CFS:2000/2


 

COMMITTEE ON WORLD FOOD SECURITY

Twenty-sixth Session

Rome, 18-21 September 2000

ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

Table of Contents


ANNEX TABLES:

I. Food Availability, Prevalence and Depth of Undernourishment and Access to Food (1996-1998)

II. Health and Sanitation

III. Food : World Production, Utilization, Trade and Stock Changes


 

I. SUMMARY

1. Responding to recommendations expressed by the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) at its 25th session, the document presents latest estimates of the number of undernourished persons and related information about the food, health and nutrition situation worldwide. This is followed by a brief review of the current situation as regards access to food and food availability at global and national level. Finally progress in developing a set of core indicators and indices that can be used to monitor trends for both outcome and vulnerability factors is summarised.

2. Revised databases have been used to prepare updated estimates on the number of the undernourished. They are discussed in section II of the document. In addition, estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment (proportion of undernourished people in a country's population) that were derived from these figures are presented. Since neither measure gives information on the severity of food insecurity, these figures are complemented by new data on the depth of undernourishment. Furthermore, by classifying countries according to the degree of food deprivation - a measure that combines prevalence and depth - progress of countries toward the goals of the World Food Summit can be better monitored. First results of this new approach are also reported in this section. Finally, a brief summary of the current situation as regards health and nutritional status, which are the desired outcomes of food security, is presented.

3. Section III refers to current conditions with respect to food availability and access to available food that are likely to affect the number of the undernourished in the world. In this context, overall economic performance as measured by GDP per caput are used to capture developments on the access side. As regards food availability, the current supply and demand situation for the main food commodities is outlined. Following this, changes in selected market-based food security indicators are monitored and information on the prevalence of food emergencies as well as changes in food aid flows is discussed. Finally, the current situation with regard to the cereal import bill of developing countries is summarised.

4. The final section IV contains a brief discussion of progress in selecting core indicators for use in monitoring food insecurity and vulnerability at global level. In recent years, it has been repeatedly proposed to develop one or more composite indices that could be used together with single variable indicators in future assessment reports. Following this suggestion, a conceptual framework for developing a food access index is presented in this document.

II. MONITORING THE NUMBER OF THE UNDERNOURISHED, THE PREVALENCE AND DEPTH OF UNDERNOURISHMENT, AND HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS OUTCOMES

A. ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF THE UNDERNOURISHED AND THE PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT

5. Latest estimates of undernourishment indicate that 792 million people in the developing world and 34 million in the developed world remain undernourished in 1996-98 (see Annex Table I and Figure 1). The total of 826 million undernourished people in the world represents no change from last year's estimate. Also on the regional level the picture has altered little since last year. This suggests that the trend in the decline in undernourishment observed in the first half of the nineties (an average 8 million reduction each year), was interrupted in 1998. The probable explanation for this is the particularly severe economic and climatic conditions that affected large areas in the developing world (financial crisis, el Nino) in that year.

6. The past declining trend was already far below the rate required to reach the Summit target, and the recent slowdown means that the rate of decline will have to be even higher in future years to compensate. New projections for 2015 and 2030 show that the reduction in the number of undernourished persons in the developing world by 2015 would still be far short of the World Food Summit goal, although the projection is now somewhat more optimistic than at the time of the Summit. According to these latest projections, the number of undernourished in the developing world could fall to around 580 million by 2015 (see Figure 1). However, the Summit target of no more than 400 million persons undernourished would only be reached towards 2030.

Undisplayed Graphic

7. A region-by-region analysis shows that the number of undernourished persons could decline by 2015 to levels close to the Summit target in South and East Asia, while sub-Saharan Africa and Near East / North Africa would still be far from the target with Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean being in a middle position.

8. Overall, the new projections reflect mainly the continuation of long-term declines in the prevalence of undernourishment in Asia that began in 1969-71 in East Asia and in 1979-81 in South Asia. In the two largest countries in the world - India and China - slowing down of population growth and strong growth of GDP would bring about significant increases in food availability per person between 1995-97 and 2015. The weighted average of the proportion of the undernourished for these two countries combined is projected to decline from 17 percent in 1995-97 to 7 percent in 2015.

9. In sub-Saharan Africa, prospects are not so favourable. Most of the world's poorest countries, where prevalence of undernourishment is high and opportunities for economic growth limited, are found in this region, particularly in the central, southern and eastern parts of the continent. While prevalence of undernourishment is projected to decline from 33 percent in 1995-97 to 22 percent in 2015, the high rate of population growth means that the actual number of undernourished persons could increase slightly between now and 2015. Some very poor countries in East Asia, the Caribbean and the Near East exhibit similar characteristics and also have poor prospects for halving the number of undernourished by 2015.

B. ESTIMATES OF THE DEPTH OF UNDERNOURISHMENT

10. The measures "number of undernourished" and "prevalence of undernourishment" do not provide information on the severity of food insecurity. Within countries having the same percentages of undernourished people, the situation among the individuals belonging to the group of the undernourished can differ significantly. Thus, for a more comprehensive evaluation of food insecurity, estimates of the prevalence should be complemented by measures reporting the depth or severity of undernourishment. The methodology established for this purpose is to calculate the average dietary energy deficit per person of the undernourished. This shows the shortfall in dietary energy supply of an average undernourished person, compared to the average minimum dietary energy requirement.

11. It has to be taken into account that the minimum energy requirement represents only the amount needed to sustain life and undertake light physical activity. Therefore, the measure yields a conservative estimate of the dietary energy deficit of the undernourished. According to the calculations, average deficits of the undernourished lie within the range of 130 to 490 kcal per person per day, with figures varying considerably across countries of different regions and sub-regions (see column 4 of Annex Table I). For a first evaluation of the results obtained, the 151 countries observed have been grouped according to the following classification:

A low depth of undernourishment (average dietary energy deficit per undernourished person below 200 kcal per day) was found for 68 countries (most of them developed countries), whereas moderate and high dietary energy deficits resulted for 60 and 23 countries, respectively. Amongst countries with a high depth of undernourishment, 3 are found in Asia and the Pacific, 1 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1 in the Near East/North Africa, and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Among the latter, 11 countries have an average deficit per person of 310 - 350, 4 of 360 - 400, and 3 of over 400 kcal per day.

C. CLASSIFYING COUNTRIES AND MEASURING PROGRESS ACCORDING TO THE DEGREE OF FOOD DEPRIVATION

12. In order to give a more equal weight to both the prevalence and the depth of undernourishment in monitoring progress toward the Summit goals, a method for classifying countries according to the degree of food deprivation has been developed. To do this, three prevalence classes have been established, low (percentage of the undernourished
< 5 %), moderate (percentage of the undernourished between 5 and 19 %) and high (percentage of the undernourished ³ 20 %). Then, in a second step, these have been combined with the three classes of depth of undernourishment mentioned above, and a matrix has been developed showing the number of countries for each of the nine possible combinations of prevalence and depth of undernourishment (see Table 1).

