EST Publication List
Publications of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. (From 1 January 2007 the name of the FAO Commodities and Trade Division has been changed to Trade and Markets Division.) [ more... ]

State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2009
High food prices and the food crisis – Experiences and lessons learned [ more... ]

State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2006
Developing countries, agricultural trade and the Doha Round [ more... ]

State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2004
The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2004 is the first issue of a new biennial publication that is intended to expand FAO's existing series of "The State of ?" reports. While the findings and conclusions presented rely on technical analysis by FAO commodity and trade specialists, this is not a technical report. Rather, it aims to present commodity market issues in an objective, transparent and accessible way to the attention of a wider public, including policy-makers, commodity market observers and all those interested in commodity market developments and their impact on developing countries. [ more... ]

Commodity Market Review 2007-2008
The biennial publication Commodity Market Review (CMR) analyses important agricultural commodity market developments likely to have significant implications for FAO member countries, both developed and developing. This issue of the Review is devoted to exploring in depth a variety of issues related to global agricultural commodity value chains. Value chains have become more complex as production and processing activities turn out to be increasingly fragmented. Moreover, concentration and the prospective of market power, as well as the emergent scope of food standards add to this complexity. This issue includes articles that focus on both cross-commodity issues, such as strategic trade, foreign direct investment and the effectiveness of technical regulation, as well as on characteristics of individual commodity value chains, such as coffee, cocoa and frozen concentrated orange juice, which are of particular interest in terms of industrial organization. [ more... ]

Commodity Market Review 2005-2006
The biennial publication Commodity Market Review (CMR) analyses important agricultural commodity market developments likely to have significant implications for FAO member countries, both developed and developing. This issue of the Review addresses particularly one of the problem areas in the current Doha Round of trade negotiations, the special treatment sought by some countries for the so-called sensitive and special agricultural products. It includes articles which deal with cross-commodity issues, such as criteria for special products and appropriate rules for special safeguards, and with particularities of individual commodities, such as rice, sugar, dairy and others that are regarded as sensitive or special for particular countries. [ more... ]

Commodity Market Review 2003-2004
The present issue of the Commodity Market Review (CMR) marks a significant departure from past issues of the same named FAO publication. In the past the main focus of the CMR was a review of developments in agricultural commodity markets, a description of the current situation, and a short term outlook for these commodities. The CMR 2001-2002 departed somewhat from this format, by including some short analytical articles that tried to explain in more detail the factors that shape commodity market developments. [ more... ]

Commodity Market Review 2001-2002
This edition includes five analytical articles which look beyond the current situation and outlook to explain in more detail and explain some of the implications of factors which shape commodity market developments and topical policy issues. [ more... ]

Trade Reforms and Food Security. Country Case Studies and Synthesis. Edited by Harmon Thomas
Between 1999 and 2002 FAO undertook a series of 23 country case studies to evaluate the impact of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) on agricultural trade and food security in developing countries. [ more... ]

WTO Rules for Agriculture Compatible with Development. Edited by Jamie Morrison and Alexander Sarris
The purpose of this book is to make a contribution towards understanding how WTO trade rules relevant to agriculture can be structured in a manner compatible with the development and poverty alleviation objectives of developing countries. [ more... ]

Rethinking agricultural input subsidy programmes in a changing world (Draft FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper)
Recent years have seen a resurgent interest in large scale input subsidies, and particularly fertilizer subsidies, in agricultural development and food security policies in Africa. [ more... ]

Value-adding standards in the North American food market. Trade opportunities in certified products for developing countries. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 11
This publication analyses the use of voluntary standards and certification schemes in the food markets of the United States and Canada. With its large population and its high individual purchasing power, North America provides considerable opportunities for exports of value added agricultural products. Consumers are increasingly attentive to the social, economic, and environmental aspects of food production as evidenced by the significant expansion of certified food sales in both natural food stores and mainstream supermarket chains. North America ranks just behind Europe, the world leading region in terms of certified food sales. [ more... ]

Rural household vulnerability and insurance against commodity risks: evidence from the United Republic of Tanzania by Alexander Sarris and Luc Christiaensen. Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 10.
This report assesses the nature and the extent of vulnerability among rural households in Tanzania, and the potential role for market based insurance schemes. [ more... ]

