Expert Consultation on Root Crop Statistics
(Harare, Zimbabwe, 3-6 December 2002)

BACKGROUND

The 1996 World Food Summit, through the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and the World Food Summit Plan of Action, recognized the need to develop a concerted effort to ensure food security at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels. In this context, the emphasis has been mainly on cereal food crops.

However, it is well known that apart from cereals, the contribution of roots and tubers to the staple food requirements is significant in many developing countries and these crops play thus an important role in the national and household level food security. In addition, these crops have since long been part of the regular food habits and frequently contribute to cross-substitution when cereals are short in supply. The main roots and tuber crops used for staple food purposes in developing countries are: cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, taro and Irish potatoes. Unfortunately, assessments of the forthcoming food supply-demand situation are hampered by a general lack of information on yield and production of these crops. Time series of past production are hard to come by and if at all existing, they often show considerable inconsistencies. Consequently, in many countries these crops have been left out of the food supply-demand balances or at best, have been included in a qualitative or very approximate manner.

The causes for this lack of information lie in the very characteristics of these crops: the edible parts are under ground and are not easy to assess in terms of growth and condition. In addition and contrary to cereal crops, the production of the edible parts of root and tuber crops is mainly a vegetative process, their development is not dependent on specific cycles including flowering, fruit setting, ripening, etc. Also, planting of several of these crops can take place over a much more extended period as compared to cereals. The development of the root or tuber begins after a number of months and generally continues for a considerable length of time. Harvesting can take place from as early as six months after planting up to 18 months or more for crops like cassava. It is in particular this latter characteristic that makes these crops so important for household level food security, as it permits the family to bridge over periods when other foodstuffs are short in supply.

Over the past 20 years, Governments in many developing countries have promoted the cultivation of roots and tubers in a specific effort to support household level food security, but sometimes this has been at the expense of cereal crops. In the absence of data on production of roots and tubers, it has been difficult to judge the impact of these programmes and it has seriously complicated the drawing up of national food balances.

During discussions on topics such as food crop production estimation at sessions of the Asia and Africa Commissions on Agricultural Statistics and various Expert Consultations on subjects such as Development of Agricultural Statistics for Food Policy, the statistical community recognized the general lack of assessments (forecasting and estimation) of root and tuber production. These assessments are an essential component of an operational food security programme in support of the above objective.

Whilst limited information is already included in the FAOINFO component of WAICENT, especially the Food Outlook, they are often based on estimates made by FAO on the basis of secondary data from multiple sources, the reliability of which is difficult to assess. At the same time, it was recognized that commercial production of roots and tubers is taking place in a number of countries around the world for which sometimes production estimates are available. Also, a number of research institutions are conducting experiments for improving root and tuber varieties and programmes for introduction of these varieties and may have methodologies to estimate production from trials or outreach experiments. Despite some (limited) efforts in the past, it has not been possible sofar to utilize the existing knowledge and experience for the development of a pragmatic statistical method for production estimation especially in traditional agricultural environment as is the case in many African countries.

Thus, there is an urgent need for FAO to provide support to development of forward-looking types of information, such as production forecasts and early warning information for root and tuber crops. In this regard, recommendations have been made and were discussed in various fora such as Agricultural Statistics Commission meetings. In 1996, a small Workshop was devoted to the subject, bringing together a number of statisticians from Eastern and Southern Africa. Subsequently, the question of production estimation for roots and tubers was also placed on the agenda of a series of Consultations on Food Crop Production Forecasting held in Africa, Asia and Latin America during 2000-2001. The consensus emerging from these meetings was that too little information is available to statisticians on agronomic and production characteristics to be able to device an appropriate methodology for production estimation. In addition, it was strongly felt that extensive experimentation would be required to test various possible methods before any guidelines could be issued or recommendations could be made for their implementation. Also, it was felt that any methodological research on the subject needs to take into account both the statistical and agronomic aspects and involve specialists from these disciplines.

PURPOSE OF THE MEETING

a) Objective:
FAO is intending to address the above shortcomings through the preparation of a series of technical documents on methodology, possibly supported by case studies on selected country practices and/or results from controlled experiments. To this end, FAO/RAFR is contacting a number of specialists to document the different aspects that might be of importance for methodology and benefit from their experience with developing and implementing root and tuber production estimates and forecasts. Ultimately, the objective of the overall effort is to provide guidelines and methodology suitable for developing countries to make reasonable estimates of the production of root and tuber crops. The meeting will focus on 5 main root and tuber crops, which are significant for Africa: Cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, taro, and Irish potatoes. In this context, the present meeting is called to:

1. Discuss and identify key parameters for a system capable of providing information and statistics on root and tuber crops to support national food security programmes;

2. Review and discuss papers prepared in draft form by each of the participating experts in order to document relevant experiences/practices in the agronomy and assessment of roots and tubers;

3. Reach conclusions regarding activities/plan of action to derive pragmatic method(s) for assessing root and tuber crops and obtaining estimates of their production, including field-testing of methodologies.

b) Follow-up:
FAO will assemble the material produced prior and during the meeting into a draft technical document with selected case studies in annex, for circulation amongst the participants. Experts and FAO staff will be requested comments before finalization. Depending on the outcome and possible recommendations, FAO will then make proposals for further experimentation in order to draw up a set of guidelines for use by statisticians and others concerned in making assessments and estimations of the production of root and tuber crops.