Table 1: Number of countries, classified according to the degree of food deprivation1

  Average food deficit of the undernourished (kcal per person per day) 1996-98
Prevalence of undernourishment 1996-98 (%) < 200
(Low)
200-300
(Moderate)
> 300
(High)
TOTAL
< 5 (Low) 51 0 0 51
5-19 (Moderate) 17 29 0 46
³ 20 (High) 0 31 23 54
TOTAL 68 60 23 151

13. From the 9 possible combinations shown, the case of low prevalence and low depth of undernourishment marks undoubtedly the least severe situation, whereas the combination of high prevalence and high depth of undernourishment is the worst case. For countries belonging to the latter category, particular efforts are necessary in order to achieve significant improvements for the undernourished populations.

14. Normally, progress toward the target of reducing the number of undernourished will also bring with it a reduction in the size of the dietary energy deficit per undernourished person. However, from the standpoint of the wellbeing of the undernourished, significant improvement could be achieved by reducing the deficit per undernourished person in countries where it is currently moderate to high, even without achieving a significant reduction in the number of undernourished persons in the short-term.

D. A BRIEF LOOK AT HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS

15. Country-by-country information about health and nutrition status is presented in Annex Table II. The table presents three indicators of nutritional status (percentage of children under five years old who were wasted, stunted or underweight at the time of the most recent survey), and three indicators of health status (life expectancy at birth, mortality rate for children under five and percentage of the population with access to adequate sanitation). The occurrence of high levels of all these indicators together obviously indicates severe health and nutritional problems, and conversely, when all indicators are low, the situation is much more benign.

16. Among the approximately 80 countries that have been examined, nine achieved excellent scores for all indicators, while 16 scored very badly on all six of them. These 16 countries also suffered from moderately high or very high prevalence of undernourishment.

17. In general, it is expected that nutritional status of children would be associated with food intake, health status and sanitary conditions of the population as a whole. Although this association is quite common, there are some instances where high percentages of children are underweight even where prevalence of undernourishment is low or access to sanitary facilities is very high. This confirms that nutritional status is determined by a combination of many different factors. Improved understanding of the interplay among these factors requires more systematic data collection and more sophisticated analysis. Developing these tools represents a high priority challenge for FIVIMS.

III. MONITORING CURRENT UNDERLYING CONDITIONS

A. OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

18. As discussed in Section IV below, GNP per capita, although highly imperfect, does provide some indication of the extent to which a country's population will be able to afford the food needed to meet minimum dietary energy requirements for a normal and healthy life. Country-by-country information on this indicator is thus provided in Annex Table I.

19. At the global level, latest estimates are available only for GDP.2 Forecasts of GDP per person for 1999 and 2000 (using market exchange rates) indicate positive economic growth world-wide (see Table 2). These show that in 2000 highest growth rates can be expected for sub-Saharan Africa, where due to their expanding mining industry Mozambique, Botswana and Angola will be the best performing countries. Slower, but still strong growth rates are expected for North Africa and the Middle East. As the Brazilian economy recovered from its financial crisis in 1998 and 1999, regional GDP growth of Latin America and the Caribbean region increases from 0.0 % in 1999 to 3.4 % in 2000. While slightly recovering from the severe financial crisis in 1998, with an average annual GDP growth of 2.7 % in 2000, Asia is still far from the growth patterns observed in the early 1990s. Slow progress in economic growth is expected for countries in transition, among which Moldova, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Czech Republic, Belarus, Croatia and Kazakhstan are belonging to the group of the 20 slowest-growing countries.

20. Preliminary projections3 of growth in regional GDP per capita income to the year 2005 suggest that the positive trend observed for the current period is likely to continue, although the rates of economic growth projected for Africa, while generally satisfying, may still not be sufficient to lift desperately impoverished countries on a level where the economic situation of their entire populations will improve significantly.

Table 2: Forecast of regional growth rates in GDP per person for 1999 and 20004

Region GDP growth (in %)
  1999 2000
Asia 2.8 2.7
Latin America & Caribbean 0.0 3.4
North Africa/Middle East 2.1 3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 3.9
Countries in Transition 0.7 2.1
World 2.5 2.8

B. CURRENT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR MAJOR FOOD COMMODITIES

21. Regular monitoring and assessment of global market conditions for basic foods is an integral part of FAO's activities related to providing early warning information on economic variables that have considerable impact on the status of food security at the national, regional and global level. Annex Table III provides an overview of the current outlook for food staples (cereals, roots and tubers) and other basic foods. It should be noted that in order to improve the capability of FAO to provide early warning information on changing status of food security of vulnerable groups, the Secretariat has already begun a programme of work that entails development of techniques that would eventually allow linking its work on commodity market analysis at the country level to the assessment of food security status of vulnerable groups. Until the completion of this work programme, however, this document will continue to present a summary of FAO's latest assessment of the market conditions of basic foodstuffs for the current and forthcoming crop years.

22. Global production of food staples in 2000 is forecast to rise by about 1 percent from the previous year to 2,059 million tonnes. Most of that gain is expected in the developed countries while production is likely to remain unchanged from the previous year in the developing countries. Among the Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), production of food staples could even decline slightly.

23. World cereal output in 2000 is forecast to rise by about 1.3 percent from last year to 1896 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), about 1 percent above the estimate for 1999. The expected increase is due to an anticipated expansion in coarse grains while wheat output could remain virtually unchanged from the previous season and rice production may decline below the record output in 1999. Low international prices and changes in national policies are reported as the main causes for the reduction in rice output in 2000. Based on current forecasts, total cereal utilisation in 2000/01 would exceed production and cause global cereal stocks to be drawn down for the second consecutive year. Consequently, the overall supply and demand balance for the coming season begins to look somewhat tighter than in the past two seasons and this could eventually result in higher prices. To avoid any further deterioration of the cereal supply and demand balance, a more significant increase in cereal production would be necessary in 2001.

24. World production of roots and tubers in 2000 is forecast at 652 million tonnes (in fresh roots equivalent) of which 72 percent is produced in developing countries, mainly in the LIFDCs (59 percent). Potatoes, cassava and sweet potatoes account respectively for 45, 26 and 20 percent of the global production, the remainder being other roots and tubers such as taro, yautia and cocoyams. Only a small proportion of roots and tubers production is traded internationally mainly because most production occurs in developing countries for on-farm use, while the high degree of perishability and bulkiness makes the transportation costs very high. International trade is largely limited to processed cassava (chips and pellets) for feed and for potatoes.