Agriculture and poverty in commodity dependent African countries: a rural household perspective from the United Republic of Tanzania by Alexander Sarris, Sara Savastano and Luc Christiaensen. Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 9.
This report explores how farm productivity affects poverty, and how various factor market constraints affect farm productivity. The empirical analysis draws on representative surveys of farm households in Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash crop growing regions in Tanzania. Poorer households were found not only to possess fewer assets, but also to be much less productive. Findings show that agricultural productivity directly affects household consumption and hence overall poverty and welfare. Stochastic production frontier analysis indicates that many farmers are farming well below best practice in the region. Holding inputs constant, they attain on average only 60 percent of the output obtained by their best counterparts. [ more... ]

The agricultural dimension of the ACP-EU Economic Partnership Agreements. Edited by Suffyan Koroma and J.R. Deep Ford. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 8.
The African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries are facing several major sets of closely interlinked forces that are likely to have significant impact on the development of their agriculture (including fisheries) sectors and their food security situation. [ more... ]

Small island developing states. Agricultural production and trade, preferences and policy. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 7.
This report is meant to contribute to the continuing debate related to small states and their agriculture sectors in the multilateral trade framework. It looks at the specific challenges faced by small states and the importance of non-reciprocal preferences. [ more... ]

Production and export of organic fruit and vegetables in Asia. Pascal Liu. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 6.
This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions that took place during the International Seminar on Producing and Exporting Organic Fruit and Vegetables in Asia that was held in Bangkok, Thailand, in November 2003. It describes the market situation and outlook for organic horticultural products, the opportunities offered by the main import markets (North America, the European Union and Japan) and their import requirements. [ more... ]

Voluntary standards and certification for environmentally and socially responsible agricultural production and trade. Pascal Liu, Mikkel Andersen, Catherine Pazderka. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 5.
This publication is a summary of the presentations and discussions that took place during the meeting on "Voluntary standards and certification for environmentally and socially responsible agricultural production and trade" organized by FAO in April 2004. It presents the situation of the main import markets for certified products and the evolution of demand. Case studies aimed at comparing sustainable farming methods with conventional methods are presented. [ more... ]

The Market for Non Traditional Agricultural Exports. David Hallam, Gill Lavers, Pascal Liu, Paul Pilkauskas, George Rapsomanikis, Julie Claro. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 3.
The last decade has witnessed a steady decline in the dollar values of many of the traditional agricultural export crops (TAEs) from developing countries and has highlighted the risks of depending upon a very narrow export base for foreign exchange earnings. Breaking the dependence upon the traditional primary commodities and diversifying into higher value or added value exports is not easy. [ more... ]

Environmental and Social Standards, Certification and Labelling for Cash Crops. Cora Dankers, Pascal Liu. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical Paper No. 2.
A variety of voluntary social and environmental standards and certification programmes in agriculture have appeared during the past twenty years. [ more... ]

Policies for Basic Food Commodities: 2003-2004
This third review of policies for basic food commodities reports the principal policy developments implemented in 2003 and 2004 in production, consumption, marketing and trade of cereals, oilseeds and livestock products. The information has been obtained through policy questionnaires, official and unofficial sources. As in the previous two reports, the main purpose of the issue is to provide a brief description of the most important policy measures introduced by governments during the period under review, rather than to draw their market implications. As a result, the publication mainly lends itself to being a reference text for consultation and historical memory. [ more... ]

Proceedings of the FAO Rice Conference 2004. Rice in global markets.
To celebrate the International Year of Rice, FAO convened an international rice conference in Rome on 12-13 February 2004. This publication draws together all the presentations on the theme of rice in global markets at that Conference. [ more... ]

Governance, Coordination, and Distribution along Commodity Value Chains
An FAO Commodities and Trade Division workshop, April 4 and 5, 2006, Rome. [ more... ]

Can supply management halt the decline in agricultural commodity prices? FAO Commodity Market Brief No. 1
The long-term downward trend and variability in agricultural commodity prices pose problems for the agricultural sector and the macroeconomy of commoditydependent developing countries. Declining real commodity prices are seen as the result of the tendency for supplies to increase ahead of demand. This has led to interest in the scope for supply control agreements among producing countries to influence prices, similar to the international commodity agreements of the past. While an agreement among producing countries to restrict supplies may raise commodity prices, the difficulty is to design workable supply management mechanisms and to maintain the commitment of the parties to such agreements. [ more... ]

Countries No. 12. Insights on rice, poultry and sugar imports into Côte d'Ivoire
In Côte d'Ivoire import surges were related mainly to the process of trade reforms and domestic market liberalization. Annual import data reveal that import surges have been relatively frequent for poultry and rice but less so for sugar. [ more... ]

Countries No. 11. The extent and impact of import surges in Honduras: the case of rice
In Honduras over the period 1991 to 2005 two different import surges occurred. The first one was short lived, one year in 1991. [ more... ]

