Softwood lumber
Fiberboards
The 1949 supply-demand situation in softwood lumber can be described as one of "temporary stabilization," but no such generalization can tell the whole story. Trade and consumption have tended to become increasingly regional. For example, only 10 percent of Europe's softwood lumber exports went to non-European markets in 1949, as compared with 17 percent in 1947. Similarly, the quantity of softwood lumber shipped from Canada and the United States to other markets dropped from 74 percent of total exports in 1947 to 47 percent in 1949. Although the Soviet Union showed more activity on the export market in 1949 than in the earlier postwar years, this did not suffice to alter the picture in any marked way.
In Europe, increased supplies were in line with effective demand in a number of countries and suggested an over-all balance. In the United Kingdom and some other importing countries, however, consumption is limited by factors which cannot be regarded as normal. One of the most important importers, Germany, is only now appearing among the list of purchasers. On the other hand, even with the impetus given to production for export by a firm or rising trend in prices, the capacity of the Scandinavian and Eastern European exporting countries is limited. In the long run, therefore, a balance between supplies and desired consumption levels in Europe obviously cannot be achieved without considerable supplies from the Soviet Union and at least marginal shipments from North America and eventually South America. Present imports from dollar sources are facilitated artificially, i.e., with dollar credits or grants. While Russian lumber, although considered to be of very high quality, is by no means irreplaceable, substitutes for some North American dimensions would be difficult to find. Of-the-total amount of dollars for which the Economic Co-operation Administration (ECA) had issued procurement authorizations through November 1949 ($7,600 million), only a little over 1 percent ($108.8 million) was authorized for imports of 1-umber and lumber products. The 1950 program for countries coming under the European Recovery Program (ERP) or Marshall Plan provides for a decrease in imports from the United States and Canada.
The strengthened position of Northern European lumber exporters, on the one hand, and the obvious hesitation of the United Kingdom to meet their price demands, on the other, led to an unusual opening of the 1950 export market in Europe, with relatively slow British purchasing activity. Even after the conclusion of an important contract with the U.S.S.R., a certain gap exists between supplies so far contracted for by the United Kingdom and estimated requirements for the whole of 1950. It may be, however, that the level at which softwood lumber prices in Europe had settled down by the beginning of the second quarter of 1950 would be attractive for Eastern European countries. The export of Brazilian lumber to the United Kingdom is an interesting feature of the 1950 lumber trade.
In Canada and the United States during the last two years there has been a strong domestic demand for softwood lumber, due to increased building activity and a high level of industrial production, which has resulted in relatively satisfactory prices for lumber manufacturers. The United States has proved capable of absorbing an increasing proportion of Canada's export lumber supplies, and the inter-relationships between the markets in the two countries have tended to grow still closer.
The Canadian sawmill industry is dependent on export trade to the extent of 40 to 50 percent of its total output. In prewar times some 25 to 30 percent of these exports went to the United States, and roughly 45 to 55 percent to the United Kingdom. In 1948 and 1949, 63 to 65 percent was absorbed by the United States and only 23 percent by the United Kingdom. But as a too great dependency on any single outlet, which can be easily affected by general business fluctuations, involves obvious risks, the Canadian sawmill industry considers that ways and means must be found for maintaining and, where possible, increasing exports to traditional overseas markets.
The outlook for the rest of 1950 is viewed with optimism in both Canada and the United States, because construction activity promises to maintain present high levels. In view of an increasing demand anticipated for the second and third quarters of the year, there is even some possibility that supplies of lumber in the United States may prove inadequate.
The currency shortage has affected also the timber importing countries of Latin America which have devalued their national currencies. No accurate information is available as to the present supply-demand situation, but there seem to be indications of a slight recession in lumber trade. The major exporter in that region, Brazil, has not devalued its cruzeiro, and has consequently become less competitive on its foreign markets.
In Oceania and the Far East, the development in Australia seems to be marked by a strong demand for lumber. Domestic production and gradually increased imports are expected to satisfy the requirements. New Zealand's plans for utilization of its forest resources provide for a radical increase in softwood lumber output during the coming years, with resulting export availabilities of considerable volume. During the next decade the development in New Zealand may prove to be one of the most interesting events arising out of the modern forest policy of this region. The prospective export surpluses of New Zealand lumber can be of growing importance for countries in that deficit area.
The large potential market for softwoods in Japan shows no sign of opening in 1950.
EUROPE
Consumption
The figures reported to FAO by twenty European countries* indicate a 10 percent rise in lumber consumption as between 1947 and 1948. In 1949, consumption appears to have risen still further. On the basis of preliminary reports, the 1949 consumption figure for all Europe is estimated at about 7.5 million standards. As compared with a prewar average or "normal" figure of roughly 9.7 million standards, the volume still shows an over-all decrease. Last year's consumption levels, however, give a somewhat varying picture of "abnormality" in different countries.
* The principal countries not included in these estimates were Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, the Soviet Zone of Germany, and Spain
Among the principal importing countries, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy experienced increased demand, balanced by ample supply.
In the Netherlands both construction activity and the packing industry absorbed increased quantities of timber. As supplies were adequate, price controls on timber were removed at the beginning of 1950. The Dutch timber merchants started a propaganda campaign to regain those fields in which substitute materials had been used during the period of shortages.
In Belgium the development in 1949 was somewhat similar to that in the Netherlands. Building activity exceeded the 1948 levels by more than 50 percent, and the level of industrial production was satisfactory. Nevertheless, consumption of sawn softwood apparently dropped below the 1948 volume. This has been attributed chiefly to increased use of substitutes in construction and to rationalization in the use of timber as building material, rather than to shortages in supplies.
Construction activity in Italy also gained momentum during 1949, particularly toward the end of the year, and demand for timber consequently rose. Adequate supplies gave a feeling of a transition to a more or less normal situation.
In the United Kingdom, softwood lumber consumption showed a tendency to stagnate at an "abnormal" level. Building activity, which is controlled by the Government, did not reach the 1948 level; but demand for timber for construction purposes as well as for packing uses continued strong. The softwood lumber market was stable, with some slight characteristics of a buyer's market, but the level of activities was low compared with prewar. U.K. consumption of softwood lumber in 1946 was about 1,100,000 standards, in 1947 about 1,000,000, in 1948 roughly 1,200,000. The 1949 figure was about the same as the 1948. This is considerably below the "austerity minimum" estimate for 1949 of some 1.5 million standards, made at-the beginning of 1949 by a survey committee (Keith Price Committee) appointed to consider the probable requirements and supplies of timber and plywood for 1949-53. The country's prewar consumption of softwood (excluding sleepers and crossings) has been put at an average of some 2.4 million standards annually. According to the Economic Survey for 1950, issued by the Government, the level of housing construction will be restored from the figure of approximately 180,000 units to 200,000, which is estimated to require an additional supply of some 30,000 standards of softwood lumber.
In France, the rate of new building is reported to have quickened somewhat in 1949. In spite of this fact, and the feet that industrial production showed definite recovery, timber consumption in this country also seemed to have stagnated at a comparatively low: level. In 1947 and 1948 annual consumption of sawn softwoods was about 780,000 standards. The low level of consumption was accompanied by increased use of substitute materials, and this situation is expected to continue..
In Switzerland, demand for timber showed a declining trend, particularly during the last months of 1949. This caused some alarm and it was noted that here, too, the low level of consumption was due to the use of substitutes in construction and for industrial purposes. Supplies were plentiful in relation to demand.
Austria's building activity is reported to have increased slightly in 1949. Demand for timber was steady, but the rising trend in prices curbed consumption However, softwood lumber consumption in the: whole country increased somewhat.