25. Global production of oils and fats has continuously increased over the 1990s, reaching an estimated 114 million tonnes in the 1999/2000 season. All regions, except the group of CIS countries, participated in this increase. The world's leading producing region is Asia, which in 1999/2000 was estimated to account for almost 40 percent of global production, followed by North and Central America (23 %), Europe and South America (respectively 15% and 13%). At 50 million tonnes, Asia is also the world's leading consumer of oils and fats, followed by North and Central America and Europe. In recent years, consumption growth has been fastest in Asia and North/Central America. With regard to trade, in the last decade, Asia has consolidated its leading position in both the global export and import market for oils and fats. The region's imports have increased by almost 50 percent since the mid 1990s, reaching 23.5 million tonnes in 1999/2000. The world's second most largest importing region is Europe (about 12 million tonnes), while the other two major exporting regions are North and South America (respectively, 11 and 10 million tonnes).

26. The growth in global meat production is expected to be constrained to 2 percent in 2000, as low meat prices in 1999 dampen red meat output prospects in major producing and exporting countries. Hog inventories contract and herd rebuilding commences in the cattle industry of developed regions. The resulting decline in total meat production in these regions is, however, expected to be offset by growing supplies in the developing countries. The reduced meat supplies in the developed countries, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of meat shipments in 1999, is adversely affecting the volume of trade in meat products in 2000, expected to increase by only one-percent. Further determining factors are slightly higher red meat prices than in 1999 and limited prospects for new meat food aid to the Russian Federation. Asian meat imports in 2000, while not expected to replicate their double-digit surge in 1999, are likely to remain robust, while shipments to North America, the second largest import market after Asia, are likely to be supported by lower domestic meat output. However, growth in these markets is not expected to offset declining Russian imports. Exports by the United States in the context of lower supplies and higher domestic prices are set to increase only slightly. Likewise, EC exports will be compromised by a reduction in the WTO export ceiling for all meat exports and the prohibition on rolling over unused subsidies as of July 2000. By contrast, the lower relative prices in South America, generated by the devaluation of the Brazilian currency in 1999 and maintained by strong trading links between Mercosur countries, should facilitate exports from this region in 2000. Product movement from this region into the United States could be further bolstered by their improved animal health status, particularly the regions in Brazil likely to be declared free of foot and mouth disease in 2000.

27. Global milk output is expected to rise by 2 percent during 2000, with production increasing in most countries. Positive growth is forecast for most regions of the world, in particular Oceania, South America and South Asia. Nevertheless, the likely expansion in production of milk among the major exporting countries may not be sufficient to meet the anticipated faster rise in world import demand in 2000. If this were to happen, supplies of some dairy products to the world market, especially skimmed milk powder, could be in short supply. As a result, average prices for 2000 are expected to be higher than the previous year.

C. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS

28. Table 3 shows seven individual food security indicators that have been in use since the mid-1970s. These indicators, while confined to cereals, shed light on the present and future global food situation. The analysis of the developments in 1999/2000 and the forecast for 2000/01 are provided below.

Table 3. Changes in Food Security Indicators5

  Average 1993/4 - 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01*
1. World Cereal Stocks as a percentage of World Cereal Consumption Trends

16.70

18.20

17.4

16.60

2. Ratio of Five Major Grain ** Exporters Supplies to Requirements

1.14

1.18

1.17

1.16

3. Closing Stocks as a percentage of Total Disappearance of Major Cereal Exporters :  
Wheat **

16.90

22.90

21.40

20.90

Coarse Grains **

13.20

19.60

18.00

18.60

Rice #

9.70

10.20

10.70

9.40

Total

13.30

17.60

16.70

16.30

  Annual Trend Growth Rate Percentage Change from Previous Year
  1990-1999 1998 1999 2000
4. Changes in Cereal Production in China, India and CIS

-0.12

-4.25

1.32

-1.38

5. Changes in Cereal Production in LIFDC

1.74

2.88

-0.01

-1.22

6.Changes in Cereal Production in LIFDCs less China and India

2.38

4.78

0.29

1.32

   

Percentage Change from Previous Year

    1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000
7. Export Price Movements (Annual Averages) Wheat (July/June)

-21.20

-15.80

-6.30

  Maize (July/June)

-16.90

-15.60

-3.90

  Rice (Jan./Dec.) ·

-8.50

0.50

-10.70

 

* Forecast.

** Argentina, Australia, Canada, EC and the United States.

# China , Pakistan, Thailand, United States and Vietnam.

Wheat : U.S. no.2 Hard Winter; Maize: U.S. no.2 Yellow; Rice Thai Broken (A1 Super).

· Rice Prices are based on the calendar year of the first year shown.

 

29. The first indicator provides information about global stocks in relation to the likely level of market demand. In general, the FAO Secretariat considers that a 17-18 percent ratio of end-of-season cereal stocks to trend utilisation for the coming marketing year is the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security. This consists of a 12 percent working stock and a 5-6 percent reserve stock element. World cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 2000 are put at 331 million tonnes, down 15 million tonnes, or slightly more than 4 percent below the previous year. All of the anticipated reduction is in stocks of wheat and coarse grains, as rice inventories are expected to increase for the second consecutive year. Overall, the ratio of global cereal carryovers to trend utilisation in 2000/01 is put at 17.4 percent, which is within the 17-18 percent minimum safeguard range. Based on the latest production outlook for 2000, world cereal stocks would have to be reduced further in order to meet the expected global utilisation in 2000/01. Therefore, by the end of countries' marketing seasons in 2001, the level of global cereal stocks is forecast to be around 321 million tonnes, some 10 million tonnes, or 3 percent, below the already reduced opening level. Stocks of nearly all major cereals are forecast to be smaller and this possible draw-down of cereal stocks could lower the stocks-to-use ratio to 16.6 percent, which is slightly below the minimum safeguard level

30. The second indicator measures the ability of the five major grain exporting countries to meet the import demand for wheat and coarse grains. It is the ratio of the sum of their production, imports and opening stocks to the sum of their domestic utilisation plus exports6. This ratio for 1999/2000 is estimated at 1.17, down slightly from the previous year but higher than the long-term average of 1.14. Based on the preliminary supply and demand indications for 2000/01, this ratio could decline to 1.16 percent. On the supply side, the total grain production in major exporting countries is forecast to increase in 2000 but their combined opening stocks are lower than in the previous year. On the demand side, both domestic utilisation and exports are likely to show an increase over the previous year.

31. The third set of indicators refers to the ratio of the volume of closing cereal stocks held by the major exporters of wheat, coarse grain and rice to the total disappearance of these cereals (domestic consumption plus exports). Based on the latest estimates for 1999/2000, these ratios, except for rice, reflect a slight decline from the previous season. The main factor driving the ratios down in 1999/2000 is lower ending wheat and barley stocks in the EC, following last year’s decline in their production. Looking further ahead into 2000/01, a likely increase in coarse grain production in Canada, the EC and the United States could result in a small recovery in the ratio for coarse grains. By contrast, smaller wheat production, especially in Canada and United States, could pull down the overall wheat ratio below the previous year. The ratio for rice is also expected to fall below the previous year’s level, as production in China is likely to be smaller.

