Simulation model of world banana trade
The Commodities and Trade Division of FAO carries out analytical studies of commodity markets, including projections of demand and supply. The latest FAO medium-term projections for world banana trade until 2010 were presented at the Third Session of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG) on Bananas and Tropical Fruits held in Puerto de la Cruz, Spain, 22-26 March 2004. These were based on a partial equilibrium model of the world banana trade built in early 2002. It assumed parity between the dollar and euro, and could not include new EU accession countries because they were not yet known. It also required assumptions regarding the EU import regime in 2006, which is due to change from the current tariff-rate quota (TRQ) to a tariff-only.
At the request of the IGG, a new partial equilibrium model was developed. This includes those countries that joined the EU in May 2004, provides for exchange rates variation, better describes dynamic demand and supply responses and has a more recent baseline. As with any model, the specification and parameter estimates are reviewed and updated regularly in line with market and policy developments. A first version of the revised model (its architecture, parameters and some preliminary results) was presented at an informal expert consultation in FAO Headquarters in October 2004. Its preliminary results reinforced the argument that there may not be a single tariff that would maintain the status quo for the majority of the stakeholders.
The model is written in Excel, and can be downloaded from the links provided on the right side of the screen. A text that accompanies the model explains its architecture, describes the parameters used, its assumptions and limitations, and presents some preliminary results illustrating its robustness to changes in parameter values. This research paper was prepared by the Commodities and Trade Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for discussion. It is a working document and does not reflect the opinion of FAO or its member governments. Comments should be addressed to the Secretariat, Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of the frontiers or boundaries.
Comments received from interested persons or institutions are available on the right hand side of this page. These are posted as received, unedited and without technical review. The views expressed in these comments are those of the authors only. Posting them on this website does not imply any endorsement on the part of FAO.
Additional comments are welcome and should be sent to:
Secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits
Commodities and Trade Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Fax: (+39) 0657054495
e-mail: Secretariat-IGGBATF@fao.org
This research paper was prepared by the Commodities and Trade Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for discussion. It is a working document and does not reflect the opinion of FAO or its member governments. Comments should be addressed to the Secretariat, Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits.