In the northern exporting countries, trends in domestic timber consumption during 1949 varied. In Sweden, increased building activity (4 percent above the 1948 level) and rising needs of the packing industry indicated that timber consumption was higher than during the previous year. In Finland, also, construction activity rose slightly (18 percent on the basis of total number of rooms), and presumably timber consumption increased somewhat. It is estimated that Norway's building industry absorbed about 325,000 standards in 1949. This represents an increase over the 1947 and 1948 figures of 282,000 and 288,000 standards respectively.
On the whole, while consumption in the United Kingdom and France was at a relatively low level a number of Western and Central European countries it was felt that timber consumption could and should increased by limiting the use of substitute materials.
At the beginning of 1950 there was a slightly rising tendency in timber consumption in both importing countries.
Production
As a result of a favorable felling season in almost ail producing countries during 1948/49, stabilized demand, and firm prices, European production of sawn softwood increased by roughly 600,000 standards or 9 percent in 1949, and reached approximately 7.5 million standards (see Table 1).
In all three Scandinavian countries, output of sawn softwood showed increases. These were attributable, in addition to the several reasons mentioned above, partly to a strong export drive and partly to diversion to sawmills of small dimension logs usually absorbed by the pulp industry.
In Central Europe, the proportionately greatest increase in production occurred in Austria, where softwood lumber production rose by 74 percent. Sawmilling activity was stepped up in France, Germany, and Switzerland, partly as a result of salvage operations necessitated by the Landes fires and bark beetle attacks in France and by insect attacks and drought in Germany and Switzerland.
In Sweden and Finland, to judge from reports so far available sawlog fellings are expected to increase in 1949/50, while fellings of fuelwood and small size roundwood may decrease. Fellings in Norway may fall short of needs; sawn softwood imports may increase, therefore, during 1950.
In April 1950, in his opening statement to the sixth meeting of the ECE Timber Committee, the ECE Executive Secretary pointed out that information available did not permit a forecast of greatly increased production in 1950 in the European countries which are now supplying the market. On the contrary, a slight reduction from 1949 levels has been foreshadowed for the continent.
Exports
The trend in exports of sawn softwood during the last three years (1.4 million standards in 1947, 1.6 million in 1948, and 2.0 million in 1949) has been satisfactory and has lived up to the hopes formulated at the Marianske-Lazné Conference in 1947.
In 1948, Sweden and Finland exported an aggregate of over 1 million standards. In 1949 their joint exports were 1.26 million standards, or about 60 percent of all European exports. In both countries, and also in Norway, unstable pulp markets during the first half of 1949 stimulated an export drive on the timber market.
Table 1. - Production and trade in softwood lumber, 1948 and 1949
|
Country |
Production |
Imports |
Exports |
|||||
|
1948 |
† 1949 |
1948 |
† 1949 |
1948 |
† 1949 |
|||
|
|
(Thousand standards) |
|||||||
|
EUROPE |
‡ 6,070 |
‡ 6,670 |
‡ 1,770 |
‡ 2,150 |
‡ 1,610 |
‡ 2,040 |
||
|
Importing countries |
‡ 2,540 |
‡ 2,880 |
‡ 1,730 |
‡ 2,120 |
‡ 200 |
‡ 200 |
||
|
|
Belgium |
58 |
34 |
104 |
93 |
2 |
... |
|
|
|
Denmark |
62 |
75 |
144 |
153 |
- |
... |
|
|
|
France |
1 642 |
1 663 |
150 |
94 |
58 |
63 |
|
|
|
Germany: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bizone |
1,023 |
1,341 |
9 |
82 |
76 |
72 |
|
|
|
French Zone |
249 |
2 240 |
... |
|
73 |
... |
|
|
Greece |
7 |
9 |
3 38 |
3 48 |
- |
... |
|
|
|
Ireland |
6 |
6 |
30 |
58 |
- |
... |
|
|
|
Italy |
153 |
170 |
72 |
157 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Luxembourg |
3 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Netherlands |
3 |
3 |
278 |
325 |
- |
... |
|
|
|
Switzerland |
268 |
268 |
17 |
9 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
United Kingdom |
4 65 |
4 65 |
883 |
1,095 |
3 |
... |
|
|
Exporting countries |
‡ 3,530 |
‡ 3,790 |
‡ 40 |
‡ 30 |
‡ 1,390 |
‡ 1,840 |
||
|
|
Austria |
269 |
468 |
3 |
7 |
104 |
262 |
|
|
|
Czechoslovakia |
2,3,5 518 |
2,3,5 496 |
... |
... |
6 68 |
6 24 |
|
|
|
Finland |
810 |
850 |
... |
... |
488 |
605 |
|
|
|
Norway |
3 310 |
3 330 |
16 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
|
Poland |
561 |
... |
... |
... |
37 |
85 |
|
|
|
Portugal |
128 |
128 |
2 |
2 |
24 |
15 |
|
|
|
Romania |
... |
... |
... |
... |
4 |
6 26 |
|
|
|
Sweden |
928 |
950 |
18 |
15 |
556 |
656 |
|
|
|
Yugoslavia |
... |
... |
... |
... |
2 101 |
154 |
|
|
U.S.S.R. |
... |
... |
... |
... |
6 55 |
6 131 |
||
|
NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Brazil |
376.. |
... |
1 |
... |
202 |
... |
|
|
|
Canada |
2,980 |
2,917 |
11 |
18 |
1,170 |
1,066 |
|
|
|
United States |
14,300 |
13,200 |
7 841 |
7 728 |
8 240 |
8 257 |
|
|
OTHER COUNTRIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Australia |
101 |
... |
79 |
... |
- |
... |
|
|
|
Japan |
1,768 |
... |
- |
... |
1 |
... |
|
|
|
New Zealand |
227 |
... |
4 |
... |
11 |
... |
|
† Preliminary
‡ Comparable totals for listed countries only.
.. Data not available.
- Nil or negligible.
1 Does not include lumber produced from imported German sawlogs.
2 January-September only.
3 Includes hardwoods.
4 Does not include sawn pitwood or lumber produced from imported sawlogs.
5 Includes sleepers.
6 Estimated from reports of importing countries.
7 Does not include imports of shingles.
8 Does not include exports to possessions and territories.
In Central Europe, the most salient features were the slight reduction in exports from Western Germany and the 150-percent increase in Austrian exports.
While 1949 exports from Czechoslovakia dropped, those from Poland and Yugoslavia rose. One of the most important features in lumber trade was the doubling of U.S.S.R. exports over the 1948 figure; the volume of Russian export lumber received by importing countries, however, did not reach 10 percent of the corresponding 1937 figure (1.4 million standards).
Many contracts for shipments in 1950 from the Scandinavian countries were concluded very early. Together with a firm trend in prices, this is expected to stimulate increased export activity in these countries. At the April 1950 session of the ECE Timber Committee, Sweden announced that its maximum export prospects for 1950 would be about 625,000 standards.
By the third week of April 1950, Sweden was reported to have sold some 470,000 standards to markets other than the United Kingdom, an agreement on prices with the latter not having been reached. It was regarded as evident that the full quantity of 250,000 standards provided for in the trade agreement with the United Kingdom could not be secured from deliveries during the remaining part of the year. To date, only 23,500 standards of Swedish lumber have been sold to the United Kingdom, and contracts for a few additional thousands of standards have been made.
Finland cautiously indicated to the ECE Timber Committee 600,000 standards as its maximum export availability for the current year. At the beginning of February 1950, its contracts with the Netherlands, Belgium, Western Germany, Denmark, France, Ireland, and Egypt were three times larger than those of the corresponding period a year earlier. The agreement with the United Kingdom provides for delivery of 225,000 standards. As a result of the favorable start in shipments and the firm prices, it was believed that the 1949 total export volume of 605,000 standards might be surpassed.
