World consumption of paper and paperboard has doubled within the past 20 years, passing from 28 million metric tons in 1938 to over 62 million in 1958. On the basis of prospective population growth and general economic development, it should more than double within the next 15 years.
This is an assessment put forward by the world's leading experts attending the FAO World Consultation on Pulp and Paper Demand, Supply and Trade held at Rome in September. They put consumption at 88 tons by 1965 (of which 17 million would be newsprint) and 134 million tons by 1975 (26 million being newsprint), Domestic consumption in North America alone would then reach 57 million tons (10 million tons being newsprint) and 27 million in Western Europe (6 million tons being newsprint). Industry already has plans for expanding its capacity which will take care of most of the increase expected up to 1965.
To produce the additional pulp needed by 1975, roughly 280 million solid cubic meters more roundwood will be required if the pulp is manufactured from wood alone. This corresponds to about one third of the current removals of wood for industrial use. The Consultation noted that supply difficulties already exist or may arise in the foreseeable future in Eastern Europe, the Near East and in some parts of the Far East. Even in Western Europe sustained efforts will be needed if difficulties are to be avoided. It emphasized the importance of making long-term plans to secure the industry's future needs in raw materials.
To meet rising needs, substantial investments will be required, averaging (at current prices) more than U.S. $1,000 million annually to 1965 and perhaps $1,500 million annually in the decade 1965-75. It is in the deficit regions that investment needs will rise most rapidly, and in the developing countries there will be both scope and need for investment from overseas.
Today only two regions, North America and Western Europe, are net exporters; together they represent four fifths of world production. All other regions depend in varying degrees on supplies from these two regions, ranging from one third of the domestic consumption in the case of Latin America to two thirds in the case of Africa.
These other regions have ambitious plans for developing their pulp and paper industries. Already production has risen sharply over the last decade. Simultaneously, their net imports of paper have risen by 40 percent and those of pulp have doubled. These regions cannot afford an unlimited increase in paper imports. Vigorous efforts to raise domestic supplies will be needed if they are not to restrict their consumption. Shortage of paper could frustrate their economic, educational and social progress.
The Consultation agreed on the need for a marginal reserve capacity if market stability is to be assured. All-out capacity is unlikely to be realized in practice, and there is need for a cushion to absorb temporary unexpected increases in demand as well as unforeseen setbacks in the production schedule. There have been times since 1945 when the industry in several countries has operated for prolonged periods at close to maximum capacity. This has encouraged investors, and by 1958 had brought into existence throughout the world roughly 4 ½ million tons more capacity than would have been needed to satisfy consumption even had demand grown normally, i.e., had there not been a setback to general economic expansion in 1957/58.
International trade in pulp and paper has grown to the point where, at close on $3,000 million, it accounts for over 3 percent by value of total world trade. This compares with less than 5 percent for iron and steel. The total level of world trade in wood pulp now stands at 7 ½ million tons (4 ½ million tons in 1948) and that in paper and board has reached 10 ½ million tons (6 ½ million tons in 1948). In recent years, the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe have expanded their trade in pulp and paper, exporting close on 300,000 tons of both pulp and paper in 1958. These exports were balanced by imports of roughly the same order. Domestic requirements are rising rapidly in these regions and the Consultation, on the basis of information communicated, did not think that export availabilities would rise in these areas in the coming years on a scale likely to affect world market stability.
The Consultation, which was attended by 27 experts and advisers from 16 countries, elected as its Chairman, Mr. Robert M. Fowler, President of the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association.
All photographs, Courtesy, B. C. Forest Service
