Last Update: février 2017
Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix
(disponible en anglais seulement).
The month of January has seen an upward move in prices across the oilseed complex. Compared to the previous month, the strongest gain has occurred in FAO’s oilmeal index, which increased by about 5 points (or 2.9 percent), while FAO’s indices for vegetable oils and oilseeds rose by 2–3 points (or 1.8 and 1.2 percent respectively). Compared to January 2016, all three indices firmed, posting year-on-year increases of 10–30 percent.
The price index for oilseeds, and even more so the oilmeal index, gained additional strength in January under the lead of soybeans. Main factors contributing to the rise in soybean/soymeal prices have been downward corrections in the soybean crops of the United States and Argentina, although global 2016/17 output is still forecast 13 million tonnes (or 4 percent) above the 2014/15 record. The unexpected reduction in the United States mainly reflects lower yield estimates, while, in Argentina, heavy rains and extended flooding in key growing regions adversely affected crops in the ground, pushing production forecasts some 3 million tonnes (or 5 percent) below earlier projections. By contrast, crop prospects in Brazil continue to be excellent. Considering the global market’s growing reliance (at this point of the season) on South America’s forthcoming soybean harvest, prices can be expected to remain volatile depending on (i) how climatic conditions evolve during the coming weeks, and (ii) any disruptions in shipments due to logistical problems. As to soymeal, the prospective lower soybean availabilities in Argentina – the world’s leading soymeal supplier – exerted strong upward pressure on international soymeal prices. International rapeseed and rapeseed meal prices also continued to appreciate, underpinned by a tight 2016/17 supply outlook, thus contributing to the rise in FAO’s price indices.
As to the vegetable oil market, palm oil remained the key driver behind the prolonged rise in FAO’s vegetable oil price index. Palm oil values rose for the third consecutive month reaching a 30-month high, mainly reflecting the slower than anticipated recovery of production in Southeast Asia and low inventory levels in both exporting and importing countries. Meanwhile import demand continued to be strong, and reduced stock levels in several major importing countries are expected to keep import demand high in the coming months – unless the current strength in palm oil prices triggers a shift in demand towards other vegetable oils. Rapeseed oil prices also increased further in January, following developments in the corresponding seed market. By contrast, the prices of soy and sunflowerseed oil eased on expectations of ample global availabilities.