L'engagement d'une jeune nation

L'Erythrée et le suivi du Sommet mondial de l'alimentation

Une des nations les plus jeunes du monde, l'Erythrée, est devenue officiellement indépendante de l'Ethiopie en 1993 après une guerre éreintante qui a duré plus de 30 ans. Le pays n'est pas autosuffisant en céréales, même durant les meilleures années. Une grande partie de la population reste vulnérable, la base de ressources est pauvre et le pouvoir d'achat limité.
L'auteur analyse brièvement la question de la sécurité alimentaire qui est au premier plan des préoccupations de l'Erythrée depuis son indépendance. Pour donner suite au Sommet mondial de l'alimentation, des réunions, des documents et des directives spécifiques ont porté sur la stratégie la mieux adaptée pour réduire l'insécurité alimentaire à court terme et assurer la sécurité alimentaire à longue échéance. Plusieurs programmes sont actuellement mis en oeuvre pour réaliser la sécurité alimentaire. Certains sont entrepris en collaboration avec la FAO, certains avec d'autres organismes et donateurs. Toutefois, la majeure partie de ces activités est financée de source locale.

El compromiso de una joven nación

Eritrea y el seguimiento de la Cumbre Mundial sobre la Alimentación

Eritrea, una de las naciones más jóvenes del mundo, se independizó oficialmente de Etiopía tras una guerra que duró más de treinta años. Incluso en los años de cosechas más abundantes, el país no logra autoabastecerse de cereales. Gran parte de su población sigue siendo vulnerable, dispone de una base de recursos limitada y tiene escaso poder adquisitivo.
El autor traza un panorama general de la situación de la seguridad alimentaria en Eritrea, que constituye uno de los temas prioritarios para el país desde los albores de su independencia.
De conformidad con lo acordado en sesiones de la Cumbre Mundial sobre la Alimentación, se han emitido documentos y orientaciones en materia de políticas en cuanto a la estrategia más adecuada para reducir la inseguridad alimentaria a corto plazo y lograr, a largo plazo, que se instaure una situación de seguridad alimentaria. Actualmente se ejecutan diversos programas destinados a lograr la seguridad alimentaria. Algunos de ellos se realizan en cooperación con la FAO y otros en colaboración con otros organismos y donantes, pero la mayoría de estas actividades se financian localmente.

The commitment of a young nation

Eritrea and follow-up to the World Food Summit

Norman Piccioni

Chief Technical Adviser, Project GCP/ERI/002/ITA
Strengthening the National Food Information System - Eritrea

One of the youngest nations in the world, Eritrea became officially independent from Ethiopia in 1993 after a debilitating war that lasted more than 30 years. The country is not self-sufficient in cereals, even in the best productive years, and a large part of the population is still vulnerable, with a poor resource base and little purchasing power.
This article reviews the country's food security situation, which has been at the top of the agenda since the advent of independence. As follow-up to the World Food Summit, some specific sessions, documents and policy guidelines have been released, focusing on the best strategy for diminishing food insecurity in the short term and achieving food security in the long term. A number of programmes are now being implemented in order to achieve food security. Some are being carried out in cooperation with FAO, while others have been undertaken in cooperation with other agencies and donors. The majority of activities involved, however, are locally funded.

One of the youngest nations in the world, Eritrea became officially independent from Ethiopia in 1993 after a debilitating war that lasted more than 30 years.¹ The agricultural sector employs more than 80 percent of the working population, but its production has not managed to cover internal food demand in recent years.

The country is not self-sufficient in cereals, even in the most productive years. A large part of the population has a poor resource base and little purchasing power, and is likely to become vulnerable to food insecurity. Eritrea's growth potential lies in the country's strategic location, a talented and hard-working population and a well-developed system of community participation.

Food security has been at the top of the agenda since independence. As a follow-up to the World Food Summit, some specific sessions have been held and documents and policy guidelines released concerning the best strategy for diminishing food insecurity in the short term and achieving food security in the long term. A number of programmes are now being implemented in order to achieve food security. Some are being carried out in cooperation with FAO, while others are being undertaken with other agencies and donors. The majority of these initiatives, however, are locally funded.

