# 4. RESULTS

## 4.1 Plywood

Plywood is the most important wood-based panel product in China with its production (large statistical base and high starting point) and pace of development (rapid growth) at the forefront compared to other panel products. China is also a major importer of tropical plywood and demand/supply in China's plywood panel market has direct impact on the world's plywood market.

### 4.1.1 Status Quo in the Early 1990s

The actual data for China's annual production, consumption, volume and value of import and export of plywood are given in Table 1, 11, 15 and 20. At the national level, the statistical base for plywood production is large and the growth is rapid. Volume of import has been around 1-2 million m3 primarily from Indonesia followed by Malaysia. China has been a major importer of forest products and it is among the net importing countries with little export which is the case for plywood in particular, the import and export difference has always been several dozen times. At the provincial level, Shandong Province is China's major province for plywood production with an output of 1.5889 million m3 in 1995 accounting for 20.9% of the country's total of 7.5926 million m3, followed by Hebei, Jiangsu and Fujian etc. Due to its special location and consumption requirements, Guangdong Province has been China's major importing province of plywood with an import of 1.300906 million m3 in 1995 or 62.5% of the country's total of 2.082925 million m3, followed by Shanghai and Fujian etc.

### 4.1.2 Outlook for the Year 2010

In accordance with the actual data and the approach and process of outlook projection, the regression equation for the trend of development of plywood production between 1989 and 1994 is: y = 472643 + 400003x. "y" stands for production, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1989 is taken as the base year "0". Its value of deviation is smaller than that concluded from regressions using the geometric average curve and the exponential curve.

The adjusted regression equation after comparison with the 1995 data is: y = 5192582 + 400003x.

The adjusted regression equation for consumption projection concluded by using the same method is y = 5488779 + 676288x. "y" stands for consumption, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1990 is taken as 1 (in consistence with the assumption that the year 1989 is the base year "0") (for reasons see 2.3.1.2). Its value of deviation is smaller than that concluded from regressions using the geometric average curve and the exponential curve.

Comparison between the actual data of import and export volume of plywood between 1990 and 1995 (see Table 1) reveals that the difference between import and export is as great as several dozen times. The study takes the average of 40 times as the basis for calculation. The formula is:

 Volume of import = (consumption - production) × import/export ratio/(import/export ratio-1) Volume of export = (consumption-production)/(import/export ratio - 1)

With these formula, the outlook projection data (unit: 1,000 m3) for China's plywood market in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010 are calculated (and adjusted accordingly) as follows:

 Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Consumption 10,000 12,500 15,500 18,000 Production 7,950 9,550 11,550 13,550 Import Volume 2,100 3,030 4,050 4,560 Export Volume 50 80 100 110

The specific outlook projection process, regression parameters, value of deviation, and projection tables and maps for production and consumption are given in tables 3 and 4.

## 4.2 Veneer

As mentioned above, veneers are semi-products in China mainly for plywood production (excluding sliced veneer), there is no production statistics and little trade in the market, therefore, it is neither possible nor meaningful to make projections on future production. However, it must be noted that China will be one of the major potential importing countries of veneer products (rotary veneer in particular). The reason underlining this is that China is short of forest resources, especially large diameter timber resources for plywood production, and that some tropical timber exporting countries are further reducing export of logs to promote their domestic greater value added wood processing industries (it is more beneficial to export veneer rather than logs), large veneer import for surface board of plywood (the core board can be produced from domestic timber) to improve plywood quality at reasonable cost is a very practical strategy for plywood development in China. As a matter of fact, this trend is becoming more and more obvious. On this basis and in light of the veneer import and export ratio (about 10 times, see tables 1,16 and 21) over the years, this study makes the following outlook projection on China's import and export volume of veneer products (unit: 1,000 m3):

 Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Import Volume 400 600 850 1,100 Export Volume 40 60 80 110

## 4.3 Particleboard

Particleboard is also one of the major wood-based panel products in China. Although rapid development of the particleboard industry is restricted to certain extent by such problems as poor product quality and abnormal production in some enterprises due to shortage of raw materials and techniques, the industry is still developing fairly rapidly. By now, there are two particleboard plants in China with an annual productive capacity of 100,000 m3 and 80,000 m3 respectively and 8 lines with an annual productive capacity of 50,000 m3 each. Most of the equipment for the particleboard lines with an annual productive capacity of over 50,000 m3 were imported from Germany (Bison Company, Siempelkamp Company and Schenck Panel Production System GmbH) and the production capacity of domestically made equipment can reach only 30,000 m3.

### 4.3.1 Status Quo in the Early 1990s

The actual data for China's annual production, consumption, volume and value of import and export of particleboard are given in Table 1,12,17 and 22. At the national level, the statistical base for particleboard production is not as large as that of plywood with relatively slow growth. Its import and export trade is far behind plywood with a stable and descending trend in recent years. At the provincial level, Shandong Province is also China's major province for particleboard production with an output of 1.1562 million m3 or 26.6% of the country's total of 4.351 million m3, followed by Jiangsu and Heilongjiang provinces etc.

### 4.3.2 Outlook for the Year 2010

With the same methods and procedures for plywood, the adjusted regression equation of outlook projection on particleboard production is: y = 2606782 + 290703x. "y" stands for production, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1989 is set as the base year "0". Its value of deviation is much smaller than that concluded from regressions using the geometric average curve and the exponential curve.

Similarly, the adjusted regression equation for outlook projection on particleboard consumption is: y = 2698565 + 283220x. "y" stands for consumption, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1992 is set as "3" (in consistence with the assumption that the year 1989 is the base year "0"). (for reasons see 2.3.1.2). Its value of deviation is much smaller than that concluded from regressions using the geometric average curve and the exponential curve.

