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Last Update: mars 2018

Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix

(disponible en anglais seulement).

In February, FAO’s price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals rose by, respectively, 4.1 and 18.2 points (or 2.7 and 10.6 percent). Even though the oilseed index climbed to a 12-month high, its value remained just below the level observed in the corresponding month of last year. The oilmeal index, by contrast, fared well above the level recorded one year ago, marking a 20-month high. On the other hand, FAO’s price index for vegetable oils posted a month-on-month drop of 5.1 points (or 3.1 percent), denoting a 19-month low.

The month-on-month rise in FAO’s oilseed and oilmeal indices largely reflects developments in the global soy market. International soybean quotations mainly firmed on deteriorating crop prospects in Argentina. In several of the country’s key growing regions, the crop (which entered the critical flowering stage) has been severely hit by protracted dry and hot weather. A considerable share of the country’s crop has been rated to be in poor conditions, with irreversible damage already reported from some areas. At the same time, in parts of Brazil, heavy rains hampered soybean harvesting and raised concerns about possible pest outbreaks – although, for the country as a whole, forecasts continue to point to a near-record harvest. These uncertainties led to price gains that more than offset underlying downward pressure coming from both, forecast of ample global availabilities in 2017/18, and first, tentative projections for 2018/19 pointing to a further expansion in soy plantings in the United States. Multi-month high sunflowerseed values (stemming from declining global crushing) also contributed to the increase in the oilseed price index. Meanwhile, FAO’s price index for oilmeals rallied on account of higher soymeal prices. With Argentina being the world’s top supplier of the commodity, the deterioration in the country’s crop outlook drove international soymeal values up by almost 11 percent (month-on-month).

The drop in FAO’s vegetable oil index reflects weaker prices for most vegetable oils amid prospects of a growing global production surplus in 2017/18. International palm oil quotations posted the strongest month-on-month drop, underpinned by slower-than-anticipated import demand and expectations of rising inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia. In the case of Malaysia, export activities slowed down despite the temporary suspension of the country’s export tax on palm oil, partly because of a strengthening in Malaysia’s currency.  News about possible EU measures to restrict the use of palm oil as biodiesel feedstock across member states (on sustainability grounds) also weighed on prices. Interestingly, towards the end of February, palm oil values moved upward again, influenced by the prospect of seasonal production slowdowns across Southeast Asia and signs of improving global import demand. As for the other oils, forecasts of record soy crushing in the US weighed on international soyoil quotations, while sluggish demand (primarily from the biodiesel sector) pressured rapeseed oil prices. Only sunflower oil values firmed, underpinned by reports of production slowdowns in CIS countries.


Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.