Commodity report

Fibreboard

The last report on fibreboard appeared in the March 195£ issue of Unasylva. This present report, which deals with the evolution of world production, consumption and trade in fibreboard up to the end of 1955, is based on a paper prepared by the FAO Secretariat for the International Board Consultation held in Geneva from 21 January to February this year. It includes some new information submitted to the Consultation by participants. The next issue of Unasylva will contain a first commodity report on particle board, again based on a paper prepared by FAO for the Board Consultation and on the contributions to the discussion at the Consultation made by participants.

Production

Though the beginning of the fibreboard industry dates back half a century, large-scale commercial production - of both compressed and non-compressed fibreboard - only developed between the wars, in the United States.¹

¹ To some readers a word of explanation concerning nomenclature may be necessary. Previous reports on fibreboard in this journal have referred to the two main groups of products of this industry as insulation board and hardboard, and these two terms are freely used in this present report. However, the recent International Board Consultation noted that the presently-used classification hardboard and insulation board no longer adequately described the range of products so named nor the uses made of these products It recommended the adoption of the alternative classification compressed and non compressed fibreboard, a nomenclature likely to be adopted in several European countries in the near future. The advantages of this alternative nomenclature are that it is technically sound, understandable by the consumer, and provides non-conflicting subdivisions. Thus non-compressed fibreboard includes both rigid and semi-rigid insulation board while compressed fibreboard comprises semi-hardboard, hardboard and superhardboard. In the present report which introduces these recommended terms to a wider public for the first time, the terms non-compressed fibreboard and insulation board are interchangeable, as are the terms compressed fibreboard and hardboard the latter including all three density ranges - semi-hardboard, hardboard and super-hardboard. hardboard accounting for less than a tenth of the total United States output of fibreboard.

As early as 1898 a plans to manufacture " hardboard " was established in the United Kingdom, a similar plant followed in 1908 in New Jersey, and a plant was set up in Canada in the year 1909. The production of porous fibreboard did not start in the United States of America until 1914, but the insulation-board industry in the United States expanded rapidly in the early 'twenties.

The first major hardboard plant came into production at Laurel, Mississippi, in 1926. From less than 2,000 metric tons in that year, output in the United States rose to 25,000 metric tons in 1929. However, demand only grew slowly and by 1939 production was no more than 54,000 tons. Thus, at the outbreak of the second world war, insulation board was still far and away the most important fibreboard product,

Meanwhile, the fibreboard industry began to develop rapidly in Scandinavia, the first plant coming into Operation in Sweden in 1929. By 1939, fourteen mills had been established in the three northern countries with a capacity totalling around 160,000 tons, slightly more than half of this being hardboard. In the late 1930's, mills began to be established in various other countries and the pattern of the world fibreboard industry on the eve of the war was approximately as shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1. - WORLD FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION IN 1938 (in thousands of metric tons)

Region	Compressed	Non-compressed	Total
Europe
Three northern countries	50	69	119
Remainder of Europe	15	34	49
North America
U.S.A.	50	550	600
Canada	-	34	34
U.S.S.R.	-	3	3
Oceania	11	7	18
WORLD	126	697	823

At this time, then, world production of fibreboard was still well under a million tons, and pretty well confined to North America, Europe and Oceania (in fact, Australia). The United States alone accounted for three fourths of world output. United States utilization of treated insulation board as exterior sheathing in residential building was the leading application of fibreboard at this time. Significant, perhaps, is the fact that already Europe was producing more hardboard than was the United States of America. Eighty-five percent of all fibreboard produced in 1938 was insulation board. It should not be overlooked that in the United States hardboard production was limited to one company until after the war, because of patents.

Over most of Europe the war halted developments, but expansion continued in Sweden, and, to a lesser extent, in Finland and Norway. Between 1938 and 1948, capacity in the northern countries almost trebled. Elsewhere in Europe new plants sprang up after the end of the war. By 1948, Europe was producing over half a million tons of fibreboard, of which three fifths was hardboard. The majority of the new capacity added since 1938 was for hardboard.