The various activities are coordinated under the umbrella of an agricultural policy consistent with the general policy framework: a market-based form of food security, with long-term government support in infrastructure and services, and short-term public sector involvement in initiating activities in areas where the private sector is lacking.

The production component of the strategy aims at increasing the number of cultivated hectares and at enhancing land productivity. The objective is to strengthen the small household sector while opening market opportunities for commercial agricultural production.

The trade component focuses on how to reduce imports of food, aiming at efficient import substitution in basic foods, along with export promotion. It is recognized that a linkage with the other economic sectors is vital for acquiring foreign exchange and increasing purchasing power.

The monitoring component relies on the strengthening of a national food information system that collects, analyses and disseminates timely information on agricultural production, statistics, market prices, nutrition and coping strategies for vulnerable groups.

In developing its agricultural strategy for the future, the Government of Eritrea faces major policy choices. If droughts do not seriously affect the country, an annual growth rate of about 4 percent could be set as an ambitious but still realistic target for 1996-2010. If achieved, it would entail a massive expansion of domestic foodgrain output by the year 2010, but there would still be a growing deficit. The possible options imply a careful analysis of tradeoffs and integration between the growth of small household and commercial farm production and other sectors of the economy that can substantially compensate the agricultural production deficit.

FOOD SECURITY IN ERITREA: AN OVERVIEW

One of the youngest nations in the world, Eritrea became officially independent from Ethiopia in 1993 after a debilitating war that lasted more than 30 years. Positioned at the lower end of the low-income countries of the world, its GDP per caput figures are estimated to range from US$140 to US$160.

The country's low per caput income is reflected in its poor human capital and social indicators. Life expectancy at birth is estimated to be as low as 47 years, compared with 50 years for the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, while the under-five child mortality rate is a high 203 per 1 000 live births, compared with 196 for sub-Saharan Africa. Daily caloric intake in 1993 was estimated at 1 750 kcal per person, 93 percent of the minimum requirement, when the average for sub-Saharan Africa was 2 100 kcal.

With large annual variations in output, Eritrea's agricultural production has fluctuated from as much as 260 000 tonnes to as low as 86 000 tonnes in recent years (Table 1), while food requirements are estimated to be in the range of 400 000 to 500 000 tonnes.²

TABLE 1
Foodgrains production in Eritrea, 1992-1997

Source: 1997 data from the Early Warning and Food Information Unit of the Eritrean Ministry of Agriculture and FAO.

According to the Eritrean Ministry of Agriculture, besides total rainfall and its distribution (which are highly variable), the main factors constraining the national production of food are the lack of access to genetically improved seeds, the unavailability of draught animals for ploughing, an endemic infestation of stem borer and striga, as well as the incidence of other migratory and non-migratory pests and diseases.

In the long term, food production may be also constrained by other factors such as land scarcity, a shortage of water resources for irrigation, a lack of locally appropriate, high-yielding varieties of food crops and the declining soil fertility resulting from continuous cropping without the addition of fertilizer.

Even where population pressure is low and rainfall conditions allow cropping, there may be serious constraints owing to poor infrastructure, pest attacks and malaria.

The country is therefore currently not self-sufficient in grain, even in the most productive years (e.g. 1994/95). Food imports are and will remain a key factor in overcoming hunger and malnutrition. Food is not guaranteed for all; a large part of the population is still vulnerable, with a poor resource base and little purchasing power. However, an expansion and upgrading of the agricultural sector would significantly reduce that need.

UPGRADING THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Agriculture, largely smallholder farming, accounts for about 21 percent of GDP formation. Industry and trade, which underwent considerable development in the past, were greatly affected by the protracted war of independence. Limited quantities of minerals exist but have not been exploited. There are potential deposits of oil under the Red Sea, but no proven economic reserves have yet been identified. Fisheries are the richest known natural resource.

Eritrea's growth potential lies in the country's strategic location, its talented and hard-working population and a well-developed system of community participation. Eritrea has a wealth of experience in entrepreneurship and commerce. Many families rely on remittances from Eritreans living abroad, whose savings, if attracted, could make a substantial addition to national development.

