Price indices for oilcrops and derived products
The indices are derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded products. To access the series of indices along with commentary on latest price developments click here.
Oilcrops, oils and meals market assessment - May 2012
Summary : After two seasons of relatively ample supplies, in 2011/12, the market for oilseeds and derived products is set to tighten again. Global oilcrop production will not be sufficient to satisfy growing demand for oils and meals. Global soybean production is estimated to decrease by almost 10 percent, one of the steepest year-on-year falls on record. With oilcrops other than soybeans only partly compensating for the shortfall, total oilcrop production should drop by 4 percent from last season to a three-year low. Notwithstanding, a moderate growth in global oil supplies should be possible, thanks mainly to further expanding palm oil production and to the availability of large stocks at the beginning of the season. Global meal supplies, on the other hand, given their heavy dependence on soybeans, anticipate to experience a pronounced drop. With respect to demand, global consumption of oils/fats should continue expanding at an about average rate, which also reflects further rising demand from the biodiesel industry. By contrast, growth in meal consumption is expected to slow down markedly, as reduced supplies and rising meal prices are expected to curtail demand. In general, consumption growth could only be satisfied by drawing from inventories with a conspicuous reduction in global stocks of oils, and especially meals, likely to be necessary. This will push the global stock-to-use ratios for both product groups to historically low levels. Consequently, following the last few months’ rise in international quotations for oilseeds and derived products, continued firmness in prices seems likely. Adding to market concerns is the prospect of only a modest, if any, growth in 2012/13 aggregate oilcrop plantings in the northern hemisphere, which would imply a strong reliance on South America for an improvement in the global supply situation. Read full document
The Monthly Price and Policy Update (MPPU) is a new information product provided by the oilseeds desk of the Trade and Markets Division. As a complement to our bi-annual market reports, this brief note follows two purposes: first, to review the development of international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals as reflected by FAO’s specific price indices and second, to spot recent policy and market events - selected from a variety of sources - that are deemed important for the global oilseed economy. The brief shall be issued in the second week of each month, for a total of 10 issues per year. The note, which will be available in English only, will be posted on this web page as well as sent to subscribers of the Oilcrops Market Network.
The Monthly Soybean Supply & Demand Round-up is a new, provisional product provided by the Oilseeds Desk of the Trade and Markets Division. As a complement to our bi-annual market reports on oilseeds, oils and meals, this brief note presents our most recent global supply and demand estimates for soybeans. The brief, which is available in English only, will be posted in the last week of each month, for a total of 10 issues per year.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook: Oilseed Projections 2011-2020
Highlights: (i) Prices in the oilseed complex are expected to remain firm and above historical levels, with the exception of meal prices, which, after an initial fall, are projected to level off (see graphic below). Growth in global production and consumption of oilseeds and derived products slows with price firmness and reduced income growth. (ii) Two-thirds of global expansion in oilseeds plantings is earmarked to occur in the developing world. Developing countries will also lead the increase in global vegetable oil output. The market share of Malaysia and Indonesia increases further, but growing environmental constraints could alter projections. (iii) Developing countries, in particular China and other Asian countries, should dominate the rise in vegetable oil consumption. Biodiesel production is projected to contribute significantly to global consumption growth.
» Read the full Outlook chapter on oilseeds, oils and meals
See also:
»Presentation on vegetable oil outlook (2011-2020)
»Outlook chapter on biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel)
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