Countries No. 10. Mozambique: poultry meat
Mozambique customs statistics, only available in value terms, indicate that poultry meat imports rose suddenly over the 2001-2004 period, from less than one million to over five million US dollars by 2005. [ more... ]

Countries No. 9. Philippines:onions and tobacco
The Safeguard Measures Act of the Philippines in 2000 enables the Government to implement safeguard provisions under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). [ more... ]

Countries No. 8. Sri Lanka - dairy products
Consumption of dairy products in Sri Lanka has increased over the last two decades. However, the growth in demand has been largely met by imports, particularly of milk powder. [ more... ]

Countries No. 7. Kenya: dry milk powder, sugar, maize
Import surges of three agricultural commodities - dry milk powder, sugar, and maize - were raised as a serious issue by stakeholders after the mid-1990s. The surges coincided with liberalization of trade policies in Kenya. [ more... ]

Countries No. 6. Jamaica: poultry, dairy products and onions
As with most developing countries, Jamaica lacks analytical capacity to assess how the pace of trade liberalization can affect its domestic industries. Three different case studies in Jamaica demonstrate that under these circumstances, lobbying and constructive engagement of the industry in the development of trade policy can play a fundamental role in balancing the growth of domestic industries and imports. [ more... ]

Countries No. 5. Ghana: rice, poultry and tomato paste
Import surges for rice, poultry and tomato paste were documented in Ghana over the period 1998 to 2004, with formula-based volume triggers breached in one or more incidences for each of the commodities. [ more... ]

Countries No. 4. Cameroon: poultry, rice and vegetable oils
The major impact of the trade reforms implemented by the Cameroon Government in the framework of its Structural Adjustment Polices (SAP), after the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994 was a significant simplification of the fiscal system. [ more... ]

Countries No. 3. Mozambique: vegetable oils
Mozambique lacks analytical capacity and organizational structure to monitor international trade and assess the impacts of trade liberalization on domestic sub-sectors. [ more... ]

Countries No. 2. Malawi: maize, sugar and dairy products
Following trade liberalization, both imports and exports in Malawi have been increasing since the late 1980s. In the case of maize, sugar, and milk, there were 10, 8, and 5 cases of import surges which deviated by more than 30 percent deviation from a three-year moving average. [ more... ]

Countries No 1. United Republic of Tanzania: rice, maize and dairy products
Annual import data reveal a doubling in rice and dairy imports during the period 1997 to 2004. [ more... ]

Issues No. 6: Injury: Issues and identification
Many developing countries are constrained in their efforts to identify and document injury due to severe shortcomings in their institutional arrangements, which include the designation of appropriate authorities to both identify and analyse injury impacts of surges. [ more... ]

Issues No. 5. Institutional requirements for the implementation of a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM)
In the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations, one of the proposals put forward to help developing countries respond to disruptive import surges is that of a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). [ more... ]

Issues No. 4. Import Surges: What are the contributing domestic factors?
Surges in imports are often thought of as being caused primarily by factors outside national boundaries, including those deriving from various types of unfair trade practices. (However, case studies and detailed analysis indicate that some of the factors operating within countries may be far more important and widespread in determining the onset of import surges. In order to ensure appropriate policy responses, developing countries need to carefully assess whether factors operating within the domestic market, rather than external factors, are responsible for surges in imports. [ more... ]

Issues No. 3. Import Surges: What are their external causes?
Agricultural import surges in developing countries are usually attributed to external factors, including export subsidies and highly concessional export credits from high income countries, disruptive surplus disposal in the form of food aid shipments, and price supports leading to the accumulation of surpluses that weigh on world market prices and unfair trade practices. [ more... ]

Issues No. 2. Import surges: What is their frequency and which are the countries and commodities most affected?
Import surges are increasingly of concern to developing countries, but there is some uncertainty about their extent owing in part to lack of a unique definition of the phenomenon and also due to insufficient understanding of their impacts. [ more... ]

Issues No. 1. Import surges: What are they and how can they be identified?
The problems of assessing and measuring import surges are extensive because agricultural trade is subject to inherent variability owing to the effects of weather. [ more... ]

Commodities No. 3. Import Surges in Developing Countries: the Case of Dairy Products
International dairy markets have been heavily distorted by government interventions, including domestic supports which have favoured the growth of structural surpluses. [ more... ]

Commodities No. 2. Import Surges in Developing Countries: the Case of Rice.
Some developing regions and countries are more prone to experiencing rice import surges. Rice import surges are most prevalent in Africa, the Near East and Central America and the Caribbean. [ more... ]