As a matter of fact, prior to the war, Eritrea had a well-established and flourishing agricultural sector in both the commercial and the subsistence production systems. Horticultural products were produced for both national and export markets. The livestock sector was highly developed and included a dairy subsector. However, at the time of liberation in 1991, Eritrea inherited an agricultural sector that was neglected, isolated and severely affected by the war. Combined with severe droughts, most commercial farm activity ceased, resulting in a net loss in farm assets.

Until the time of liberation, few consistent data on agricultural statistics were kept for Eritrea. However, it is reasonable to conclude that the agricultural performance in the last few years has improved substantially, although the upward trend may have been masked by the effects of drought.

Out of a total surface of 124 300 km2, only 450 000 ha are currently cultivated because of the arid conditions of the rest of the country. On the other hand, irrigated areas account for only 25 000 ha, of which only 4 000 have perennial irrigation. Browsing and grazing lands extend over about 7 million of ha, but are characterized by a low carrying capacity. Woodlands account for about 670 000 ha, what remains of an estimated national forest cover of 20 percent two decades ago.

The country is now divided into six agro-ecological zones. Crop production is concentrated on three of them: the Central Highlands, the Western Lowlands and the Eastern Lowlands, which are the most humid zones.

The Central Highlands, where most of the population (>65 percent) is located, make up the main crop area. They are characterized by rainfed cereal and pulse production systems, with very low input levels, depending on animal power for ploughing and threshing. Wheat, barley, sorghum, finger millet, maize, teff,³ peas, beans, chickpeas and linseed are the main crops. The average yields in years of reasonably good rainfall are in the order of 0.8 to 0.9 tonnes/ha for cereals and around 0.5 tonnes/ha for pulses. They include small areas of irrigated horticultural systems and semi-commercial peri-urban dairy and poultry systems.

Nomadic pastoralist and semi-sedentary agropastoralist systems dominate in the Lowlands and escarpment zones. The main activity is livestock husbandry (camels, cattle and small ruminants).

Human and animal population pressure has resulted in a high degree of environmental degradation, particularly in the Highlands.

AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND THE FOLLOW-UP TO THE WORLD FOOD SUMMIT

Food security has been at the top of the agenda since independence. As a follow-up to the World Food Summit, specific discussions and documents and policy guidelines have focused on the best strategy for diminishing food insecurity in the short term and achieving food security in the long term. The national food security strategy seeks greater food self-sufficiency, but realistically acknowledges the need for commercial imports of food to make the most of the country's comparative advantage and seize on trade opportunities in agricultural products. Improved production, trade and monitoring are considered the three pillars supporting food security in the country.

The production component of the food security strategy aims at increasing the number of cultivated hectares and enhancing land productivity. While rainfed agriculture is considered vital for the supply of staple foods, the expansion of irrigated area is likewise considered essential for high-value crops. The objective is to strengthen the household production sector, while opening up market opportunities for commercial agricultural production. The emphasis on smallholder development is complemented by stress on community initiative and self-management, qualities which were developed in rural areas during the war of liberation.

The trade component focuses on reducing food imports, aiming at efficient import substitution in basic foods as well as export promotion. It is recognized that a linkage with other economic sectors is vital for acquiring foreign exchange and increasing purchasing power.

The monitoring component of the strategy relies on the strengthening of a national food information system that collects, analyses and disseminates timely information on agricultural production, statistics, market prices, nutrition and coping strategies for vulnerable groups.

IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY

Since winning its freedom, Eritrea has demonstrated a strong dedication to the goals of nation building, economic reconstruction and recovery as well as and support for introducing a pragmatic and liberal market economy. In May 1991 the government launched the Recovery and Rehabilitation Programme, aimed at jump-starting the economy. The objective of the agricultural component of this programme is to reactivate essential production, rehabilitate infrastructure, restore community assets and build institutional capacity. The government is taking an active role in the provision of inputs, tractor hire services, tools and oxen to farmers, so as to fill the void left by the previous regime and the absence of a private sector. A long-term development strategy has now emerged, with the overall objective of creating a modern and internationally competitive economy within the next two decades. This objective should be achieved by promoting an efficient, outward-looking market economy led by the private sector but with the government fostering private activities, in part through commercially based public investment programmes in strategic subsectors to initiate economic growth.

