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Last Update: julio 2018

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios

(disponible sólo en inglés).

June has seen a further decline in international prices across the oilcrops complex. Compared with the month of May, FAO’s price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals dropped sharply, shedding, respectively, 13 and 23 points (or 8 and 11 percent) and posting 1-year and 5-month lows. The price index for vegetable oils continued to slide, losing 5 points (or 3 percent) month-on-month – a fifth consecutive fall and a 29-month low.

The decline in the price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals primarily reflects recent developments in the international soybean market, notably the escalation of the U.S.–China trade conflict. The Chinese government’s announcement of an additional 25 percent import tariff on U.S. soybeans, poised to be implemented on 6 July 2018 as a retaliatory measure, has weighed heavily on the soybean market, with strong spill-over effects on soymeal as well as on the oilseed complex as a whole. Moreover, favourable growing conditions across the United States’ major producing regions and a record-high 1 June soybean stocks number published by the USDA contributed to the downward pressure on prices. In Brazil, the pronounced fall in Chicago futures prices, coupled with the Real’s progressive depreciation, dragged down soybean export prices – despite robust domestic demand and a lingering freight rates dispute. As for rapeseed prices, besides spill-over effects from the soybean market, improving crop conditions in Canada and ample old-crop supplies in the EU resulted in a fourth consecutive decline in June – even though price losses were contained by deteriorating crop prospects in parts of the EU. Sunflowerseed prices, on the other hand, remained close to their recent highs, supported by tight global fundamentals.

As for soybean meal (the commodity carrying the highest weight in FAO’s oilmeal price index), apart from following the downward trajectory of the soybean market, international prices responded to continuous strong crushing activities in the U.S. and Brazil as well as weaker demand, particularly in China.

With respect to vegetable oils, the drop in FAO’s price index mainly reflects lower quotations for palm, soybean and sunflower oil. In June, international palm oil prices fell to a two-and-a-half year low, notwithstanding prospective production slowdowns in Southeast Asia, tied to intensive replanting of aged oil palms. Main drivers behind the continued price weakness include i) lacklustre global export demand, ii) ample stocks carried by major producing countries, and iii) spill-over weakness from the soybean complex. As for soy oil, further stock accumulation at the global level kept international prices under downward pressure, whereas sunflower oil quotations dropped to multi-year lows on large old-crop supplies and improving (new-crop) production prospects in the EU and Ukraine.  

    

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.