Softwood lumber exports from Austria in 1950 are expected to be at or slightly above the 1949 volume. German exports are scheduled to drop to a comparatively low level in 1950 and to disappear by 1951. By the end of 1950, France will probably have disposed of the main part of its exportable sawn softwood made available by the Landes forest fire and the insect attacks.
Under an agreement with the United Kingdom, Yugoslavia is to ship 150,000 standards of sawn wood annually to Great Britain during 1950-54. It is reported that, by mid-May, the British Timber Control had contracted for 130,000 standards. Aggregate sawn softwood exports from Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, and Poland in both 1950 and 1951 have been estimated by the ECE Timber Committee at somewhere between 175,000 and 275,000 standards.
In June 1950, the British Timber Control made with the Timber Export Administration of the U. S. S. R. a contract which, according to preliminary information, provides for shipment of 153,000 standards of lumber during the current year to the United Kingdom from ports on the Arctic Ocean and the White Sea, from Leningrad, and from some Baltic and East German ports.
Total European export availabilities were estimated by the ECE Timber Committee at 1.9 to 2.3 million standards in 1950 and 1.8 to 2.2 million in 1951. In 1949, slightly more than 100,000 standards were shipped overseas.
Imports
Sawn softwood imports of European countries from European sources reached a total of 1.9 million standards in 1949, as compared with 1.4 million standards in 1948. Imports from overseas dropped from 360,000 standards in 1948 to about 280,000 standards in 1949.
The United Kingdom's imports totaled 1,095,000 standards. While greater than the 883,000 standards imported during 1948, this quantity was considered in trade circles quite inadequate, the figure being about one-half of 1937 imports. It should be noted that the increase in lumber imports was offset by a 590,000 m³ decrease in sawlog imports (mainly from Germany), or enough logs to manufacture about 70,000 standards of lumber. British purchases from Finland, Sweden, Yugoslavia, Poland, Romania, and particularly the U.S.S.R., had increased considerably over 1948, whereas imports from Canada dropped from 264,000 standards in 1948 to 218,000 in 1949. Imports from the United States were negligible (29,000 standards), while, imports from Germany totaled 89,000 standards.
Many other traditional importers of softwood lumber, particularly the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, and Italy increased their imports during 1949. But Belgium, France and Switzerland reduced theirs. It appears that Western Germany's imports reached a total of 82,000 standards (10,000 in 1948), made up of over 55,000 standards from Sweden, over 22,000 from Finland, and the rest from the United States.
It is believed that Germany will soon become a strong competitor to other buyers of Scandinavian lumber. In 1950, Western Germany, like Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium, entered the market for Swedish and Finnish lumber contracts at a very early stage This "buying wave" has been attributed, among other factors, to general improvement in the economic c conditions of the buying countries and, in some cases, to the abolition of government controls.
In the absence of U.S.S.R. export competition,: and as a result of the devaluation of currencies and reduction of dollar imports, the dependence of European importers on Scandinavia for wood supplies seemed to become more pronounced during the first months of 1950. Traditionally the world's largest wood importer, the United Kingdom was, however, planning to implement its "austerity" import plan of 1.05 million standards by increasing imports from Yugoslavia, the U.S.S.R., and Brazil and maintaining purchases, from dollar sources: at the previous year's level, even if shipments from the Scandinavian countries, particularly Sweden, were be curtailed. By the end of the first quarter of U.K. imports of sawn softwood had amounted to only 93,600 standards. This was 49,000 standards less than the first-quarter imports in 1949, and 87,000 standards less than those for the corresponding period in 1948. First-quarter shipments' from Canada dropped from 25,800 standards in 1949 to 5,000 in 1950, those from Germany from 37,000 to 3,600; and those from the United States from 5,000 to less than 500 standards, shipments were forthcoming from Romania in the first three months of 1950, as against 5,500 standards the corresponding period of 1949. It was later reported that, for 1950, the United Kingdom had contracted for 40,000 standards from Brazil and for some 155,000 standards from Canada and the United States, and 60,000 standards from France. To these quantities, the contracts for shipments under agreements made with Finland, Sweden, and Yugoslavia, totaling some 270,000 standards, had to be added. As a result of the contract made with the U.S.S.R., the supply situation of the United Kingdom was considerably improved.
Total European import requirements are expected to be at approximately the 1949 level of effective imports.
Prices
On the export market, softwood lumber prices which had been more or less stable since the beginning of the second quarter of 1949, began to show an upward trend toward the end of the year. In the northern exporting countries, demand for higher export prices for lumber was motivated by the general rise in production costs caused by devaluation, the decrease in prices for pulpwood, and a decline in demand for sawmill waste. Sawmills in Scandinavia depend to some extent on the capacity of pulpmills to absorb and pay for sawmilling waste. The importance of this inter-relationship becomes evident if one considers that one month's stagnation in the Finnish sulphate mills would mean a reduced absorption of wood corresponding to the volume of waste arising from the manufacture of nearly 100,000 standards of sawn timber. In Sweden the basis of calculation is that about one-half of the timber used by sawmills is turned into waste. (More precisely, about 310 cubic feet of timber are required for producing 165 cubic feet or one standard of sawn lumber.)
On the other hand, brisk demand for lumber was stimulated by the lifting of regulations affecting private trade in a number of countries, such as the Netherlands, Denmark, and (from 1; April 1950) Ireland. In these and some other countries - for example, Belgium and Western Germany - importers were anxious to secure quantities of picked selections of first-class specifications at an early stage and were willing to meet Scandinavian price requirements
As a result, prices for good qualities and favored dimensions of Scandinavian lumber went up. Opening prices in 1950 for 7" red u/s battens in Belgium were £46 10s. to £50, f.o.b., per standard (in 1949, £46 to £47 10s.), and those for 7" red u/s boards were £62 to £65 (in 1949, £57 to £60). Prices of 7" red fifths battens, on the other hand, remained at about the same level as a year before, and those for 7" red: fifths boards dropped slightly. Dutch importers, competing with Belgian buyers, paid from £2 to £3 more per standard than a year earlier for good Finnish qualities. Denmark has included timber and lumber (with the exception of planed and dressed boards) in its list of commodities on which imports from ERP countries were "liberalized" as of 10 March 1950. It is applying this list also as regards importations from Finland, which is not a member of the ERP group. Consequently, prices for Swedish and Finnish timber in Denmark will no longer be fixed by agreements covering the whole year.
In February 1950 the British Timber Control came to an agreement with Finnish exporters on prices for the lower-quality groups IV, V, and VI, which are supposed to represent more than half of Finnish lumber exports to the United Kingdom. Prices for the higher groups were subject to further negotiations. The Finnish prices for 1950, thus fixed, showed the following increases over 1949 prices:
7" red battens f.o.b. prices
|
U/S |
1949 |
1950 |
Increase | |
|
|
Group IV |
£40.0.0 |
£44.0.0 |
£4.0.0 |
|
|
Group V |
£39.5.0 |
£43.5.0 |
£4.0.0 |
|
|
Group VI |
£38.15.0 |
£42.15.0 |
£4.0.0 |
|
Fifths |
|
|
| |
|
|
Group IV |
£36.15.0 |
£39.10 0 |
£2.15.0 |
|
|
Group V |
£36.5.0 |
£39.0.0 |
£2.15.0 |
|
|
Group VI |
£36.0.0 |
£38.15.0 |
£2.15.0 |
It is reported that from 15,000 to 20,000 standards of Finnish lumber belonging to the upper groups have been contracted to the United Kingdom at basic prices of £45 10s. for 7" u/s redwood battens and £40 10s. for 7" redwood fifths in group II, and 10s. less for group III, all net f.o.b. These prices show an increase of £4 10s. for u/s redwood battens and £3 5s. for redwood fifths.
