Trade and markets
 

Global food production under climate change and increased supply variability: Implications for trade policy and food security

5-6 November 2013, FAO Headquarters

The consultation featured top experts in biophysical and economic modeling on climate change who reported on their latest research on climate change impacts on future agricultural/food supply shifts at global and regional levels. The consultation also discussed proposed recommendations for knowledge dissemination and policy dialogue on food security under climate change.

Session 1: Biophysical assessment models on climate change impact on agricultural productivity

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Global analysis using crop modelling and agro-ecological databases to assess global food production trends, Günther Fischer, IIASA, Vienna

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The Global Gridded Crop Model Initiative - approaches, insights and caveats of modelling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale, Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and AgMIP and Joshua Elliott, University of Chicago, USA

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Robust negative yield impacts under weather and climate change and implications for food production trends: with application to Africa, Wolfram Schlenker, Columbia University, USA

 

Session 2: Bioeconomic models – Climate change and global and regional food system trends

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Role of international trade and trade policy reforms under a changing climate: Insights from global economic modelling, Helal Ahammad, ABARES, Australia

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Climate Change Impacts on African Agriculture: Alternative Scenarios for Growth
Timothy S. Thomas and Mark W. Rosegrant, IFPRI

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Global Rice Market and Food Security in Asia
Ching-Cheng Chang, Institute of Economics, Taiwan

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Global climate change, food supply and livestock production systems: A bioeconomic analysis
Petr Havlik, IIASA, Vienna

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Grain production trends in Russia-Ukraine-Central Asia Context of the Global Climate Variability and Change, Elena Lioubimtseva, Grand Valley State University, USA

 

 

Session 3: Uncertainty, variability in expected climate change impacts

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Climate change impacts on global food security, Tim Wheeler, Reading University, UK

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Uncertainties in modelling climate-induced variations in crop production - with focus on European-led efforts of model improvement (FACCE MACSUR), Reimund Rötter, MTT Agrifood Research Finland/MACSUR

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Uncertainty in Bioeconomic models – Magnitude and Sources of uncertainty in AgMip group of bioeconomic models, Martin Von Lampe, OECD/AgMIP

 

 

Session 4: Climate change and trade policy

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Potential trade impacts of climate change developments and related standards and measures
Vesile Kulaçoglu, Director, WTO Trade and Environment Division

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Climate change and trade – required adjustments to trade policies in the short and long run
Will Martin, World Bank

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Climate-related trade policies and implications for agricultural trade with developing countries
Jonathan Hepburn, ICTSD

Documents