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Early Warning Bulletin

The Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin integrates information on threats to the food chain and food security for the three months ahead.

It is the result of a collaboration between the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and food safety threats, the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC). Data is provided by GIEWS and EMPRES.

July 2018 - September 2018

Fall Armyworm
At the sub-regional level, during this forecast period (July to September 2018):
North Africa and Near East will have to remain vigilant to the possible introduction of the pest, as FAW is present in neighboring countries. Strong surveillance and monitoring are recommended.
Western Africa is at significant risk of further damage from FAW, because the forecast period overlaps with the maize season in many of the countries.
Central African maize is also at risk. Furthermore, there have been reports of FAW on alternate crops including sugarcane and sorghum. Conducting robust control operations is highly advised.
Eastern Africa is at risk of further damage from FAW, because the forecast period overlaps with the maize season in many of the countries. In some countries, the forecast period coincides with the major maize growing season, and in others, FAW will continue its development on alternate hosts.
Southern Africa is at risk due to the rising temperatures, which could favor pest multiplication and spread on maize crops cultivated under irrigation and moisture harvesting regimes. 

Ebola virus disease
An Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in humans has been occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. WHO conducted a formal rapid risk assessment, which determined that the public risk is high in the Central African region; particularly in the Central African Republic and Congo, due to the low capacity of their health systems to cope with the virus. In the spirit of One Health, FAO is supporting the efforts of the public health sector in response to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Rift Valley fever
After a period of abnormal, heavy rainfall and floods in the Eastern African region, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) was reported among humans and animals in Kenya. This outbreak among animals and humans is ongoing and poses a threat to the whole region. Although, the upcoming season from July onwards will be unsuitable for the vector populations in most of the Eastern African region, localized suitable conditions may favor RVF vector amplification.
Given the density of domestic animals in the area, uncontrolled cross-border movements of livestock, conflicts, and a lack of veterinary services can facilitate the spread of RVF in East Africa. Therefore, FAO advises the veterinary services and livestock farmers’ communities in the region to remain vigilant to the potential occurrence and spread of RVF in humans and/or animals.