Commodities No. 1. Import surges in developing countries: the case of poultry
The steady decline in the cost of chicken products over the past 10 years as a result of developments in production, processing and transport technology as well as strong consumer acceptance of diverse poultry products cuts, has prompted trade gains which have exceeded those of most other agricultural commodities. [ more... ]

No 15. Indicators for the Selection of Agricultural Special Products: Some Empirical Evidence
Indicator analysis is a component of the process of selecting Special Products and needs to be supplemented by stakeholder consultations and to be cognisant of existing trade policy interventions, to ensure that country specific characteristics and policy objectives are fully accounted for. [ more... ]

No 14. Considerations in the reform of agricultural trade policy in low income developing countries.
Many developing countries are under pressure to reduce their trade barriers to the entry of agricultural products, both as a result of ongoing trade negotiations as well as due to policy advice from donors and international organizations. Much of this pressure is based on the notion that further agricultural trade liberalization is appropriate for all countries, regardless of their level of development or of their trading partners' trade policy stance [ more... ]

No. 13. Global impacts of agricultural trade reforms. Why users need to be more vigilant when interpreting quantitative estimates.
Improved use of simulation models requires in addition to more transparency and better explanations of the model results, a better appreciation of the numerous technical difficulties and subjective assumptions that can confound the generation of realistic insights. Results of simulation models should not therefore be taken as the only, or even dominant, source of information. Alternatives exist in the form of other types of models and in reviews of similar experiences of trade policy reform, both of which can better reveal how countries may actually fare in a new global trade context. [ more... ]

No. 12. Rice liberalization: predicting trade and price impacts
Rice is a principal source of calorie intake for about half of the world's population and a mainstay for rural populations and food security in many low income countries. It is mainly cultivated by small farmers in holdings of less than one hectare. Rice also plays an important role as a "wage" commodity for workers in cash crop or non-agricultural sectors. [ more... ]

No. 11. Dairy and dairy products: Why is reform so difficult?
This Policy Brief examines the impact of dairy sector domestic and trade policies on international dairy markets, and addresses the question of what inhibits reform in this important agricultural sector. It outlines the difficulties in assessing the impacts of policy reform, and provides an overview of recent results from quantitative assessments of comprehensive policy reform, with particular attention to the consequences of reform for developing countries. [ more... ]

No. 10. Special and differential treatment in agriculture
Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) in the WTO is a response to the recognition that, due to structural problems, low levels of industrialization, limited access to advanced technologies and inadequate infrastructure, developing countries are often not able to take full advantage of emerging trading opportunities. SDT measures, therefore, recognize the interests of least-developed and developing countries by permitting fewer and different obligations over longer periods of time and provide for technical and financial assistance to these countries to facilitate greater participation in global trade. This brief reviews the current status of the SDT debate in the WTO, paying particular attention to the three broad areas which relate to the agriculture sector. [ more... ]

No. 9. A Special Safeguard Mechanism for developing countries
Negotiation of the Special Safeguard (SSG) during the Uruguay Round (UR) took place amid fears that tariffication could make countries more vulnerable to market instability, depressed import prices, and import surges that might damage agricultural production. In the current Doha Round, countries are negotiating to reduce bound tariff rates further, thus limiting the option that developing countries have to raise applied tariffs to prevent or offset the damage of sudden import increases or world price depressions. [ more... ]

No 8. Food aid in the context of international and domestic markets and the Doha Round.
Food aid has its origins is rooted firmly in the disposal of the food surpluses (mostly of cereals) that had accumulated in some developed countries by the early 1950s. This form of aRecognising the possibility that aid provided in this form can result in the displacement of commercial imports and/or discouragement of local production in the recipient countries. Recognizing this possibility, in 1954 the international community agreed to established the FAO Principles of Surplus Disposal (the Principles), an: a international code of international conduct to encourage the constructive use of disposal of surplus agricultural commodities, while at the same timewhile safeguarding the interests of commercial exporters and local producers. [ more... ]

No. 7. Non-reciprocal agricultural trade preferences.
Preferential trade programmes are either reciprocal or non-reciprocal. Reciprocal preferences occur when two countries offer each other trade concessions not offered to other countries. Non-reciprocal trade preferences are trade arrangements where a country unilaterally offers concessions to one or more other countries. This note focuses only on non-reciprocal preferences. [ more... ]

