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Last Update: junio 2015

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios

(disponible sólo en inglés).

In May, the FAO price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals continued falling, whereas the vegetable oils price index moved upward. The indices for oilseeds and oilmeals both dropped by about 3 points (around 1.5–2 percent), reaching respectively 6 and 3-year lows. The vegetable oils index gained 4 points (2.6 percent) but still fared more than 40 points – or 20 percent – below the corresponding month of last year, hence staying at a 6-year low.

The progressive weakening in the price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals continued to be driven by developments in the global soy market. International soybean prices continued to lose strength following further upward revisions for South America’s bumper crop. The latest crop forecasts exceed previous expectations on account of higher yield estimates – both in Brazil, where harvest operations have drawn to a close, and Argentina, where harvesting of the second soy crop is now underway and weather conditions continue to be favourable. In addition, sowing of the 2015/16 soybean crop in the United States – where total plantings are projected to exceed the 2014/15 all-time record – are proceeding rapidly, favoured by beneficial weather.


During the second half of May, soymeal prices strengthened temporarily, mostly reflecting concerns regarding slow farmer selling and strikes in Argentina (which risked disrupting the country’s crushing and shipping operations) as well as lower than anticipated export volumes from the region. As to other oilseeds, rapeseed prices firmed (mostly reflecting lower than anticipated 2014/15 world closing stocks), thereby  preventing the oilseed price index from falling more pronouncedly.

As to the vegetable oils index, the gain recorded last month mainly reflects rising quotations for both palm and soy oil. Palm oil prices strengthened on growing concerns about a possible El Niño weather event, which could affect palm oil yields in Southeast Asia as well as oilcrop production in India – the world’s top vegetable oil importer. Below-average monsoon rains in India (for a second consecutive year) would maintain the country’s vegetable oil import requirements at record levels. Thanks to larger than originally anticipated production and inventories in Malaysia, during May the rise in international palm oil values was limited to one percent. Soyoil values, on the other hand, rose more pronouncedly (4 percent), mostly reflecting resumed import demand especially by China, but also in India, Egypt and other destinations. Furthermore, inventory levels in Argentina – the world’s largest soyoil exporter – were reported at seasonally low levels. International quotations for sunflower and rapeseed oil also moved upward, reflecting lower than anticipated world production and export supplies.

 

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.