This chapter gives an example of using LDPS2, applying it to the case of China with real data.
China is one of the major livestock producers in the world. According to WAICENT it keeps nearly 50 percent of pigs, 20 percent of goats and chickens and 15 percent of buffaloes of the world inventory. The number of livestock in China has grown considerably since economic reform began in the late 1970s. Meat production has grown even more dramatically. Annual growth rates of meat production from different species were more than 10 percent, except for pork (8.2 percent), over the last decade. Current production of beef and chicken meat has reportedly multiplied by 10.7 and 4.8, respectively, over the last 10 years. In the same period, cattle numbers have grown by 4.8 percent annually. As shown by LDPS2, this is technically impossible and suggests over-reporting in statistics.
China has extremely diverse production environments, ranging from tropical in the south to sub-arctic in the north. It contains mountains, high plateau and deserts in the west and plains, deltas and hills in the east. Taking this diversity into account, livestock production in China can be conveniently divided into 18 different production systems, on the basis of agro-ecological zones and type of animal (Table 11 and Figure 21).
| Dairy cattle | (1) pastoral area, (2) warm and cold area, (3) tropic and subtropical area |
| Beef cattle | (4) pastoral area, (5) warm and cold area, (6) tropic and subtropic area |
| Sheep | (7) pastoral area, (8) semi-pastoral area, (9) crop area |
| Goats | (10) pastoral area, (11) semi-pastoral area, (12) crop area |
| Buffaloes | (13) tropic and subtropic area |
| Pigs | (14) traditional production, (15) intensive production |
| Chicken | (16) traditional production, (17) commercial egg production, (18) commercial meat production |
As mentioned before, livestock statistics in China seem to be inconsistent, as reported production, livestock numbers and expected and reported productivity do not match. They narrowed the range of possible data sets. The reported output of livestock products in 1995 was used as for a demand target in LDPS2, and these were tentatively adjusted through calculation with data on productivity of each production system. Table 12 shows the production levels for livestock products. Parameters used are shown in Appendix B.
| Production systems | Production in 1995 |
| 1. Dairy cattle
production (1)Pastoral area (2)Warm and Cold areas (3)Tropic and sub tropic areas |
Milk 5,764,000
tons 1,515,000 3,224,000 1,025,000 |
| 2. Beef cattle
production (1)Pastoral area (2)Warm and Cold areas (3)Tropic and sub tropic areas |
Meat 3,200,000
tons 400,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 |
| 3. Buffaloes | Milk 2,200,000 tons |
| 4. Sheep (1)Pastoral area (2)Sub-pastoral area (3)Crop area |
Meat 1,030,000
tons 480,000 70,000 480,000 |
| 5. Goats (1)Pastoral area (2)Sub-pastoral area (3)Crop area |
Meat 890,000
tons 130,000 40,000 720,000 |
| 6. Pigs | Meat 36,484,000 tons |
| 7. Chicken | Meat 6,450,000
tons Egg 13,414,000 tons |
Beef production
Statistics in China, cattle comprises water buffaloes (Bubalus) and yaks (Bos grunniens) besides cattle in a narrower sense (Bos taurus). In this chapter, the word `cattle' is used for Bos taurus, or for cattle called `Yellow cattle' which are kept for both meat production and draught. The amount of beef produced in 1995 is reported in FAOSTAT to be 3.7 million tons (3 kg per capita). However, this is at variance with meat consumption reported in official statistics in China at 2.4 kg of beef and mutton per capita in urban households and 0.7 kg per capita in rural households. Meat production of yellow cattle was classified into three production systems, and total beef production (from yellow cattle) was estimated by LDPS2 to be 3.2 million tons. According to China Agricultural Yearbook, more than 70 percent of beef is produced in warm and cold areas where only 50 percent of the total cattle is kept. LDPS2 indicates that beef production in warm and cold areas is likely to be over-reported, whereas that in tropic and subtropic areas seems to be under-estimated in the statistics.
