one. These teams are applying the knowledge acquired for each region in order to obtain maximum production, taking into consideration the natural and economic conditions of each particular area.
The first results that were recorded proved to be encouraging. This permits the coordination of all the scientists ' activities and also the mobilisation of the population for better use of natural resources.
We are ready to share our experience with every country interested and we hope that FAO could provide facilites for the experts of such countries to come and familiarise themselves with achievements in this respect.
D. MOUTSATSOS (Greece): The Greek delegation definitely appreciates the fact that this paper, a study on the important issue of land, food and population, is under discussion at this conference. We believe that the findings of this study, although there are some restrictive assumptions, will prove most useful in raising important policy questions and implications. Such questions are directly related to agricultural development policies and strategies, and especially to the need for ensuring food security and raising the rate of self-sufficiency in developing countries.
The question of development is not simply a pure economic and technical issue. At the same time, it is mainly a social issue. Thus we are of the opinion that in studying the issue of land, food and population, it is important to take into account the relevant socio-economic factors.
We therefore support the idea of more detailed national studies, with less restrictive assumptions, incorporating the relevant socio-economic factors.
J.D.L. RICHARDS (New Zealand): The New Zealand delegation very much appreciates Dr Bommer's excellent presentation on this subject. The study gives us a very useful perspective on the inter-relationship of land potential and population, and such a study obviously creates awareness of these relationships and makes its contribution through this understanding.
There has been some discussion of inputs, it is an economic axiom that the level of production output is limited by the level of inputs which can be applied within the constraint of a certain price for each. The constraints on inputs are the effective limit on food production. The study shows that generally land availability is not a production limitation, though it clearly could be in some regions.
My delegation wishes to recommend that the future direction of this work should be to identify constraints and superimpose them on the study. For example, the idea of high inputs implies that fertiliser use would increase many times. What is the feasibility of doing this? If this analysis casts doubt on the availability of extra inputs to cover the whole cultivable area, then what is available has to be used to best advantage, but with what consequence for these potential estimates?
In reality, the world food production level is limited to its current level because we have limited resources. The focus of our work has to be on lifting these constraints in a balanced way. We should also remember that the population which can be supported in any region also depends upon the availability of people to utilize resources other than land: human skills, for example, and industrial raw materials; and to trade these for their food requirements.
D.F.R. BOMMER (Assitant Director-General, Agriculture Department): First of all I would like to express, on behalf of the Director-General, our deep appreciation for the discussions and the various comments made. The very positive comments provided to the study, as well as the critical ones, which have raised many questions related to the present work done and the future course of the work to be undertaken.
First of all I would like to pass on the numerous positive comments to our colleagues who have collaborated with us in preparing the study, particularly the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, colleagues who have been here. Last but not least, thanks to our colleagues who have done the study, Dr Dudal and, in particular, Dr Higgins, who is, and was at the time, the leader of this undertaking. At the same time we would like to put on record our gratitude for the worldwide collaboration we had in undertaking this study. There were quite a number of experts from various member countries who have advised us on the methodology and on the direction and quidance. Certainly, as I heard from the comments made by some delegations, we can further count on this collaboration and we would certainly like to make full use of it.
Listening to the very important interventions you have made, I felt that the study has already met its last objective. It has provoked a very lively debate and has provoked thoughts, and will do so by all seeing the study. At the same time it provokes a lot of criticism in the way of limitations, on what should be done and could have been done, in addition what type of conclusions are being drawn from it. It was interesting to listen to quite a wide area of conclusions which are being drawn from such a study by various delegations.
Mr Chairman, if you agree, I now turn to Dr Dudal to continue from here, to reply to the various comments and questions raised, to provide further clarification.
R.J. DUDAL (Director, Land and Water Development Division): I should like to respond to some of the major issues which were raised during today's debate. The first question referred to the global value of the study. It is realised that the study is devoted essentially to the population carrying capacity in developing countries. In fact, they are the ones who are primarily involved in land, food and population relationships. In order to have a global overview, the production potential of the developed countries would also need to be assessed, including opportunities for international trade and international agricultural adjustment. Such a study was, however, beyond our resources but we are glad to say that a number of the developed countries are cooperating with us, and are producing this type of information for their own countries.
