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Large-scale forest-based industrial development in developing countries

A. Contreras-Hermosilla and H. Gregersen

Arnoldo Contreras-Hermosilla is Senior Forestry Specialist with the World Bank. Hans Gregersen is a professor with the University of Minnesota.

An analysis of policy measures that could enhance positive development impacts and reduce adverse ones.

Development of the forest-based sector in developing countries will depend on the way in which forest-based industrialization progresses. The importance of small-scale enterprises (SSEs) was discussed in an earlier Unasylva article (Arnold, Chipeta and Fisseha, 1987). Modern, large-scale enterprises (MLEs) are discussed in the present article, which revisits much of the ground covered by Westoby's seminal article in Unasylva almost 30 years ago (Westoby, 1962). While many of the conclusions still hold, there has also been a substantial evolution of thinking regarding the impacts of forestry-based development in such areas as income distribution, environment and trade.

A number of groups are concerned about the economic, social and environmental impacts of large forestry and forest industry schemes. Some point to the fact that, although it is theoretically possible to guide their development in the direction of national goals, there is an increasing realization that past government policies have often introduced unacceptable distortions in the allocation of economic resources, resulting in serious environmental damage. Policy errors are more visible and often more costly if they involve a few large-scale, concentrated operations rather than a myriad of scattered SSEs.

Yet, the economics of many production activities in forestry (e.g. economies of scale and lumpiness of capital) as well as market requirements (such as standardization and demand for large, secure volumes of product) often favour the establishment of MLEs in the forest-based sector.

This paper explores the nature of the various impacts of large-scale forest-based industrial development and describes policies that can be implemented to induce the materialization of positive impacts while minimizing negative ones. It should be emphasized that the objective of this analysis is not to study the broader policy issues related to the choice between large-scale and small-scale development.

Economies of scale and market requirements often favour the establishment of modern, large-scab enterprises in the forest-based sector

Policy framework

An effort to foster MLE development should be based on an internally consistent policy framework which takes due account of the interactions between numerous policy instruments and objectives. Such a framework must consider the administrative complexities involved in implementation.

Four main development objectives or impact areas are studied: foreign exchange earnings; social improvement, employment and income expansion; technology growth and modernization; and improvement of the physical environment.

These objectives are displayed in column 1 of Figure 1. So that expanded MLE activity can be used constructively to achieve these objectives without major negative impacts, certain actions need to be undertaken. These are displayed in column 2. Finally, columns 3 and 4 show the policy instruments that governments can use effectively to encourage required actions. The rest of the paper discusses the actions and policy instruments commonly associated with each of the objectives.

Foreign exchange earnings and savings

Foreign exchange impacts roughly correspond to earnings of foreign exchange resulting from exports of industrial forest products; foreign exchange outflows resulting from imports and payments abroad; and savings from import substitution.

Developing countries exported some US$11 000 million worth of industrial forest products in 1988. In the same year, their imports of industrial forest-based products reached some $12 600 million. Figures on import substitution are not available but developing countries produce the equivalent of some $80 000 million for the domestic market, a large proportion of which plausibly represents import substitution. Information on the international transfer of profits from industrial operations and other payments abroad resulting from the imported content of production and expatriate salaries is also inadequate. There are indications that these transfers may be of importance in all those cases where there is substantial transnational investment (Gillis, 1981).

FIGURE 1. Objectives actions and policy instruments required for managing impacts of MLE activity in the forest-based sector

Latin American exports of lumber and board products: import requirements, deterrents and possible corrective programmes

Type of requirement

Importers' requirements

Common deterrents to meeting requirement

Possible corrective programmes

Quality and dimensional standards

Guaranteed quality and dimensions:
Uniformity
General conformity to NHLMA rules
Proven characteristics
Light in weight and colour
Easily worked
Dimensionally stable
Easily finished

