Last Update: mars 2014
Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix
mars 2014 - (disponible en anglais seulement).
In February, FAO's price indices for oilseeds and derived products all rose by about 5 percent compared to the previous month, with oilseeds, oils and meals gaining 10, 9 and 15 points respectively . Although the price indices for oilseeds and for oils continued to average below the past two seasons, they have risen to, respectively, 11-month and 3-month highs. Meanwhile, the index for oilmeals remained at close to record levels, now falling only 7 percent short of the all-time high observed in 2012.
Global oilseed and oilmeal prices strengthened mainly in response to unfavourable weather conditions in South America that led to a sizeable downward correction in this season’s soycrop forecast. While severe dryness has affected crop development in several major growing areas (especially in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil and in Argentina’s central soybean belt), excessive moisture has negatively affected harvest operations in other parts of the region (Mato Grosso in Brazil). Continued strong import demand for soybeans along with shrinking export availabilities in the United States further underpinned prices.
Strengthening rape and sunflower seed prices also contributed to the rise in the oilseed and oilmeal indices. Rapeseed prices firmed on the back of higher soybean values and, to a lesser extent, because of a weak Canadian dollar that stimulated canola exports from Canada. Sunflowerseed prices appreciated following forecasts of a poor crop in Argentina due to dry weather, which triggered concerns about export availabilities in the country. However, the likelihood for rape and sunflowerseed prices to increase further appears limited, considering that global supplies for both crops are estimated to be ample.
With respect to the rising vegetable oils price index, palm and soybean oil have been the main drivers. In the case of palm oil, prices reacted to concerns over persistently dry weather in main production areas in Southeast Asia, which may impair output in the coming months. The prospect of disappointing production results has put the market on alert because the palm oil sector already faces a below-average growth in supplies in 2013/14, while global demand continues to be firm, including from biodiesel producers. In particular, the decision by Indonesia, and recently also by Malaysia, to raise national biodiesel blending rates could boost palm oil consumption in those countries, which would trigger a reduction in global export availabilities.