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أزمة السلسلة الغذائية

نشرة الإنذار المبكر

تتضمّن نشرة الإنذار المبكر الفصلية معلومات عن التهديدات المحدقة بالسلسلة الغذائية والأمن الغذائي خلال الأشهر الثلاثة المقبلة. وهي ثمرة تعاون بين نظام الوقاية من الأزمات الناشئة عن الآفات والأمراض الحيوانية والنباتية العابرة للحدود والتهديدات لسلامة الأغذية، والنظام العالمي للإعلام والإنذار المبكر عن الأغذية والزراعة وإطار إدارة أزمات السلسلة الغذائية. والبيانات متاحة من قبل النظام العالمي للإعلام والإنذار المبكر عن الأغذية والزراعة وإطار الوقاية من الأزمات.

April 2019 - June 2019

During the period April to June 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe, where they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.

The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO –, changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (January to March 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 40 countries (31 in Africa, eight in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

Thirty-two plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period April to June 2019, among them twenty-seven pests and diseases are forecasted to be of moderate to high likelihood of occurrence as shown in table 3. A total of 275 forecasts were conducted in 119 countries.