32. The fourth indicator measures changes in cereal production among the major cereal importing countries of China, India and the CIS against the trend and the preceding year. For 1999, this indicator points to a significant improvement over the previous year, rising by 1.32 percent as compared to over 4 percent decline in 1998. For wheat, all the countries included in this category registered an increase in their output. Also for rice, the overall performance was a positive one as China’s production was nearly the same as in the previous year while India harvested even bigger crops compared to 1998. For coarse grains, however, the recovery was mostly confined to CIS, as production in China and India fell. With regard to 2000, the overall change is expected to be negative, falling by 1.38 percent from the previous year, although cereal output is forecast to rise in India and the CIS. The reason is entirely China, where the latest forecasts for cereal production in 2000 point to a drop in output of some 12 million tonnes. It should be noted that, except for the CIS, cereal imports by China (mainland) and India have remained relatively small. Growing cereal production in China in recent years has made China a net-cereal exporting country while imports by India have also been on decline in response to bumper domestic crops.

33. The fifth indicator focuses specifically on changes in aggregate cereal production of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs). For 1999, total cereal production in this group of countries fell only marginally compared to the previous year. The decline may prove more significant in 2000, with total output falling by about 1.22 percent compared to 1999. However, because production in China and India could heavily influence the overall effectiveness of this indicator, the sixth indicator measures the changes in aggregate cereal production of the LIFDCs, excluding China and India. In fact, for 1999, total cereal output for this group of countries are up slightly while, for 2000, it is forecast to show a 1.32 percent expansion; this compares to 1.22 percent decline when China and India were included.

34. The seventh indicator provides a comparison of export prices for the major cereals. Except for rice, international cereal prices continued to trend downward in 1998/99. Further drops in prices were registered for nearly all types of cereals during the 1999/2000 season. The main factor behind weak prices in recent years has been the large volume of export supplies, especially among the traditional cereal exporting countries, in view of only a modest growth in commercial trade of cereals (i.e. net of food aid).

35. Overall, the seven indicators point to a generally positive situation for the cereal importing countries in aggregate terms during the past marketing year. For 1999/2000, cereal supply proved adequate and prices were generally weak. Nevertheless, the outlook for 2000/01 suggests a somewhat tighter situation, with the general supply and demand picture pointing to a further reduction in stocks by the end of seasons in 2001. Currently, more than 100 million people in 26 countries in all regions of the world are drought affected. Although not all of these countries have declared formal food emergencies, the effects of widespread drought on the food security situation of both consumers and producers in affected countries, combined with the relatively low level of global cereal stocks, suggest that the coming year may be more difficult.

D.  FOOD EMERGENCIES AND FOOD AID

36. Food and agricultural emergencies, caused by civil conflict and natural or man-made disasters, far too often result in food insecurity in one part of the world or another. In 1999, natural disasters have been an important factor contributing to a decline in cereal production in developing countries which, estimated at an estimated 1,026 million tonnes, is about 2 percent below the previous year. In addition, many people lost access to income and markets were disrupted in a number of locations affected by conflict. As of November 1999, the number of affected persons worldwide was 52 million people.

37. As of end May 2000 thirty-six developing countries faced serious food shortages, primarily due to drought, but also due to civil strife and floods, particularly in Africa. In addition several countries in transition also faced considerable difficulties in ensuring that all segments of their populations were adequately fed.

Locations of particular concern include:

38. Based on the latest information from the World Food Programme, total cereal shipments as food aid in 1999/2000 (July/June) reached 7.5 million tonnes, down substantially from 10.8 million tonnes in 1998/99. Reduced shipments to the Russian Federation accounted for most of this decline. Estimates of potential food aid shipments for 2000/01 (July/June) are rendered difficult as information on food aid budget allocations and intentions provided to FAO by individual donor countries to-date is proving harder to obtain. This owes in part to the nature of the new Food Aid Convention (FAC). The new Convention, which came into effect in July 1999, calls for a more flexible approach to food aid by expanding the list of eligible commodities and the method of contributions7. Therefore, forecasting food aid shipments is becoming increasingly difficult.

E.  CEREAL IMPORT BILLS

39. The cereal import bill of the developing countries in 1999/2000 is expected to be close to US $ 21 billion, which is about US $ 600 million, or 3 percent, below the previous year's value in spite of a likely reduction in food aid deliveries from the previous year. Weak international cereal prices during the course of the 1999/2000 trade season largely compensated for the rise in import volume. For the LIFDCs, the overall cereal import bill is seen to fall by at least 7 percent, to below US $ 9 billion, with imports at 70.5 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from last year's estimated volume. The decline in imports is due to reduced purchases by a few countries where production increased.

IV.  MONITORING TRENDS AND MEASURING VULNERABILITY: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

A.  SELECTION AND MONITORING OF CORE INDICATORS

40. As reported to the 25th Session of the CFS, the monitoring of trends has two purposes. One is to capture the longer-term trends in indicators that are important measures of food security and nutritional wellbeing. The other is to pick up changes that may be occurring in underlying structural factors that cause vulnerability and thus to foresee what may lie ahead with respect to achievement of Summit goals.

41. Last year’s report provided information for two status indicators (average dietary energy supply per capita and GNP per capita), which are directly related to food availability and food access, and seven vulnerability indicators (share of rural population in total, arable land per capita, share of agriculture in GDP, proportion of roads that are paved, yields per hectare for major cereal crops, proportion of countries that experienced an emergency situation, and under 5 mortality rate), representing five major domains considered relevant for food security, i.e., demographic conditions, environmental conditions, economic conditions, political conditions and social conditions.

42. This year, the number of information domains from which key indicators have been selected has been expanded from seven to fifteen. This is based on the transformation of the FIVIMS conceptual framework contained in CFS:98/5 "Guidelines for National FIVIMS", into a set of information modules, for each of which a menu of relevant indicators is being developed by the Inter-Agency Working Group (IAWG) for inclusion in the Key Indicators Database System (KIDS) (see CFS: 2000/6 for more details). These fifteen modules, or information domains, are shown in Table 4, together with those indicators for each module that the FAO secretariat has previously used for preparing past CFS assessment documents and The State of Food Insecurity in the World 1999. This list does not constitute a set of recommended indicators. Rather it simply indicates the range of indicators that are needed for adequate analysis for food insecurity and vulnerability.