No. 6. Sugar: policy insights from analysis of sugar sector reform
Sugar cane or beet is produced in over 130 countries with sugar cane representing between 74 and 77 percent of global production. Developing countries currently account for about 67 percent of world production (in 1998-2000). Also production is becoming more concentrated among countries. In 1980, the top 10 producers accounted for 56 percent of global production; by 2004, they accounted for 69 percent. World sugar consumption is expanding, reflecting rising incomes and shifts in food consumption patterns. Developing countries account for more than 67 percent of current global sugar consumption, and these countries - particularly in Asia - are expected to be the primary source of future demand growth. [ more... ]

No. 5. Reducing the trade-distorting impact of agricultural support.
Since the mid 1990s, there has been a significant change in the type of support to developed country agricultural producers, with a shift towards categories of payment that are exempt (in WTO terms ) from reduction commitments. Between 1995 and 2001 the proportion of support in develo-ped countries, defined as production or trade-distorting (Amber Box), fell from 43 to 36 percent of total expenditure, while the proportion that could be termed Green Box policies (those with little or no trade-distorting effects, not subject to reduction commitment) increased from 42 to 50 percent. [ more... ]

No. 4. Export competition: appropriate disciplines for eliminating subsidies
The August 2004 World Trade Organization (WTO) Framework Agreement on agriculture calls for the establishment of "detailed modalities ensuring the parallel elimination of all forms of export subsidies and disciplines on all export measures with equivalent effect by a credible end date". Elimination includes: a) scheduled export subsidies, b) export credits, guarantees, and insurance programmes with repayment periods exceeding 180 days; c) trade distorting activities of State Trading Enterprises (STEs); and d) food aid not conforming to disciplines yet to be agreed. Other aspects to be further disciplined include: a) the terms and conditions of export credits, guarantees and insurance programmes with repayment periods under 180 days; b) other less trade distorting activities of STEs; and c) food aid transactions which may displace commercial imports. [ more... ]

No. 3. Bananas: Implications of EU tariff reform for producers
This Trade Policy Brief reviews key issues on the forthcoming change in the European Union (EU) banana import regime from a tariff rate quota (TRQ) to a tariff only regime. It discusses the extent of disagreement between different analyses on the likely impact of the policy changes and offers reasons why estimates of these impacts vary across the studies. [ more... ]

No. 2. Tariff reduction formulae: the importance of tariff profiles
This brief explains the implications of the approach taken to analysing the implications of the choice of tariff reduction formula against a set of objectives. It illustrates the importance of analysis at the disaggregated level and highlights some methodological issues that can affect the analysis. It concludes by reviewing insights from existing evidence. [ more... ]

No. 1. Cotton: impact of support policies on developing countries - why do the numbers vary?
This brief compares a number of analytical studies on the impact of developed country cotton support on developing countries, with the objective of determining the policy question that they seek to address, the extent of agreement on the impacts and, most importantly, the reasons that estimates of these impacts vary across the studies. [ more... ]

Impacts and policy responses to a commodity price boom: The case of Malawi, by Piero Conforti, Emanuele Ferrari and Alexander Sarris. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 27
This work analyzes the medium term effects of the recent commodity price spike in a typical Low-Income-Food-Deficit country, Malawi, as well as a set of possible policy responses. [ more... ]

Policy response to a commodity price boomunder structural constraints: The Case of Tanzania, by Alexander Sarris and Piero Conforti. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 26
This paper explores the impact of the recent soar in world commodity prices on economic activity and household welfare in Tanzania, and the possible policy responses to this shock. [ more... ]

WTO provisions in the context of responding to soaring food prices, by Ramesh Sharma and Panos Konandreas. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 25
This paper discusses certain WTO rules and provisions that have a bearing on response measures to the soaring world food prices. In doing so, it also reflects upon new rules that are being negotiated under the Doha Round. [ more... ]

China, India and AFTA: evolving bilateral agricultural trade and new opportunities through free trade agreements, by Ramesh Sharma. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 24
The purpose of this paper is to review the evolution of bilateral agricultural trade of China, India and AFTA of the ASEAN, and to discuss agricultural trade potentials that might result from bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) among these dynamic trading blocks. [ more... ]

Liberalizing trade under structural constraints in developing countries: A general equilibrium analysis of Tanzania. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 23.
This paper explores the impact of trade liberalization on growth and poverty alleviation in Tanzania, based on a single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes considerable factor disaggregation and household detail. [ more... ]

Threshold cointegration in the sugar-ethanol-oil price system in Brazil: evidence from nonlinear vector error correction models, by George Rapsomanikis and David Hallam. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 22.
In this paper, the possibility of nonlinear dynamic adjustment in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. [ more... ]

