Last Update: May 2012

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios (Mayo 2012- disponible sólo en inglés).

The month of April saw yet another conspicuous upward move in prices across the oilseed complex.

Compared to the previous month, the strongest gain is seen in the FAO price index for oilmeals which increased by almost 9%, while the indices for oilseeds and for oils/fats rose by respectively 6% and 2%. Compared to the 2008 and 2011 global price spikes, the meals index is now at par with the peak recorded in 2008 and only 7% short of the 2011 historic record. The oilseeds and oils/fats indices are also heading towards the peaks observed in recent years.

 With respect to oilseeds, renewed price strength reflects the tightness of global supply and demand in the 2011/12 season, which is characterized by a marked production deficit and a substantial decline in stocks. For the first time in years, production of the two major oilseeds, soy and rape, are declining at the same time. For soybeans, the severe South American drought continues to be the key driver: the magnitude of this season’s decline in soybean output is unprecedented. Furthermore, the EU’s 2011/12 rapeseed crop turned out well below previous expectations, which has raised dependence on Canadian and Australian supplies. Other elements supporting oilseed prices are strong Chinese import demand and the need for crop values to rise in order to stimulate 2012/13 oilcrop plantings, eventually meeting prospected further growth in global oil and meals demand.

 The marked jump in the meal index has been driven primarily by the pronounced rise in soy prices. Additional damage suffered by soybean crops in South America directly translated into rising soymeal quotations. The appreciation in prices is expected to lead to a slowdown in soymeal consumption – with demand partly shifting to alternative feedstuff – in a number of countries, notably in Europe, Asia and Africa. Fishmeal prices have also weighed on the index: the prospective sizeable decline in global fishmeal output (following significant reductions in Peru’s catch quotas), combined with strong Chinese demand, has pushed up prices – along with spillover strength from the soymeal market.

 The oils/fats index has risen in the wake of surging soybean prices and due to prospects of an exceptionally tight supply and demand balance for soy oil. As global export availabilities of soy oil shrink, dependence on palm oil is growing – but palm oil continues to face below-average production growth in Southeast Asia, which, combined with persistently strong export demand, is resulting in reduced inventory levels.