By early April, Swedish exporters were reported to have sold to markets outside the United Kingdom at prices corresponding to a basis of £51 or more for 7" u/s redwood battens net f.o.b. The tension between export prices and domestic prices having become too intensive, control of timber prices on the Swedish home market was abolished on 13 March.
Not until late April did the British Timber Control reach an agreement with an individual Swedish exporter on prices for a shipment of 23,500 standards. These prices, quoted c.i.f., showed an increase of £5 for u/s 7" red battens and £3 for 7" white battens, and of £4 to £5 more for red fifths. The contract was expected to be followed by further purchases of Swedish lumber, but by mid-May only very insignificant contracts had been made.
Yugoslavian prices for shipments to the United Kingdom in 1950 were reported to exceed the 1949 c.i.f. prices by £4 to £5 per standard.
The price basis for Brazilian Paraná pine contracted for by the United Kingdom is reported to be £53, f.o.b.
Although prices for lumber to be shipped to the United Kingdom, under the arrangement made with the U.S.S.R. in June 1950, are quoted pertly on f.o.b. and partly on c.i.f. basis, and although the quality of Russian lumber and that of Northern European lumber are not entirely comparable, it is reported that, upon the whole, the U.S.S.R. prices show a strengthening trend somewhat similar to that of Scandinavian prices.
NORTH AMERICA
CANADA
Consumption
Consumption of lumber in 1949 was affected by unprecedented activity throughout the construction field. From preliminary figures, the total value of building and construction contracts awarded is reported to have reached Can $1,400 million as compared with $954 million for 1948.
The domestic demand for lumber in 1950 is expected to equal or even slightly exceed that of 1949. It is expected that financial assistance provided by the federal government will result in the construction of more housing units than in 1949 and that a similar upward trend can be foreseen for other categories of construction also.
Production
Production of softwood lumber in 1949 amounted roughly to 2.92 million standards declining by about 2 percent from the 1948 output of 2.98 million standards. Softwood production in British Columbia fell 4.2 percent from 1948 levels, and production of both softwoods and hardwoods in the other provinces (except Newfoundland) fell 6.8 percent.
The West Coast of North America suffered from unfavorable weather in January 1950, but production of softwood lumber in British Columbia recovered in February, and the first two months total was only 4 percent lower in 1950 than in 1949. In the other provinces, except Newfoundland, total production for the first two months was 9 percent lower than in the preceding year. In all Canada, production during this period was 6 percent lower than in the corresponding period in 1949.
Trade
In 1949 softwood lumber exports, excluding shingles, amounted to approximately 1.07 million standards, or about 37 percent of total softwood production. The United States was the most important market, taking close to 670,000 standards, or 63 percent of the total; the United Kingdom took approximately 236,000 standards, or 22 percent of the total.
In the first quarter of 1950 Canada's softwood lumber exports, excluding shingles, rose to 288,000 standards, a 41-percent increase over the corresponding figure for 1949. Exports to the United States continued to increase, while shipments to the United Kingdom continued to decline.
The decline in all Canadian exports to the traditional United Kingdom market is viewed with some concern. Over 80 percent of these exports were financed from ECA funds during the last nine months of 1948, and nearly 50 percent in 1949. The scheduled tapering-off of dollar grants to ERP countries may thus have far-reaching consequences for Canada unless exports to the United States can be increased. As regards softwood lumber, an eventual decline in the United States demand for lumber could easily affect large segments of the Canadian sawmill industry. General plans are under elaboration by the Canadian Government to shift several hundred million dollars' worth of imports from the United States to European countries, primarily the United Kingdom. If these are carried out, they might lessen the repercussions of the termination of the European Recovery Program (by 1952) upon the sawmill industry of Canada.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Consumption
Exceptionally favorable weather conditions permitted continuation throughout 1949 of the strong construction activity which had started during August and September. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, housing activity throughout the country was record-breaking during the fourth quarter of the year, resulting in a total of 1,019,000 new non-farm dwelling units started during 1949. When farm houses, prefabricated houses, trailers, and reconversions are added, the estimated total number of new dwelling units for 1949 will exceed 1,300,000, the greatest number on record for any single year. In terms of dollars, also, last year's construction activity was unprecedentedly high; the value of investments in new construction totaled $19.3 thousand million, private construction accounting for roughly $14 thousand million of this amount and public construction for the remainder.
The strong demand for lumber during the last part of 1949 brought total lumber consumption for the year to a relatively high level. Consumption of soft-wood lumber in 1949 is estimated at 14.0 million standards, which is very close to the 1947 figure and only 3 percent less than the 1948 figure of 14.4 million standards.
This demand continued also during the first months of the current year. In terms of dollar value, new construction during the first quarter of 1950 was 18 percent greater than during the corresponding 1949 period, and reached a new record for the quarter. Softwood consumption for the first three months of 1950 was estimated at 3.45 million standards, and the second-quarter's consumption was expected to reach 4.1 million standards.
Production
Softwood lumber production in 1949 amounted to approximately 13.2 million standards, about 8 percent less than the 1948 production of 14.3 million standards.
Severe weather conditions prevailed in many important softwood lumbering regions at the beginning of the year. But production rose considerably in the spring, and reached for the first quarter of 1950 an estimated quantity of 3.0 million standards, 6.4 percent over the figure for the corresponding volume in 1949. Second-quarter production in mills reporting to the National Lumber Manufacturers' Association was also above the 1949 levels as of early May.
However, neither favorable production nor heavy drain on mill stocks, which continued through-the last quarter of 1949 and the first quarter of 1950, could keep pace with the increased demand. By the beginning of May, industry circles felt that signs of an impending shortage of lumber were already apparent. It was generally expected that during the summer demand would exceed supply.
Prices
As a result of the heavy demand, average composite prices of construction lumber steadily increased from August 1949 through January 1950. The development of softwood lumber prices is illustrated in Table 2.
Table 2. - Softwood lumber price indices (1939 = 100)
|
Period |
Southern pine |
Douglas fir |
Western pine |
|
1948 - total year |
345.0 |
375.8 |
338.0 |
|
1949 - total year |
305.5 |
341.8 |
329.1 |
|
1948 - 4th quarter |
332.2 |
381.0 |
346.8 |
|
1949 - 3rd quarter |
297.4 |
332.1 |
321.9 |
|
1949 - 4th quarter |
311.0 |
328.0 |
319.6 |
|
1949 - January |
320.3 |
359.8 |
340.7 |
|
1950 - January |
314.6 |
330.9 |
323.8 |
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce.
The upward trend in lumber prices continued through February and March 1950, with some items in short supply reaching a level entirely out of balance with the rest of the market. The setback in production on the West Coast was accompanied by unforeseen sustained demands. By the last week of March, average prices for Douglas fir were $53 and $55 per thousand board feet, or $10 higher than a year earlier. The rise in average prices of all construction lumber amounted to 4.4 percent during the first quarter of the year. Prices are not expected to level off until more air-dried stock becomes available later in the year.
As a result of the very active market at the turn of the year, the influence of Canadian price competition was not felt strongly. However, according to the West Coast Lumbermen's Association, lower wages, lower transportation costs, and the "profit margin" created by devaluation give British Columbia mills, competing with mills in Washington and Oregon, definite advantages which may add up to as much as $11.60 per thousand board feet. The import tariff in the United States is $1 per thousand board feet.
Exports
Softwood lumber exports, which declined during the first six months of 1949 as compared with the previous year, gained during the last half of the year. The volume of softwood lumber exports for the total year thus reached 257,000 standards as compared with 240,000 standards in 1948. Exports to the United Kingdom dropped 37 percent from the 1948 level and reached a total of only 29,000 standards. Shipments to the rest of the countries in the European Recovery Program group, however, increased slightly. Exports to areas outside the Western Hemisphere included considerable quantities for the Union of South Africa, Australia, and Korea.