Meanwhile, production of both hardboard and insulation board continued to grow in the United States, output in 1948 being over half a million tons greater than a decade earlier; rather more than half of the increase was in hardboard, which in 1948 accounted for nearly 30 percent of total fibreboard output against less than 10 percent in 1938. In Canada, too, production rose by some 91,000 tons, of which hardboard - - not produced before the war - represented 38,000 tons.

In Oceania, output nearly doubled, with expansion in Australia and the establishment of the first mill in New Zealand. In Africa and Latin America, no fibreboard was yet being produced, but several small capacity plants had been established in the Far East, nearly all in Japan.

TABLE 2. - WORLD FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION IN 1948 (in thousands of metric tons)

Region	Compressed	Non-compressed	Total
Europe
Three northern countries	197	150	347
Remainder of Europe	113	56	169
North America
U.S.A.	331	821	1152
Canada	38	87	125
U.S.S.R.	4	3	7
Oceania	18	17	35
Asia	10	5	15
WORLD	711	1139	1850

Thus, by 1948, world production had more than doubled compared with a decade earlier and was approaching 2 million metric tons. The United States of America was still far and away the largest producer, but its share of world production had fallen from 73 percent to 62 percent, while that of the three northern European countries had risen from 14 percent to 19 percent. Nearly three fifths of the increased output occurred in hardboard, which now accounted for over 38 percent of the world total as against 15 percent a decade earlier, having outstripped insulation board in all regions save North America.

In the course of the next seven years, output of both hardboard and insulation board expanded all over the world. In 1956, for the first time, fibreboard production topped three million tons. This was not far short of capacity - estimated at over 3.5 million tons - having regard to the rate at which mills were being established or enlarged, and taking into account the necessary running-in time.

Provisional estimates of world production in 1955 are set out in Table 3.

TABLE 3. - WORLD FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION IN 1955 (in thousands of metric tons)

Region	Compressed	Non-compressed	Total
Europe
Three northern countries	476	176	652
Other	391	163	554
North America
U.S.A.	485	1012	1497
Canada	62	134	196
U.S.S.R.	50	30	80
Oceania	81	15	96
Africaa	55	15	70
Asia	25	15	40
Latin America	30	10	40
WORLD	1655	1570	3225

^a Almost entirely Union of South Africa.

Two things will be at once remarked. Firstly, though still the largest individual producer, the United States now accounts for less than half the world output. Secondly, production of hardboard has risen much more quickly than that of insulation board, so that hardboard today accounts for over half of all fibreboard produced.

Table 4 shows, by regions, the development of world fibreboard production over the decade 1948-1955. Some preliminary estimates for 1956 are included.

Between 1946 and 1956, world production of fibreboard rose by over 150 percent. The only setback was in 1952, when fibreboard shared the fate of practically all forest products in that year. Even in 1952, however, it was the three exporting countries of northern Europe that bore the brunt; elsewhere production declined only slightly or continued to expand. Since 1952 steady progress has been recorded in all regions.

The steady decentralization of the fibreboard industry is illustrated in Table 5.

The pattern of distribution, and the evolution of that pattern, is similar to that of world pulp output; if anything, decentralization is proceeding more rapidly. In addition to a significant increase in the share of the three northern countries, there has been an equally striking increase in the share of the rest of Europe. especially in the last seven years as new mills and added capacity have come into operation in the United Kingdom and in continental Europe - east and west.

TABLE 4. - WORLD PRODUCTION OF FIBREBOARD, 1946-1956, BY REGIONS (in thousands of tons)

TABLE 5. - REGIONAL SHARES OF WORLD FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION, 1938, 1948 AND 1955 (percentage of total)

Region	1938	1948	1955
North America	77	69	52
of which U.S.A.	(73)	(62)	(46)
Europe	20	28	38
of which three northern countries	(14)	(19)	(20)
Alt other regions	3	3	10

Table 6 brings out the rise in the importance of hardboard since 1938:

TABLE 6. - COMPRESSED FIBREBOARD AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION, 1938, 1948 AND 1955

Region	1938	1948	1955
North America	8	29	32
Europe	39	60	72
Other regions	52	56	74
WORLD	15	38	51

The United States of America in 1966 accounted for 65 percent of the world output of insulation board, but for only 29 percent of total hardboard production.

