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Last Update: août 2018

Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix

(disponible en anglais seulement).

In July, prices across the oilcrops complex continued to slide. The FAO price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals both declined for a third consecutive month, shedding another 3 points (or about 2 percent). While the oilseed index dropped to a 13-month low, the index for oilmeals fared above the level recorded in the corresponding month of last year. In the case of vegetable oils, FAO’s price index lost an additional 4.2 points (or 2.9 percent), reaching the lowest level in the past two-and-a-half years.

The fresh drop in the price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals continued to be driven primarily by developments in the international soybean market. As per previous announcements, on 6 July 2018 the Chinese government started imposing an additional 25 percent import tariff on U.S. soybeans, in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the United States on the same day. Reflecting China’s duty adjustment, the United States lowered its export forecast for 2018/19, while pegging end-of-season stocks at record-high levels. This, together with a positive global production outlook, kept international soybean prices under downward pressure (NB: soybean prices had already dropped significantly in June, when deepening trade tensions between the United States and China increased the likelihood of China implementing its retaliatory tariff on US soybeans). Interestingly, towards the end of the month, the following factors led to a moderate rebound in international soybean values: i) reports of less favourable weather conditions in a number of U.S. soybean growing regions; ii) the U.S. Government announcement that it would provide financial assistance to farmers affected by the trade dispute with China; and iii) higher than anticipated import demand for U.S. soybeans from countries other than China, notably in the EU. International rapeseed prices, on the other hand, firmed in July, reversing the previous four months’ downward trend. Price gains mainly reflect heightened concerns over the EU’s deteriorating production outlook, following prolonged, extreme heat and dryness. Talk that China might step up its purchases of rapeseed in the world market as it tries to trim soybean imports also influenced prices. By contrast, sunflowerseed values dropped to multi-month lows on improved crop prospects in the Black Sea region.

With respect to soybean meal, international prices weakened on spill-over effects from the soybean market as well as larger than expected meal supplies in the United States and Brazil and subdued demand in China. Reportedly, authorities in China considered recommending lower protein levels in animal feed rations, which, if implemented, could curb global oilmeal demand in the longer term. 

As for vegetable oils, the further slide in the price index was mainly driven by fresh declines in palm oil values and, to a lesser extent, soy oil prices, which outweighed gains in sunflower oil values and continued strength in rapeseed oil markets. In July, international palm oil quotations posted a 6 percent loss that pushed the commodity’s price to a 30-month low. The depressing effect of sluggish global export demand and large stocks held by the leading producing countries was amplified by expectations of higher southeast Asian production in the coming weeks and continued price weakness in the rival soy oil market. In the case of soy oil, persistently high crushing rates in the United States, due to exceptionally attractive crush margins, underpinned the downward trend in international prices. Sunflower oil quotations, on the other hand, recovered from the multi-year lows recorded in June, supported by output contractions in CIS countries. Rapeseed oil values continued to trend upward, sustained by improving demand from biodiesel producers and negative crop prospects in the EU.  

 

 

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.