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Last Update: mayo 2017

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios

(disponible sólo en inglés).

In April, prices continued to trend downward across the oilcrop complex. Month-on-month,the FAO price indices for oilseeds, vegetable oils and oilmeals shed 6–7 points (or about 4 percent), marking a 13-month low in the caseof oilseeds and oilmeals, and a 9-month low for vegetable oils.
   
Global oilseed and oilmeal markets continued easing under the influence of prospective record soybean availabilities in the current season, as well as, possibly, in 2017/18. The confirmation of record-high yields led to higher 2016/17 production forecasts for Brazil – the world’s top soybean supplier. With the country’s output pegged at an unprecedented 111 million tonnes, global 2016/17 production is now expected to climb to 346 million tonnes – 8 percent above the 2014/15 record. Considering that global soybean consumption is anticipated to expand by about 6 percent, global inventories could rise to an unparalleled, burdensome 50 million tonnes (the equivalent of 1.8 month of global consumption). Soybean prices were also pressured by the release of the United States’ planting intention report, which indicated that farmers could significantly expand soybean sowings for the forthcoming 2017/18 crop. On the other hand, the decline in world prices has been trimmed by the following factors: reports of heavy rains hampering harvest progress in Argentina; robust buying interest (notably from China); and slower than usual new-crop sales by growers in Brazil and Argentina. Falling international quotations for rape and sunflower seed also contributed to the drop in the price index for oilseeds. While prices of both crops eased on spill-over effects from the soybean market, rapeseed values also reacted to forecasts of record 2017 sowings in Canada and improved 2017 production prospects in the EU. Furthermore, in the EU, reduced demand for rapeseed oil by the biodiesel industry curbed rapeseed crushing, weighing on prices. Sunflowerseed values, on the other hand, were influenced by the expectation of large 2017 crops in both the EU and Turkey.

With respect to oilmeals, in addition to mirroring the paths of the corresponding seeds, the retreat in prices was fueled by continued relatively weak import demand, which partly reflects growing competition from attractively priced feed grains and their by-products, notably DDGS.

As to vegetable oils, the third consecutive decrease in the index mostly reflects falling palm and soyoil values. In April, palm oil quotations dropped to their lowest level since July 2016, underpinned by a prospective rebound of production in Southeast Asia and weakening global import demand (although the forthcoming Ramadan festivities could stimulate imports again). Furthermore, palm oil inventories – while still unusually tight – recovered somewhat during April (in particular in Malaysia), hence alleviating supply concerns. Low soyoil prices also started weighing on palm oil, given the current unusually strong reliance of global vegetable oil markets on soybean oil. Prices of the latter retreated for the second consecutive month, driven by both developments in the soybean market and a slowdown in global soyoil demand.

Two recent policy initiatives have the potential to affect global vegetable oil markets. First, a resolution by the EU-Parliament calling for (i) a single certification scheme for sustainably produced palm oil, and (ii) the gradual phasing out of vegetable oils contributing to deforestation as biodiesel feedstock; and, second, the United States’ decision to conduct anti-dumping/subsidy investigations on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. Market participants are expected to follow both initiatives closely. 

  

 

 

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.