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Last Update: août 2015

Commentaires sur la évolution récente des séries des indices des prix

(disponible en anglais seulement).

In July, the FAO price indices for oilseeds and meals rose by 34 percent compared to the previous month, gaining, respectively, 4 and 7 points. By contrast, after strengthening for two consecutive months, the index for vegetable oils decreased by 6 percent (or 9 points). In historical terms, all three indices continue to fare at multi-year lows.

 The rise in the oilseed and oilmeal price indices mainly mirrors developments in the soybean market. International soybean prices strengthened in response to (i) lower estimates for global 2014/15 closing stocks (mostly reflecting downward revisions in the United States), and (ii) lingering concerns about the impact of the unusually wet conditions on 2015/16 planting and yield prospects in the United States. Signs of a possible slowdown in purchases by China, due to weak economic growth and deteriorating crush margins, also weighed on soybean prices. Notwithstanding the recent downward revisions, the global supply outlook for soybeans in 2015/16 remains positive. As to the other oilseeds, prices for sunflower seeds also appreciated, reflecting poor production prospects in a number of key producing regions. As to rapeseed, international quotations strengthened slightly month-on-month.

The slide in the vegetable oils price index mainly reflects developments in the palm and soy oil markets. Palm oil quotations eased as increased production in Southeast Asia coincided with a slower pace of exports, especially from Malaysia. Soy oil prices also weakened – different from soybean and soymeal prices – amid ample export availabilities in South America and a favourable global supply outlook for 2015/16. Among the factors driving up global stocks is a subdued demand for palm and soy oil by the biodiesel sector in, respectively, Indonesia and Argentina.

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.