Fibreboard production capacity today exceeds 4 million tons. Estimated capacity in the several regions is given in Table 7.

Table 7. - WORLD FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION CAPACITY, 1955/1956 (in thousands of metric tons)

Region	Compressed	Non-compressed	Total
Europe	1105	420	1525
of which: 3 northern countries	625	240	865
rest of Europe	480	180	660
North America	730	1285	2015
of which: Canada	100	165	265
U.S.A.	630	1120	1750
U.S.S.R.	90	70	160
Oceania	95	20	115
Asia	35	15	50
Africa	65	20	85
Latin America	60	5	65
WORLD	2180	1835	4015

Plans for expanding fibreboard production have been reported from all parts of the world, notably North America, northern Europe, eastern Europe, the U.S.S.R. and Japan. By the end of 1957, Asian capacity will exceed 80 thousand tons, with the completion of new projects in Japan, Formosa and the Philippines. U.S.S.R. capacity is planned to reach 430 thousand tons (of which 200 thousand tons compressed board) by 1960. This will still be insufficient to meet rising domestic needs, and a similar expansion is expected in the succeeding quinquennium. Capacity targets for 1960 in Poland and Czechoslovakia are 106 and 60 thousand tons respectively. It is impossible to quantify all reported expansions since they range from mills already under construction to projects which have not passed the stage of preliminary investigation. It seems almost certain, however, that by the end of the current decade world capacity will have risen to 5 million tons, of which probably close on 3 million tons will be hardboard.

World trade in fibreboard

The majority of fibreboard produced is consumed domestically, and a relatively small part of world output enters into international trade. In 1955, only 11 countries exported on a significant scale (over 5,000 tons); in only five of these countries (Austria, Belgium, Fin land, Norway and Sweden) is the fibreboard industry largely directed to the export market.

Table 8 shows the course of world exports of fibre board from 1946 to 1956, the principal exporters being listed separately.

TABLE 8. - EXPORT OF FIBREBOARD, 1946-1956 (in thousands of metric tons)

About one sixth of all fibreboard produced enters into international trade. North American exports have remained relatively steady; for the most part these consists of border trade between Canada and the U.S.A. Sweden alone accounts for over half of all world exports, and Finland and Norway together for another 15 per cent. Like all forest products, fibreboard was badly hit by the slump which followed the 1950-51 boom. By 1954, however, exports had exceeded their previous peak level, and a further substantial expansion was recorded in the following year. Imports of fibreboard are naturally more scattered geographically. Even so, only 12 countries in 1955 imported more than 5,000 tons. The pattern of world imports of fibreboard since 1946 is shown in Table 9.

The United Kingdom has consistently been the largest importer of fibreboard throughout the decade. accounting in 1955 for more than half of Europe's imports. Next in importance comes the Netherlands, with an import of 56,000 tons in 1965.

The bulk of the world's trade in fibreboard is thus intra-European, the main flow being from northern Europe to western Europe. Northern Europe is also a principal supplier to other importing regions, though smaller flows from Austria, certain western European countries and Canada supplement Scandinavian supplies.

One serious warning must be entered concerning these trade figures. A comparison of world import with world export totals shows a consistent deficiency in the former. The export figures of those countries in which the fibreboard industry is well-established are certainly more reliable. In the trade accounts of many importing countries, fibreboard imports are not yet recorded separately, being classified under a variety of headings - paperboard, miscellaneous wood products, etc. This statistical deficiency needs to be borne in mind in interpreting the trade figures. It also leads to an underestimate of apparent consumption (production plus or minus trade balance) in many of the importing areas.