During the first quarter of 1950, exports of softwood lumber dropped 36 percent below the corresponding figure in 1949, totaling only 38,000 standards.
Imports
Softwood lumber imports increased considerably during the last quarter of the year as compared with the three earlier quarters, the imports of Douglas fir and hemlock rising by 19 percent. Imports for the whole of 1949 totaled about 728,000 standards, which represents a decline of 13 percent from the 1948 figure of approximately 840,000 standards.
The strong demand prevailing during the first months of 1950 was rejected also in imports. Thus imports of softwood lumber for the first quarter of the year were 273,000 standards, an exceptionally high figure which was 35 percent above the imports during the corresponding months of 1948.
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil's lumber production from Paraná pine has for some time been limited to a level corresponding to some 30 percent of total sawmill capacity; thus in 1947-48, the authorized output of the more than 2,900 sawmills, with an aggregate capacity of 1,120,000 standards, was only 348,000 standards. According to theoretical estimates, domestic consumption could reach approximately 330,000 standards per year; in 1947 and 1948 it was about 220,000 and 180,000 standards respectively.
In the first half of 1949, the National Pine Institute limited Paraná pine production to 40 percent of capacity and continued the restriction prohibiting the erection of new sawmills in the pine areas. Some 80 percent of the output of third- and fourth-grade lumber and 20 percent of the first- and second-grade lumber is generally absorbed by the home market, the remainder being exported.
Exports of Brazilian softwood lumber totaled 202,000-standards in 1948. Traditionally, Argentina is by far the largest customer, with Uruguay taking much smaller quantities. In the first half of 1949, exports were reported to have declined to about half of those for the corresponding period of 1948, possibly as a result of Argentina's barter trade with Yugoslavia and Romania, which began in 1948. However, it is expected in trade circles that recent trade agreements with Argentina and Uruguay will improve the situation. As is mentioned elsewhere in this report, a sizable quantity of Brazilian lumber has been contracted by the United Kingdom in 1950 on a barter basis.
It is believed that the Brazilian pine region could increase export production to many times its present volume without depleting the forest resources.
Only minor quantities of softwood lumber are received in Central and South America from countries other than the United States, Canada, and Brazil. The position of softwood lumber importing countries was affected in 1949 by the currency situation which resulted in heavy curtailments of dollar imports. U.S. shipments of softwood lumber to Argentina declined from 13,000 standards in 1948 to 400 standards in 1949. Its exports to other Latin-American countries also declined, with the exception of shipments to Mexico and the relatively negligible shipments to Chile and Haiti, which showed a very slight increase.
Swedish exports of sawn and planed softwood to Central and South America increased from 1,500 standards in 1948 to 2,300 standards in 1949.
AFRICA
Preliminary unofficial figures on imports of sawn and planed softwoods into the Union of South Africa show a decline from 128,000 standards in 1948 to 88,000 standards in 1949. Imports from the United States declined slightly, reaching a total of 29,000 standards as compared with 34,000 in 1948. Shipments from Canada dropped to 36,000 standards as compared with 47,000 in 1948, and those from Sweden declined to 12,000 as against 32,000 in the previous year. The Union of South Africa also received 3,000 standards of softwood from Brazil in 1948.
Total shipments of both North American and Scandinavian softwood lumber to other African markets showed a slight increase. Swedish shipments to Egypt and the Sudan, for example, were close to 17,000 standards as compared with approximately 15,000 in 1948.
FAR EAST AND OCEANIA
Japan, at one time the largest single buyer of American lumber, is estimated to need considerable quantities of imported lumber in addition to supplies made available by domestic production. However, means of financing large-scale lumber imports do not yet appear to be in sight.
Hong Kong imported in 1949 a total quantity of 50,000 standards of Douglas fir, China fir, and China pine lumber, and re-exported 1,600 standards.
Demand for timber in Australia has been quite high during the last few years, owing to lack of building during the war. Apparent consumption of softwood lumber has risen from 173,000 standards in 1947 to 180,000 in 1948 and 222,000 standards in 1949. Consumption is expected to increase slightly in 1950 and to reach in 1951 a total quantity of 242,000 standards.
To what extent the domestic sawmilling industry, and particularly the existing Australian forest resources, will be able to meet the future requirements of the rapidly increasing population of Australia' is an unanswered question. Production of softwood lumber has shown a steady but relatively slow rising trend. From 99,000 standards in 1947 and 101,000 in 1948, it increased to 103,600 standards in 1949. Domestic production provided about 57 percent of total consumption in 1947 and about 47 percent in 1949. It is expected that production will rise slightly in 1950 (to about 104,100 standards) and again in 1951 (to about 105,500 standards). The steadily increasing gap between requirements and production has been met by imports, traditionally from North America, New Zealand, British Borneo, and the Scandinavian countries. In spite of a tariff preference, imports from Canada in 1948 fell below those from the United States, owing to more favorable f.o.b. prices quoted by the United States. A change in the Australian tariff schedule is reported, which imposes a 12.5 percent ad valorem duty on lumber imported from the United States but still leaves lumber imported from Canada duty free. This will undoubtedly affect the source of imports. According to U. S. statistics, exports of softwood lumber from the United States to Australia increased further in 1949, reaching 25,000 standards. Shipments from Sweden amounted to 25,000 standards.
In New Zealand the consumption of timber has reached a trig level and is expected to increase, particularly if immigration continues. During the year ending 31 March 1949, apparent consumption of all lumber amounted to 239,000 standards, of which about 234,000 standards (98 percent) were softwood lumber. The New Zealand Director of Forestry estimates that, at the present rate, the annual domestic demand for sawn timber may be as high as 300,000 standards within the next fifteen years. During the years 1944-48 the number of sawmills in operation increased by 50 percent to a total of close to 700. In the year ending 31 March 1949, total lumber output reached an all-time record of 241,000 standards, of which 85,000 standards were exotic coniferous species. Indigenous species - mainly broadleaved, but including also some heavily exploited coniferous species - have supplied almost 70 percent of all sawn timber consumed within the country. It is strongly felt that the annual cut of those species must be drastically reduced and that, consequently, mills will be forced either to close down or to obtain supplies of exotic woods. It is believed that the exotics could by 1960 yield some 328,000 standards of lumber, of which about 250,000 standards would' tee absorbed by home consumption.
Exports of softwood sawn timber from New Zealand are becoming an important feature of trade in Oceania. From only 4,700 standards in 1947, the volume of softwood exports rose in 1948 to 10,900 standards. In 1949, exports of New Zealand exotic softwoods amounted to 11,100 standards, and they are expected to increase somewhat over this figure in 1950. For the years 1951-54 an increase to 35,000 standards is scheduled, and, when the National Integrated Unit comes into operation, by 1954 or 1955, a maximum of 70,000 standards should be available for export. By that time, shipments to other markets than Australia, which now purchases the bulk of New Zealand's surplus of sawn softwoods, could reach a considerable quantity.
Since the publication of a previous report on fiberboards in UNASYLVA, 1 remarkable progress in fiberboard manufacture had been made, both in the scientific field and in the practical application of the results of basic research.
1 Vol. II, No. 4 (July-August 1948). It is considered necessary to repeat here the following footnote to the previous report:"Fiberboard, as discussed in this report, refers to boards sheets, or rolls, used mainly in building, of which the chief raw material is wood. Raw materials may be in the form of pulpwood, wood pulp, waste paper, sawmill waste, screenings, etc. Gypsum board and plaster boards are excluded.
"Hardboard (Wallboard) is a general term applied to fiberboard (hard and semihard) from 3 to 7 mm. (1/8 to 1/4 inch) in thickness, used primarily in partitions, side walls and other construction work.