Great variety of characteristics for a given species from different areas Inadequate treatment and seasoning facilities for lumber
Inadequate information and tests on species' characteristics
Few areas with adequate concentrations of known species meeting quality and physical requirements
Inadequate quality and site controls in processing

Research and training programmes in processing and treatment
Cooperative treatment plants Incentive programmes for quality production units
Establishment of uniform export standards
Improvements in sorting and grading Research on wood proportions and uses

Timing and size of shipments

Guaranteed delivery dates
Generally large quantities in a shipment

Uncertainty in scheduling ocean transport in advance for many ports
Coordination problems between logging and processing (seasonal and distance problems)
Insufficient concentration of products for export as a result of:
- Low volumes of commercial timber per unit area
- A lack of acceptable species groupings
- Generally small-size production units
- Poor transport and storage facilities

Export concentration yards (associations or cooperatives)
Integration of processing facilities
Research on products (or species) groupings and expansion of commercial species
Selected conversion to plantations (species concentration)
Renovation of transport facilities and methods
Improved dissemination of market information
Improved storage facilities

Cost/price relationship

Competitive delivered price

High overall costs resulting from a lack of markets for lower-quality by-products
High logging and log transport costs because of low commercial volumes per unit area, low level of transport infrastructure and long hauling distances;
High processing costs resulting from: small average size of plants, poor plant layout and outdated equipment, poor equipment maintenance, low efficiency (conversion ratios) etc.
High marketing and product transport costs because of poor shipping facilities, inadequate promotion, existence of outdated trade restrictions and tariffs

Relocation of processing capacity (export-oriented)
Specialization and longer production runs, larger units (economies of scale) innovations in logging and transport (cost reductions) Initial export subsidies
Training and technical extension (public programmes)
Links with (US) companies
Increased production and management research
Market research and education
Association of producers and exporters (economies of scale)
Trade barrier reductions
"Piggybacking"
Stimulated domestic market for by-products

Despite the lack of information, however, it appears that forest-based industrial activities are overwhelmingly important for the sector and have a significant influence on the foreign exchange position of developing countries.

Trade incentives

In India, the government allows exporters to import inputs worth a given amount of the foreign exchange they have generated. Given the scarcity of foreign exchange, this policy provides an important incentive to increase exports. In Chile, the government actively promotes exports by helping private firms establish contacts abroad and providing export grants for selected products.

Restrictions on log exports have had mixed economic results

The use of log export bans to encourage processed product exports

In Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia, peninsular Malaysia and Sabah have all followed policies entailing log export restrictions. Virtually all Latin American countries have applied these same policies, the economic convenience of which varies from case to case. Log export bans have frequently failed to encourage processing for the export market because of a lack of competitive advantage in wood processing or the existence of other more profitable investment opportunities. The result has been a sacrifice of log exports without an increase in exports of processed products. Such a poor outcome has led some countries to reverse policies and abolish log export bans (Chile is an example).

Export expansion

Export expansion programmes can be quite complex and comprise several key factors which have to be addressed simultaneously. There are at least three categories of factors which merit consideration: 1) quality and dimensional standards - importers demand uniform and high quality in their imports; 2) timing and size of shipments - most importers want fairly large shipments and they demand punctuality; 3) the price must be right, i.e. competitive with other potential suppliers.

Figure 2 lays out the main requirements as well as the common deterrents to meeting them and possible corrective actions which may be taken in a comprehensive approach to achieving export expansion.

Various policies can be used to promote exports, including: fiscal incentives such as tax exemptions, export subsidies, financing and deferments; non-fiscal incentives such as subsidized inputs, differential exchange rates, provision of export marketing expertise, price supports, insurance and export performance awards; and indirect incentives through government training, research, export promotion programmes, marketing information services, etc.

