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Last Update: abril 2017

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios

(disponible sólo en inglés).

The month of March saw a weakening in international prices for oilseeds and derived products. The FAO price indices for oilseeds and oilmeals lost respectively 6.9 and 5.4 points, reversing the trend observed in the preceding months. But the strongest month-on-month decline occurred in FAO’s price index for vegetable oils, which dropped by 11 points (or 6 percent), falling for the second consecutive month. It is important to note, however, that all three indices continued to fare above the values recorded in the corresponding month of last year.

The drop in the prices index for oilseeds mainly reflects developments in the world soybean market. In March, the harvest forecast for South America’s soybean crops improved considerably, with exceptionally high yields expected in both Brazil and Argentina, as well as in Paraguay. As a result, global 2016/17 soybean output is now set to grow nearly 10 percent year-on-year (possibly exceeding the all-time 2014/15 record by 23 million tonnes) – while weak growth in import demand and global consumption are leading to a build-up in stocks. Reports of record-high prospective soy plantings for the United States’ 2017/18 crop also contributed to last month’s downward pressure on prices. International quotations for rapeseed and rapeseed meal also lost strength on both spillover effects from the soy market and higher than anticipated rapeseed availabilities, notably in India. Moreover, preliminary forecasts for 2017/18 point to a recovery in global rapeseed output – after four seasons of consecutive decline. Ample global sunflower seed availabilities also contributed to the drop in FAO’s oilseed price index.

As to oilmeals, ample global soymeal supplies relative to demand weighed on international meal prices. The discovery of tainted meat in Brazilian exports also pressured international meal prices. The news could affect Brazil’s meat consumption and import demand for Brazilian meat, possibly translating into a temporary slowdown in soymeal utilization.

With regard to vegetable oils, in March, FAO’s price index dropped to an 8-month low on both, price contractions in palm oil and weakening quotations for the leading seed-oils, which followed the path of the corresponding seeds. Despite persistently low stock levels, palm oil values dropped by almost 6 percent, reaching the lowest level since October 2016. Apart from tracking weakness in rival oils, palm oil prices retreated on prospective production increases in Southeast Asia (on the back of near-perfect weather as well as seasonal and cyclical factors), particularly in Indonesia. It should be noted, however, that, while palm oil production is expected to accelerate in the coming months, import demand continues to be slow, especially for Malaysian palm oil. India, the world’s top palm oil buyer, is likely to slow down its purchases, following bumper domestic rapeseed, soybean and groundnut crops.

  

 

 

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.