TABLE 9. - IMPORTS OF FIBREBOARD, 1946-1956 (in thousands of metric tons)

The pattern of world production and trade in fibreboard is similar in many ways to that in pulp and paper; the same heavy concentration of production in Europe and North America; the same dependence in other regions on external sources of supply. But Canada is so far not a large contributor of fibreboard to other regions, and the U.S.A., which has emerged with a substantial net export of pulp in recent years, so far exports insignificant amounts of fibreboard overseas. One recent development is worth remarking, since it may be a portent. In the last year or so, small quantities of fibreboard have been sold or offered to Europe from places as remote as Brazil and New Zealand, while South Africa has readily built up a useful export trade to this market. This challenge to the Scandinavian exporters on their very doorstep is significant; it points to the opportunities for new trade flows. and longer-range competition in other areas of the world.

It is perhaps surprising at first sight that as much as 17 percent of world production of fibreboard is traded internationally. A fibreboard plant is much less costly to install than a pulp or paper mill; its raw material requirements are a good deal less exacting. Since fibreboard is fairly cheap in relation to its volume, freight costs (including insurance and packaging) bear heavily. This would lead one to suppose that imported fibreboard would find it difficult to complete with the indigenous product.

Three main factors account for the continued expansion of international trade in fibreboard. First, over most of the world national markets for fibreboard are still small and its uses largely experimental. Neither hardboard nor insulation board are uniform products; each category embraces a wide variety of boards involving differences in processing in many cases. The total consumption of all types of fibreboard is no criterion of the potential market for a particular plant manufacturing specified products. Hence imports tend to increase until prospective markets have matured to the point at which they will support indigenous production. The establishment of a new mill will seldom satisfy the demand for all board categories. Indeed, the very appearance of domestic supplies may encourage more extensive use and stimulate, rather than replace, imports.

Secondly, a related point, the economies of size in fibreboard production are considerable.² In northern Europe, the principal exporting region, there has been a marked tendency towards larger production units in recent years with a consequent fall in average production costs measured in constant prices. Larger-scale, lower-cost production has reduced the protection afforded by distance and freights.³ Hence, the minimum economic size for a new project in an importing country - the size at which its product can successfully compete with the imported product - has increased.

² By way of example data submitted to the International Board Consultation indicated that, other things being equal, the total production costs per ton for a 30-ton/8-hour mill producing hardboard are roughly the same as the direct production costs per ton (i. e., excluding fixed charges) for a 7-ton/8-hour mill. In other words given similar unit costs for raw material, labor, power, etc. the smaller mill could only just compete with the larger even if its equipment and buildings were supplied free.

Hasty conclusions should not be drawn from this example. Other things are seldom equal. Small plants may have access to cheaper raw material supplies; if they have been in operation some years, much of the initial investment may have been written off; and so forth. Yet the example does serve to illustrate the economies of size.

³ Since sea freights are on a volume basis, the freight (and hence the protection) is about three or four times as great on insulation as on hardboard.

Finally, in many importing regions the imported product may have a quality advantage. This stems less from the raw material employed than from the acquired skill and experience in controlling the production process. High quality and special purpose fibreboards should continue to find outlets, however rapid the decentralization in world production.

At the same time, the quality advantage which board from the traditional exporting centers enjoys in overseas markets must not be exaggerated. Indeed, experience in Australia and New Zealand shows that, on the whole, imported boards, while cheaper, fall short of the standards set by domestically produced board. This may, of course, be due to the fact that the highest quality foreign production is directed to more highly competitive markets, so that the boards actually competing in Australia and New Zealand with domestic boards are not fully representative of the output of the established exporting regions. In any case, Australia and New Zealand are in no sense undeveloped countries; countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America starting on board production for the first time will have more reason to take into account possible quality differences. Even so, the importance of quality must not be overestimated, since in underdeveloped countries the number of uses which, in practice, demand a high grade board with outstanding strength properties is likely to be limited; for most purposes average quality board will suffice. Resistance to weather, decay and insects are likely to be more important considerations.

