WORKING PAPER SERIES
ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY TOWARDS 2010
FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Working Paper No: APFSOS/WP/40(a)
by
Michael J. Lyons
MJ Forest Industries Consultants Sdn Bhd
10A SPB Towers, Jalan Batai,
5490 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Tel/Fax: +60.3.255.8988
Forest Policy and Planning Division, Rome
Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
August 1997
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The Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study is being undertaken under the auspices of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission. This report comes under Workplan Number E26.1. |
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This Document (APFSOS/WP/40(a)) by M.J. Lyons is the first of two companion working papers on the Asia-Pacific wood-based panels outlook. It covers the whole of the region including China; document APFSOS/WP/40(b) by Lu Wenming covers only China. The analysis of historical trends, status, driving forces for growth, and investment, are important contributions of this report. The assessment of future prospects is somewhat undermined by the severe dislocation of the region's economies which make many assumed future economic growth rates in this report too optimistic, at least in the short term. The separate Study on China's Wood Based Panel Market, with an Outlook for the Years 2000 to 2010, was commissioned from the Chinese Academy of Forestry in Beijing and carried out by Dr. Lu Wenming. The Chinese Study has separated the historical data on the production, consumption and trade in wood based panels into the 30 separate Regions and Provinces of China, but for the future consumption projections, the figures are for China as a single market. Some confusion has arisen from the fact that, before 1995, the Chinese Academy of Forestry's official statistics on the production and consumption of wood based panels included only the state sector enterprises (at or above the township level). However from 1995 onwards, the statistical scope was expanded to include all village-run enterprises and private village enterprises with annual sales income exceeding 1 million RMB Yuan. This has caused what appear to be huge increases in the production figures shown for 1995 compared to the recorded figures up to 1994 (sometimes by a factor of 300%). This overall regional report has mainly used the historical Chinese data from the China report, but has sometimes had to resort to alternative estimates for historical Chinese data, to bring obviously under-recorded figures into balance with known or reasonable panel production or consumption growth rates. The Chinese study has also been unable to supply any data for veneer production, so the main Outlook Study has used historical data abstracted from the FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. |
This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software and careful manual recorrection. Even if the quality of digitalisation is high, the FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.
INFORMATION NOTE ON ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY
2.1. Current Consumption Patterns
2.2. Future Consumption Projections
3. CURRENT SITUATION IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION 1990-1995
3.1. Market Overview
3.2. Plywood and Veneer
3.3. Particleboard
3.4. Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF)
3.5. Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
3.6. Hard and Soft Fibreboard
3.7. Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL)
3.8. Other Panel Products
4. THE MAIN DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMPTION AND TRADE
4.1. The effect of economic growth
4.2. The importance of external trade
4.3. The growth in construction activity
4.4. Development of the furniture industry
4.5. Substitution within wood based panel categories
5. THE AVAILABILITY OF RAW MATERIALS
5.1. The availability of large diameter roundwood
5.2. The availability of small diameter plantation industrial roundwood
5.3. The availability and use of mill residues
5.4. The availability and use of Rubberwood
5.5. The possible use of Oil Palm fibre residues
5.6. The use of Agricultural residues
6. FUTURE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE SCENARIOS TO 2010
6.1. General Overview
6.2. North Asia6.2.1. China
6.2.2. Japan
6.2.3. Republic of Korea
6.2.4. Taiwan Province of China
6.2.5. China, Hong Kong SAR and Macau6.3.1. Indonesia
6.3.2. Malaysia
6.3.3. Thailand
6.3.4. Philippines
6.3.5. Singapore
6.3.6. Brunei
6.3.7. Vietnam
6.3.8. Myanmar, Laos & Cambodia6.4.1. Australia
6.4.2. New Zealand
6.4.3. Papua New Guinea
6.4.4. Fiji
6.4.5. Other Islands6.5.1. India
6.5.2. Pakistan
6.5.3. Sri Lanka
6.5.4. Bangladesh
6.5.5. Bhutan
6.5.6. Maldives & Nepal
7. PLANNED PANEL CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
7.1. Plywood & Veneer
7.2. Particleboard
7.3. Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF)
7.4. OSB and LVL
7.5. Other Fibreboard
8. FUTURE REGIONAL WBP TRADE BALANCE FORECASTS FOR 2010
8.1. Trade Flows to the six major Importing Countries
8.2. Trade Flows from the six major Exporting CountriesTable 1 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 2 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 3 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 4 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 5 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 6 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 7 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 8 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 9 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 10 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 11 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 12 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 13 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 14 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 15 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 16 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 17 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 18 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 19 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 20 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 21 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 22 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 23 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 24 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 25 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-1995
Table 26 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 27 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 28 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 29 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 30 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 31 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 32 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 33 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 34 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 35 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 36 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 37 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 38 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 39 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 40 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 41 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 42 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 43 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 44 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 45 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 46 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 47 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 48 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 49 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 50 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1995-2010
Table 51 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 52 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 53 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 54 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 55 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 56 - FAO Asia Pacific Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - 1990-2010
Table 57 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - Major Importers
Table 58 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - Major Exporters
Table 59 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - MDF Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 60 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - MDF Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 61 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - MDF Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 62 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - Particleboard Capacity (m³/Year)
Table 63 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - Particleboard Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 64 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - MDF Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 65 - FAO Outlook Study On Wood Based Panels - Particleboard Capacity (M³/Year)
Table 66 - Forecast WBP Trade Balance For Six Major Importers - 2010
Table 67 - Forecast WBP Trade Balance For Six Major Importers - 2010