Countries often combine export incentives for processed products with bans, penalties or taxes on log exports. In this case the combination of policies is meant to discourage primary product exports and encourage those of higher-value processed products. But even when exports of processed products do increase, there is no guarantee that additional benefits will compensate the additional costs of processing and government subsidies. In Indonesia, the Philippines and peninsular Malaysia, log export bans spurred the proliferation of processing mills but, in most cases, processing was generally inefficient. Thus, it is clear that the underlying assumptions of policy measures - such as the assumption of the existence of a competitive advantage in wood processing need to be scrutinized carefully to evaluate their potential costs and benefits and avoid expensive mistakes.

Import substitution

Import substitution may be encouraged with a number of policy instruments. Preferential exchange rates can be established for the purpose of importing inputs and machinery for use in import-substituting industries. Subsidies can often be granted in the form of bonuses or rebates for labour use, grants based on output and tax incentives. Subsidies are frequently complemented with high-tariff or non-tariff import barriers.

Both the absolute level of protectionism and the magnitude of escalation (the increase in tariffs as the level of processing progresses) are usually high in developing countries. On most products, rates of 20 to 30 percent are common (Bourke, 1988). Thus, log imports may be free of duty but imports of processed products may have to face considerably higher tariffs. The "effective" protection resulting from these barriers is usually a great deal higher than that given by nominal tariffs.

Impacts of tariff protection

If logs can be imported duty free while imports of plywood are subject to a 20 percent duty, assuming the cost of raw materials is equal to 70 percent of the international price of plywood, a domestic producer may have plywood production costs of up to two-thirds higher than those faced by international producers and still remain in business. Assuming an international plywood price of US$100/m³, an entrepreneur wishing to export to a certain country would have to pay a 20 percent import duty and could not, therefore, afford to sell plywood for less than $120/m³. This means that processing costs could be as much as two-thirds more for a domestic producer (as high as $50/m³, compared with $30 for the exporter) and still be competitive. The protection granted to the domestic manufacturer would therefore be 66 percent as opposed to the nominal tariff rate of 20 percent.

In addition to tariff barriers, countries also make use of non-tariff restrictions to induce import substitution. These include total prohibitions, quotas, discretionary licensing, health and sanitary restrictions and bureaucratic red tape.

Import substitution policies are still very popular in many developing countries. However, evidence shows that they may cause various undesirable consequences. They distort the price system, thereby negatively influencing the allocation of scarce resources, and often lead to excessive capital intensity in the production processes. In many cases added value is low and competition from efficient international suppliers is stifled.

Transfers abroad

Foreign investment, particularly in very large and technologically complex projects, may initially bring many benefits to a country. Such benefits may include the initial inflow of scarce capital as well as access to advanced technology, markets and improved management and technical skills. If production is oriented toward domestic markets, efficient import substitution may occur.

However, once investment takes place, keeping foreign exchange earnings may be a problem. A study of transnational corporations operating in the Indonesian forestry sector in the early 1970s - a period of heavy transnational involvement in that country - estimated that net export earnings were probably as low as 25 percent of gross earnings, while the rest was dissipated in payments abroad (Gillis, 1981).

Transfer pricing may take place and result in values, both for imports and exports, which do not correspond to market prices. One widely used method is the underinvoicing of unit values of exports sold to affiliated companies. Host countries can counteract this by using "posted prices" for exports. This system has been used in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Sabah but experience shows that practical difficulties arise because the system relies on accurate and timely information, bureaucratic honesty and an efficient public administration - all conditions which cannot always be adequately satisfied in developing countries (De'Ath, 1980; Gillis, 1981).

The propensity of foreign investors to accelerate transfers abroad is enhanced by unstable government policies. It appears that, within limits, it is not necessarily the severity of policies that induces excessive transfers abroad but rather the uncertainty surrounding the future of such policies and the concern that fluctuations in policies will make it impossible to plan long-term investments such as those involving forestry (Gregersen and Contreras, 1975).

