- Urbanisation, industrialisation. Vietnam will follow the model of Japan and South Korea. In agriculture problem of structural change and increased mechanisation.
- The first scenario (Land of the Golden Mekong) seems most likely to me, although I am not convinced that they will want to integrate as the scenario describes.
- Vietnamese are generally industrious and pragmatic. Therefore (with luck) not likely to get involved in the more extreme scenarios. Biggest potential problem will be risk of conflict between China and USA and their allies – perhaps due to tensions over China/Taiwan or Japan relations. This would be a threat on a global scale.
Mr. John Weatherhogg