The second point related to the population figures which we have used. The figures which we have used are those of the projections by 1980 of the UNFPA long-range population projections. We have taken the medium projection, namely 10.2 billion people by the year 2095. We could, as it was suggested, also take the high level and the low level projections, but we have chosen the medium one as a basis for our work. I should like to stress, however, that our population carrying capacity study has been made for the population of year 2000 and not 2095. This population is by now already underway, so we feel confident that the figures we have used in terms of the year 2000, are probably near to reality. What is important is not only the absolute figures at the global level but the geographical distribution of the populations of the future in relation to available land and water resources in different parts of the world.
Forest requirements. We should like to assure you that the ecological aspects of land development will be fully taken into account in fact, the protective role of the forest has been taken care of since the steeper slopes were not considered suitable for cultivation. It has not been possible in this regional and global study to take into account specific requirements for fuel wood and timber. However, this will be done at the country level.
Level of inputs. May I stress that by high level of inputs we do not necessarily mean types and quantities of inputs presently applied in temperate regions. We fully realise that these inputs should be appropriate to the soil and climatic conditions in developing countries, including organic recycling, biological nitrogen fixation, improved animal drawn equipment, integrated pest control measures, multiple cropping etcetera, adapted to the experience and practices which farmers have developed for their own environment in the developing countries. We should like to note, however, that high level of inputs immediately should imply soil conservation measures. Indeed, the land resource base cannot be taken for granted and is not static. We act, therefore, on the recommendations included in the world's soil charter which the FAO adopted at its previous Session.
Irrigation. With regard to irrigation potential we have used the figures of projected expansion of irrigated land in the countries covered by the study. A more precise assessment of irrigation potential, however, will be done at country level, taking into account the type of irrigation, off-the-river, groundwater, or water transported over long distances and the level of investment which is being envisaged. We very much appreciate that the physical land resource potential which we have assessed, is meaningful only when account is taken of access to land and inputs, motivation of human resources, training and equity in the distribution of resources as brought forward sourcefully by the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development. We confirm that this study is, as we indicated, pioneering, first approximation. We fully realise this, but we are very glad that it was fully recognized that the approach was valid and constitute a good basis for further refinement. We are also gratified that the study was acknowledged to be a contribution to the establishment of world food security, to international agricultural adjustment and to the promotion of improved land use planning at different levels.
I could summarize these remarks in indicating additional factors and asnects which will be included in the more detailed country studies which a number of delegations have recommended we should carry out and which I am glad to say is foreseen in our Programme of Work and Budget for 1984-85.
If we divide the additional factors into two, physical and socio-economic inputs.
Firstly, on the physical side we shall certainly be considering slimatic/soil and terrain factors at a much more detailed level, at a scale 5-10 times larger, than our regional study. This will allow consideration of sub-national administrative area circumstances which it was not possible to consider previously. We will also be considering a much larger number of input/land use alternative, including those particularly adapted to specific local land conditions and circumstances, for example, part mechanization. Also additional crops including cash crops, other food and non-food agricultural production, considered important at the national level, will be included. Where sufficient data is available, emphasis will also be given to further irrigation development. Protective forest requirements have been included in the regional studies (more than one-third of the land will remain under forestry) but further consideration will be given to this and.other forms of forest land use in the detailed country studies.
On the socio-economic side, if I may call it such, attention will be given to the organizational and agrarian aspects of production and development. Food security aspects will be considered together with such items as appropriate level and availability of necessary inputs.
In all this work, emphasis will be placed on undertaking such studies in close collaboration with national expertise and institutions, as well as with other appropriate UN Agencies (including UNEP). It is not our intention to provide governments with final answers, but rather to assist in the development of national resource bases and interpretative expertise to support identification of sound land use planning options and policies within the context of national economic development.
Mr Chairman, I consider it a great privilege to address this Commission and I would like to stress that I am speaking here on behalf of the three organizations who have participated in this study, UNFPA, IIASA and FAO. Within FAO to a number of sectors within the Organization, may I call them, the Statistics Division, Plant Production and Protection Division, the Office of the Assistant Director-General for the Agriculture Department, the Computer Branch, a number of consultants and experts from the countries concerned, and the Land and Water Development Division.
