Food Chain Crisis

Fall Armyworm forecasting

The Food Chain Crisis develops quarterly forecasts at regional and country levels of threats to the food chain affecting food security worldwide.

Read the latest forecasts on FAW spread (October-December 2019) in Africa and Asia:

Africa forecast 

In East Africa, FAW presence has now been confirmed in all countries except Djibouti. In most East African countries, the forecast period coincides with the short rainy season. Unless appropriate action is taken, the likelihood of spread and damage will be high be- cause the pest will have access to significant amounts of maize, which is its preferred host.

In North Africa, FAW has been reported in southern Egypt in maize, and is expected to continue spreading to the north of the country (the Nile Delta region). The climate conditions in this forecast period in Egypt and the Sudan may allow for continuous planting of host plants, which may increase the likelihood of spread and damage. There will be a low risk of FAW introduction to southern Algeria and southern Mauritania from their neighbouring countries to the south.

In Southern Africa, FAW was initially reported in some countries at the end of 2016. It is now present throughout the entire Southern African subregion, although the pest has not yet been reported in Lesotho. FAW may spread and increase as most countries will have maize during the forecast period, this will be subject to the weather conditions.

In Central Africa, FAW will spread and increase in those countries where maize will be present during the forecast period.

Asia forecast

In Southeast Asia, FAW has been reported in most countries of the subregion. It is expected to continue to spread within tropical countries; however, it will decline in temperate countries as temperatures become cold.

In West Asia, Yemen officially declared the introduction of FAW in 2018. This may increase the risk of introduction of the pest to other neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman.

Download the FAO Food Chain Crisis Bulletin for detailed forecasts at country level.