The projected outlook data for particleboard import and export can be calculated based on that the average ratio between export and import over the year is 1:10.

Hence, the projected outlook data (unit: 1,000 m3) for China's particleboard market in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010 are calculated (and adjusted accordingly) as follows:

 Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Consumption 4,650 5,800 7,250 8,650 Production 4,600 5,750 7,200 8,600 Import Volume 56 56 56 56 Export Volume 6 6 6 6

The specific outlook projection process, regression parameters, value of deviation, and projection tables and maps for production and consumption are given in tables 5 and 6.

## 4.4 Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF)

### 4.4.1 Status Quo in the Early 1990s

Due to the advantages of low density, good processing characteristics and sound properties, MDF production has developed very rapidly in China. There was a "hot" period for MDF products in China in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, the current MDF production is not high (even in 1995) and the productive capacity of most MDF lines has not brought into full play due to various reasons (for instance, some production lines import the key machines and use domestic equipment for other sections of the line which results in problems in matching up the imported and domestic equipment, particularly for the automatic controlling system). Statistics show that there were nearly 40 MDF plants in China in 1995, of which there was only one plant with an annual productive capacity of 100,000 m3, two plants 50,000 m3, 11 plants 30,000 m3, and most of the remaining plants around 15,000-20,000 m3. Most of the equipment in the production lines with an productive capacity of over 30,000 m3 were imported from overseas with one exception only which uses domestic machines to produce 30,000 m3 of MDF products.

China's total MDF productive capacity exceeded 1 million m3 in 1995 whereas production was merely 536,900 m3, only about half of the productive capacity (roughly the same in 1993 and 1994). As far as import and export are concerned, volume of import in 1995 was merely 31,800 m3, and volume of export was 6,746 m3. This is because of the fact that, at the global scale, the scale of development for MDF is lagging far behind that for particleboard with little trade activities. The actual data related to the annual production, consumption, volume and value of import and export for MDF between 1990 and 1995 are given in Tables 1,13,18 and 23. From the provincial viewpoint, Guangdong Province is China's major province for MDF production with an output of 143,500 m3 in 1995 accounting for 26.7% of the country's total of 536,900 m3.

### 4.4.2 Outlook for the Year 2010

As described above, half of the MDF productive capacity in China has not been brought into full play. However, along with the settlement of the technological queries and standardization of market mechanism, this problem is expected to be solved by the early 21 century. In this connection, this study has enlarged the projected values year after year between 1996 and 1999 in regression equations for production and consumption, and after the year 2000, the enlargement is almost doubled to show the upward-adjusted projection values for MDF.

The initial projected production equation is: y = -18257 + 90636x. "y" stands for production, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1990 is set as "1" (in consistence with the assumption that the year 1989 is the base year "0") (the simulated regression uses the 1995 production data instead of those in 1989).

Similarly, the initial projected consumption equation is: y = 24181 + 77937x. "y" stands for production, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1992 is set as "3" (in consistence with the assumption that the year 1989 is the base year "0") (for reasons see 2.3.1.2).

The projected outlook data for MDF import and export can be calculated based on that the average ratio between export and import is over the years is 3:1.

Hence, the outlook projected data (unit: 1,000 m3) for China's MDF market in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010 are calculated (and adjusted accordingly) as follows:

 Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Consumption 750 2,300 3,400 4,000 Production 700 2,100 2,900 3,700 Import Volume 75 300 750 450 Export Volume 25 100 250 150

The specific outlook projection process, regression parameters, value of deviation, and projection tables and maps for production and consumption are given in tables 7 and 8.

## 4.5 Hardboard

### 4.5.1 Status Quo in the Early 1990s

The actual data for China's annual production, consumption, volume and value of import and export of hardboard are given in tables 1,14,19 and 24.

As a traditional wood-based panel product, hardboard witnessed rapid development in the 1960s and the early 1970s. However, rapid development of particleboard since the late 1970s, particularly from the 1980s, has slowed down to some extent hardboard development. The increase of people's living standards makes consumers to favour the three-ply plywood with better quality and at higher prices. Small scale production (mostly 2,000 tons) of hardboard is very difficult to achieve sound economic benefits which reduces the competitive capacity of the products. In recent years, environmental issues have been given top priority. As a result, the wet process hardboard plants which discharge large volume of waste water have to invest in effluent treatment which, in return, increases the production costs. All these factors will hinder hardboard development.

### 4.5.2 Outlook for the Year 2010

Similarly to the above methods, the projected production equation concluded from the simulated regression which includes the actual production data of 1995 is: y = 1072714 + 33029x. "y" stands for production, the unit is m3, x stands for year, and the year 1989 is set as the base year "0".

Similarly, the projected consumption equation is: y = 995828 + 59169x. "y" stands for consumption, the unit is m3, "x" stands for year, and the year 1992 is set as "3" (in consistence with the assumption that the year 1989 is the base year "0") (for reasons see 2.3.1.2).

The projected outlook data (unit: 1,000 m3) for China's hardboard market are calculated and adjusted accordingly as follows based on the average ratio (about 2:1) between export and import over the years.

 Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Consumption 1,400 1,600 1,900 2,200 Production 1,300 1,430 1,600 1,760 Import Volume 200 340 600 880 Export Volume 100 170 300 440

The specific outlook projection process, regression parameters, value of deviation, and projection tables and maps for production and consumption are given in tables 9 and 10.

## 4.6 Summary Table

For the summary of social and economic development data and projected values of the wood-based panel market, see Table 2.