May I single out one person already mentioned by Dr Bommer, Mr Higgins, who is sitting behind me on my right, to whom any additional questions may be asked during the course of the Conference, in his office, either to him directly or through me. He would be only too pleased to give the additional information if so required.
El PRESIDENTE: Para contestar las preguntas relativas a estadísticas, le paso la palabra al Sr. Quance.
C.L. QUANCE (Director, Statistics Division): The distinguished delegate from Turkey, I believe, expressed concern about the inadequate statistical capability of many countries to adequately monitor and evaluate the productivity of its natural resource base and other socio-economic needs of people.
This FAO Conference is in full agreement with the concerns expressed by this delegate. We can, in fact, quote from a draft report of Commission II in its review of the Programme of Work and Budget for 1984-85. I quote "The Conference reaffirmed the importance of timely reliable and comprehensive statistics and emphasized the need to further harmonize FAO data and those of national and other international agencies. The Conference noted with satisfaction the continued emphasis given to the development and improvement of food and agricultural statistics at the country level. It noted also the link of the 1990 World Census of Agriculture Programme with a multi-year survey cycle to establish a balance between statistics on basic agricultural structures and current statistics on prices, production, food consumption, and other indicators of food security and socio-economic progress. The need for adequate training and technical back-stopping in these programmes was emphasized. The Conference expressed the desire to review the 1990 World Census of Agriculture Programme at its 1985 session".
El PRESIDENTE: Si no hubiere algún comentario, me permitiré hacer el resumen de los debates en relación a este punto 8 de nuestra agenda.
Empezaré diciendo que la Comisión reconoció que el estudio elaborado por la FAO se hizo con la participación y contacto con otros organismos del Sistema de Naciones Unidas, y que era un trabajo novedoso, útil e importante. Sobre su metodología, se reconoció la utilidad de la Carta Mundial de los Suelos y la descripción de sus características entre los 117 países estudiados, así como la definición de los tres tipos de niveles tecnológicos presentados.
Se solicitó que los países ampliaran su base estadística y que se precisaran mejor los indicadores de potencial y tecnología. Se pidió que los países pusieran mayor énfasis y que colaboraran en estudios de suelos y recursos hidráulicos y su potencial. Se solicito a FAO más datos de país por país para integrar estudios nacionales con base en censos, y con el proposito de un sistema integrado de información que facilitara una evaluación flexible que sería de utilidad a todos los países desarrollados y en desarrollo para diseñar sus políticas de asistencia y de producción agrícola. Se propuso también que este estudio incluyera a China, e incluso a los países desarrollados.
Algunas delegaciones pusieron el énfasis en ligar metodológicamente más, los aspectos demográficos al estudio. Se llamó la atención a la creciente desproporción de población en países en desarrollo y su indeseable distribución, y que ello debería ser objeto de mayor estudio. Varias delegaciones insistieron que debía ponerse mayor atención a las perspectivas económicas y los esfuerzos de seguridad alimentaria y las orientaciones del Reajuste Agrícola Internacional.
Se pidió también que la metodología incorporara un cuarto nivel tecnológico, correspondiente a la mecanización parcial del campo por ser ésta, para muchos países, una posibilidad más realista dentro de sus alcances tecnológicos.
La Comisión solicitó pues que FAO, en su carácter de líder en esta materia, y en colaboración con otras organizaciones, continuara este tipo de estudios y ampliara sus miras para incluir una visión más integrada de los escenarios previsibles. Se solicitó presentar nuevos estudios actualizados a plazos regulares.
En relación a los resultados del estudio, se confirmó que el mundo era perfectamente capaz de producir, a nivel global, tantos o más alimentos que los necesitados por la población previsible para el año 2000, y aun posteriormente; y que la FAO debería seguir contestando sobre cuántos seres humanos puede sustentar nuestra tierra.
Algunas delegaciones calificaron al estudio de optimista en sus aspectos generales, y que los grandes obstáculos al aumento y disponibilidad de alimentos a nivel regional y nacional, debían estudiarse aún con más detenimiento y profundidad.
