Last Update: juillet 2015
Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix
(disponible en anglais seulement).
In June, the FAO price indices for oilseeds and for vegetable oils edged up by 1–2 percent (or 3 and 2 points respectively), marking a second consecutive increase for vegetable oils, but a change in direction for oilseeds, prices of which had fallen for the five preceding months. The index for meal/cakes, on the other hand, remained about unchanged (minus 0.2 percent) compared to May. In historical terms, all three indices continue to fare at multi-year lows.
The trend reversal in the oilseed index largely reflects the tendencies prevailing in the global soybean, rapeseed and sunflower market. International quotations for soybeans appreciated throughout the month, mainly reflecting concerns about the unusually wet conditions that affected plantings and yield prospects in the United States. However, the increase was contained by a bright global production outlook for 2015/16, now forecast only slightly below the 2014/15 all-time record, while total supplies are projected to grow by 4 percent thanks to exceptionally large 2014/15 carry-out stocks. As to rapeseed, international quotations continued to appreciate – climbing to an 11 month-high in June – as unfavourable weather conditions across the main producing countries resulted in a less favourable global production outlook. Production forecasts have been corrected downward in particular in the European Union, but also in Canada and Australia. Regarding sunflowerseed, lower than previously anticipated global supplies as well as weather concerns supported prices.
As to the oils index, last month’s rise was driven by both palm oil and the leading seed-oils, whose prices followed the path of the corresponding seeds. During early June, international palm oil quotations firmed considerably on account of both improved import demand (by China and India, in particular) and continued concerns about dry weather related to El Niño, which may affect major growing regions in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, new policy initiatives launched by Indonesia to encourage domestic palm oil consumption raised concerns about the country’s future export availabilities, adding to the upward pressure on prices. Interestingly, towards mid-May, palm oil prices shed part of their earlier gains, after Malaysia published larger than anticipated production figures and doubts emerged about the effectiveness of Indonesia’s new consumption-enhancing policy measures.
The oilmeal price index has been driven mainly by developments in international soymeal prices. After initial falls in June, international soymeal quotations recovered during the second half of the month, eventually remaining unchanged – on average for the whole of June – compared to May. While confirmation of record harvests in South America – and, with it, the prospect of abundant meal export availabilities – exerted downward pressure on prices, reports of less favourable crop conditions in the United States lent support to prices.