43. Both the secretariat and other IAWG members have noted on several occasions that KIDS should not be restricted to only those core indicators that are considered most relevant for monitoring progress toward various social goals. Thus, the complete KIDS system will provide access to a large number of relevant indicators, each of which can be found in existing international or national database. This will give users flexibility to choose which indicators to use for different monitoring and assessment objectives. Furthermore, the IAWG has repeatedly stressed that for national FIVIMS, the selection of indicators must be dictated primarily by national needs, and must include appropriate sub-national and household level indicators that are relevant for specific vulnerable groups within the country.

44. Nevertheless, recognising that for purposes of cross-country comparison, a short list of core indicators for monitoring World Food Summit Follow-up was needed, the IAWG subgroup on Indicators, Assessment and Mapping has developed a preliminary list of eight indicators that it considers could be used for monitoring purposes at global level. These are shown in Table 4 with an asterisk, and data for all but two of them (index of food production variability and percent of income spent on food) are included in the tables annexed to this document. They are:

Food Availability

Food Access

Stability of Food Supplies and Access

Health and Sanitation

Food Consumption Status

Health Status

Nutritional Status

45. CFS:2000/2/Sup.1 compares the proposed FIVIMS core indicator list with other core indicator lists that have been developed through inter-agency co-operation by OECD under the "Progress toward International Development Goals" programme, and by the United National Development Group in the UNDAF (UN Development Assistance Framework) programme, especially in the CCA (Common Country Assessment) component of that joint monitoring, evaluation, and planning effort at country level. The comparison was made to see whether the indicators from the OECD and UNDAF efforts (which overlap to a great extent) would suffice for the FIVIMS core list or whether these needed to be supplemented in order to account for variables of specific relevance to Summit follow-up monitoring. The document concludes with a recommendaton for a core list of indicators for FIVIMS that builds on the existing international concensus, adding only a few new indicators to those already agreed, in order to ensure adequate coverage of World Food Summit goals and food security processes.

46. Monitoring results for the core indicators can be presented for each indicator individually as has been done this year, as well as in past assessment reports. The potential significance of each of the five main indicator categories, with special reference to the preliminary list of eight core indicators and others reported in this document (shown in bold), is discussed briefly below.

Table 4. Indicator Categories proposed for Inclusion in KIDS, and Preliminary Core Indicator Proposals

VULNERABILITY INDICATOR CATEGORIES

STATUS INDICATOR CATEGORIES

A. National and sub-National Context B. National Food Economy C. Household Context D. Intermediate Outcomes E. Final Outcome
1. Demographic Conditions
  • Population growth rate
  • Urban/rural population shares
7. Food Availability
  • Food production index
  • Dietary energy supply per person*
10. Household Characteristics
  • Average household size (for different population categories)
  • Average household income and expenditure patterns (for different population categories
13. Food Consumption Status
  • Percent of population undernourished*
  • Major food group as % of diet
15. Nutritional Status
  • Proportion of children under 5 that are underweight*, stunted or wasted
  • Proportion of adults with low body mass index
2. Environment Conditions
  • Arable land per capita
  • Severely degraded land as % of total area
8. Food Access
  • GNP per person*
  • Gini-index of income distribution
  • Percent of income spent on food*
  • Food prices index
  • Paved roads as % of total road mileage
11. Health and Sanitation
  • Access to safe water*
  • Access to adequate sanitation
14. Health Status
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Under 5 mortality rate*
    
3. Economic Conditions
  • Share of agriculture in GDP
  • Cropped area as % of total
  • Yields per hectare for major cereals
  • Growth in cereal yields
  • Growth in staple food yields, by commodity
  • Growth in GDP
9. Stability of Food Supplies and Access
  • Index of variability of food production*
12. Care and Feeding Practices
  • Weaning age
  • Number of meals eaten in a day
       
4. Political Conditions
  • Proportion of countries facing an emergency
               
5. Socio-Cultural Conditions
  • Literacy rate
       
6. Risks, Hazards, Shocks
  • Rainfall variability
       

* Indicates that this indicator has been suggested by the IAWG subgroup for inclusion in the list of core indicators for FIVIMS. Current information on these indicators has been reported in one of the Annex Tables included in this document, except for the index of variability of food production, and the percent income spent on food, which are not readily available. The indicator for access to safe water has been replaced with the indicator for access to sanitation.

B.  INDICES AND OTHER ALTERNATIVES IN THE ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY

47. In the last ten years a number of development indices, particularly the UNDP Human Development Index (HDI), have received an increasing amount of attention. Some analysts have wondered whether the development of a similar "vulnerability index" might be a fruitful area for development in the context of FIVIMS and for reporting to the CFS, and the CFS itself has repeatedly suggested to develop a composite measure, or index, instead of comparing single indicators.8

48. In the field of development, most indices report on the results of the development process rather than on the means or the process itself. For example the HDI is the average of three outcome components of human development: longevity (as measured by life expectancy); knowledge (as measured by adult literacy, weighted 2/3, and by mean years of schooling, weighted 1/3); and standard of living (measured by GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity). Similarly, the poverty gap index is a two variable outcome index which combines the prevalence of those who are poor and the average size of their income shortfall below the poverty line.

49. One area that could be explored for future CFS assessment reports relates to the development of an index to express the overall degree of food deprivation in a country. Another possibility could involve developing an index that reflects current underlying conditions with respect to the proximate causes of food insecurity and poor nutrition. Such indices would provide additional tools for monitoring the current situation, with special emphasis on cross-country comparisons of developments on the food access side to complement those already reported on the food supply side.

50. For example, a food access index might be composed of indicators linked to income, food prices and health, reflecting both the capacity of individuals to obtain access to sufficient quantities of food for an adequate diet, and their physiological capacity to utilise effectively the foods consumed.

51. The relevance of income, price and health indicators for food access is supported by field observations reported in the context of interdisciplinary and participatory brainstorming sessions initiated by FAO in 12 countries (Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Guatemala, Liberia, Mauritania, Namibia, Nicaragua, Somalia, Tonga, Turkey and Vietnam), where these indicators were frequently cited as important causes of vulnerability.9

52. Indices do have some advantages over looking sequentially at the relationships between explanatory factors and outcome indicators. Indices can present in one figure the combined influence of several explanatory factors. Once constructed, indices can be used for comparisons and, ultimately for outcome ranking.

53. However, the construction of an index can be very complicated. First, the variables that are included in an index must be established as being important, in explaining and predicting the outcome, and the way the variables are combined must also be meaningful. When a number of variables are combined, the appropriate mathematical relationship must be established. This can be additive, multiplicative, or expressed as a ratio.

54. In addition to the developmental work on indices that might be used as part of the CFS monitoring process, work is also underway to investigate the possibility of developing a composite measure of vulnerability for use by national FIVIMS. The work done thus far has led to the following conclusions:

55. In taking further steps for developing status and vulnerability indices, one has to take into account the fact that composite indices never replace information provided by single indicators, but give additional information on countries’ food insecurity and vulnerability situations.