Negative effects of import substitution policies

A good example of the negative consequences of these policies was the Indonesian Government's decision in the early 1960s to implement a tariff on paper to protect a small number of domestic producers. Such protection led to a proliferation of domestic paper producers and to an inefficient allocation of resources. Similarly, government policies provided effective protection rates of 222 percent for plywood manufacture, thereby paving the way for waste and inefficiency in operations. In the case of the sawmilling industry, studies show that losses in export taxes paid to the government were not compensated by any gains in value added in sawmilling. In fact, the value added in sawmilling was a negative US$15/m³. In the Philippines between 1981 and 1983, the cost of producing plywood exceeded export receipts on logs converted to plywood and thus rents were completely dissipated (Repetto and Gillis, 1988).

Moreover, foreign investments may lead to increased imports of raw materials and other inputs as well as increased payments to cover expatriate salaries and other transfers abroad, thus cancelling - at least partially the effect on foreign exchange earnings and/or savings. However, the relevant question is usually what the foreign exchange position would be with and without the investment (foreign or domestic) rather than what the exchange position with foreign investment vis-à-vis that based on domestic investment would be. In many cases, the latter would not have taken place because of the technological and managerial complexities, weaker international market contacts and so on.

Employment, income generation and social impacts

MLEs vary greatly in terms of their employment impacts. Pulp and paper mills often use some of the most capital-intensive industrial processes while other production lines, such as sawmilling, can be highly labour-intensive. The proportion of skilled and unskilled workers in forest industries also varies, with the most capital-intensive industries requiring a larger proportion of the former category. Contrary to common perceptions, small-scale non-capital-intensive mills may sometimes require a high proportion of skilled workers, although tasks may be less specialized. For example, a single individual working in a simple sawmill may have to perform several functions at once (saw-doctoring, maintenance of power equipment, sawmilling). However, evidence indicates that in comparison to other industries, wood products industries excluding pulp and paper - are particularly intensive in the use of unskilled labour (Balassa, 1479).

Large forest products enterprises can have an important impact on, local employment, particularly with regard to operations in the forest itself. Since many of the forest-based industrial operations take place in depressed rural areas, MLE activity can be an important factor m providing employment opportunities where they are most needed.

Furthermore, some MLEs have substantial forward linkages to other activities which employ additional labour.

As a rule, for each ten persons employed directly in modern, large-scale forestry enterprises, another eight jobs are created in rotated sectors

The use of expatriate labour

In a project in Papua New Guinea (JANT), superior technical expertise and management remained in the hands of expatriates, even after several years of operation (De'Ath, 1980).

An assessment of a large-scale, export-oriented mill in Madagascar has shown that employment of expatriates would be necessary to fill most of the supervisory anti technically complex positions at least for the first five or six years of project operations. This may be an underestimate given that, in practice, it has proven difficult to phase out foreign personnel over even longer periods. As mentioned previously, this is one of the most technically complex manufacturing subsectors and errors in technology choice and operations can be very expensive. Thus, experienced, foreign technical expertise is often retained for long periods.

In the case of Indonesia, a tax was imposed on the use of foreign personnel as early as 1974 when the proportion of foreigners in large transnational corporations in the forest-based sector was 25 percent. Only four years later, this percentage had dropped to 5 percent (Gillis, 1981). Laws often provide for a gradual reduction in the permissible proportion of foreign employees.

Government rent capture

Figures for Asia and Africa suggest that, in the past, governments have not captured more than 25 percent of economic rents. In certain cases this proportion has been very low indeed (De'Ath, 1980). In Indonesia, several studies have documented serious inefficiencies in the system of forestry charges and reported the proportion of rent captured by the government to be as low as 27 to 30 percent (Pearce and Turner, 1990; Repetto and Gillis, 1988).

As a rule, for each ten persons employed directly in an MLE, at least eight additional jobs are created in related sectors.

A common criticism affecting foreign-owned or foreign-operated MLEs has been the fact that they tend to use a high proportion of expatriate labour. In fact, the problem seems to be more related to the proportion of expatriates in highly skilled and managerial positions. In most countries the excessive use of expatriates has been effectively eliminated with authorities having implemented legislative regulations forcing the transfer of managerial and technical responsibilities to nationals.