Beef production and the number of cattle are reported to have grown by 27.5 and 4.8 percent annually over the last five years, which is technically impossible. The statistics also showed that the offtake rate of all cattle, including buffaloes and yaks, was 23 percent in 1995. However, LDPS2 showed that the cattle herd is growing by two to three percent annually, and the offtake rates are 15 percent for yellow cattle and 9 percent for buffaloes. This suggests that the amount of meat produced and its growth rate are also over-reported in the statistics.
| LDPS2 | China Agricultural Yearbook | |
| 1. Pastoral total | 15,110 | 15,705 |
| female breeders | 5,327 | 6,409 |
| calves under 1 yr. | 3,196 | 3,307 |
| 2. Warm and cold total | 57,826 | 45,538 |
| female breeders | 18,967 | 22,830 |
| calves under 1 yr. | 12,329 | 13,648 |
| 3. Tropic and subtropic total | 39,040 | 38,062 |
| female breeders | 13,487 | 15,089 |
| calves under 1 yr | 8,092 | 6,962 |
| 4. Grand total | 111,977 | 99,305 |
| female breeders | 37,781 | 44,326 |
| calves under 1 yr | 23,617 | 23,919 |
LDPS2 indicates that the number of female breeders must be smaller than that reported and that the total number in warm and cold area shown by LDPS2 was larger. Male yellow cattle are kept for draught for more than three years on average, and breeders are kept for six years. According to the statistics, the ratio of breeders to total inventory is about 50 percent in warm and cold area, while that in the other areas is 40 percent. This means that the ratio of draught cattle to total inventory and/or years in draught use in the warm and cold area are smaller than those in the other areas, and that production has shifted from draught to meat production faster than the LDPS2 has estimated. However, this does not seem to be a realistic proposition, according to interviews to farmers and government officials.
Mutton production
In China sheep is kept for meat and wool production. Sheep production is classified into three sub-production systems, pastoral, semi-pastoral and crop areas. Productivity of mutton is generally low in pastoral area.
| LDPS2 | China Agricultural Yearbook | |
| 1. Pastoral total | 93,537 | 78,334 |
| female breeders | 41,434 | 41,439 |
| 2. Semi-pastoral total | 9,229 | 10,423 |
| female breeders | 4,185 | 5,734 |
| 3. Crop area total | 48,082 | 38,507 |
| female breeders | 18,160 | 20,166 |
| 4. Grand total | 150,847 | 127,263 |
| female breeders | 63,780 | 67,336 |
| female replacements | 19,473 | 21,201 |
| under 1 yr. | 60,886 | 43,100 |
In comparison with the herd size and composition stated in the statistics, LDPS2 computes larger herd sizes to meet the production target. This occurs because LDPS2 shows the number of all new-borns in one year as that of young stock and the statistics show only those retained for next year. The sheep inventory calculated by LDPS2 is almost similar or a little bit smaller than that stated in the statistics. The user needs to remind the specification of LDPS2.
Pork production
Pork is a very important livestock product in China. Pigs are kept all over the country. In rural areas, every farms is used to keeping a few pigs and slaughter them for the spring festival and other cerebrations. Pork production has intensified but traditional production is still the predominant form. It is said that today about 15 to 25 percent of total pork is produced using modern intensive systems. LDPS2 can calculate two pig production systems at the same time and is able to change production ratio of those systems. LDPS2 figured that, if the number of pigs and the amount of pork produces as stated in the statistics were correct, the traditional pork production sector would still be large in China.
Because per head energy requirements of the replacement and other stocks were thought to be almost equal to that of the breeder stock, 0.8 was used for system specific LSUs instead of the original value (0.4) in the study (see 2.3.1.2 and the parameters sheet [E77:G78]).
LDPS2 (Percentage of the modern sector) |
China | |||
| 15% | 20% | 25% | Agricultural Yearbook | |
| 1. Number of total pigs | 430,637 | 421,410 | 412,184 | 441,691 |
| female breeders | 32,447 | 31,873 | 31,300 | 34,302 |
| 2. Number of slaughtered pigs | 498,256 | 498,155 | 498,054 | 480,510 |
Chicken meat and egg production
There are many backyard chickens in China. Their number is estimated to be about 1 billion (China Agriculture University). In addition, modern intensive chicken meat and egg production with improved breeds has grown rapidly. Recent fast growth of chicken meat and egg production has largely occurred in the intensive system. According to FAOSTAT, 6.45 million tons of chicken meat and 13.4 million tons of eggs were produced in 1995. LDPS2 shows that nearly 30 percent of chicken meat and 40 percent of eggs were produced by the traditional sector.