Se tomó nota de las posibilidades de satisfacción de las necesidades de una población cincuenta por ciento mayor que la actual para el año 2000; pero que, con bajos niveles de insumos y tecnología, sesenta y cinco países estarían en una situación crítica. Se solicitó se hicieran en esos países y en otros, estudios y esfuerzos para desarrollar otros sectores compensatorios que permitieran cubrir los déficit alimentarios previsibles. Se indicó, sin embargo, que la pesca y otras fuentes alimentarias podrían y deberían considerarse para visualizar los potenciales de satisfacción alimentaria o la balanza comercial alimentaria en países en desarrollo en el futuro.
Muchas delegaciones hicieron ver la interdependencia entre la situación y perspectivas del Orden Económico Internacional, los avances a la paz y el desarme, y los escenarios presentados en el estudio, y que si las cosas siguen como hasta ahora o se empeoraren, más crítica será la situación para el año 2000.
El perfil económico internacional es fundamental en toda previsión de mejoría en la explotación adecuada de las tierras, y la magnitud de las poblaciones y sus necesidades a satisfacer.
En este sentido, la liberalización del comercio internacional resulta una preocupación principal, así como el acceso indispensable a recursos financieros, tecnológicos y a insumos agrícolas. Se subrayó que aunque existe un gran potencial productivo, un obstáculo paralelo al internacional es la distribución de tierra, recursos, financiamiento, tecnologías y capacidades dentro de los países.
Se enfatizó que aquellas regiones y naciones con potencialidades productivas, debían hacer un esfuerzo primordial de autosuficiencia, y buscar la obtención de excedentes para liberar así presiones sobre los alimentos, y contribuir a una mayor comercialización y cooperación entre el Sur.
Primordialmente, varias delegaciones comentaron sus importantes logros y perspectivas productivas ligadas a su crecimiento poblacional y su respectiva distribución geográfica. Se recordaron y apoyaron las condiciones del esfuerzo productivo y distributivo, a saber, control del proceso de degradación del suelo y del deterioro de los ecosistemas en general; la preservación de especies tradicionales que han sido parte principal de las tierras de las poblaciones, y la atención a la explotación y conservación de zonas de temporal; plena utilización de las tierras de labranza mejorando sus accesos o condiciones insalubres, y con máxima atención a las zonas forestales actuales y deseables en el futuro; acción vía costos de insumos y su disponibilidad mayor, así como menor dependencia de su importación y mayor uso de recursos propios; proyectos e inversiones en infraestructura, almacenamiento, transporte, distribución, capacitación, educación, control de plagas y enfermedades, y sistemas de crédito agrícola, entre otros, que correspondan fundamentalmente al pequeño agricultor y al objetivo de mantenerlo en las zonas rurales; esfuerzos en la reducción de pérdidas postcosecha y desperdicios alimentarios; establecimiento de metas nutriciona-les claras. Asimismo, se hizo referencia a la importancia de la Reforma Agraria y Desarrollo Rural y a la necesidad de incorporar los resultados de la Conferencia Mundial de Reforma Agraria y Desarrollo Rural en la visualización de las perspectivas de este tipo de estudios.
También se dijo debían considerarse las áreas de autosubsistencia y aquéllas marginadas, donde se están y se prevé que pueden deteriorar los niveles nutricionales de la población.
Se recordó los problemas de Africa subsahariana que presenta los casos más dramáticos del presente y del futuro previsible. En suma, sobre esas condiciones, y esto es una aportación de la Presidencia, de alguna manera se recogen aquí integralmente las orientaciones del Reajuste Agrícola Internacional que en el día de ayer discutimos.
Hubo por otra parte, un importante debate en relación al crecimiento poblacional y la distribución de ingresos, tecnología y recursos y factores socioeconómicos. Varias delegaciones manifestaron que el principal esfuerzo debía hacerse en la reducción del crecimiento demográfico. Algunos delegaciones hicieron referencia a sus avances o eventuales estancamientos en la planeación familiar, así como en la distribución geográfica y deseable de su población. Mejor planeación poblacional y mayor claridad sobre las perspectivas demográficas se requieren para llegar a panoramas deseables, realistas y serios.