ANNEX TABLE I

Food Availability, Prevalence and Depth of Undernourishment and Access to Food (1996-98)

REGION, SUB-REGION, COUNTRY

FOOD AVAILABILITY PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT DEPTH OF UNDER-NOURISHMENT ACCESS TO FOOD
  

Average per capita dietary energy supply 1996-98 (kcal/day)

Proportion population undernourished 1996-98 (%)

Number of under-nourished 1996-98 (million)

Average food deficit per person 1996-98 (kcal/day)

GNP per capita 1996-98 (constant US $)

DEVELOPING WORLD

2716

18

791.9

255

1205

ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

2791

17

515.2

263

866

East Asia

2946

12

155.0

245

1156

China (Mail and Taiwan) [3]

2940

11

140.1

250

667

China,H.Kong SAR [1]

3200

*

0.1

140

22778

Korea DPR [5]

1860

57

13.2

340

...

Korea Rep [1]

3120

*

0.5

130

11422

Mongolia [5]

1960

45

1.1

310

397

Oceania

2140

29

1.3

260

1023

Papua N Guinea [4]

2140

29

1.3

260

1023

Southeast Asia

2385

13

64.7

233

1280

Cambodia [4]

2060

33

3.4

270

279

Indonesia [3]

2470

6

12.3

200

1019

Laos [4]

2190

29

1.5

280

411

Malaysia [1]

2430

*

0.5

140

4278

Myanmar [3]

2300

7

3.1

200

...

Philippines [4]

2060

21

15.2

270

1150

Thailand [4]

2880

21

12.2

260

2760

Viet Nam [4]

2120

22

16.5

280

309

South Asia

2778

23

294.2

291

425

Bangladesh [5]

2890

38

46.8

330

347

India [4]

2830

21

207.6

290

424

Nepal [4]

2390

28

6.2

270

219

Pakistan [4]

2440

20

28.9

270

489

Sri Lanka [4]

2410

25

4.5

260

763

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

2683

11

54.9

224

3841

North America

2420

5

5.1

210

4149

Mexico [3]

2420

5

5.1

210

4149

Caribbean

2333

31

9.6

330

1282

Cuba [4]

2270

19

2.1

220

...

Dominican Rep [4]

1840

28

2.2

260

1612

Haiti [5]

2660

62

4.8

460

367

Jamaica [3]

2690

10

0.2

200

1579

Trinidad & Tobago [3]

2750

13

0.2

230

4214

Central America

2387

20

6.6

237

1472

Costa Rica [3]

2540

6

0.2

160

2647

El Salvador [3]

2180

11

0.6

200

1681

Guatemala [4]

2340

24

2.5

240

1483

Honduras [4]

2190

22

1.3

270

681

Nicaragua [4]

2450

31

1.5

300

384

Panama [4]

3130

16

0.4

230

2961

South America

2809

10

33.6

221

4146

Argentina [1]

3150

*

0.4

140

8011

Bolivia [4]

2200

23

1.8

230

916

Brazil [3]

2960

10

15.9

250

4465

Chile [2]

2820

4

0.6

150

4524

Colombia [3]

2580

13

5.2

220

2341

Ecuador [3]

2710

5

0.5

160

1496

Guyana [3]

2450

18

0.2

230

753

Paraguay [3]

2570

13

0.7

220

1872

Peru [3]

2390

18

4.4

240

2498

Suriname [3]

2640

10

0.0

190

933

Uruguay [2]

2810

4

0.1

150

5762

Venezuela [3]

2360

16

3.7

200

3444

NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2907

10

35.9

177

1952

Near East

2738

13

30.3

165

2358

Afghanistan [5]

1620

70

14.6

470

...

Iran [3]

2830

6

4.1

190

1276

Iraq [3]

2340

17

3.5

210

...

Jordan [3]

2790

5

0.2

170

1470

Kuwait [2]

3050

4

0.1

180

...

Lebanon [1]

3270

*

0.1

160

2926

Saudi Arabia [2]

2860

3

0.6

150

6814

Syria [1]

3350

*

0.2

160

1063

Turkey [1]

3500

*

1.2

170

3150

United Arab Em [1]

3370

*

0.0

140

19342

Yemen [5]

2050

35

5.7

290

226

North Africa

3180

4

5.6

195

1297

Algeria [3]

2980

5

1.4

190

1438

Egypt [2]

3280

4

2.6

200

1113

Libya [1]

3250

*

0.0

130

...

Morocco [3]

3130

5

1.4

210

1311

Tunisia [1]

3260

*

0.1

130

2097

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2205

34

185.9

291

297

Central Africa

1898

50

38.5

344

300

Cameroon [4]

2190

29

4.1

260

592

Central African Rep [5]

2000

41

1.4

310

325

Chad [5]

2070

38

2.7

330

218

Congo, Dem R [5]

1750

61

29.3

380

118

Congo, Rep [4]

2170

32

0.9

290

661

Gabon [3]

2540

8

0.1

160

3986

East Africa

2010

42

79.9

306

207

Burundi [5]

1640

68

4.3

410

143

Eritrea [5]

1650

65

2.2

370

210

Ethiopia [5]

1850

49

28.4

340

110

Kenya [5]

1970

43

12.2

290

329

Rwanda [5]

2030

39

2.3

330

210

Somalia [5]

1550

75

6.6

490

...

Sudan [3]

2430

18

5.1

240

250

Tanzania [5]

2000

41

12.7

300

174

Uganda [4]

2140

30

6.0

280

324

Southern Africa

2024

42

34.5

337

449

Angola [5]

1910

43

5.0

320

167

Botswana [4]

2210

27

0.4

240

3440

Lesotho [4]

2230

29

0.6

280

717

Madagascar [5]

2010

40

5.8

310

229

Malawi [4]

2170

32

3.2

310

176

Mauritius [2]

2940

6

0.1

180

3837

Mozambique [5]

1860

58

10.7

420

163

Namibia [4]

2130

31

0.5

260

2196

Swaziland [3]

2490

14

0.1

210

1540

Zambia [5]

1960

45

3.9

340

375

Zimbabwe [5]

2140

37

4.2

340

662

West Africa

2570

16

33.0

238

316

Benin [3]

2540

14

0.8

220

381

Burkina Faso [4]

2160

32

3.5

290

250

Côte d'Ivoire [3]

2610

14

1.9

230

733

Gambia [3]

2520

16

0.2

240

341

Ghana [3]

2670

10

1.9

210

392

Guinea [4]

2310

29

2.1

320

564

Liberia [5]

2000

46

1.1

390

...