Estimating price elasticities of supply for cotton: a structural time-series approach, by Ben Shepherd. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 21.
The Kalman Filter is used to estimate a structural time-series model of cotton supply for 30 countries and 16 aggregated regions. [ more... ]

Market access and preferential trading schemes: evidence from selected developed and developing countries, by Piero Conforti and Luca Salvatici. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 20
This report is aimed at analyzing the degree of protection faced by exporters in the EU, Japan, the US, China, India and Brazil, and at identifying the contribution of products' groups to the observed degree of market access. [ more... ]

The role of agriculture in reducing poverty in Tanzania: A household perspective from rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, by Alexander Sarris, Sara Savastano and Luc Christiaensen. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 19.
This paper explores how farm productivity affects poverty, and how various factor market constraints affect farm productivity. [ more... ]

Producer demand and welfare benefits of rainfall insurance in Tanzania, by Alexander Sarris, Panayiotis Karfakis and Luc Christiaensen. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 18.
This paper explores empirically the issue of the demand, namely the willingness to pay (WTP), for rainfall-based insurance, in the context of a poor agrarian economy, with rural households significantly dependent on agricultural commodity risks. [ more... ]

Household vulnerability in rural Tanzania, by Alexander Sarris and Panayiotis Karfakis. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 17.
This paper develops a measure of rural household vulnerability that combines existing approaches to estimating idiosyncratic risks with an approach to measuring covariate risk arising from crop production. [ more... ]

The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk, by Alexander Sarris, Piero Conforti and Adam Prakash. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 16.
The paper considers the possibility of insuring the price risks of wheat and maize imports of low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs), as a way to insure one part of their external commodity risks. [ more... ]

The impact of domestic and international commodity price volatility on agricultural income instability in Ghana, Vietnam and Peru, by George Rapsomanikis and Alexander Sarris. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 15.
The extent to which commodity price volatility affects the income of producing households and their vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity depends on household diversification patterns and the degree of their exposure to markets. [ more... ]

Linkages between domestic and international maize markets, and market based strategies for hedging maize import price risks in Tanzania, by Alexander Sarris and Ekaterini Mantzou. FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 14.
The paper analyzes the domestic regional maize markets in the United Republic of Tanzania as far as their spatial integration is concerned, as well as their influence from world prices. [ more... ]

Food import risk in Malawi: simulating a hedging scheme for Malawi food imports using historical data, by Wouter Zant. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 13.
During the 1980s and 1990s least developed countries (LDCs) encountered increasing difficulties in maintaining national food security. [ more... ]

The effect of direct payments of the OECD countries in world agricultural markets. Evidence from partial and general equilibrium frameworks, by Piero Conforti. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 12.
The effect of direct payments granted to OECD farmers on world agricultural markets is one of the controversial issues in the Doha Development Agenda. This paper aims at providing additional evidence on the range of effects that such payments may have under general and partial equilibrium assumptions. [ more... ]

The impact of import surges: country case study results for Senegal and Tanzania, by Ramesh Sharma, David Nyange, Guillaume Duteutre and Nancy Morgan. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 11.
Measuring the impacts of import surges is a difficult task, but simple case studies illustrate some of the fundamental issues. [ more... ]

Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interaction between developed and developing countries, by Piero Conforti and Luca Salvatici. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 10.
The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. [ more... ]

The EU cotton policy regime and the implications of the proposed changes for producer welfare, Giannis Karagiannis. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 9.
A new European Union (EU) policy regime has been announced for cotton for introduction in 2005. The orientation is towards a scheme which includes a mix of coupled and decoupled measures [ more... ]

The impact of domestic and trade policies on the world cotton market. Daneswar Poonyth, Alexander Sarris, Ramesh Sharma and Shangnan Shui. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No.8.
There is a long tradition in the quantification of the impact of agricultural trade distortions on global markets, trade, and individual countries, notably in the context of the ongoing multilateral trade negotiations. [ more... ]

Price transmission in selected agricultural markets, by Piero Conforti. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 7.
The paper is aimed at providing evidence on price transmission in a number of agricultural markets, both per se and in support of analytical efforts in the area of agricultural trade policy analysis. [ more... ]

The marketing potential of date palm fruits in the European market, by Pascal Liu. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 6.
Europe, and in particular the European Union (EU) is a key market for date exporters. [ more... ]

World markets for organic citrus and citrus juices, by Pascal Liu. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 5.
The world market for certified organic citrus (fresh and juice) is presently small and production accounts for less than 1 percent of global citrus production. [ more... ]