PARTICIPANTS

The participants to the meeting will include experts on various aspects of root and tuber crops from several African countries as well as from the Asia, Latin America and Caribbean regions and from institutions (to be specified). Representatives of a number of Donor Countries and Institutions will be requested to attend, in view of their potential interest in the subject and their possible support in the further stages of this exercise. Experts from FAO Headquarters and Regional Offices (ESS and AGP) will also attend. The participating experts from countries will serve in their personal capacities and not as representatives of their governments. Their contributions will be duly acknowledged.

PAPERS TO BE PREPARED

The scope of the present meeting, and ultimately of the FAO publication(s) is to address specifically the statistical aspects of the assessment and estimation of production of root and tuber crops. The subjects to be addressed by the invited experts are amongst others, but not limited to:

• Agronomic aspects of root and tuber crops, in relation to production estimation;
• Results of trials and experiments of various nature, including industrial use which may be of relevance to the purpose of the meeting;
• Sources of data (if available) such as:
• Administrative reports
• Rapid assessment surveys
• Crop assessment/monitoring system
• Current agricultural surveys
• Remote sensing
• Agrometeorological data
• Agricultural market information service
• Other sources of information.
• Methodology already being used for assessments and estimation;
• Issues, problems and constraints;
• Specific proposals for further experimentation, focused on small holder production estimation;
• Conclusions and recommendations.

The experts are expected to prepare an advanced draft of their respective papers at the home station and present country and institutions experiences during the consultation, emphasizing methodological aspects.

MODALITY OF THE MEETING

The experts will have about 30 minutes for the presentation of their paper. The use of overhead projector transparencies is strongly encouraged. The presentations are to concentrate on practical applications, innovative methods, the main findings and the concluding experience. This is followed by 30 minutes of discussions on the individual expert papers and exchanging experience, etc. The meeting may also make suggestions with the aim of improving the content and presentation of the paper and/or giving more focus to specific concerns, or other similar recommendations to achieve consistency and/or coherence in individual expert papers.

The experts are expected to take detailed notes of the comments made on their papers during the meeting and to conduct further deskwork in their home stations to improve the paper taking into consideration the recommendations of the meeting. The revised papers will be submitted to FAO for technical clearance.

The final papers will be between 8-12 pages, with on the front-page the full title and a concise summary with conclusions and recommendations (half page). Annexes are only needed if these serve to support important aspects of the paper. Submission will be by Email with one (1) hard copy by mail (preferably in Word97 or later).

In addition to the regular sessions, the participants will visit for half-day some farms that grow at least some of the root and tuber crops for food use, with the aim to discuss the practical aspects of making assessments of these crops. Subsequently, the participants to the meeting will also visit for half-day a research station where there is an on-going programme on roots and tubers, both research and introduction of new or improved varieties, to discuss with staff concerned the various problems and prospects of making production estimations and to observe some of the on-going trials in the field.

Alternatively, if travel time would be too long, the two half-day visits could be combined into 1-2 day field trip, whereby part of the regular meeting could be conducted also on site.

VENUE

The meeting will last for 4 full working days (3, 4, 5, 6 December 2002). It will be held at a suitable location in Harare, Zimbabwe. Air travelers can easily reach Harare, which is well connected with various main airports such as Johannesburg and Nairobi. The organizers will make hotel reservations for all participants at special rates.

PARTICIPATION

FAO will provide invited experts with an air ticket and Daily Subsistence Allowance for the duration of the meeting at standard United Nations rates applicable to the location of the meeting. Following acceptance of the invitation by FAO, the participants will receive detailed information regarding their travel and other organizational arrangements.

CONTACT
For all additional information, the person to contact is:
Naman KEITA
Statistician
Statistical Development Service
FAO Statistics Division
Naman.Keita@fao.org
Tel: + 39-06 570 56880
Fax: +39-06 570 55615
ESS, Room C 418
Via delle Terme di Caracalla
00100 Rome
Italy

PROVISIONAL AGENDA

1. Opening of the Meeting
2. Adoption of the Agenda and Timetable
3. Objectives and Purpose of the Meeting
4. Overview of previous Meetings, Consultations and Workshops on Root and Tuber Crop Estimation and Related Activities; their Outcomes and Recommendations
5. Context: Contribution of Root and Tuber Crops to National and Household Level Food Security
6. Context: Quantification of Rootcrops in National Food Balance Sheets and Problems encountered
7. Expert contributions: Agronomic Aspects of Root and Tuber Crops
8. Expert contributions: Yield and Production Aspects of Root and Tuber Crops
9. Expert contributions: Results of Trials and Introduction of New and/or Improved Varieties of Root and Tuber Crops
10. Expert contributions: Operational Aspects of Assessing Root and Tuber Crops
11. Expert contributions: Estimation of Crop Losses Due to Different Causes in Root and Tuber Crops
12. Case Studies on the Techniques for Assessing Root and Tuber Crops
13. Visit to farms Growing Some of the Roots or Tubers in Question
14. Visit to One or More Research Stations That Are Involved in Root and Tuber Research and/or Introduction of New/Improved Varieties
15. Panel Discussion: Possible Ways to Develop Guidelines and Methodology
16. Panel Discussion: Other Aspects of Estimation of Root and Tuber Crop Production
17. Panel Discussion: Contents of an FAO Publication/Guidelines
18. Panel Discussion: Follow-up, the Next Steps
19. Other Matters
20. Synthesis of the Meeting
21. Closing of the Meeting

TENTATIVE AGENDA AND TIMETABLE

LIST OF DOCUMENTS