Last Update: diciembre 2013
Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios
diciembre 2013 - (disponible sólo en inglés).
In November, FAO’s price indices for oilseeds and vegetable oils strengthened, whereas the index for oilmeals eased compared to the previous month. While the index for oilseeds gained 4 points (or almost 2 percent), the oils index increased by as much as 11 points (or 5.6 percent), causing the indices to reach, respectively, 7 and 9-months highs. The meals/cakes index fell by 6 points (or 2.3 percent), but still remains at historically high levels.
The rise in the oilseed index reflects renewed strengthening in international soybean quotations. Continued strong soybean import demand by China – while the market is basically relying on a single supplier, the United States – has driven prices up, notwithstanding US harvest pressure and the prospect of record global soybean supplies for the 2013/14 season. The United States' soybean crop estimate has been adjusted upward on improved yields; however, the forecast for US end-of-season stocks has been lowered, lending support to prices. Additional upward pressure has come from reports of harvest losses in India due to heavy rainfall, and from slow forward sales of South America’s 2014 soy crop.
With respect to the global vegetable oil market, the appreciation in prices has been mainly driven by palm oil, whose value rose by 6 percent on average (month-on-month), reaching a 14-months high. The second consecutive gain in palm oil prices reflects the concurrence of strong consumption and import demand, including for biodiesel production, and below-expectation output in Southeast Asia (following excessive rainfall), which led to a downsizing of stocks. Firm international prices for soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil – due to sustained demand – also contributed to the rise in the index. Finally, November has seen a surge (more than 30 percent month-on-month) in international coconut oil prices, reflecting a deterioration in global production and trade prospects after typhoon Haiyan brought serious damage to plantations in the Philippines.
As to the meals/cakes index, soymeal plays the dominant role: international soymeal quotations lost strength due to the prospect of record global supplies – as well as export availabilities – in 2013/14. The latest forecasts for global production and supplies of soybean meal point to a 7 percent rise compared to last season. Recent upward revisions concerned in particular the United States, Argentina and Paraguay, while the forecast for Argentina could be subject to further upward corrections, as actual soybean plantings in the country may exceed initial expectations.