"Insulating board refers to insulating ma-serial in sheets or oils usually from 8 to 20 mm. (5/16 to 3/4 inch) in thickness with porous structure and good thermal and acoustic insulating properties. The fibers are sized and felted together to contain a large quantity of trapped or 'dead' air.
"The statistics of some countries do not distinguish between fiberboards in which the chief raw material is wood and fiberboards where the chief raw material may be bagasse, straw, gypsum, etc., and thus not all figures are directly comparable."
Anatomical research, using new ways of coloring the various lamella the cell walls differentially with metachromatic dyes, has given a clearer understanding of the influence that the morphology of the fibers and their treatment during the fiberizing process have on the ultimate properties of the felted mats and the dried and pressed boards. It indicates that these properties are not governed only by the fiber length, which has long been regarded as the decisive factor, but chiefly by the pliability of the fibers, which depends largely upon the relation between cell-wall thickness and diameter of the lumen. This conception has furthered the utilization of hardwoods.
So also has the increased understanding of the role that different chemical constituents of the cell wall play as binding agents. Although it is not yet entirely clear how far this binding action stems from the repolymerization of lignin (depolymerized first by light cooking, which lowers its melting point) and how far from the polysaccarides (chiefly hemicelluloses, uronic acids, and some extractive substances), considerable progress has been made in the technical utilization of these self-binding actions.
The properties of the chemical adhesives - especially artificial resins on a base of urea-, phenol-, or melamin-formaldehyde condensates, and bituminous products derived from petroleum - have also been improved through new methods of condensation, and methods have been evolved for dispersing these adhesives more finely through the woody fibers, chips, or granules that form the main part of the board.
This last-mentioned technique has brought about an important development in the so-called "dry pressing process," which overcomes some serious disadvantages of the old felt-forming process out of a very diluted slurry. The dry pressing process significantly reduces the necessary investment and the working costs, especially because of the savings which it effects in pressing time and in the caloric energy required for evaporating the water included, and because of the fact that wire nets do not have to be used. Moreover, the boards produced in this way have two smooth surfaces; their field of utilization has thus been widely extended and, as a consequence, their commercial value has considerably increased.
As significant progress in transportation and handling has also been achieved, economic production is now possible in small factories. The old wet processes required rather large production units for economic results.
Greater utilization of forest wastes has been made possible by the use of transportable machines which can be operated in the forests themselves. Some of these machines chip the branches, twigs, and tops and load them pneumatically into trucks; others divide the small, fresh lots roughly into fiber bundles by the action of rapidly rotating cylinders with very sharp, strong, and flexible needles. Similar methods for utilizing industrial wastes have been developed which lend themselves especially well to the fabrication of cores for blockboards, furniture, and other relatively thick parts.
A wide range of fiber and wood particle board products has been developed. At one extreme are the ultra-light boards with high thermal insulation properties, which are now produced by ingenious foam-building processes. These foam-building processes use finely dispersed air or the coagulation of dissolved lignin by means of carbon dioxide from flue gases blown through the liquid in fine dispersion. The other end is marked by super-hard boards which are, for instance, used as dies for the form-pressing of sheet metals.
Investigations on both these products were initiated by the FAO Committee on Mechanical Wood Technology at its third meeting in connection with the first Conference on Mechanical Wood Technology in Geneva in September 1949. The methods for testing fiberboards proposed here by the U.S. delegate - methods which had already been accepted almost in their entirety by some national wood research societies - were unanimously accepted as the basis of discussion and further development. In order to speed up the investigations, a special working group was appointed, consisting of the delegates from the countries in which the principal work on these tests is being done, namely, Canada, the United Kingdom, France. Sweden, and the United States. This unification will have a very important effect in developing the application of these products.
The present theoretical capacity of the world's fiberboard industry can be estimated at approximately 2,500,000 tons annually. However, for different reasons in different countries, operations are not at full capacity levels. But even under these circumstances, there have been indications of a partial saturation of the markets. This situation is attributable to a temporary slowing-down of demand for insulating boards in many parts of the world and to relative tardiness in the opening-up of new outlets. The demand for hardboards, on the other hand, has shown a strengthening trend. This has given impetus not only to a considerable increase in production of these types, but also to a preponderance of hardboard production in the planning of new factory capacity. The present ratio of hardboard capacity to softboard capacity is approximately 9 to 10. With the expansion plans that have so far been reported it seems likely that the world's hardboard and softboard capacities will about equal each other within two or three years. By that time, total world capacity could, when wholly used, produce close to 3,200,000 tons of fiberboards.
During the past three years the per caput consumption of fiberboards appears to have declined in certain countries which have previously absorbed proportionally high amounts of this material for construction and other purposes. On the other hand, vast regions with relatively dense populations are still using only marginal quantities of fiberboards. These facts suggest that the future of the fiberboard industry, in general, is largely dependent upon the extent to which the undersupplied or completely unsupplied markets can be opened up to this product.
CONSUMPTION
The rate of fiberboard consumption varies widely from country to country. In some parts of the world, the product has a well-established place in construction, and a relatively high rate of per caput consumption is maintained. But there are still vast areas, particularly in the tropical and subtropical zones, where the use of fiberboards is looked upon with prejudice. Experience shows, however, that once fiberboards (sometimes treated in special ways) are successfully introduced on new markets, the demand for them might rapidly rise. On the other hand, new uses of fiberboards are continuously gaining ground as, for instance, the substitution of hardboard for plywood, which has affected both fiberboard production and trade during recent years.
On the basis of the information available, the following data for selected countries can be given as illustrating the present per caput consumption of fiberboards:
|
Country |
Per caput consumption |
|
|
(Kilograms) |
|
Sweden |
19.0 |
|
Norway |
12.0 |
|
United States |
5.0 |
|
Finland |
4.0 |
|
Australia (1948) |
3.0 |
|
United Kingdom |
1.5 |
|
Union of South Africa (1948) |
1.0 |
|
Argentina (1948) |
0.6 |
|
Japan (1948) |
0.2 |
|
India (1948-49) |
0.03 |
The per caput rate of consumption varies from year to year, not only in those countries which lacking domestic production, are completely or mainly dependent on imports and thus affected by factors influencing general trade, but also in the countries that are large producers with more or less stable home markets. For instance, Swedish domestic consumption, estimated in 1946 at 24 kilograms per caput, shows by 1949 a marked decline; similarly, U.S. consumption, which in 1946 averaged 8 kilograms per caput, was considerably lower in 1949.
EUROPE
Capacity and Production
The total annual capacity of European mills now in operation can be estimated at around 850,000 tons. Close to 60 percent of this total capacity is located in the three northern countries, Finland, Sweden, and Norway, the rest being divided among a great number of countries in all parts of the continent.
During the whole postwar period, fiberboard output in many of the important producing countries has been reduced as a result of temporary stagnations caused by modernization and enlargement works, shortage of electricity or fuel, or other conditions affecting production. Therefore, the gap between theoretical capacity and actual output has in numerous cases been considerable. Total European output of fiberboards, which increased very substantially from 1948 to 1949, still lags behind mill capacity.
The foremost producer of fiberboards in Europe, Sweden, has at present fifteen mills in operation with an aggregate annual capacity of more than 300,000 tons. Notwithstanding a certain caution in producing insulating boards because of marketing difficulties in this type, total output of fiberboards increased from 196,000 tons in 1948 to 233,000 tons in 1949, or by 19 percent. Production of hardboards, representing at present close to 80 percent of total output, reached a new peak figure in 1949 (185,000 tons against 172,0 tons in 1948)
By the end of 1949 Finland's fiberboard industry, with six mills fin operation, had; already reached the theoretical capacity of about 120,000 tons a year. Since during the year new machinery was about be installed or was being run at low speed in a number of factories, total production did not exceed 54,900 tons, as compared with 42,400 tons a year earlier. Hardboard output in 1949 nearly doubled the previous year's volume (16,500 tons against 8,600 in 1948).