Se hizo alusión, en este sentido, a la celebración próxima de la Conferencia de Población, en agosto de 1984 en México, y la contemplación de sus resultados y conclusiones. Se expresó también que logros en materia de crecimiento poblacional y su asentamiento apropiado y permanencia en zonas rurales, serán resultado, principalmente, de una mejor distribución y acceso a los recursos físicos, financieros y técnicos, y de mayores niveles de ingreso, y por tanto, de la elevación del nivel de vida, de la salud, del empleo y del desarrollo rural, así como de la incorporación de la mujer al desarrollo en términos de igualdad.
Varias delegaciones afirmaron que la sobrepoblación es un concepto relativo al grado de desarrollo y que, por tanto, no era.ese el problema principal sino el logro de un desarrollo economico agrícola y alimentario más alto, justo y equitativo, y de un empleo remunerativo para la población.
En función de ese debate, se pidió a FAO en colaboración con otras organizaciones, pusieran másatención en deseables y viables metas de control y distribución demográfica, y en el cumplimientode objetivos de producción, disponibilidad y acceso a los alimentos ligados a objetivos nutricionales.
Se subrayó el papel estratégico del avance tecnológico en las perspectivas agrícolas y alimentarias, pero se pidió tener cuidado con las implicaciones de una modernización a toda costa, o simplemente indiscriminada y por tanto, deformadora del desarrollo agrícola y alimentario conveniente y de los patrones de consumo deseables.
Políticas de autodeterminación tecnológicas, me atrevería yo a calificarlas, deberían tomarse muy en cuenta para aplicar insumos y tecnología adecuada en función de condiciones agrológicas y climatológicas y de los objetivos nutricionales.
Se recomendó hacer progresos en aumentar la capacidad de investigación, educación, capacitación de la población buscando efectos de mayor justicia y oportunidades para todos. La formación de especialistas en agricultura y dietética debería ser un primer paso en los países en desarrollo, principalmente de bajos ingresos. Se hizo hincapié en que el aumento de productividad no podía depender sólo del nivel tecnológico sino de apropiados incentivos a los agricultores, principalmente a los pequeños, y a cuidar en todo caso sus diferencias culturales.
Finalmente y como reflexión última, me atrevo a recoger lo que se mencionó en torno a que la agricultura y alimentación debían verse más como un pivote para el desarrollo económico que como una amenaza para la especie humana. Un trabajo global sobre los problemas de la alimentación y la población que perfile el futuro, es necesariamente multidisciplinario y global, pero no se puede pretender que contenga todos los aspectos. Es indispensable visualizar un diagnóstico de una parte de la realidad que es el todo; y por tanto, y por razones metodológicas, separar o parcializar aquellos aspectos que nos interesan con propósitos indicativos.
Con esto, concluiría yo mi resumen sobre los debates que se realizaron en ocasión de este tema 8 de nuestra agenda. Reconozco que no pude recoger la totalidad y la sutileza de los comentarios aquí elaborados. Y advierto que estos comentarios serán tan sólo indicativos para el Comité de Redacción.
Tengo dos breves anuncios que hacerles. El primero, recordarles que en el día de hoy, a las 18 horas, deberán reunirse en el Salón Alemania los miembros de nuestro Comité de Redacción que podrán debatir los asuntos relativos a los temas 6.1 y 6.2 hasta las 24 horas del día de hoy.
Les informo también que copias en inglés, francés y español se encuentran ya disponibles y distribuidas entre los miembros de dicho Comité; y que, en todo caso, en la Sala Alemania habrá más copias.
Asimismo y para el día de mañana le rogaré al Sr. George Mackey, Primer Vicepresidente de esta Comisión I, presida los trabajos relativos al tema 9 de nuestra agenda; es decir, los Resultados y Seguimientos de la Conferencia Mundial de Reforma Agraria y Desarrollo Rural.
Si no hubiere alguna consideración, daré por terminada este décima sesión de trabajo de nuestra Comisión I. Se levanta la sesión.
The meeting rose at 17.30 hours
La séance est levée à 17. h 30
Se levanta la sesión a las 17.30 horas