Expansion of employment can be achieved through regulations in contracts for public timber concessions. Regulations and incentives to encourage local production of inputs can also be effective. In the long term, employment will expand as skills improve and productivity as well as exports and import substitution increase. This is also the only way to achieve an upgrading of employment and wage levels. In many cases governments have directly subsidized worker-training programmes either in public institutions or through private enterprises. Because of their size, MLEs have the economic resources to provide effective training and education facilities.

Another common criticism of MLEs operating with large timber concessions in the least-developed countries (LDCs) is the fact that governments have captured a very small proportion of economic rents generated in the exploitation of public forest resources.

Tax policy has become the prime instrument for capturing timber rents from MLE activity and, in many countries, regulations have been substantially tightened over the past decade or so. Governments can also implement policies to render operations more transparent and increase awareness of the effects of large interventions in the tropical forest, thereby encouraging public scrutiny of private forestry operations.

Introduction of MLEs in a less developed region may have a number of disruptive social impacts on traditional society. Increased economic activity may raise local prices or make marketable products such as fuelwood, which may previously have been collected, free. Disparities in income levels may increase. A study of the effects of a new fibreboard plant installed in a formerly depressed area in Chile indicates that social tensions may have increased as a result of the broader contrast in income levels.

One group of social costs associated with large-scale activities are the so-called "boom town" effects. They occur when substantial immigration into a resource-rich area is induced by increasing economic activity. Once the resource has been depleted, unemployment, outward migration and economic stagnation follow and "ghost towns" are formed.

Another issue that has to be faced when an MLE moves to a region which previously depended on imports or small-scale industry is the impact on competition and local market structures. This impact can be either negative or positive. On the one hand, the MLE may have the undesirable effect of forcing out small local businesses. On the other hand, the new enterprise can set some improved local standards for quality, efficiency, pricing and competition in general, which can be of benefit to local consumers. In other instances the large industry may develop ways of using and marketing previously unused species. Moreover, MLEs generally create economic opportunities for smaller local businesses.

Government policy can influence the location of MLE activity and thus the regional and social distribution of impacts. The most common policy instruments used to guide industry to one region or another are region-specific incentives such as tax holidays; tax rebates; labour subsidies; preferential or subsidized credit; location-specific grants; and preferential access to raw materials. Direct government investment in infrastructure has also been used as incentive for regional location of industry. The Indian Government, for example, makes intensive use of several of these incentives to promote industrial development in economically depressed areas of the country. The Brazilian Government also has implemented several measures for the location of industry in the Amazon.

Boom town and Alberta effects

East Kalimantan in Indonesia had about 500 000 inhabitants prior to the onset of logging activity in the late 1960s. The population grew to more than one million by 1981, with an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, or more than twice the rate for the whole country during the same period. Timber production began to decline in 1980, with subsequent effects on employment in the area.

East Kalimantan and Sabah also provide examples of the so-called "Alberta" effects.

In troth cases the local governments received a disproportionate share of the wealth generated by the forestry sector and failed to distribute it to other regions in the country. This led to distortions in the allocation of economic resources in the nation as a whole.

The onset of logging activity in Indonesia led to rapid population increases in the logging areas

Technology acquisition and development

There is little documentation available on the subject of technology acquisition, adaptation and innovation in the forest-based industrial sector of developing countries.

Often, in order to increase employment opportunities, countries will initially aim at importing technologies which are labour-demanding, and move gradually toward larger-scale, capital-intensive technologies. A number of compulsory measures, including fiscal and monetary policies, can be used to guide this transition. Contractual agreements for foreign technology are being used in many countries while, in other cases, the entry of undesirable technology can be controlled by imposing outright prohibitions. The effectiveness of these policies depends on the level of technological flexibility in the different branches of the industry.