In Norway only three fiberboard plants were in operation during 1949. While their total capacity, after alterations and modernizations carried out curing the year, amounts to about 70,000 tons annually, actual output in 1949 was 47,500 tons (39,000 tons in 1948), out of which 20,900 tons were classed as hardboards (17,400 tons in 1948).
Towards the end of the war, the seventeen fiberboard factories of Germany had reached an annual production level of about 75,000 tons of hardboards over 14,000 tons of insulating boards: The redrawing of frontiers and dismantling which followed the war left only nine plants on German territory, sensing a theoretical capacity of 53,000 tons of hardboards and 6,000 tons of softboards. Out of this total, factories capable of producing 12,000 tons of hardboards were situated in the Soviet Zone and the rest in the Western Zones. By 1949, the number of plants in the Western Zones totaled nine, and the aggregate manufacturing of these plants is estimated at 75,000 to 80,000 tons per year, out of which approximately 55,000 tons are hardboards. Actual production in the Bizone alone increased from 36,800 tons in 1948 to 56,800 tons in 1949, which was well above the peak figure arrived at during the war. The main part of the Bizone production is hardboards. Output in the French Zone has also increased considerably
One of the dismantled German plants is now in-installed in the Saar. This factory produces about 3 million m² of "extra hard" board per year.
Austria has four fiberboard mills, with an aggregate production capacity estimated at around 30,000 tons a year. However, actual production lags far behind this theoretical figure. In 1949, it totaled 17,600 tons (in 1948, 13,200 tons), out of which 8,600 tons were hardboards.
The United Kingdom and France have at present three plants each, and the total annual capacity in each of these countries is 40,000 tons. Output of fiberboards in the United Kingdom increased from 34,200 tons in 1948 to 39,000 tons in 1949. The proportion of insulating boards has been about 60 percent of the total. Output in France in 1948 was 18,300 tons, out of which 10,300 tons were hardboards. The output figure for the first three-quarters of 1949 (13,900 tons) indicates that the whole year's production might have leached at least the previous year's level
In Italy there are four factories of importance, which have a total annual capacity of some 29,000 tons. With a number of small plants, the country's aggregate capacity adds up to about 32,000 tons per year, 29,000 tons of which are hardboards. Total output in 1949 was 26,900 tons as compared with 25,300 tons in 1948. The main part of this production - nearly 92 percent in 1941 and 98 percent in 1948 - was hardboard.
Belgium and Switzerland also belong among the medium-class European producers Belgium, with two factories in operation, is reported to possess an annual production capacity of 25,000 tons, and Switzerland, with three factories, a total capacity of 20,000 tons per year. Belgian output has dropped slightly, from 15,800 tons in 1948 to 15,100 in 1949. Swiss production was estimated at 12,000 tons in 1949, as compared with 8,500 tons in 1948.
Toward the turn of 1948/49 the Netherlands, which had already produced some quantities of insulating boards, began operations at a new factory in Hoogezand. The plant, using straw as raw material, is equipped with machinery of the Defibrator type and has a capacity of 10,000 tons of hard and semi-hard boards and about 8,000 tons of insulating board. The country's total output increased from 2,600 tons of insulating board in 1948 to 5,100 tons of hardboard and 1,800 tons of insulating board; in 1949.
Other Western European producers of fiberboard are Denmark and Ireland, the latter being a relatively recent newcomer. Denmark has a production capacity of about 8,000 tons per year. Its actual output in 1949 declined from the 1948 figure of 7,500 tons to; 6,300 tons of insulating board. The only fiberboard factory in Ireland was put into operation in 1949. It is reported to have an annual capacity of 8,000 to 10,000 tons of hardboards made from straw.
Among the eastern European countries (excluding the Soviet Zone of Germany) Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia are known to have one fiberboard factory each in operation. It is reported that the Yugoslavian plant has at present an annual capacity of 4,000 tons of hardboards, but that, after completion of enlargements under way, its capacity will be increased by 7,000 tons of hardboard. The Czechoslovakian plant is reported to have doubled its original capacity and to be able now to produce 12,000 tons of hardboards.
Outlook
It is reported that domestic markets for fiberboards in Sweden are expected to be further consolidated in 1950. Although exports of insulating boards may remain relatively low, continued strong demand for hardboards is expected to give impetus to increased production. The country's production capacity will be increased in accordance with this trend. Information available suggests that one new plant for hardboard manufacture, with an annual capacity of 23,000 tons. is under construction and that two additional hardboard mills are planned for the very near future, one of which, with an annual capacity of 10,000 to 12,000 tons is scheduled to be in operation by the second half of 1951 and the other, with an output of about 12,000 tons a year, by the spring of 1952. By that time, the total capacity of the Swedish fiberboard industry is expected to reach nearly 350,000 tons, divided between hardboards and insulating boards in the proportion of 2 to 1.
As an exporter Finland is in somewhat the same position as Sweden, but it is believed that the possibilities for increasing domestic consumption of fiberboards are perhaps greater here than in Sweden, where the absorption on the home market is already relatively high. The capacity of existing Finnish mills: has recently been increased by new machinery. One new plant, using sawmill waste as raw material and waste from a plywood factory as fuel, started operations at the beginning of 1950., This mill produces hardboards exclusively, and has a capacity of 10,000 to 12,000 tons a year. It is estimated that the country's capacity will, during the current year, reach the theoretical figure of 135,000 tons, out of which about 85,000 tons will be insulating boards.
A new plant, with a capacity of about 6,000 to 10,000 tons of insulating board, is scheduled to start operation in Norway during the latter half of 1950. The mill can be easily enlarged for production of other types of fiberboards. Another mill, producing about 10,000 tons of hard and semi-hard boards, will also come into operation during 1950. By the end of the year, the country will thus have five mills with an aggregate capacity of about 90,000 tons annually.
In Western Europe, where all the fiberboard-producing countries are also importing fiberboards, only France and Spain are know to have new mills under construction. The new French mill, scheduled to be completed in 1951, will have an annual capacity of 8,000 tons of hardboards. The first Spanish fiberboard factory, with a capacity of about 10,000 tons of hardboards, is planned to begin operations during the first: half of 1951. Two of the fiberboard plants in the United Kingdom are reported to have planted the installation of new machinery for the annual production of 10,000 tons of hardboard each. In addition, two of Italy's large hardboard plants are reported to be planning to double their production within the next two years.
In Central Europe, increases in capacity in Western Germany and Austria are planned for the near future. In Western Germany one new plant, with an annual capacity of 9,000 tons of hardboard and 4,000 tons of insulating board, is under construction, and will be completed in 1951 or 1952. In Austria, three new plants for the manufacture of hardboards are projected.
According to plans reported, considerable new producing capacity will come into being in the Eastern European countries during the next few years. Yugoslavia is scheduled to complete by 1951 the construction of a mill with an estimated capacity of 12,000 tons of hardboards and 6,000 tons of insulating boards. In Czechoslovakia, a new plant with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons of hardboards and 8,000 tons of insulating boards was to be put in operation toward the middle of 1950, and another factory with similar capacity at the beginning of 1951. Moreover, the economic plan of Poland provides for the construction of three plants, each with a capacity of 10,000 tons of hardboards and 8,000 tons of insulating boards between 1951 and 1953. The current five-year plan of Hungary also provides for the erection of one fiberboard mill with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons. The actual production and the plans for the future in Romania are not known.
On the basis of these data, approximate though they are, it can be estimated that European capacity will be increased within the next two years or so by an additional 250,000 to 300,000 tons. The installation of new machinery and the construction of new plants are designed primarily to increase output of hardboards.
