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The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015-16

‌Trade and food security: achieving a better balance between national priorities and the collective good

This edition of The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets aims to reduce the current polarization of views on the impacts of agricultural trade on food security and on the manner in which agricultural trade should be governed to ensure that increased trade openness is beneficial to all countries. By providing evidence and clarity on a range of topics, the report seeks to contribute to a more informed debate on policy choices and to identify required improvements in the policy processes within which these choices are made.

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
Special focus: Sub-Saharan Africa
The 2016 edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides an assessment of the mediumterm prospects of global agriculture. The report highlights that for the sector to meet the expanding demand for food, feed and raw products for industrial uses, significant production growth is needed.

Agricultural Trade Policies in the Post-Soviet Countries 2014/15: A Summary
The document is based on the publication Review of Agricultural Trade Policies in post-Soviet countries 2014-15. In the 2013-2014 period, most countries in the region registered a negative foreign trade balance in agrifood products (HS codes 1-24). The largest deficit in this product category was recorded in the Russian Federation, which had an average annual deficit over the two years of USD 23.9 billion.

Report of the Working Group on Climate Change of the FAO Intergovernmental Group on Tea
This compilation of adaptation strategies for tea cultivation developed and practiced by major tea growing countries of the world, is the first step taken by the working group on climate change of the FAO-IGG on tea to minimize climate change impacts on tea plantations. It is a joint effort by the scientists of Tea Research Institute of India, Sri Lanka, Kenya and China supported by the FAO-IGG on tea in Rome.

Home country measures that promote responsible foreign agricultural investment: Evidence from selected OECD countries
This paper summarizes the good practices by nine selected OECD countries that seek to promote responsible foreign investment in developing country agriculture, primarily by investors in their territory or jurisdiction. The study provides examples of the increasing trend of home countries in establishing binding legal norms and other mechanisms as safeguards that are relevant for agricultural investment.

Medium-term prospects for raw materials, horticulture and tropical products
This publication puts the focus on a set of selected Raw materials, Horticulture and Tropical (RAMHOT) Products, namely sugar, tea, banana, tropical fruits, citrus products, Jute, and hard fibres. A medium-term outlook is generated for each of these products, and an analysis is undertaken to assess underlying market drivers and the factors likely to shape market performance over the next 10 years.

Ecuador’s Banana Sector under Climate Change: An economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
This study is an integrated assessment of climate impacts on the banana value chain in support of the Ecuador initiatives towards sustainable and climate-adapted strategies. Evidence was generated on: (i) banana suitability under climate change in Ecuador and other banana producing countries; (ii) climate impacts on yields and potential diseases incidence for bananas in Ecuador; (iii) carbon footprint and greenhouse gas emissions from production to consumption, including transportation and waste disposal.

How does agricultural trade impact food security?
The links between trade and food security are inherently complex, with several channels of interaction affecting the different dimensions of food security simultaneously. In essence, trade, influenced by the economic context and sectoral composition of growth, directly affects key domestic variables like food production, prices, employment and government revenues.

Policy brief | Trade and related policies for decent rural employment
The agriculture sector accounts for the majority of employment and output in most developing countries. Trade in agricultural products has the potential to significantly impact rural employment, incomes and poverty, by affecting the availability and price of food, as well as wages in this sector. 

Policy brief | Agricultural trade and decent rural employment
Agriculture is the largest employer of the world’s poor, most of whom live in rural areas. As developing economies grow, and undergo structural transformation, employment tends to shift away from agriculture into other sectors, such as industry or services.

Citrus fruits statistics 2015
This is the 2015 edition of the annual compilation of statistics related to the international production, trade, and processing into juice of citrus fruits with grower and wholesale prices. The fruits covered are oranges, tangerines, lemons, limes and grapefruit. The statistics are disaggregated by fruit, by year, by region and by country from 1981/2 to 2013/14.

Jute, Kenaf, Sisal, Abaca, Coir and Allied Fibres Statistics, December 2015
Information relating to the production, marketing, trade and consumption of jute, kenaf and allied fibres are tabulated and presented in this bulletin. This information is used by the IGG Secretariat to analyze national policies and their international effects as well as supply and demand position and its probable development in the short and medium terms.

World Statistical Compendium for Raw Hides and Skins, Leather and Leather Footwear 1999-2015
This document is the seventeenth edition of the World Statistical Compendium, the first issue of which was published in 1980. The present edition, prepared in response to the ever growing demand for coherent statistical data in the hides, skins and derived products sector, contains up-dated figures up to 2015. 

Review of Agricultural Trade Policies in former Soviet Union countries 2014-15 [available in Russian only]
This publication has been prepared as part of the FAO Regional initiatives in Europe and Central Asia "Development of agricultural trade and market integration in Europe and in Central Asia.

Analysis of the size and distribution of the impacts of agricultural trade at the firm and industry levels in developing countries
The main purpose of the studies compiled in this report was to analyse the size and distribution of trade impacts among heterogeneous agrotrading firms in developing countries, with special attention given to the role of the organization and behaviour of these firms.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024‌
The Agricultural Outlook, 2015-2024, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.