Studies show that some forest industries are technologically very flexible. For instance, the technological possibilities of sawmilling are well-known, and mechanical and chemi-mechanical pulping can also be carried out by several alternative processes. However, in other industries, flexibility is limited: some of the paper-making processes are the most technologically rigid of manufacturing processes in general.

Vertical and horizontal integration of productive units can also provide opportunities to increase employment and efficiency. Integration implies expanding size and changing technology. The integration of pulp and paper units has proven to be profitable and similar advantages can accrue in the other forest-based industries. For example, the integration of plywood or sawnwood with particle board production provides a means for fuller utilization of forest resources, including a greater use of diverse species. Integration, however, may increase the demand for scarce management and technical skills.

When choosing appropriate technology, it is most important to have a good knowledge of the alternatives available. A lack of knowledge is the main reason why inappropriate technology is used in developing countries. In the case of complex industries such as pulp and paper manufacturing, countries must often depend on a small number of highly skilled foreign consultants.

Governments trying to govern technology transfer must understand the different potentials of alternative technologies. In some cases local institutes can mount programmes to obtain and disseminate the necessary information. In many developing countries, governments may wish to focus on policies for technology search and acquisition instead of original research on the grounds that adapting what is already available and known can be the most economical way to proceed.

Environmental impacts

Large-scale, modern industry can have a considerable effect on the quality of the environment. On the positive side, large scale integrated may make more efficient use of raw forest materials than small-scale industries. Moreover, if a large-scale project is established in an area with degraded soils and is based on the establishment of a plantation or afforestation, the overall effect on the environment can be positive.

Of course, there are also environmental dangers. MLEs use large quantities of raw forest materials. For example, over a period of 20 years, a paper-mill with an output of some 150 000 tonnes per annum may need an area of 70 000 to 80 000 ha of tropical hardwoods or some 30 000 ha of plantation to satisfy its raw material needs. Damage to the forest resulting from large-scale logging can be substantial unless appropriate measures are taken. The natural habitat for wildlife is often destroyed, at least temporarily, in logged areas while the inappropriate removal of vegetation can lead to increased soil erosion on steeply sloping lands. If logs are transported via waterways, unless the bark is stripped first the level of organic material in streams may be raised.

As well as facilitating the penetration of forest areas by local or migrant populations, road construction can change the course of streams and cause flooding, ponding and stagnation during the dry season, thus leading to mosquito infestation and diseases such as malaria. The bulldozing of river beds and banks for gravel has also spoiled drinking water and induced changes in water sources, thereby affecting the welfare of local populations (De'Ath, 1980).

Effluent discharges can be a significant factor, particularly in the pulp and paper industry, but there are forms of technology that can cope successfully with this problem. Gaseous emissions may include sulphur compounds, organic compounds, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

Large-scale, modern machinery like this sawmill can make more efficient use of raw materials

However, it should be noted that these are usually controlled in large industries, as opposed to smaller industries where the cost of pollution-control systems may be excessive. On the other hand, large-scale operations produce concentrated results (given the same level of output) and therefore can more easily exceed the environment's capacity to resist damage.

In the recent past, technological innovations have led to significant reductions in the environmental damage caused by large-scale operations, particularly in the pulp and paper industry, where new methods have dramatically reduced both the required amounts of inputs such as water and the volume of pollutants discharged into waterways and the air. All these improvements entail substantial investments which can be better financed by large-scale enterprises rather than small-scale operations.

There are several policies which governments can implement to enhance positive environmental impacts and minimize negative effects. In the case of operations on public lands, provisions to ensure sound management practices by MLEs can be incorporated in contracts an concession agreements while harvesting activity can be excluded from contracts to protect certain areas. Closer integration of agricultural and forest activities and policies can help prevent land-use conflicts. Licensing can be used to discourage the overexploitation of certain ecologically valuable forest stands. However, while all this is conceptually simple, the necessary planning, monitoring and enforcement capacity of developing countries is usually very weak.