Agricultural Policy Indicators, by Timothy E. Josling and Alberto Valdés. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 4.
This paper outlines a methodological approach for use by FAO to collect, analyze and monitor agricultural policy indicators (API) for developing countries. [ more... ]

Quantifying appropriate levels of the WTO bound tariffs on basic food products in the context of the Development Box proposals, by Ramesh Sharma. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 3.
Many developing countries in their WTO negotiating proposals on market access have called for the option for them to set appropriate levels of bound tariffs, as special and differential treatment, for selected products vital for food and livelihood security. [ more... ]

The WTO and environmental and social standards, certification and labelling in agriculture, by Cora Dankers. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 2.
This paper reflects on the GATT/WTO legal aspects of social and environmental standards and voluntary certification and labelling programmes in agriculture. [ more... ]

The Brazilian ethanol programme: impacts on world ethanol and sugar markets, by Tatsuji Koizumi. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 1.
The sugar market in Brazil has a strong relationship with the ethanol market. The Brazilian government has now abolished all the sugar market intervention measures except for the control on the ethanol-gasoline blend ratio. [ more... ]

No. 14. Towards appropriate agricultural trade policy for low income developing countries.
Many developing countries are currently under pressure to reduce their trade barriers to the entry of agricultural products. This pressure comes both as a result of ongoing trade negotiations (multilateral, plurilateral or bilateral) and due to policy advice from donors and international organizations based on the assumption that a liberal agricultural trade policy is necessary to allow growth through trade expansion. [ more... ]

No. 13. Trade Policy Simulation Models: Estimating global impacts of agricultural trade policy reform in the Doha Round.
There has been a recent proliferation of simulation modelling exercises attempting to quantify the potential economic gains from further liberalization of agricultural trade, and in doing so, seeking to inform the current Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. This paper seeks to contribute to a better appreciation of what the results of simulation models actually mean, and the extent to which they can be used to inform debates relating to trade policy reform. [ more... ]

No. 12. Rice: what do analytical model results tell us?
2004 was declared the International Year of Rice by the United Nations General Assembly, a tribute to a commodity that is the staple food for about half of the world's population and also a major income earner in the developing countries. Because of its strategic importance, rice has been subject to a host of policy interventions that have made it feature among the most distorted agricultural commodities. For this reason, rice is frequently specified in models that analyse the effects of trade liberalization. The objective of this technical note is to review and compare the various analytical tools employed to assess such impacts, with the ultimate aim of shedding some light on critical issues under discussion in the WTO Doha Round Multilateral Trade Negotiations. [ more... ]

No. 11. Dairy - Measuring the impact of reform
Determining the impact of reforms to dairy sector policies is problematic and controversial. The extent and pervasiveness of intervention in the sector, and the resulting distortions to the international market, would suggest that liberalization could potentially lead to large gains, and indeed these are consistently reflected in most model-based analyses. The size of impacts has long been thought of as the key reason why dairy reforms and trade discussions have been so difficult. However, there are reasons for questioning estimates of the likely magnitudes of such impacts across different importing and exporting countries. [ more... ]

No. 10. Special and differential treatment in agriculture.
This technical note is intended to contribute to the process of clarifying issues and identifying possible options to facilitate agreement on areas of special and differential treatment in the context of the agriculture negotiations. It first addresses what is seen by some members as the most difficult area, the cross cutting issues related to development, focused on the principles behind, and purpose of, SDT. It then examines the agreement-specific proposals under the three pillars of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), as raised in the August Framework Agreement. It concludes with a discussion of implementation, an area of particular concern to the developing countries. [ more... ]

No. 9. A special safeguard mechanism for developing countries.
As countries reduce tariffs and bind them at lower levels, they become increasingly vulnerable to external agricultural market instability and to import surges that could damage viable agricultural production activities. Vulnerability to such external shocks is of particular concern to developing countries endeavouring to develop their agricultural potential and to diversify production in order to enhance their food security and alleviate poverty. [ more... ]

No. 8. Food aid in the context of international and domestic markets and the Doha Round
This technical note reviews major developments in the international food aid system and different positions on the effectiveness and impact of food aid. It also attempts to clarify the terminology, definitions and concepts used in discussions on food aid, with a view to improving the process of analysis and to help focus the debate under the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Framework Agreement on Agriculture adopted on 1 August 2004, which has called for negotiations on food aid disciplines. [ more... ]

No. 7. Agricultural preferences: issues for negotiation.
Access for developing country exports to developed country markets on preferential terms has been a long standing component of multilateral trading arrangements. The main purpose of preferences is to promote increases in the volume and value of exports from developing countries, thereby contributing to their growth and development the logic being that through greater volumes of sales, on a more stable basis and at higher prices than would otherwise be obtained, development and growth can be realized in the recipient country. [ more... ]

