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Last Update: novembre 2018

Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix

(disponible en anglais seulement).

In October, FAO’s price index for oilseeds rebounded modestly from the multi-year low recorded in September, gaining 3.7 points (or 2.6 percent) but remaining below the level of the corresponding month in 2017. By contrast, the price index for vegetable oils has fallen for the ninth consecutive month, shedding 2 points (or 1.5 percent) and marking the lowest level since April 2009. The oilmeal price index remained virtually unchanged from September, staying above last year’s level.

The slight recovery in the oilseed index primarily reflects strengthening soybean values, whilst quotations for rapeseed and sunflowerseed stabilised or weakened fractionally in October. After falling in September to their lowest level since June 2007 international soybean prices rebounded somewhat, mostly mirroring concerns over harvest delays in the US (following excessive rainfall in some growing regions) and robust global import demand amid tightening old crop availabilities in Brazil and Argentina. Furthermore, the entente reached by the US, Mexico and Canada to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) served as a positive signal for US farmers by securing overseas demand for US soybeans. Nonetheless, towards the end of October, soybean prices came under renewed downward pressure as harvesting activities in the US regained pace amid improved weather conditions in the Midwest. In the meantime, production prospects in South America, where soybean plantings have commenced, are attracting increased attention. While sowing conditions in both Brazil and Argentina are generally favourable, any disruptions would impinge on market sentiment during this critical period. International rapeseed prices remained steady, as the market was digesting the impact of both improving harvest conditions in Canada and tightening balances in the EU and Australia. In the EU, unfavourable planting conditions for the new crop (following prolonged drought) together with attractive prices of competing crops could lead to a further contraction in rapeseed supplies in the 2019/20 season. As to sunflowerseeds, international prices continued to weaken amid persistent harvesting pressures in the Black Sea region.

FAO’s price index for oilmeals did not follow the upward trend observed for oilseeds, remaining virtually unchanged instead. During the first half of October, the prices of soy meal (the single most important component of the index) firmed on concerns over supply tightness in China, only to contract again towards the end of the month, when China’s feed industry revised its voluntary standards for animal feed, lowering the recommended protein levels in pig and poultry feed. The industry’s move came in addition to China’s decision to lift its long-standing ban on rapeseed meal imports from India earlier in the month.

With regard to FAO’s vegetable oil index, the latest slide was mostly driven by falling palm oil quotations, whereas the prices of soyoil and rapeseed oils gained momentum, departing from the downward path observed earlier in the season. As for palm oil, recent favourable production conditions in Southeast Asia, combined with sluggish global import demand, led to burdensome inventory levels in Malaysia and Indonesia, which caused prices to drop for the seventh month in succession, recording 9½-year lows. On the other hand, soy oil prices recovered somewhat, after falling uninterruptedly since the beginning of this year, underpinned in part by firming crude mineral oil prices that stimulated demand for soft oils from the biodiesel sector. Additional support stemmed from the looming setback of crushing activities in Brazil, which is tied to the country’s prospective lower soybean availabilities. International rapeseed oil quotations rebounded sharply (climbing to the highest level since December 2017), mostly mirroring concerns over tighter availabilities in Canada and Australia and worries about the EU’s 2019/20 crop. Reportedly, exceptionally low water levels that hindered river transportation in central and northern Europe also lent support to prices. International sunflower oil prices remained essentially unchanged from September.

 

 

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.