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Last Update: novembre 2016

Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix

(disponible en anglais seulement).

In October, FAO’s price index for oilseeds remained virtually unchanged, inching up 0.5 points (or 0.3 percent) compared to September 2016. By contrast, the indices for vegetable oils and oilmeals both dropped by about 4 points (or 2 percent).

The oilseed index’ steady level primarily reflects stable soybean values, with October prices for soybean averaging at around the same level as in September 2016. During October, on one hand, the prospect of a record large global soybean harvest in 2016/17 – possibly exceeding 333 million tonnes – continued to weigh on soybean prices. In the United States, yield estimates have again been revised upward, driving production forecasts nearly 10 million above last season’s level. Forecasts for South America also improved, especially in Brazil, where the pace of plantings is well above last year’s, but also in Argentina, notwithstanding a relatively slow start in sowings. On the other hand, however, soybean prices received support from persistently firm buying interest, in particular from China – at a time of the season when the United States serve as the world’s sole supplier. Meanwhile, prices for rapeseed, the second most important component in FAO’s oilseed index, appreciated  by about 3 percent, underpinned by poor harvest progress in Canada and tight availabilities in the EU. Moreover, global 2016/17 rapeseed output is heading for a third consecutive reduction, marking a 4-year low. Sunflower seed quotations also increased somewhat, mainly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated global supplies in 2016/17.

The oilmeal index lost strength for the fourth consecutive month. Soymeal has been the dominant player behind the drop in the index in October. International soymeal values continued to weaken, reaching a 6-month low, driven by current and prospective ample availabilities. Market participants expect global supplies to increase further in the coming months as beans continue to be crushed for oil in order to compensate for depressed global output of other vegetable oils – thereby leading to an accumulation in global soymeal stocks.

Regarding vegetable oils, FAO’s price index dropped month-on-month but still fares well above its year-earlier level. The October decline occurred mainly on account of lower tropical oil values, under the lead of palm oil, whose prices dropped by 3.3 percent compared to their September level. On the other hand, quotations for soy, rape and sunflower oil firmed on unusually strong demand for these products, thus preventing a more pronounced fall in FAO’s index. The drop in international palm oil quotations resulted mainly from seasonal production gains in Southeast Asia, which coincided with sluggish global import demand and, consequently, rising inventory levels in major producing countries, especially Malaysia. Interestingly, towards the end of October, palm oil prices firmed again on concerns that the production recovery in Southeast Asia might take longer than earlier anticipated.  

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.