NORTH AMERICA
Capacity and Production
The United States, by far the world's greatest fiberboard producer, has at present more than twenty fiberboard mills in operation Their aggregate annual capacity can be estimated at about 1,200,000 tons (including laminated board), roughly one-third of this quantity being hardboard and two-thirds insulating board.
Actual production of fiberboards in the United States increased rapidly during the earlier postwar years, the volume rising from 868,000 tons in 1946 to 973,000 tons in 1947 and 1,152,000 tons in 1948. In 1949, however, output declined sharply to about 801,000 tons. This drop was attributed to strikes, one of which paralyzed the mill of one of the larger producers for several months and another of which, in an allied service industry, kept a second producer idle for a similar duration. Toward the end of the year, however, the production rate improved, and during the first quarter of 1950, output was almost 250,000 tons. If the first-quarter rate continues evenly throughout the rest of the current year, the volume of production for 1950 could reach at least the 1947 figure.
Canada is reported to have five large fiberboard plants in operation. The newest of these, situated in New Westminster, British Columbia, is manufacturing pressed hardboards from the wood waste of a plywood plant. Present Canadian capacity is estimated at close to 200,000 tons per year. Production, which amounted to 118,000 tons in 1946, increased to 145,000 tons in 1947 and to 149,000 tons in 1948. In 1949, it reached the peak figure of 171,000 tons.
Outlook
It is reported that a big company in the United States is enlarging its plant by new machinery with an estimated annual capacity of 100,000 tons of insulating board. Another company is scheduled to complete during 1950 a new factory which will manufacture 80,000 tons of hardboards. Taking into account some further additions and eventual new plants in Canada also, it has been estimated that North American capacity may increase within the next two years by at least 200,000 tons.
OTHER AREAS
U.S.S.R.
The Soviet Union, which produced some fiberboard in the prewar years, is reported to have at least one fiberboard plant at present with an estimated annual capacity of 10,000 tons of hardboard and 8,000 tons of insulating board. It is not known however, whether this plant is in operation. There are important plans for increasing fiberboard production capacity during the years to come. According to reports, seven new factories are to be constructed during 1951-54, with an aggregate annual capacity of 70,000 tons of hardboard and 56,000 tons of insulating board.
Africa
A Masonite type of factory was to start production in the Union of South Africa toward the end of 1948 or the beginning of 1949. Its capacity at 20,000 tons annually, and the major part of production, it is reported, will be hardboards.
During the war, two small plants in British East Africa were in operation sporadically but since then nothing has been heard about their activity.
Plans for establishing fiberboard mills in the French Tropical Territories have been postponed, possibly with the exception of one plant with a 10,000-ton capacity in Gabon. It is estimated that by 1952 the French Overseas Territories will produce 20,000 tons of fiberboards.
Asia
In Asia, only Japan is at present producing fiberboard. Its production amounted to 9,000 tons in 1947 and reached A volume of 18,000 tons in 1948.
India has been experimenting, however with the of building boards using bamboo as the principal raw material, and the results, at the laboratory level have been promising. If these experiments prove economically favorable, development an industrial capacity on this basis could have importance for the whole bamboo-growing region of South and East Asia.
Proposals for the rehabilitation of Indonesia visage the establishment of a fiberboard industry in 1952/53. Realization of any such plans is, however, reported to depend largely on the possibility of mobilizing foreign capital.
Oceania
Australia at present has two fiberboard factories; one of these uses cane as its raw material, and the other is based on the Masonite process. Production of softboard manufactured from sugar cane depends on the output of the sugar industry, and has remained relatively constant at about 9,000 tons annually. This volume of production does not meet the demand, but it is considered that increased supply ought to be obtained by expanding the output of softboard manufactured from other materials. Australian hardboard production is using as raw material relatively low-grade material from mixed hardwood forests. Output was about 10,600 tons in 1947, and it was hoped to reach a level of 17,000 to 18,000 tons by 1950. One new plant with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons of hardboard is reported to be under construction in Tasmania; it is scheduled to start operation in 1950 or 1951.
The only fiberboard factory in New Zealand has an annual capacity of 20,000 tons. During the year 1948/49, total output was 13,000 tons.
Latin America
In Brazil, one plant has sporadically produced insulating board from banana tree stems, but it reportedly stopped operations in mid-1949 because of lack of raw material. A new and larger mill is reported to be under construction in the State of São Paulo for the manufacture of softboard.
Argentina has now completed the construction of its first fiberboard plant. The factory is equipped with Swedish machinery and has an annual capacity of 10,000 tons of hardboards manufactured from wheat and flax straw. Its production, it is reported, will exceed domestic requirements.
The only fiberboard factory in Peru is estimated to have an annual capacity of no more than 1,000 tons. Plans for constructing a plant in Chile are reported to have been suspended.
The latest newcomer among fiberboard producers in Latin America is Mexico. Its first plant, equipped with machinery of the Defibrator type, is scheduled to be completed in late 1950. It will have an annual capacity of about 10,000 tons of hardboard.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Export trade in fiberboards has, traditionally been dominated by North America and the Northern European countries. Since 1947, the Canadian and United States export figures have been constantly declining, whereas Sweden, the world's biggest fiberboard exporter, and Finland have been able to increase their exports. Austria has also shown activity on the export markets lately.
For the United States, the largest producer of fiberboards, exports are of very minor importance, representing in 1949 less than 3 percent of production. In contrast, Canada exported nearly 19 percent of its production in 1949; Norway almost 20 percent, Austria more than 32 percent, Sweden about 42 percent, and Finland almost 58 percent.
During the last three years, shipments from the principal exporting countries have been as follows:
|
Country |
1947 |
1948 |
1949 |
|
|
(Thousand tons) | ||
|
Austria |
3 |
3 |
6 |
|
Finland |
... |
29 |
32 |
|
Norway |
5 |
10 |
9 |
|
Sweden |
76 |
95 |
98 |
|
Canada |
47 |
41 |
32 |
|
United States |
37 |
33 |
21 |
Some other countries - for example, Belgium - export considerable quantities of fiberboards from time to time, and it is worth mentioning that New Zealand has lately joined the group of exporters. Moreover, there are indications that Italy may show some activity on hardboard markets abroad.
During the past few years, two important trends have manifested themselves in the fiberboard trade. One of these is a somewhat weakening demand for softboards and a relatively strong demand for hardboards; the other is the closing of markets for imported fiberboards in a number of countries and the opening of new markets in other countries. Both of these trends indicate that a definite movement is going on and that it would be premature at the present moment to speak of any stabilized pattern in the fiberboard trade.
The United Kingdom has been the largest imported of fiberboards, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Imports of the principal receiving countries during the last three years have been as follows:
|
Country |
1947 |
1948 |
1949 |
|
|
(Thousand tons) | ||
|
Belgium |
10 |
8 |
11 |
|
Denmark |
9 |
7 |
16 |
|
France |
5 |
3 |
... |
|
Netherlands |
13 |
29 |
25 |
|
Switzerland |
4 |
3 |
1 |
|
United-Kingdom |
34 |
49 |
37 |
|
Canada |
19 |
14 |
... |
|
United States |
30 |
27 |
20 |
|
Brazil |
3 |
2 |
... |
|
India |
1 6 |
2 9 |
... |
1 Years 1947-48.
2 Years 1948-49.
In certain countries - notably France and Switzerland, and also the Union of South Africa and New Zealand - fiberboard imports have declined as a result of rising domestic production. However, new markets have opened in other parts of the world. For instance, it is reported that in 1949 Sweden and Finland: shipped about 12,000 tons of fiberboard to Australia and more than 10,000 tons to Argentina. Some increase in fiberboard imports is also shown for Israel, British East Africa, Malaya, Hong Kong, and Brazil.
During the first months of 1950, imports to the United Kingdom indicated a definitely strengthened demand, obviously as a result of the relaxation of controls