However, there are major constraints and challenges to the successful implementation of the strategy for agriculture and rural development, the most important probably being the development of the smallholder sector. Smallholders make up the majority of farmers and will do so for the near future. Upgrading the peasant sector through agricultural intensification and the production of a marketable surplus will be the core of agricultural policy.

Owing to the low degree of food self-sufficiency, the shortage of foreign exchange and the fact that the vast majority of farmers produce for local consumption, expanded food production will continue to be a top priority. Nevertheless, given its favourable location in regional markets, the country can also take advantage of opportunities for promoting export production, mainly of fruits, vegetables and small ruminants. In the next two decades, Eritrea could realistically establish a firm and expanding export niche, which could be expanded in the future to achieve export-oriented agricultural growth.

Irrigated agriculture is expensive in Eritrea, and returns to investments will be analysed with great care vis-à-vis the opportunity cost of alternative uses of capital. Past experiences in other African countries have shown that large irrigation schemes are less efficient and offer lower returns than small ones in terms of improvements in water use. Conversely, smaller schemes are more sustainable and have more impact on farmers' incomes. Temporary and permanent closures of highly degraded areas have been carried out in recent years and can be combined very successfully with improved watershed management, especially if based on community-imposed rules and systems to monitor access to communal and forest resources.

AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY

Prices for agricultural commodities have a critical role in determining food availability in the market as well as its distribution in the country, and they therefore have a profound influence on food security. In deciding the price of an agricultural output, farmers are expected to be remunerated in such a way that it does not harm the non-producing sector, i.e. the consumers. The price policy for agricultural commodities is taking into account not only a comprehensive overview of the entire structure of the economy of a particular commodity, but also many other important factors such as terms of trade, price parity, effects on the cost of production, effects on the cost of living and the demand and supply situation.

MONITORING FOOD SECURITY

The needs for food information in Eritrea relate to the quantification of annual cereal import requirements and the early identification of emerging food crises among specific vulnerable groups of the population.

Besides targeting beneficiaries and matching types, quantities, timing and duration of relief to actual requirements, decision-makers will need information also in other aspects of food security, including: regular crop forecasts; cross-border flows of people, food and livestock; grazing conditions and herd sizes; prices of food and livestock; and other major determinants and indicators of the food security status of vulnerable groups.

The development of a reliable food information system in these areas has been seen by the Government of Eritrea as a condicio sine qua non to effective planning of food imports and relief operations since the independence of the country.

For this purpose, in 1993, the government established the National Food Information System (NFIS). Initial assistance to the NFIS was provided by FAO under an IGAD⁴ regional project and a national technical cooperation project (TCP). These projects reviewed the situation with regard to the availability of data and the requirements for technical assistance to the Ministry of Agriculture and other participating agencies.

At present, Eritrea's NFIS is being strengthened with FAO assistance through a trust fund project financed by the Government of Italy.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY

The Government of Eritrea now faces major policy choices in the development of its agricultural strategy for the future. First, there are the possible tradeoffs and complementarities between inward-oriented staple food production and outward-oriented horticultural and livestock production. Second, there will be a need for both intensification of production for the peasant sector and extensification of production for the commercial sector. Intensification is a suitable option for the Central Highlands, while commercial farming could be expanded in the Lowlands and the escarpments. This dual strategy would allow increases in both food crops (by peasants) and export crops (by commercial farms). An expansion of irrigation would be derived from the balance in emphasis between food crops (rainfed) and export crops (increasingly irrigated).

With input from FAO, the government has been developing a comprehensive investment programme for agricultural development. The programme, with a six- to eight-year horizon, focuses on institution-building, environment/soil conservation, rainfed crop production, irrigation, reforestation, animal husbandry, fisheries, and nutrition.

At present growth projections are only tentative, and therefore development targets for Eritrean agriculture are not yet quantified. The FAO study World agriculture: towards 2010 (FAO, 1995), which estimated quantitative growth scenarios for the agricultural sector of developing countries, did not include Eritrea, since it had only just attained independence on the report's completion.

However, an estimate of the workable level of food self-sufficiency attainable by the year 2010 can be generated on the basis of reasonable assumptions (FAO, 1996).

