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Кризис продовольственной цепи

Бюллетень раннего предупреждения

Ежеквартальный Бюллетень раннего предупреждения содержит подборку информационных материалов по угрозам продовольственной цепочки и продовольственной безопасности на предстоящие три месяца.

Этот бюллетень представляет собой плод сотрудничества Системы чрезвычайных профилактических мер (ЭМПРЕС), Глобальной системы информации и раннего предупреждения (ГСИРП) и Механизма управления в кризисных ситуациях в продовольственной цепи (FCC). Данные предоставлены ЭМПРЕС и ГСИРП. 

April 2019 - June 2019
Overview

During the period April to June 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe, where they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.

The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO –, changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (January to March 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 40 countries (31 in Africa, eight in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

MAIN FOOD CHAIN THREATS
Thirty-two plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period April to June 2019, among them twenty-seven pests and diseases are forecasted to be of moderate to high likelihood of occurrence as shown in table 3. A total of 275 forecasts were conducted in 119 countries.