Mali [4]

2150

32

3.4

290

257

Mauritania [3]

2630

13

0.3

240

452

Niger [5]

1940

46

4.5

350

205

Nigeria [3]

2760

8

8.6

210

231

Senegal [4]

2290

23

2.0

240

557

Sierra Leone [5]

2050

43

1.9

380

162

Togo [3]

2460

18

0.8

260

332

COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION

2890

6

26.4

167

1956

COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

2776

8

22.8

175

1575

Armenia [4]

2350

21

0.7

210

836

Azerbaijan [4]

2190

32

2.4

240

400

Belarus [1]

3160

*

0.1

140

2031

Estonia [3]

2950

6

0.1

180

3645

Georgia [4]

2320

23

1.2

210

682

Kazakhstan [3]

2860

5

0.7

160

1266

Kyrgyzstan [3]

2490

17

0.8

230

806

Latvia [2]

2930

4

0.1

150

2217

Lithuania [1]

3110

*

0.1

140

2037

Moldova Rep [3]

2690

11

0.5

210

666

Russian Fed [3]

2840

6

8.6

170

2125

Tajikistan [4]

2160

32

1.9

250

333

Turkmenistan [3]

2620

10

0.4

290

504

Ukraine [3]

2830

5

2.6

160

834

Uzbekistan [3]

2550

11

2.6

180

980

EASTERN EUROPE

3165

3

3.6

148

2874

Albania [2]

3030

3

0.1

150

800

Bosnia Herzegovina [3]

2660

10

0.4

230

...

Bulgaria [3]

2700

13

1.1

220

1320

Croatia [3]

2610

12

0.5

180

4632

Czech Rep [1]

3280

*

0.1

130

5140

Hungary [1]

3350

*

0.1

140

4514

Macedonia [3]

2790

7

0.1

170

1311

Poland [1]

3330

*

0.3

130

3649

Romania [1]

3280

*

0.3

140

1394

Slovakia [2]

2960

4

0.2

150

3632

Slovenia [2]

2970

3

0.1

140

10277

Yugoslavia [2]

3040

3

0.3

150

...

 

NOTES: TABLE 1

Figure in brackets [ ] denotes prevalence category, i.e. proportion of the population undernourished in 1996-98.

Category

[1] <2.5% undernourished

[2] 2.5-4% undernourished

[3] 5-19% undernourished

[4] 20-34% undernourished

[5] = or > 35% undernourished

* : percentage of undernourished below 2.5%

… Data unavailable

 

SOURCES: TABLE 1

Average dietary energy supply (DES) FAO estimates.

Average food deficit per person FAO estimates.

GNP per capita (in constant US$) World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2000 Edition.

Number of undernourished FAO estimates.

Undernourished in total population FAO estimates.

 


ANNEX TABLE II

Health and Sanitation

REGION, SUB-REGION, COUNTRY

HEALTH AND SANITATION

NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF CHILDREN UNDER FIVE

 

Access to adequate sanitation 1990/97 (%)

Life expectancy at birth 1995 (years)

Under 5 mortality rate 1995 (per '000)

Underweight around 1995 (a) (%)

Stunted around 1995 (a) (%)

Wasted around 1995 (a) (%)

DEVELOPING WORLD            
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC            
East Asia
China [3]

24

69

47

17

34

5

Korea DPR [5]

...

72

30

...

...

...

Korea Rep [1]

100

72

9

...

...

...

Mongolia [5]

86

65

74

12

26

2

Oceania
Papua N Guinea [4]

83 (b)

57 (b)

95(b)

30

43

6

Southeast Asia            
Cambodia [4]

19

53

174

52

56

13

Indonesia [3]

59

64

75

34

42

13

Laos [4]

18

52

134

40

47

11

Malaysia [1]

94

71

13

20

...

...

Myanmar [3]

43

59

150

31

45

8

Philippines [4]

75

67

53

30

33

8

Thailand [4]

96

69

32

25

22

5

Viet Nam [4]

21

66

45

40

36

10

South Asia
Bangladesh [5]

43

57

115

56

55

18

India [4]

29

62

115

53

52

18

Nepal [4]

16

55

114

47

49

11

Pakistan [4]

56

63

137

40

50

9

Sri Lanka [4]

63

73

19

33

20

13

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN          
North America
Mexico [3]

72

71

32

14

23

6

Caribbean
Cuba [4]

66

76

10

...

...

1

Dominican Rep [4]

78

70

44

6

11

1

Haiti [5]

25

58

124

28

32

8

Jamaica [3]

89

74

13

10

10

4

Trinidad & Tobago [3]

79

72

18

7

5

4

Central America
Costa Rica [3]

84

77

16

5

6

2

El Salvador [3]

90

67

40

11

23

1

Guatemala [4]

83

66

67

27

50

3

Honduras [4]

74

69

38

25

39

1

Nicaragua [4]

35

68

60

12

25

2

Panama [4]

83

73

20

7

9

1

South America
Argentina [1]

68

73

27

2

5

1

Bolivia [4]

58

60

105

8

27

1

Brazil [3]

70

67

60

6

11

2

Chile [2]

...

74

15

1

2

0

Colombia [3]

85

70

36

8

15

1

Ecuador [3]

76

69

40

17(b)

34(b)

2(b)

Guyana [3]

88

...

...

18

...

...

Paraguay [3]

41

71

34

4

14

0

Peru [3]

72

67

55

8

26

1

Suriname [3]

...

...

...

...

...

...

Uruguay [2]

...

73

21

4

10

1

Venezuela [3]

58

72

24

5

15

3

NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA          
Near East
Afghanistan [5]

8

45

257

49

48

16

Iran [3]

81

69

40

16

19

7

Iraq [3]

75

67

71

12

22

3

Jordan [3]

77

69

25

6

16

3

Kuwait [2]

75

14

2

3

1

Lebanon [1]

63

69

40

3

12

3

Saudi Arabia [2]

86(b)

71

34

...

...

...

Syria [1]

67

68

36

13

21

9

Turkey [1]

80

68

50

10

21

3

United Arab Em [1]

92

74

19

...

...

...

Yemen [5]

24

51

110

30

44

13

North Africa
Algeria [3]

91

68

61

13

18

9

Egypt [2]

88

65

51

12

25

6

Libya [1]

98

64

63

5

15

3

Morocco [3]

58

65

75

10

24

2

Tunisia [1]

80

69

37

9

23

4

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Central Africa
Cameroon [4]

50

57

106

15

26

3

Central African Rep [5]

27

50

165

23

28

6

Chad [5]

21

49

152

39

40

14

Congo, Dem R [5]

69

51

108

24

28

6

Congo, Rep [4]

18

52

185

34

45

10

Gabon [3]

...

55

148

...

...

...

East Africa
Burundi [5]

51

51

176

38

47

6

Eritrea [5]

13

52

195

44

38

16

Ethiopia [5]

19

49

195

48

64

8

Kenya [5]

77

55

90

23

34

8

Rwanda [5]

...

47

139

26

56

4

Somalia [5]

...

48

211

...