Assuming for 1995-2010 an annual population growth rate of 2.8 percent, an annual increase in per caput income of 1.5 percent and an income elasticity of demand for foodgrains of 0.4, the annual growth rate of the national demand for foodgrains would be 3.4 percent during the period. Assuming the country's actual utilization of foodgrains in 1995 to have been 500 000 tonnes, 825 000 tonnes would be required in 2010 to satisfy the demand for foodgrains.

TABLE 2
Estimated growth of foodgrain demand up to 2010

TABLE 3
Projected annual supply growth rate (SGR) of foodgrains up to 2010

Under this assumption, the demand for foodgrains in 2010 would be more than triple the best production level recorded in the last five years, and almost ten times the output of the worst level recorded in the last five years.

Complete self-sufficiency in foodgrain production by the year 2010 would therefore require an annual production growth rate of more than 10 percent, a non-realistic target.

However, an annual growth rate of about 4 percent could be set as an ambitious but still realistic target for 1996-2010, if droughts do not seriously affect the country. If achieved, it would entail a massive expansion of domestic foodgrain output by the year 2010, but there would still be a growing deficit. The possible options, as stated above, imply a careful analysis of tradeoffs and integration between the growth of small household and commercial farm production and other sectors of the economy that can substantially compensate the agricultural production deficit.

POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS

As a part of the post-war rehabilitation programme, a comprehensive strategy for strengthening the public sector is being implemented. However, the institutional capacity of most of the agricultural support institution is still weak. This is due to different reasons, among them the lack of skilled personnel, appropriate methodologies, adapted techniques and infrastructure. On the other hand, this is in part made up for by staff commitment and by an efficient system of accountability which have allowed the setting up of a network for input distribution, an applied research and extension service, an improved monitoring system and increasing credit facilities for the rural households.

In broad terms, the environment for agricultural development is clear: it consists of stable and transparent markets, predictable and reliable inflation rates, limited and manageable budget deficits and stable real interest rates.

Market and trade policy will centre on a phased liberalization process. Both the private and public sectors will have equal investment opportunities, with unrestricted repatriation of capital and remittance of capital profits. The main tools for export promotion will be a competitive foreign exchange rate policy, a pro-investment taxation policy and preferential trade financing mechanisms.

¹ Eritrea's struggle for independence, one of the longest in Africa's history, lasted for more than three decades. It began in 1962, following the annexation of Eritrea by Ethiopia, and intensified after the military coup in Ethiopia in 1974. The Eritrean Peoples' Liberation Front liberated Eritrea in May 1991 and, after a referendum, Eritrea formally gained its independence in May 1993.

²Estimates of the current population figures are few and range widely from 2.8 to 3.5 million people. This lack of basic data makes it difficult to draft food balance sheets for estimating real food requirements and deficits.

³ Teff, or taff (Eragrostis abyssinica) plays a major role in the traditional diet of the highlands.

⁴The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) comprises seven East African countries, among them Eritrea.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

FAO. 1995. World agriculture: towards 2010. Edited by N. Alexandratos. Chichester, UK, FAO-Wiley.

FAO. 1996. World Food Summit follow-up - draft strategy for national agricultural development, horizon 2010. Rome.

Government of Eritrea. 1995. Medium-Term Plan and Strategy for National Agricultural Research. Asmara, Ministry of Agriculture.

Government of Eritrea. 1996a. A Strategy for Food Security in Eritrea 1996-2000. Asmara, National Food Security Committee.

Government of Eritrea. 1996b. Monitoring food security in Eritrea. Discussion Paper. Asmara, Ministry of Agriculture.

Government of Eritrea. 1997a. FAO TCP/ERI/4554: Agro-Ecological Zones Map of Eritrea. Asmara, Ministry of Land, Water and Environment.

Government of Eritrea. 1997b. FAO GCPS/ERI/002/ITA: National Food Information System Strategy and Work Plan. Asmara, Ministry of Agriculture.

The Eritrean Profile. 1995. Vol. 2(31) October 14; (32) October 21; (34) November 4.

The Eritrean Profile. 1996. Vol. 3(36) November 16; Vol. 2(49) February 17; (51) March 2; (52) March 9.

World Bank. 1995. Trends in Developing Economies. Washington, DC.