Some weak points can be partially overcome with the help of international assistance. International institutions, particularly non-governmental organizations (NGOs), have been instrumental in increasing public awareness in industrialized as well as developing countries and, consequently, in raising pressure to minimize environmental damage. International agencies have also played an important role in assessing the magnitude and effects of environmental deterioration and in designing policies to reduce the negative impacts of large-scale industrial enterprises.

Conclusions

There is a general lack of empirical information on the impacts of large-scale industrial enterprises operating in the forestry-based sector of developing countries, both in absolute terms and in relation to smaller enterprises and non-forestry enterprises. Similarly, there is little empirical information on alternative policy effects on MLE development.

The limited information that is available would suggest that the impacts of MLEs on employment have been mixed. Although MLEs use less labour per unit of capital or output than smaller enterprises, they nevertheless create job opportunities in areas which may be out of the reach of smaller enterprises. Thus, MLEs can effectively penetrate and maintain markets for certain products which might not have been secured by smaller firms. MLE operations have also resulted in the creation of more skilled posts.

MLEs are associated with increases in export earnings. In fact, most exports of industrial forest products from developing countries are carried out by MLEs. They also are responsible for most of the activities related to import substitution. On the other hand, although there is no comprehensive information on transfers abroad carried out by MLEs, there is evidence to suggest that in many cases these may be substantial.

MLEs can have a considerable effect on the environment through both their large consumption of raw forest materials and the production of effluents. The environmental impacts of MLE activity are concentrated compared with the dispersed effects of smaller industries, and damage done to natural forest by massive logging operations can be substantial. However, progress in pollution control has been very fast in recent years. New, "clean" technologies are generally expensive and, therefore, can only be applied by rather large companies. Moreover, because of their appetite for large amounts of wood, MLEs are both more prepared and more able to implement large afforestation programmes, thus providing the means to satisfy increasing global demands without increasing the pressure on remaining natural forests. In fact, there are few examples of large afforestation programmes for industrial use which have been implemented without the participation and influence of MLEs. One additional ecological risk, however, arises from the tendency of large-scale industrial plantations to be monocultural.

Serious environmental damage may result from large-scale logging and forest road construction unless appropriate measures are taken

Scant information also indicates that the social impacts of MLEs are mixed, depending on the local conditions in which they operate. On the one hand, MLEs are able to increase employment opportunities, some of which could not materialize through small-scale development. On the other hand, a proportion of workers may have to be imported into the local area. Local incomes may increase but disparities in income may be relatively greater: MLE operations may hurt the poor by creating markets for products previously collected free from the local environment and by favouring the more affluent and educated by increasing demand for their skills.

The question of effective technology transfer remains largely unanswered. What is clear is that forest industries exhibit a wide range of technological flexibility and that limited work has been carried out in adapting foreign technology to local conditions which do offer a degree of flexibility. In the case of inflexible industries, technology transfer appears to be limited. Instead, continuous dependence on foreign know-how seems to be common.

The points mentioned above suggest that government guidance of MLE development may be highly desirable; in fact, governments have tried to direct MLE operations in several ways, although evidence shows that these attempts have been neither efficient nor effective. Policies have been designed on a piecemeal basis without a proper understanding of collateral effects, cause-effect relationships or administrative requirements for their effective enforcement. Thus, royalties and concession contracts have led to the depletion and mismanagement of public forests. Tinkering with market forces (such as the imposition of log export bans) protectionist measures, administered foreign exchange rates and so on, have all too often led to the misallocation of economic resources, deforestation and forest deterioration as well as more pronounced regional imbalances and social inequality. The capacity of public administrations to govern MLE development has generally been inadequate.

Policy options are numerous and complex and give differential results in terms of progress toward national objectives. Sound policy changes and implementation appear to be the most important areas requiring a concentrated effort. Sector and policy analysis capabilities need to be greatly enhanced in developing countries if governments are to influence the development of forest-based MLEs. In most cases, international technical and financial development agencies can support these endeavours.

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