Food Chain Crisis

Fall Armyworm forecasting

The Food Chain Crisis develops quarterly forecasts at regional and country levels of threats to the food chain affecting food security worldwide.

Read the latest forecasts on FAW spread (January-March 2020) in Africa and Asia:

Africa forecast 

Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) presence is confirmed in all Eastern African countries except in Djibouti. In Ethiopia, the forecast period (January–March) coincides with the growing of irrigated maize and the maize crop, a preferred host, will be at risk. In Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda, these months coincide with the off-season period, and the pest will therefore have limited access to maize crops. This means that the likelihood of pest spread and damage will be low.
- In North Africa, Egypt has officially reported the presence of FAW on maize fields in southern Egypt. Sudan has been reporting the introduction of the pest since 2017 and the Nile Valley may be considered the probable route of introduction to Egypt. The climate in Egypt and Sudan allows for continuous planting of many host plants, which increase the likelihood of pest spread and damage.
- In Southern Africa, maize will be in the vegetative stages in almost all countries. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW amplification.
- In Central Africa, the likelihood of FAW spreading and amplification depends on the availability of the host plant in different countries.
- In West Africa, the likelihood of FAW spreading and amplification ranges from Nil to Moderate, depending on the availability of the maize crop.

Asia forecast

-In South Asia, regarding Fall armyworm (FAW), the cold temperatures expected during the forecast period will restrict the development and perpetuation of the pest.
- In West Asia, Yemen has officially declared the introduction and presence of FAW since 2018, which increases the risk of introduction to neighbouring countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia.

Download the FAO Food Chain Crisis Bulletin for detailed forecasts at country level.