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Appendix 2: Model for estimating mass and number of times indigenous medicine is used in Durban

Scenario 1: Estimates based on healers and street traded quantities

53% of black population consuming 83.3g per healers consultation

Number of times used

% of sample

Number of users

Total users

Number of times used

Average mass of prescribed medicine

Total tonnes

2.5

0.37

1 294 260

478 876

1 197 191

83.3

100

1

0.32

1 294 260

414 163

414 163

83.3

34

8

0.18

1 294 260

232 967

1 863 734

83.3

155

5

0.13

1 294 260

168 254

841 269

83.3

70

Total number


1 294 260

4 316 357


360

31% of black population consuming 216.5g per street purchase

Number of times used

% of sample

Number of users

Total users

Number of times used

Average mass of purchased medicine

Total tonnes

2.5

0.37

757 020

280 097

700 244

216.5

152

1

0.32

757 020

242 246

242 246

216.5

52

8

0.18

757 020

136 264

1 090109

216.5

236

5

0.13

757 020

98 413

492 063

216.5

107

Total number


757 020

2 524 622


547

Total for healers and street trade


2 051 280

6 841 019


906

Average frequency of use - weighted by % of sample


3.34



Scenario 2: Estimates based on street traded quantities assuming wastage at healers and shops

84% of black population using 216.5g per consultation/purchase

Number of times used

% of sample

Number of users

Total users

Number of times used

Average mass of prescribed medicine

Total tonnes

2.5

0.37

2 051 280

758 974

1 897 434

216.5

411

1

0.32

2 051 280

656 410

656 410

216.5

142

8

0.18

2 051 280

369 230

2 953 843

216.5

640

5

0.13

2 051 280

266 666

1 333 332

216.5

289

Total for street traders


2 051 280

6 841 019


1 481


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