(million birds, 1000 tons)
| Total birds | Slaughtered birds | Meat | Egg | |
| 1. Traditional village production | 1,000 | 800 | 1,760 | 5,000 |
| 2. Modern intensive egg production | 1,645 | 622 | 752 | 8,414 |
| 3. Modern intensive meat production | 934 | 2,550 | 3,938 | |
| TOTAL | 3,579 | 3,972 | 6,450 | 13,414 |
Feed requirements of each production system are calculated with the demand driven routine of LDPS2. The user can know surplus or deficit of feed resources by comparing the requirements and feed supply in the "Resources" sheet.
LDPS2 is also able to calculate the size of target herd and possible production amounts with available feed resources using the resource driven routine.
Grazing land
LDPS2 calculates feed supply from each grazing area with different growing period, however, there is no such information available in China.
According to China Agricultural University, grazing land in China (about 400 million ha in total) has a potential to produce about 1,256 million tons of fresh grass per year. It is roughly equivalent to 44 million LSUs (370 billion Mcal). According to the statistics, 313 million ha have actually been used as pasture in 1995. Energy supply from grazing land is 34 million LSUs for one year. (LDPS2 indicates that 235 million ha of grazing land with 120 to 149 growing days is needed to produce the amount of energy, but this does not make any sense.)
Other feed resources
Data concerning the other known feed resources were also calculated on the resource sheet of LDPS2. The known feed resources available were 116 million LSUs (990 billion Mcal, see Appendix B).
The feed resources were allocated to each production system, using a series of decision rules (Steinfeld and Becker, 1991).
Physiological criteria are straightforward in that they can be universally applied. Certain feed types are not suitable for certain animals (e.g. roughage for poultry) and so cannot be allocated to them, or only in small quantities.
Geographical criteria relate to the locational coincidence of feed availability and livestock populations. For example, 30 percent of grazing land is in the pastoral area, of which 50 percent is in the tropic and subtropic areas. Crop residues and by-products are useful mainly in the crop areas. Indigenous maize, of which 90 percent is produced in the warm and cold areas, and hence would not be used much in other areas because of relatively high transport costs.
Economic criteria relate to cost/price ratios of basic concentrates, or commercial feeds to the price of main livestock products. These ratios roughly indicate the profitability of feeding various feed types at given productivity levels.
Total feed requirements computed by LDPS2 amounted to 181 million LSUs (1,541 billion Mcal) of feed energy, excluding half of sheep and young goat stocks which were shown too high in LDPS2 (see section 4.1.3). According to the Feed Utilisation Matrix of LDPS2, there was a gap of 31 million LSUs (262 million Mcal) between energy supply and demand. Even modelling yellow cattle and buffaloes on under-nutritional conditions, i.e. meeting only 90 percent of the requirements, it would still leave a gap of 26 million LSUs (218 billion Mcal) in pig and chicken production. Household wastes were estimates to account for 14 percent of the total feed resources allocated and 23 percent of the requirement for pigs and chicken.
Many studies concerning China's food demand and supply toward the next century have been reported recently (Brown, IFPRI, USDA, World Bank, OECF). They pointed out that it is very important with regard to China's food security to consider the competition of grains between food and feed.
Though more detailed information and economic analysis are required, demands for livestock products in 2005 were roughly estimated and the potential of the livestock sector in China to meet the demands was technically assessed using LDPS2.
