Agricultural Development Economics

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision
Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from today’s levels, reaching 9.15 billion by 2050. At the global level, agricultural production and consumption in 2050 are projected to be 60 percent higher than in 2005/07.

The perceived limit to producing food for a growing global population remains a source of debate and preoccupation despite the agriculture sector’s historical ability to meet such demand. This paper is the latest in the series which aims to provide insights into how food and agriculture may develop, between now and 2050, making note of key assumptions and uncertainties. Such a long look forward is inherently burdened with uncertainty, but the methodical inclusion of the range of technical expertise found throughout FAO on likely paths of development and constraints results in an outlook that is widely used for planning and framing debates in food and agriculture.

Achieving Zero Hunger - The critical role of investments in social protection and agriculture (second edition)
This paper provides estimates of investment costs, both public and private, required to eliminate chronic dietary energy deficits, or to achieve zero hunger by 2030. This target is consistent with achieving both the Sustainable Development Goal 2, to eliminate hunger by 2030, and the Sustainable Development Goal 1, to eradicate poverty. The study adopts a reference 'baseline' scenario, reflecting a business as usual situation, to estimate the additional investment requirements. In this scenario, around 650 million people will still suffer from hunger in 2030.

Looking ahead in world food and agriculture: Perspectives to 2050
This volume follows up on a high-level expert meeting on How to Feed to the World in 2050 held in 2001, by gathering updated versions of technical materials prepared for the occasion, along with further work.

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» How to feed the world in 2050

World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 - Interim Report
This is an updated version, with extension of projections to 2050, of two of the key chapters (Chapters 2 and 3) of the study World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030 - An FAO Perspective published in 2003. This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages.

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World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 - An FAO Perspective
in a co-publishing arrangement with Earthscan Publications
The projections cover supply and demand for the major agricultural commodities and sectors, including fisheries and forestry. This analysis forms the basis for a more detailed examination of other factors, such as nutrition and undernourishment, and the implications for international trade. The report also investigates the implications of future supply and demand for the natural resource base and discusses how technology can contribute to more sustainable development.

The progress made towards this target depends on many factors, not least of which are political will and the mobilization of additional resources. Past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the development process, particularly where the majority of the population still depends on this sector for employment and income.

  World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030
  World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030 Summary report

A hardcopy of these reports can be ordered at the FAO online publications catalogue.

©FAO/Olivier Asselin

Global Perspective Studies

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