Monitoring progress towards hunger reduction goals

In the last decade some progress has been made in reducing the developing world's undernourished population, both in absolute numbers (with a decline of approximately 40 million) and as a proportion of the total population (falling from 20 to 17 percent).

However, progress has been very uneven from country to country. While the total number of undernourished has declined, the majority of countries have seen their numbers rise. As many readers will doubtless point out, the primary interest should not be aggregate statistical indicators. What really matters is the action being taken to reduce food deprivation and poverty at the country level.

How is this problem perceived in each of these countries? Is there a manifest national commitment to deal with the problem as an urgent priority? Is it possible to know whether national leaders take this issue seriously? There are certain indicators that can help us gauge a nation's response to food insecurity.

First, let us start with the numbers of undernourished as estimated by FAO. How are these numbers perceived at the country level? Is the estimate thought to be too high and, if so, on what basis? It is always encouraging, as well as useful, when countries put forward alternative figures that have stronger empirical foundations, since this demonstrates that they are grappling with the problem.

Next, if the FAO estimate (or an alternative) is plausible, who are the people who are undernourished and where in the country do they live? Does the country concerned know about its poor and hungry? Does it characterize them in terms of livelihoods, environment and any special risks they face, such as drought or disease? Does it know why these groups suffer from chronic food deprivation? Is it willing to construct an operationally useful set of vulnerability profiles?

Finally, what resources are being used to treat both the symptoms and the more fundamental causes of undernourishment and poverty? Is food aid available? Are there other safety net programmes, including mechanisms that provide cash assistance? Are long-term research and development efforts under way to increase and sustain the productivity of the natural resource base? Are educational programmes in place to improve health and hygiene practices? Are these investments adequate to bring an end to the problems faced? If not, what additional resources can be mobilized and is the country taking action to mobilize them? How can local communities contribute to filling the "resource gap" and is government (and the international community) supporting their efforts?

The aim of these questions is to assess a country's commitment to overcoming hunger and deprivation. What each country actually needs to do will depend on specific national circumstances. As has been said in past years, there is no single formula to follow. The examples of "taking action" in The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2001 have covered a variety of interventions that can have a significant impact. These interventions show how much can be done, if the political will and the resources are there. They also show that eliminating hunger is not just a moral imperative; it also makes economic sense - increasing productivity, raising incomes, creating jobs and adding to the demand for goods and services throughout the economy.

FAO continues to believe that the goal of halving the number of undernourished people in the world by 2015 can be achieved, if countries and their development partners make this their objective. It has become clear, however, that the resources needed to accomplish this task are not being made available when and where they are most needed. In some cases, this is because countries are in the midst of a civil war, which dramatically increases the number of the hungry and effectively blocks all but minimal assistance. In other cases, external partners have refrained from doing all they might, because of past corruption and misuse of resources in recipient countries.

Reductions in undernourishment over the past decade

FAO's latest estimates indicate that, in 1997-99, there were 815 million undernourished people in the world: 777 million in the developing countries, 27 million in transition countries and 11 million in the industrialized countries.

For the developing countries, the latest figure represents a decrease of 39 million since 1990-92 (the benchmark period used at the World Food Summit), for which the revised figure is 816 million undernourished. This means that the average annual decrease now stands at about 6 million people.

Clearly, there has been a slowdown in the reduction of undernourished in the world. As a consequence, to achieve the World Food Summit goal of halving the number of undernourished in developing countries by 2015, the average annual decrease required is no longer 20 million but 22 million - well above the current level of performance.

The overall decline in the number of undernourished in the developing regions hides contrasting trends in different countries: only 32 of the 99 developing countries studied recorded a decrease in their numbers of undernourished between 1990-92 and 1997-99. The total reduction achieved by this group amounted to 116 million people. This compares with a total increase of 77 million recorded for the countries in which the number of undernourished rose. Because the first group includes several large countries, such as China, Indonesia and Thailand in Asia and Nigeria in Africa, the total reduction achieved outweighed the total increase in the second, numerically larger group of countries. Hence the net reduction of 39 million.

Thus, the number of undernourished has increased considerably in the majority of developing countries, despite a widespread reduction in the prevalence of undernourishment (proportion of undernourished in total population). In the case of many African countries, the proportion of undernourished was very high in 1990-92 and, even in the case of improvements such as in Chad, Mozambique, Malawi and Angola, the proportion remained high in 1997-99. Because of their high population growth rates (3.2 percent per annum), countries like Mozambique and Angola did not manage to reduce their number of undernourished significantly, despite the reduction of prevalence of undernourishment. This underscores the role of high population growth in curbing reductions in the number of undernourished.