1-What do you think are the main drivers of and obstacles to development for Vietnam in the next 30 years?
Main drivers for the development in Vietnam will be market linkages and regional economic collaborations with more foreign investments in Vietnam. These drivers shall also influence agriculture sector with the change of policies on food production (reduction of rice and increase of other cash crops such as maize, soybean, fruits and vegetables, etc). Land-use changes (more land allocated for cash crops than rice, land for industrialization, etc.) and land concentration in agriculture will gradually be a trend for modern farming and commercial production.
Major obstacles to agricultural development: 1) slow economic growth as a result of global crisis; 2) low agricultural product prices leading low incomes for farmers; 3) over demand of some commodities resulted from weak market forecast and poor policies; 4) weakness in food quality management/control; 5) increasing damages from climate shocks.
2. Keeping in mind that each scenario represents an extreme future, how plausible do you think the scenarios for Vietnam are? What would you like to add/change in each scenario to make it more plausible from your perspective?
All four scenarios seem reflecting trade/market relation within ASIAN and/or between ASIAN countries (in which Vietnam is a member) with China and other global actors (USA and EU) as important markets for future agricultural products. In this scene, the most plausible scenario seems to be Buffalo Buffalo; water flows uphill, but low incomes for food producers are still expected during the next 30 years, leading to a reduction of food production (especially rice) in the country.
3. What solutions would support the drivers of the best scenario and help overcome obstacles encountered on the way? How about overcoming the challenges of the worst scenarios?
Good policies on land use management and trade will help keeping trade-off between food and other crop production while increasing farmer’s incomes. Previous experiences for Vietnam agriculture show low income for rice farmers and the country have imported many other agricultural products (it was estimated that Vietnam rice export value in 2012 was just the same value of imported food and other agricultural products such as maize, soybean, etc for animal feed).
4. What are the key first steps needed to get a change process in motion, and who needs to be involved?
The government leads the process with appropriate policies to encourage the participation of private sector.
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Nguyen Van Linh, PhD
Country Technical Coordinator,
The CSA project - GCP/INT/139/EC
FAO Vietnam, No.3, Nguyen Gia Thieu st, Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel.: 84-(0)912 563 515
Email: [email protected]
Nguyen Van Linh