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Executive Summary
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Kenya's Tea Sector under Climate Change: An impact assessment and formulation of a climate-smart strategy
Changing weather patterns in Kenya are increasingly being experienced within agricultural systems, including by farmers. In Kenya, there is particular concern with regard to the effects of climate change on tea – an extremely important sector for the economy. Tea producers already are facing reduced and erratic rainfall, a higher rate of hail or frost and rising temperatures that heavily affect yields and productivity levels. Over 500 000 smallholder tea producers are facing increased uncertainty about their livelihoods in the future. The challenge of climate change is raising concern at the policy level over the long-term viability of the tea value chain.

Climate Change and Food Systems: Global assessments and implications for food security and trade
This book collects the findings of a group of scientists and economists who have taken stock of climate change impacts on food and agriculture at global and regional levels over the past two decades. 

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World tea production and trade: Current and future development
This document constitutes an overview of the current production and trade situation for tea, as well as medium term projections to 2023.

Implications of Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) on tea trade
This document summarises current regulations and trade, and examines the MRL-trade interaction of China, a major tea exporting country. The document also addresses the welfare implications on consumers and producers.

Socio-economic implications of climate change for tea producing countries
Tea plays a significant role in rural development, poverty reduction and food security in developing countries and is one of the most important cash crops in the world. Climate change impacts greatly on tea growth and production as tea is mainly grown under rain-fed mono-cropping systems and weather conditions determine optimal growth. 

Contribution of tea production and exports to food security, rural development and smallholder welfare in selected producing countries
In the case of tea, production and exports generate foreign exchange and employment and provide a material base for national economic growth. In particular, they make significant contributions to food security by helping to cover food import bills.

Russia’s restrictions on imports of agricultural and food products: An initial assessment
On 7 August 2014 Russia announced a ban on food imports from Western countries which, in an earlier move, had imposed sanctions on Russian business interests in connection with the crisis in eastern Ukraine. 

Policy responses to high food prices in Latin America and the Caribbean: Country case studies
This publication presents evidence on the effectiveness of policies and programmes introduced in response to rising food prices in eight Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru.

Countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States: Agricultural policy issues in the context of the World Trade Organization
This report examines the experience and main issues of twelve of these countries in the context of the rules and commitments in agriculture under the World Trade Organization (WTO). ENGLISH |  RUSSIAN

Import surges and the Special Safeguard Mechanism revisited
This Technical Note revisits the analysis presented in Technical Note No. 9, updating data used in the identification of Import Surges to 2013 to capture recent changes in the global market context of higher and more volatile food prices and significant increases in volumes of imports to food deficit developing countries

Smallholder participation in the tropical superfruits value chain: ensuring equitable share of the success to enhance their livelihood
The production and trade of tropical fruits generate income, improving the livelihoods and food security of producers, who are almost exclusively smallholders in developing countries.

The Bali Package – implications for trade and food security
This brief provides a concise explanation of the Bali package focusing on those elements which have direct implications for trade and related policies directed at improved food security. It also considers potential implications of trade and market policies more broadly for food security.

Banana market review and banana statistics 2012-2013
This report is issued on an annual basis to Members and Observers of the Sub-Group on Bananas of the Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits. It brings together the information available to FAO, supplemented by data obtained from other sources, in particular with regard to preliminary estimates. 

The changing role of multinational companies in the global banana trade
On 10 March 2014, Chiquita, the largest banana trading company in the world, and Fyffes, one of the main suppliers to the European market, announced a merger, making the new company ChiquitaFyffes, an undisputed leader in the banana market.

Rebuilding West Africa’s Food Potential: Policies and private initiatives to promote smallholder-inclusive food value chains
This book contains a large number of in-depth case studies of food value chains, including traditional export commodities (cocoa, cotton), high value exports (mangoes, horticulture) and the most important staple food value chains in the region.

Food Security in Africa: Market and Trade Policy for Staple Foods in Eastern and Southern Africa
Drawing on insights from theoretical applications, empirically based approaches and case study experience, this book contributes to the improved design and use of trade and related policy interventions in staple food markets.

G-33 proposal: early agreement on elements of the draft Doha accord to address food security
Some developing countries have proposed that WTO rules should be changed to allow them more flexibility to purchase food at subsidized prices under public stockholding or domestic food aid programmes. This short information note, published jointly by ICTSD and the FAO, looks at how rules, policies and practices in this area can affect trade and food security, in the run-up to the global trade body’s ninth ministerial conference this December

Smallholder integration in changing food markets
A key message of this report is that without better understanding the determinants of smallholders’ participation in agricultural markets, and formulating appropriate measures to facilitate improved participation, initiatives seeking to promote the adoption of productivity enhancing technology by smallholder producers are likely to have limited success

Facilitating exports of agricultural products from developing countries