Total demand in 2005 was estimated on the basis of population growth, income growth (GDP per capita) and income elasticity for each product. Demands for each sub-production system were estimated with total demand and growth rates of each sub-system calculated by the herd growth routine of LDPS2 (Table 17). Effects of price changes and the role of trade were not considered in the estimation.
| Production systems | Demand in 2005 (*) | Production in 1995 | Av. an. growth |
| 1. Dairy cattle
production (1)Pastoral area (2)Warm and Cold areas (3)Tropic and sub tropic areas |
Milk 9.900,000
tons 1,800,000 6,800,000 1,300,000 |
Milk 5,764,000
tons 1,515,000 3,224,000 1,025,000 |
5.6 % 1.7 7.8 2.4 |
| 2. Beef cattle
production (1)Pastoral area (2)Warm and Cold areas (3)Tropic and sub tropic areas |
Meat 4,900,000
tons 520,000 2,580,000 1,800,000 |
Meat 3,200,000
tons 400,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 |
4.4 2.7 4.9 4.1 |
| 3. Buffaloes | Milk 2,400,000 tons | Milk 2,200,000 tons | 0.9 |
| 4. Sheep (1)Pastoral area (2)Sub-pastoral area (3)Crop area |
Meat 1,400,000
tons 600,000 90,000 710,000 |
Meat 1,030,000
tons 480,000 70,000 480,000 |
3.1 2.3 2.5 4.0 |
| 5. Goats (1)Pastoral area (2)Sub-pastoral area (3)Crop area |
Meat 1,100,000
tons 130,000 40,000 930,000 |
Meat 890,000
tons 130,000 40,000 720,000 |
2.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 |
| 6. Pigs | Meat 46,500,000 tons | Meat 36,484,000 tons | 2.5 |
| 7. Poultry (Chicken) | Meat 11,900,000
tons Egg 17,000,000 tons |
Meat 6,450,000
tons Egg 13,414,000 tons |
6.3 2.4 |
(*) Estimated demand = population 2005 × production per capita 1995 × [ 1+ income elasticity × change in income]
source; Population; the UN
GDP; World Bank
Income elasticity; Meat and eggs: Simpson et al., 1994
Milk: estimated with production in 1995 - 1990
The following improvements in productivity and changes were assumed.
| Type of animal | Productivity parameter | 1995 | 2005 |
| Dairy cattle | Milk yield (tons) | 2.0 4.5 |
2.4 5.4 |
| Young mortality rate | 0.7 0.6 |
0.6 0.5 |
|
| Beef cattle | Fertility rate | 0.6 0.65 |
0.65 0.7 |
| Young mortality rate | 0.11 0.08 |
0.10 0.07 |
|
| Carcass weight (tons) | 0.18 0.25 |
0.198 0.275 |
|
| Demand for draught power (unit) | 6 mill. 900 mill. |
4.8 mill. 720 mill. |
|
| Sheep | Carcass weight (slaughter stock, tons) | .015 .017 |
.019 .015 |
| Young mortality rate | 0.10 0.12 |
0.09 0.11 |
|
| Goats | Carcass weight (slaughter stock, tons) | 0.010 0.014 |
0.012 0.016 |
| Young mortality rate | 0.10 0.12 |
0.09 0.11 |
|
| Buffaloes | Fertility rate | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| Demand for draught power (unit) | 300 mill. | 240 mill. |
Demands for cow and buffalo milk in 2005 were estimated to be 9.9 and 2.4 million tons, respectively. This translates into annual growth rates of 5.6 and 0.9 percent, respectively. Estimates provided through the demand driven routine show that if average milk yield per cow was improved by 20 percent, only 3.0 million heads of cows (in total 4.9 million head of cattle) would be needed to achieve the demand.
Demand for beef in 2005 was estimated at 4.9 million tons (3.7 kg per capita), which is 1.5 times the present production. The demand driven routine showed that more than 190 million cattle would be required to meet this demand, if productivity does not improve. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that more than five percent of total stock could be decreased if carcass weight of slaughter stock increased by 10 percent. According to LDPS2, growth rate of total cattle inventory was two to three percent annually and that of production in pastoral area was zero because of its low productivity. LDPS2 figured that improvement of fertility rate from 60(65) percent to 65(70) percent and mortality rate of young stock from 11(8) percent to 10(7) percent would improve the growth rate of the herd to more than five percent. With these assumed improvements, the total cattle inventory and beef production in 2005 were estimated to be 155 million head and 4.9 million tons.
