Countries No. 11. The extent and impact of import surges in Honduras: the case of rice
In Honduras over the period 1991 to 2005 two different import surges occurred. The first one was short lived, one year in 1991.
The second one was prolonged, starting around 1995 and extending until 2001. The causes of the surges were largely domestic, although a fall in world rice prices appears to have played a role, particularly during 2000-2003. The surge of 1991 can be explained by major changes in three areas of domestic policy: the deregulation of the marketing board and liberalization of the import system. The second surge was caused mainly by changes in the import policy, although the drop in world prices and shortfalls in production cannot be ruled out as a contributing cause. Producers were unable to benefit from growing domestic markets, and they lost market share. However, in recent years it appears that competitiveness has increased. Injury caused by the surge of 1991 is estimated at farm level on the basis of reduced profits and decreases in planted areas, but lack of data did not make it possible to estimate the damage of the second surge. A spatial redistribution of the milling industry and economies of scale appear to be at work during the latter years of the second surge. The surveillance of the rice market is undertaken through joint monitoring by government institutions, and well organized farmers and millers' associations.
