WORKING PAPER SERIES
Working Paper No: APFSOS/WP/20
by
International Tropical Timber Organization
Yokohama
Japan
FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Forestry Policy and Planning Division, Rome
Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
May 1997
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The Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study is being undertaken under the auspices of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission. This report comes under Workplan Number E26.6. |
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This report was prepared for the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), Yokohama, Japan, by Douglas H. Williams (Ph.D.) of Cortex Consultants Inc., drawing on work undertaken by ITTO through projects PD 182/91 Rev. 1 (M), PD 28/93 Rev. 3 (M) and PPD 10/95 Rev. 2 (M): "Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia-Pacific Region", Phases I, II and III. The contribution of the ITTO to the regional outlook study which is appreciated by FAO and the Regional Commission. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Tropical Timber Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. |
This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software and careful manual recorrection. Even if the quality of digitalisation is high, the FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.
INFORMATION NOTE ON ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY
1.1 Scope
1.2 Organization of the Report
1.3 ITTO Trade Model
2.1 Log Supply from Estate Crops and Plantations
2.2.1 Indochina - Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam
2.2.2 Indonesia
2.2.3 Peninsular Malaysia
2.2.4 Sabah
2.2.5 Sarawak
2.2.6 Myanmar
2.2.7 Papua New Guinea
2.2.8 Philippines
2.2.9 Solomon Islands
2.2.10 Thailand2.3 Incremental Sources of Supply
2.3.1 Improved Utilization
2.3.2 Low-impact Harvesting Technology
2.3.3 Conifer Logs
3. DEMAND FOR TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS
3.1 Forecasting Product Consumption
3.2 Substitution
4. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND TRADE
4.1 Current Industry Structure
4.1.1 Overview
4.1.2 Logging Sector
4.1.3 Sawmilling Sector
4.1.4 Veneer Sector
4.1.5 Plywood Sector4.3 Factors Influencing the Pattern of Industrial Development and Trade
4.3.1 Natural Forest Supply Restrictions
4.3.2 Barriers and Incentives
4.3.3 Demand Growth
5. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS TO 2010
5.1 Summary scenario results
5.2 Base Case Scenario
5.3 Scarcity Scenario
5.4 Stronger Demand with Scarcity Scenario
6. CONCLUSIONS - FORECASTS OF INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND TRADE FLOWS TO 2010