Demand for mutton and goat meat in 2005 was assessed at 1.4 and 1.1 million tons, respectively. The demand driven routine showed nearly 200 million sheep would be required to meet this demand if productivity is not improved, and the herd growth routine showed that it would be difficult to expand the herd to that level in ten years. The shortage of mutton to meet the demand in 2005 was estimated to be 0.1 to 0.2 million tons.
Demand for pork in 2005 was estimated at 46.5 million, 1.3 times the present production. About 80 percent of total pork is produced by the traditional backyard system. However, this would remain stable for the next ten years since the rural population has not grown significantly over the past five years. By 2005, its contribution to the total pork production would be decreased to 60 percent. LDPS2 showed that the number of pigs in the intensive system would need to increase to 140 million, which was 2.5 times the present level, making the total number 490 million.
Demand for chicken meat and eggs in 2005 was estimated to be 11.9 and 17.0 million tons, 1.8 and 1.3 times the present production, respectively). The output of traditional backyard production, which produces 1.76 million tons of chicken meat and 5 million tons of eggs at present, would also remain stable. LDPS2 showed that, 2.3 billion commercial layers (1.4 times the present number) and 2.2 billion commercial broilers (1.9 times the present number) would be required to meet the demands.
Demand for feed
LDPS2 calculated that the energy requirement for livestock production in 2005 would reach 221 million LSUs (1,880 billion Mcal), which is 1.2 times the current requirement. This would require an increase of 19 million LSUs (163 billion Mcal) for beef, 8 million LSUs (71 billion Mcal) for pigs and 8 million LSUs (72 billion Mcal) for chickens.
To satisfy this demand for energy, supply should increase by twenty percent, excluding grazing land and house wastes (ten percent), straws (40 percent) and maize and soybeans (50 percent). The amount of cereal grains and its contribution to total energy supply would reach 168 million tons or nearly 30 percent in 2005 (Figure 23).
Through the application, LDPS2 can appraised various production systems of different outputs. One of the main purpose to use LDPS2 is to correct technical inconsistencies in available information and to estimate values in lacking data. It is reported beef production in China has grown rapidly since the late 1970s, however, LDPS2 successfully showed that the amount and the growth rate of beef production seems to be over-reported in recent years. There are also some discrepancies in the number and the composition of the cattle herd in each region. The sensitivity analysis of LDPS2 was also useful for this purpose.
As mentioned in the part on sheep, LDPS2 shows the number of all new-borns in one year for that of young stock, regardless of years in young, because the LDPS2 model was designed to calculate on a yearly basis. It also causes other problems even in other calculation routines. The users are kindly requested to remind the specification of LDPS2, especially in the case production cycle is shorter than a year.
About twenty percent of pork and two thirds of chicken meat and eggs are assumed to be produced by the modern intensive sector. The intensive production depends largely on purchased feeds (grains) and does not have enough land to recycle all manure produced. If the manure is not recycled appropriately, there would be a large threat for water pollution. LDPS2 now shows maximum manure output in dry matter which is often larger than real amount (see 2.3.4-5). It can be used for rough estimation, but the users need to calculate with other method when they need more precise information such as application amount of manure to certain fields.
Strong demand for livestock products will continue for the next decades supported by income growth and urbanisation. The livestock sector in China has largely improved its productivity in order to meet the demand, and need to continue the effort. There seemed to be more room to improve the productivity.
The largest constraint for expanding livestock production in China is feed resources. LDPS2 figured that available feed was definitely not enough to keep all livestock and large
ruminants were in under nutritional condition in China. Now the government of China has started "the programme for grain saving livestock production" with efficient use of crop by-products and improvement of grazing land. I assumed increment of crop by-products and other resources for feed by ten to forty percent, and nearly 170 million tons of cereals was required to meet the demand for livestock products in 2005, besides them. A very rough estimation was used in this trial and more precise study was needed, however, efficient use of feed resources will also be indispensable for livestock production in the future. While the resource driven routine didn't play an active part in this chapter, the routine is useful to calculate the size of target herd and possible production amounts with available feed resources.
