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Last Update: diciembre 2014

Comentario sobra la reciente evolución de los índices de precios

(disponible sólo en inglés).

In November, all three of FAO's price indices for the oilcrop complex rose, though the vegetable oil index remained almost unchanged. Month-on-month the indices for oilseeds and oilmeals gained, respectively, 6 and 10 points (or 4 to 5 percent), while the index for vegetable oils rose by 1 point (or less than 1 percent). Due to marked drops in prices for oilseeds and derived products earlier this year, all three indices continue to fare at multi-year lows, although the meals index remains at a historically high level.

Last month’s bounce in the oilseed and oilmeal indices was mainly driven by developments in the soybean and sunflower markets. International quotations for soy and soymeal strengthened in response to less favourable weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil, which caused planting delays in some regions, especially in Brazil’s Center-East. Furthermore, sustained global import demand – primarily from China – combined with reserved farmer selling in Argentina exerted pressure on exports from the United States, lending additional support to world prices. Sunflower seed quotations continued appreciating due to lower than initially forecast global production, mostly owing to production setbacks in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Some strengthening also occurred in rapeseed prices, reflecting a downward revision for Canada’s 2014 harvest – although prospective global availabilities in 2014/15 remain ample.

With respect to oilmeal markets, the prospect of tight global fishmeal availabilities also propelled oilmeal prices upward. In Peru, the world’s leading fishmeal producer, an unprecedented tightness in export supplies is probable as fishing bans are expected to remain in place until mid-December, while a sharp reduction in catch quotas seems likely for the period April–July 2015.  

As to vegetable oils, the FAO price index has risen by less than one percent, thus remaining well below the level recorded in November 2013. The small rise was mainly driven by an improvement in palm oil prices, following production slowdowns in Malaysia and Indonesia and steady global import demand. Quotations for sunflower oil remained firm on lower than anticipated global production. However, the following two factors prevented the index from appreciating further: first, continued weakness in soyoil prices due to abundant supply prospects in 2014/15; and second, the recent setbacks in crude oil prices, which tend to reduce demand for vegetable oils as biofuel feedstock.

Components of the oilseeds price index: Soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; Rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; Linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; Sunseed, EU, cif Rotterdam (please note that sunseed has been added to the index only in January 1976).

Components of the oils/fats price index: Soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; Sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; Groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; Cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; Coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; Palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; Linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.

Components of the meals/cakes price index: Soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; Rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; Copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; Palmkernel  exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.