Last Update: mayo 2016
Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios
(disponible sólo en inglés).
The month of April saw a conspicuous upward move in prices across the oilseed complex. Compared to the previous month, the strongest gain occurred in the FAO price index for oilmeals, which increased by as much as 12 percent (17.4 points), reversing the downward trend that started in August 2015. The price indices for oilseeds and vegetable oils both rose by 7 points, or, respectively, 5 percent and 4 percent.
The oilseed price index strengthened under the lead of soybeans, mostly reflecting continued robust import demand, in particular by China, and recent crop developments in South America. Excessive rainfalls in the region have compromised yields and hampered harvest operations and logistics, especially in Argentina, but also in Brazil and Uruguay. Based on preliminary crop damage assessments, FAO’s overall production forecast for the region has been lowered by about 3 percent. As a result of these revisions, the 2015/16 global soybean output and carry-out stocks are now anticipated to fall short of last season’s level, underpinning the rise in international soybean prices to a nine-month high. Notwithstanding, world supplies are still forecast at a historical high in 2015/16, thanks to massive opening stocks. International soybean prices were also supported by buoyant international demand, with intensive export activities leading to inventory drawdowns in major exporting countries, notably Brazil. The drop in global rapeseed output in 2015/16 (following poor harvests in the EU and several other countries), along with first indications of a further decline in 2016/17, also resulted in firming rapeseed quotations, which further contributed to the rise in FAO’s oilseed price index.
The spike in the oilmeal price index was caused by a surge in international soymeal values, which leaped to 6-month highs on Argentina’s deteriorated production outlook. The country is the world’s principal supplier of soymeal, and lower than originally expected crushing may impact Argentina’s export performance in the coming weeks.
The further increase in the price index for vegetable oils was again driven by palm oil: in April, international quotations for the commodity firmed for the third consecutive month, reaching 17-month highs. Underpinning the upswing were concerns about falling inventory levels, as bleak 2016 production prospects in Southeast Asia (under the lagged effect of the dry weather conditions prevailing in 2015) coincide with a growing demand worldwide. At the same time, domestic consumption in Indonesia, the world’s leading palm oil supplier, is expected to be boosted by increased uptake by the local biodiesel industry, possibly causing an unprecedented contraction in the country’s exports this year. Adding to the upward pressure on prices are concerns that lasting adverse weather conditions in 2016 could compromise also the 2017 palm oil output in Southeast Asia. International prices of soy and rapeseed oil also firmed in April, sustained by the higher values of the corresponding seeds and influenced by developments in the palm oil market.