Conference organized by SIDA
(Swedish International Development Agency)

Climate change, food security and poverty reduction

Ensuring food security by adapting to climate change

Stockholm, 27-28 September 2007

Ladies and Gentlemen,It is an honour and a privilege for me to address you today on the impact of climate change on food security.

Climate change is now undeniable. But what effects will it have on food security? How might it compromise food security? And what can we do about it?

FAO's 2006 report on the State of Food Insecurity in the World indicated that there were still 854 million undernourished people, including 820 million in the developing countries.

In these countries, the proportion of persons suffering hunger has fallen during the last ten years, in spite of population growth. In 1990, 20 percent of the population of the developing countries were undernourished. This proportion now stands at 17 percent. And according to FAO projections, we can still make significant progress and achieve the 10 percent target set for 2015 by the Millennium Summit, regardless of current difficulties.

But this general trend obviously conceals broad differences between continents. The regions of Asia and the Pacific and of Latin America and the Caribbean have recorded an overall reduction in undernourished population, in both absolute and percentage terms. But at the same time the situation in Africa, especially sub‑Sahara Africa, has worsened, even though some individual countries have made real gains. Africa now has 40 million more undernourished people than in 1990.

But all our collective efforts to combat hunger risk being further compromised by climate change. Dramatic evidence lies in the current floods in Africa, the July and August floods in South Asia and the recent hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean. In the last two months, floods have devastated 12 countries of West Africa affecting some 600 000 people. These countries have seen their permanent crops washed away and seed stocks destroyed.

In South and Southeast Asia, torrential rains and floods have ravaged the agricultural sector and damaged rural livelihoods. In Bangladesh alone, some 13 million people have been affected by the flooding and 500 000 hectares of cultivated land have been flooded. Small farmers have lost their rice and jute harvests, as well as their livestock. The needs of the agricultural sector are still to be confirmed, but initial estimates for overall livelihoods assistance (including agricultural livelihoods) are put at 22 million US dollars.

In Nicaragua, an estimated 198 000 people were affected by the recent hurricane Felix, with estimated 47 000 hectares of agricultural crops destroyed and more than 5 000 livestock dead, while further assessments are ongoing.

If we want to feed 9 billion people in 2050, we need to adopt appropriate strategies and we need to start now.

Changes in temperature have long‑term consequences on the viability and productivity of agricultural systems. Floods, storms and droughts have an important local impact, but this impact is short term on the global level. These two phenomena will intensify under global warming and will reshape the map of agro‑ecosystems, with serious consequences for agricultural production.

Natural resources, fisheries and forests will also be affected by climate change. The most vulnerable sector will be rainfed agriculture, the mainstay of food production in many countries.

While the expected increase in average world temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees could lead to productivity gains in the industrialized countries, potential production levels could decrease in the lower-latitude regions, the sub‑humid semi‑arid regions where rainfed agriculture is the norm.

Cereal production in many developing countries may decline by 5 percent by 2020. India could lose 18 percent of its current cereal harvest. Altogether, 11 percent of cropland in the developing countries could be affected, with a consequent drop in cereal production in more than 65 countries now accounting for half the world's population.

All the studies agree: global warming will have a more adverse impact on the poorer countries. Their vulnerability to climate change is higher and their capacity for adaptation is lower, because they lack resources and technology. As they are often unable to import enough food to cover all their needs, there is a greater risk of chronic food insecurity.

The undernourishment of large proportions of the population undermines the very objectives of economic and social development. It compromises the production potential of individuals and prevents them from breaking out of poverty. Hunger is not only a consequence, it is also a cause of poverty.

Climate warming could heighten the vulnerability of the most deprived members of society. Its impact is geographically unequal and socially unjust. Its principal victims will be the poorest rural households that live on marginal land and are confronted with soil degradation and desertification. These small farmers depend mainly on rainfall for their crops. The risk of destitution or malnutrition is immense for these rural poor, whose incomes depend entirely on agricultural activity.

According to the findings of the latest report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Africa is the continent at greatest risk from potential change in climate, mainly because of its huge agricultural population and its almost exclusive dependence on rainfed agriculture. The report also estimates that it has very weak capacity for adjustment. The Sahel and southern and eastern Africa will be the most affected. In some African countries, harvests could decline by more than 50 percent by 2020, even by 90 percent by 2100. Africa's food security will be seriously imperilled with an additional 80 to 200 million hungry people by 2080.

Water will be a central food‑related and geopolitical concern. Population growth in the next decades coupled with economic development will increase the demand for water. The already heavy pressure on this resource risks becoming critical. There is reason to fear that increased competition for water in transboundary river basins could fuel conflicts between riparian states. Water shortages of deprived agricultural populations also drive migration to urban areas and industrialized countries. The process of rapid urbanization, with 60 percent of developing country populations living in urban areas by 2030, is a new challenge for food security.

Food depends on water and the greatest consumer of water is agriculture, accounting for 70 percent of the total. The impact of climate change on water resources will be complex and uncertain, with excess on the one hand and shortage on the other. Two‑thirds of the world's population could be living in areas affected by water shortages.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

We cannot allow such trends to materialize.

We must of course continue to address the causes of global warming, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But if we want to meet the challenge of food security for an extra 2.5 billion inhabitants in 2050, we must act now and put appropriate strategies in place.

FAO is working with the scientific community in tracking current and long‑term climate change. It is actively involved in implementing the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In collaboration with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), FAO has developed the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) methodology, analysing the planet's soils in relation to climate, thus enabling it to quantify and anticipate the impacts of climate change and its repercussions on food security, for each zone and region.

At rural community level, FAO is focusing on building the capacity of food production systems to adapt. The aim is to raise the efficiency and flexibility of agricultural practices in the face of higher water stress.

But the priority for effective action against the impact of climate change is investment in harnessing water and using it wisely. FAO thus advocates:

	In the short term, the implementation of inexpensive small projects that can be easily maintained at village level in order to reach out to all rural communities.
	In the medium term, the rehabilitation of existing major irrigation schemes that often function well below capacity.
	In the long term, the development of large transnational river basins.

Bioenergies have also sprung into the recent debate. Will they have a role to play in combating hunger and assuring food security? The bioenergy sector is in full development in many countries, including China, India and South Africa. There is no doubt that growing more crops for biofuels will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but by reducing world food supply, they could also raise agricultural prices at the expense of the poorer importing countries. The greatest risk is that plant production for biofuels will compete directly with food production, especially where land pressure is acute. We need to look beyond transport and not lose sight of our universal priority, which is food security. Food is our primary energy, without which nothing else is possible.

The issue is therefore complex and requires in‑depth examination, which is why FAO has set up a multidisciplinary research group. The biofuels sector could represent an opportunity for developing countries, on condition that the transition is carefully managed and that the environment and food security are taken into account. The overriding challenge is for small farmers to be able to enter and benefit from this new market.

FAO is encouraging an approach of adaptation of rural communities, with farmer training, access to credit, investment in the rural economy and support to institutions.If they are carefully planned and formulated, all these strategies could reduce the risk of food insecurity and have a positive impact on the environment.

Ladies and Gentlemen, those are some elements of reflection on the complex linkages of food security and climate change.

Humanity must learn to live with climate change. But we cannot allow climate change to become one more aggravating factor for hunger in the world, one more dividing factor between the rich countries and the poor countries.

It is our duty to help the poorer countries and, in those countries, the more vulnerable populations at risk, to deal with this new challenge.

Thank you for your attention.

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