No. 6. Sugar: the impact of reforms to sugar sector policies - a guide to contemporary analyses
This technical note is intended as a guide to assist in the interpretation of a range of existing analytical studies of the impact of current sugar sector policies on world market conditions and on developing country producers, and of the insights that these studies can provide (and those that they cannot) in determining the potential impacts of future reform initiatives. This is especially important in the case of the sugar sector, since recent announcements of major reforms are yet to be fully incorporated into contemporary analytical studies. [ more... ]

No. 5. Domestic support: trade related issues and the empirical evidence
This Technical Note seeks to address two central questions relating to negotiations towards further disciplines on domestic support measures: (i) what are the characteristics of domestic support measures that cause such measures to have a potentially trade distortionary effect? and (ii) will further World Trade Organization(WTO) disciplines on domestic support measures be effective in reducing levels of trade distorting support? [ more... ]

No. 4. Export competition: selected issues and the empirical evidence
There is broad agreement that interventions to support exports of agricultural commodities have the potential to distort competition on world commodity markets. In particular, the use of export subsidies can displace not only third country exporters, but also domestic producers in importing countries, with particularly detrimental effects to the development prospects of developing countries. In principle, it is also possible that other government interventions, e.g. through the use of export credits, the activities of state trading enterprises or the use of food aid to dispose of surplus production, could have similar effects to direct export subsidies in distorting markets and trade flows. [ more... ]

No. 3. Bananas: is there a tariff-only equivalent to the EU tariff rate quota regime? Insights from economic analysis.
Following its enlargement to include ten Central and Eastern European countries in May 2004, the European Union (EU) has now become the largest banana market in the world. It is forecast to import some 3.8 million tonnes of bananas in 2005, which would account for almost a third of world banana imports. As bananas enter freely into United States territory, and Japanese banana imports originate mainly in Asia, the rapidly approaching change in the EU banana import regime has raised considerable interest and debate amongst ACP and Latin American countries. [ more... ]

No. 2. Tariff reduction formulae: Methodological issues in assessing their effects
The current round of WTO negotiations on agriculture initiated in Doha in 2001 produced a range of suggestions as to the appropriate approach for further cuts in, and disciplines on, the use of agricultural tariffs. Subsequent analyses have provided crucial information for negotiators and policy analysts on the relative implications of these approaches on the tariff profiles of their individual countries as well as on those of their main trading partners. However, it is essential that these analysts and negotiators are aware of a number of key methodological issues and assumptions which can fundamentally affect analytical results. [ more... ]

No. 1. Cotton: impact of support policies on developing countries - a guide to contemporary analysis.
This trade policy technical note is intended as a guide to assist in the interpretation of the range of existing analytical studies on the impact of developed country cotton support on developing countries. [ more... ]

Certification in the value chain for fresh fruits: the example of banana industry. FAO Commodity Studies No. 4
Certification to voluntary standards is increasingly used by banana producers and exporters worldwide. This report deals with voluntary certification schemes, with a particular focus on those that use an on-product label targeting consumers and have the potential to generate a price premium. The report describes the main patterns of international trade in certified bananas and examines the market situation and prospects of certified organic and fair-trade bananas. [ more... ]

Private standards in the United States and European Union markets for fruit and vegetables. FAO Commodity Studies No. 3.
This report gives an overview of standards and certification programmes relevant for fruit and vegetable producers and exporters in developing countries with a focus on the markets of the United States and the European Union. In addition, it gives an overview of current analytical work on standards and trade, reviews major assistance programmes related to standards and provides recommendations for further research. [ more... ]

Issues in the Global Tobacco Economy. FAO Commodity Studies No. 2.
This is the second of two volumes to be published from the FAO project Tobacco Supply, Demand and Trade by 2010: Policy Options and Adjustment, which was supported by the Government of Sweden through its development agency SIDA. [ more... ]

The World Banana Economy 1985-2002. Pedro Arias, Cora Dankers, Pascal Liu, Paul Pilkauskas.FAO Commodity Studies No. 1.
The volume of bananas exported worldwide in the period 1985-2002 grew at an unprecedented average annual rate of 5.3 percent; twice that of the previous 24 years. This expansion was accompanied by major developments in the world trade situation. This publication reviews the impacts of these events on the world banana economy. It is the first of a series of FAO Commodity Studies that focus primarily on themes relating to individual commodities or commodity groups. [ more... ]