4.1 Results of the five-village survey
4.2 Results of biomass survey and calibration of Landsat imagery
4.3 Results of rural energy demand modelling
4.4 Conclusions
4.5 Recommendations
The data gathered during the five-village household survey undertaken for this report indicated the following:
- Average per capita woodfuel demand among rural households was found to be 0.51 tonnes/year (0.57 M3/year) assuming the use of air-dry wood with a moisture content of 25%. Level of demand was considerably influenced by household size, but also by household wealth and by availability of wood. This is lower than reported for many other parts of Africa, where charcoal is in common use, but is very similar to India where firewood rather than charcoal is widely used. Of total annual demand, use of wood for heating/social purposes was estimated to account for about 15/20%.- The position in rural households was unlikely to change significantly over the next 25 years. In wealthier households, more use of gas and paraffin would substitute for fuelwood as it becomes scarcer and more expensive. In certain areas (e.g. Kalahari and Barolong), poorer villages would resort to using increasing quantities of dung. Electricity and coal were considered unlikely to become significant sources of energy supply to households.
- For practical and economic reasons, the overall potential for reduction of rural fuel demand through the introduction of metal stoves and hay boxes was, at most, likely to be about 5%. The future dissemination of these technologies should concentrate on urban areas.
The biomass field research, and calibration of the Landsat imagery indicated the following:
- Taking the majority of rural areas in Botswana, including the Kalahari, biomass resources are more than sufficient to meet demand for fuelwood and for poles. Demand for poles is broadly estimated to be about 44% of total wood demand. However, in the more urbanised south-eastern part of the country and within 20-50 km of certain major villages in the central and north-eastern region, there was found to be a prospect of severe wood resource shortages on account of fuelwood demand.- Difficulties in meeting woodfuel demand at the time of the study were not yet acutely apparent, partly because drought had produced a great deal of dead wood in the past three years. However, drought, together with the rapidly growing urban populations and the demand for poles and land clearances, was the cause of rapidly depleting biomass resources in these areas. This was particularly the case for tree species. There is also widespread evidence of whole-tree cutting.
The data output from the rural energy demand model indicated the following:
- In Botswana during 1983, some 460,000 tonnes of wood were consumed as fuel, of which 72% was in rural areas where it accounted for 87% of total delivered energy. In the rural household sector fuelwood made up 95% of all fuel consumed; the rest principally being paraffin for lighting.- In the agricultural sector, the rate of growth of diesel consumption will depend upon the implementation of planned irrigation projects and the success of the loan scheme for tractor purchase. If plans are fulfilled this growth will be quite fast in the 1990/2010 period (approximately 157. p.a.), partially offset by substitution of diesel by electricity and renewable energy technologies for borehole pumping.
- The overall contribution of renewable energy technologies is likely to be modest, although economic and practicable opportunities do exist and should be pursued.
- The chief finding was that the most significant trend in rural energy supply and demand balance is an increasing deficit in fuelwood supply in rural areas within 10-50 km of towns and major villages mostly in the south of the country.
- The significance of this finding was highlighted by the dominance of fuelwood as a source of energy in rural areas and the increasing demand from urban areas.
- This finding suggested Chat unless action was taken immediately, the rural communities in the fuelwood catchment areas of the major urban areas would experience serious social, environmental and economic impacts by the mid-1990's.
- The options selected must meet future urban demand; they must also be economically feasible, capable of implementation given current or expected institutional capacity and socially acceptable.
- The options selected must be a combination of activities that both meet urban demand as soon as possible and also secure medium and long-term relief from rural energy shortages.
- The majority of the rural population had no economic alternative to fuelwood; therefore, the potential for substitution whether with renewable or non-renewable energy was extremely limited.
- The potential for commercialisation of fuelwood would be greatly increased were the price of wood supplied to towns to rise towards its long-run marginal supply costs.
- A government programme aimed at relieving rural energy deficits and avoiding the social, environmental and economic costs would not be feasible without significant institutional reform and strengthening.
As a result of the key points outlined above, the following recommendations were made:
- A programme of large plantations (each of about 500 ha) be commenced as soon as possible by the Government's Forestry Unit, aimed principally at supplying firewood to urban areas. While these plantations are being established, in order to provide a quick response to the urban fuel demand which is causing such environmental stress in some rural areas, a programme of wood transportation from remote Northern area woodlands to South-East Botswana was recommended. Because of the high price of fuelwood in most urban areas, such investment projects should prove commercially viable (approximately 15% internal rate of return). There was also an urgent need to bring existing woodlots under effective management.- Community woodlots for villages affected by fuelwood shortages were not recommended. Instead, an extension programme should be mounted to encourage and support widespread private planting of trees in villages and by schools and other responsive groups. A start should also be made on agroforestry. This can only be effective if an adequate level of advice and monitoring is provided at village level by Agricultural Demonstrators who, in turn, must be supported by District Foresters.
- Neither of these programmes should even be begun unless the Forestry Unit is considerably strengthened in size and status. It was also recommended that a high level sector review study be undertaken, to assess whether the Forestry Unit should remain within the Ministry of Agriculture if it is effectively going to implement and manage a tree planting programme on the scale required.
- The Action Plan also called for a concerted training programme of foresters at graduate, diplomate and junior/foreman level.
- The total net cost of the proposed Action Plan over the next ten years is estimated as P19.9 million, of which the foreign exchange component is about 50%.