Clearly, the impact of several of the factors mentioned above must weaken with the passage of time. Thus though the absolute level of world trade in fibreboard may rise, in the long run one must expect that a falling proportion of world production will enter into long-distance trade.

Prices

The price of fibreboard over the last two decades has risen much less than that of other forest products, and has been subject to less serious fluctuations. Indeed, in relation to commodity prices generally, fibreboard has become progressively cheaper. The opportunities for reducing costs in a new industry through technical progress are great, and with the multiplication of producing units competition has ensured that these economies have been translated into price.

Table 10 shows the changes which have taken place in the price of hardboard and insulation board respectively in Sweden since 1937. The Table also shows the relationship between fibreboard prices and wholesale prices generally, taking March 1937 as 100.

TABLE 10. - SWEDISH FIBREBOARD PRICES AND WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, 1937-1955 (1937=100)

Year	Hardboard (1/8 in.) A	Insulation board (1/2 in.) B	Wholesale price index C	Hardboard index (A/C)	Insulation board index (B/C)
1937	100	100	100	100	100
1938	94	92	97	97	95
1948	119	135	188	63	72
1951 Feb.	155	173	262	59	66
1951 July	177	200	262	68	76
1952	158	185	278	57	67
1953	129	173	261	49	66
1954	139	173	261	53	66
1955	139	173	271	51	64

This Table shows that in real terms the price of hardboard has halved while that of insulation board has fallen by one third since 1937.

Even more striking is the comparison between the trend of fibreboard prices and that of sawnwood prices, shown in Table 11.

Sawn softwood prices, at their peak level in 1951, reached seven times their 1937 level and were roughly double the 1947-48 level. Fibreboard prices, at their peak, were less than double their prewar level and less than 50 percent higher than those prevailing in 1947-8. In 1966, sawnwood prices were still 95 percent higher than in 1947-48, while fibreboard prices were 7 percent lower. Undoubtedly, fibreboard's relative cheapness and steadines in price have greatly contributed to its extended use.

With the fibreboard industry approaching maturity, opportunities for production economies become fewer.

TABLE 11. - DEVELOPMENT OF FIBREBOARD PRICES COMPARED WITH SAWNWOOD PRICES (1947-48=100)

Year	Sawn softwood (1)	Hardboard (2)
1949	99	100
Half year
1950: 1st	122	100
2nd	169	100
1951: 1st	200	130
2nd	214	148
1962: 1st	150	148
2nd	174	103
1953: 1st	177	100
2nd	178	97
1964: 1st	185	94
2nd	189	93
1955: 1st	198	93
2nd	195	93
1956: 1st	195	93

(1) Index of Swedish export prices f.o.b. for 2½" x 7" u/s redwood battens.
(2) Index of Swedish prices for 1/8" hardboard.

TABLE 12. - WORLD CONSUMPTION OF FIBREBOARD IN 1955

Region	Production:	Imports:	Exports:	Apparent consumption:
	in thousand metric tons			in kgs/head
Europe	1206	334	453	1087	2.7
3 northern countries	652	-	349	303	20.5
Others	554	334	104	784	2.0
North America	1693	42	67	1668	9.3
USA	1497	21	24	1494	9.2
Canada	196	21	43	174	11.4
U.S.S.R.	80	-	-	80	0.37
Oceania	96	7	2	101	7.0
Africa	70	18	20	68	0.32
Union of S. Africa	70	1	20	51	3.8
Asia (excl. China)	40	44	5	79	0.09
Latin America	40	4	2	42	0.24
WORLD	3226	449	549	3125	1.5

NOTE. The figures in this and succeeding Tables, and those quoted in the accompanying text, slightly understate consumption, especially that in the less-developed regions. Moreover, all the consumption figures quoted are of apparent consumption, i.e. not taking into account changes in stocks at mills or in the hands of distributors and consumers.

Finally, it should be noted that consumption includes utilization in further manufacture - part of which may be destined for export. Thus, since the three northern countries, for example, export prefabricated houses containing fibreboards, the per capita consumption figures quoted here overstate final consumption by the nationals of those countries.