...

...

Sudan [3]

51

54

115

34

34

13

Tanzania [5]

86

52

160

31

43

7

Uganda [4]

57

44

185

26

38

5

Southern Africa
Angola [5]

40

48

292

Botswana [4]

55

66

52

...

...

...

Lesotho [4]

38

62

154

16

33

2

Madagascar [5]

40

58

164

40

48

7

Malawi [4]

3

45

219

30

48

7

Mauritius [2]

100

71

23

15

10

14

Mozambique [5]

54

47

275

26

36

8

Namibia [4]

62

60

78

26

29

9

Swaziland [3]

59

...

...

10(b)

30(b)

1(b)

Zambia [5]

71

48

203

24

42

4

Zimbabwe [5]

52

52

74

16

21

6

West Africa
Benin [3]

27

48

142

29

25

14

Burkina Faso [4]

37

47

164

33

33

13

Côte d'Ivoire [3]

39

50

150

24

24

8

Gambia [3]

37

46

110

15

14

6

Ghana [3]

55

57

130

27

26

11

Guinea [4]

31

46

219

...

...

...

Liberia [5]

30

56

216

...

33

9

Mali [4]

6

47

210

40

30

23

Mauritania [3]

32

53

195

23

44

7

Niger [5]

17

48

320

50

41

21

Nigeria [3]

41

51

191

39

39

21

Senegal [4]

39

50

110

22

23

7

Sierra Leone [5]

11

40

284

28

35

8

Togo [3]

41

56

128

25

22

12

 

NOTES: TABLE 2

Figure in brackets [ ] denotes prevalence category, i.e. proportion of the population undernourished in 1996-98.

Category

[1] <2.5% undernourished

[2] 2.5-4% undernourished

[3] 5-19% undernourished

[4] 20-34% undernourished

[5] = or > 35% undernourished

… Data unavailable

(a) Refers to results of national surveys conducted from 1987 - 1998

(b) Period other than the one specified in the column heading

 

SOURCES: TABLE 2

Health and sanitation UNICEF, The State of the Worlds Children, 1997 and 1999.

Nutritional status of children under five Results of surveys compiled by WHO (Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition) and FAO (Nutridat)

 


ANNEX TABLE III

FOOD: WORLD PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION, TRADE AND STOCK CHANGES10

 

PRODUCTION

UTILIZATION a

TRADE b

CHANGE IN STOCKS c

TOTAL

FOOD

1998

1999

2000 f'cast

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01 f'cast

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01 f'cast

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01 f'cast

( ………………………………………………………………………………million tonnes…………………………………………………………………………)

BY COMMODITY
Staples d 2060.20 2032.60 2052.60 2038.00 2054.90 2066.60 1054.90 1072.00 1079.40 224.20 233.50 229.70      
Total Cereals e 1898.40 1869.80 1889.50 1876.20 1892.10 1903.50 964.90 981.40 988.70 215.60 224.80 221.00 14.60 -14.10 -10.10
Wheat 597.10 589.40 588.10 589.50 595.00 593.90 417.20 422.80 425.80 98.00 103.80 101.50 4.70 -6.90 -4.10
Rice (milled) 390.10 403.20 398.00 391.70 401.20 402.10 351.90 360.60 364.10 24.50 22.10 22.50 1.60 3.30 -3.80
Coarse Grains 911.20 877.20 903.40 895.00 895.90 907.50 195.80 198.00 198.80 93.10 98.90 97.00 8.50 -10.60 -2.20
Roots and Tubers f 161.80 162.80 163.10 161.80 162.80 163.10 90.00 90.60 90.70 8.60 8.70 8.70      
Meat 223.00 227.20 230.00 223.00 227.20 230.00 223.00 227.20 230.00 15.10 15.80 15.80      
Oils and Fats g/h 105.00 110.00 114.00 106.00 109.00 114.00

 

  

 

45.00 47.00 49.00 -1.50 1.00 .0.20
Milk i 555.00 560.00 571.00 555.00 560.00 571.00 458.00 462.00 472.00 35.00 36.00 37.00      
STAPLES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Developed countries 903.70 889.30 908.20 784.40 789.70 797.50 185.60 186.20 187.33 59.30 64.40 61.30 5.90 -13.30 5.20
Developing countries 1156.50 1143.30 1144.40 1253.60 1265.20 1269.10 869.30 885.80 892.10 164.90 169.10 168.40 8.70 -0.80 -15.30
LIFDC 906.80 901.60 891.30 957.30 962.10 964.20 710.60 722.80 727.30 75.20 73.80 71.50 9.30 0.10 -13.70
LIFDC< j 372.80 369.60 373.80 427.10 430.60 430.10 314.60 321.20 322.60 66.50 63.90 61.40 14.10 1.20 -23.50
 

a. Utilization refers to the marketing year following production. For meat, milk, roots and tubers it is the calendar year of the first year shown.

b. The trade year is a split year for wheat, coarse grains, oils and fats and a calendar year for the other commodities (first year shown).

c. The change between opening and ending stocks during the crop season.

d. Includes cereals, roots and tubers.

e. Cereals include rice converted from paddy to milled basis.

 

f. In grain equivalent

g. For oils and fats, the data refer to the split years 1997/98, 1998/99 and 1999/2000.

h. Trade is defined as the sum of trade in oil and the oil equivalent of oilseeds.

i. Trade is in milk equivalent.

j. Excluding India and China.

 

 ______________________________________

1  Source: FAO

2  GDP equals GNP minus net receipts of primary income from non-resident sources.

3  See IMF (May 2000), World Economic Outlook

4  Source: Economic Intelligence Unit 2000, World Outlook 2000

5  Source : FAO

6  If the calculated value of the ratio is equal to 1, this indicates that the 5 major exporting countries would have completely exhausted their cereal inventories during the course of their marketing year.

7  The commodity list has been expanded to include edible oils, root crops (cassava, potatoes, etc.), skimmed milk powder, seeds for eligible crops, sugar, products which are part of the traditional diet of vulnerable groups or a component of supplementary feeding programmes, and micro-nutrients and fortified food products. These food items, in aggregate, will be limited to no more than 20 percent of any donor’s commitment, with individual commodities limited to 3-7 percent of the total donation, excluding transportation and other operating expenses. Overall, the total volume of commitments under the 1999 Convention is 4.895 million tonnes, in wheat equivalent, compared to 5.35 million tonnes under the 1995 Convention. The difference is accounted for by the pledge by the EU to provide 130 million ECU in cash, or about 588 000 tonnes, which includes transportation costs. At current prices and transportation costs, the food aid volume commitment under the new Convention is roughly equivalent to the previous one.

8  See CL 116/10, p. 5; CFS:99/2, p. 12.

9  See CFS:99/Inf. 6.

10 Source : FAO (totals computed from unrounded data)