The declining curve of fibreboard prices (in relation to prices generally) must therefore be expected to flatten out in the coming years.

Intense competition between mills has played a big part in bringing about the reduction in the relative price of fibreboard which has taken place over the last two decades With each reduction, the competitive power of fibreboard vis-a-vis alternative materials has increased, and the potential market has widened. A comparison of the widely differing use practices in various parts of the world suggests that, even at present prices, the potential market is far from being exhausted.

Consumption

The world today (excluding China) consumes nearly 3.5 million tons of fibreboard, representing an average consumption of about 1.5 kilograms per head. Apparent consumption in 1955 ranged from over 20 kilograms per head in northern Europe to less than one tenth of a kilogram in Asia.

The contrast between the regions where fibreboard production is most highly developed (North America, Europe and Oceania) and the rest of the world is brought out in the following Table:

TABLE 13. - CONCENTRATION OF FIBREBOARD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN 1955

Region	Percentage shares of:			Consumption per head in kg.
	Population	Fibreboard production	Fibreboard consumption
N. America, Europe and Oceania	29	93	91	4.78
Rest of world (excl. China)	71	7	9	0.18

The United States of America is still the biggest market for fibreboard, followed by the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, Western Germany, France and Australia, in that order (Table 14).

TABLE 14. - FIBREBOARD MARKETS IN 1954/55 (in thousands of metric tons annually)

The changes recorded in consumption per head in certain countries since 1948 reveal some interesting features (Table 15).

TABLE 15. - ESTIMATED FIBREBOARD CONSUMPTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1948-55 (in kilograms per head)

Country	1948	1952/3	1954/5
Sweden	21.8	19.5	20.0
Norway	9.1	17.9	20.0
Finland	6.4	12.1	16.8
Canada	6.9	10.6	11.4
New Zealand	1.1	10.3	10.9
United States	7.8	7.7	9.0
Australia	2.6	6.4	8.0
Netherlands	2.9	3.7	6.1
Denmark	2.1	3.9	5.7
Israel	-	0.9	5.0
Switzerland	2.0	3.1	4.0
United Kingdom	0.8	1.9	3.9
Ireland	0.8	2.7	3.6
Belgium	2.3	2.9	3.4
Austria	1.4	2.4	3.1
Western Germany	0.8	0.9	2.2
France	0.5	1.4	2.0
Union of South Africa	-	2.0	3.4
Italy	0.6	0.8	0.9
Mexico	0.1	0.1	0.3
Japan	0.1	0.1	0.2

The gap in fibreboard usage between Sweden and the other northern countries has closed considerably in recent years. Canada has overtaken the U.S.A., where consumption per head has not shown any great increase. [Remarkable advances have been registered in Australia and New Zealand, as also, though to a lesser extent, in several western European countries. The upward trend is even more evident if the countries are listed in consumption groups for each period.

Table 16 throws some light on future market prospects; for fibreboard. It is evident that there is a great potential for increased consumption in east and west Europe, in the United States of America and in all the less-developed regions. At the same time, it would be dangerous to assume that the high consumption rates recorded in northern Europe, Canada and New Zealand are realizable in other countries. In these countries climatic conditions and building practices have favored the larger-scale use of fibreboard instead of sawnwood and plywood. The same is true, of course, of the United States, though it should be pointed out that one of the reasons for the slower growth in fibreboard consumption in that country is the fact that the supplies of plywood and of lumber in wide and long boards have been more adequate and cheaper than in Europe. In a number of countries the rising particle board industry has captured markets which might have been won by fibreboard. In the coming years particle board will be an increasing rival to fibreboard in many applications.⁴ Nevertheless, because use practice today varies so widely between countries, the upward trend in consumption levels should everywhere be reinforced as knowledge of possible applications becomes more widespread.

⁴ This point will be discussed further in the Commodity Report on particle board which will appear in Unasylva Volume 11, Number 4.

TABLE 16. - PER CAPUT CONSUMPTION OF FIBREBOARD IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1948-55

Consumption group, in kg. per head	1948	1952/3	1954/5
20+			Sweden
			Norway
15+		Sweden	Finland
		Norway
10+	Sweden	Finland	Canada
		Canada	New Zealand
		New Zealand
5+
	Norway	U.S.A.	U.S.A.
	U. S. A.	Australia	Australia
	Canada		Netherlands
	Finland		Denmark
			Israel
3+		Denmark	Switzerland
		Netherlands	U.K.
		Switzerland	Ireland
			Belgium
			Austria
			Union of S. Africa
2+	Netherlands	Belgium	W. Germany
	Switzerland	Ireland	France
	Australia	Austria
	Belgium	Union of S. Africa
	Denmark
1+	Austria	U. K.
	New Zealand	W. Germany
		France
-1	U.K.	Italy	Italy
	W. Germany	Mexico	Mexico
	Ireland	Japan	Japan
	Italy	Israel
	France
	Mexico
	Japan
	Israel
	Union of S. Africa

Prospects

Fibreboard capacity has risen rapidly since the war, and is still expanding. So much so that manufacturers in a number of countries believe that overinvestment has taken place and that consumption is lagging behind present production potential. Under these circumstances, it is not unnatural that existing producers who depend largely on export markets view with some alarm the establishment of new capacity in regions outside the traditional producing centers. There is a danger that, if the new plants are based on unsound economic lines they may require permanent and excessive protection in order to survive; such instances have already occurred.

Yet fibreboard products are capable of making a considerable contribution towards raising the living standards of the less-developed regions of the world. In many of the countries in these regions, consumption is likely to remain at very low levels so long as the countries concerned have to rely entirely on imports. Any expansion of domestic capacity in these countries will considerably stimulate consumption. Providing presently-importing countries have adequate supplies of suitable raw materials, with the possibility of producing board economically for the markets envisaged, there is a case for new capacity. What is presently known about current and prospective plans for expanding capacity in different countries suggests that, as in the case of pulp and paper, a gradual, if not very pronounced. trend towards decentralization of world fibreboard production will make itself felt in the coming years.

Existing producers face two main problems. The industry as a whole, and the individual producers which comprise the industry, strive to expand existing outlets for its production and to develop new ones. The changes which have occurred in the pattern of fibreboard output reflect the success which fibreboard has met with in finding and developing new outlets. Current production especially in the U.S.A., comprises a remark able variety of types with very diverse properties, characteristics and prices.

At the same time, individual producers concentrate on improving the quality of their product to the point where it can compete with those of their competitors and meet specifications where they exist. This gives rise to a trend towards standardized, high quality production. This trend towards a uniform product is more pronounced in Europe than in the United States. There is some virtue, of course, in having a standard product, a recognizable commodity with prescribed and predictable behavior. It facilitates the establishment of codes and specifications and makes for fair competition between products. But there is also a danger that in many applications, especially in novel ones, boards will be employed which possess qualities higher than are strictly required. This may be because codes and specifications are insufficiently tolerant, or it may be because cheaper and lower quality, though yet adequate, boards are not being made. This is irrational use, and, from the standpoint of the community, represents unnecessary waste.

Discussions at the recent International Board Consultation made it abundantly clear that more exact knowledge about fibreboard's applications will be one of the industry's principal preoccupations in the coming years. To determine the physical properties required in particular applications, to devise appropriate testing methods which will gain general acceptance, and to ensure that officially prescribed codes and specifications are based on actual requirements in use: these are the directions in which research must be intensified if the continued growth of the fibreboard industry is to be assured.

It cannot be overemphasized that, though the fibreboard industry is reaching maturity in regard to production techniques and processes, it is still relatively young as regards the applications of its manifold products. Hitherto, demand has been sufficiently strong in normal years to ensure outlets in more or less convential end-uses for all the fibreboard produced. As has already been pointed out, the generalization of current applications alone should ensure the maintenance of the industry's present growth rate for some time to come.

J. C. W.