Main drivers of development for Vietnam in the next 30 years could be privatization of state owned enterprises, opportunities from TPP and other trade agreements, and reform initiatives taken by governments.
Main obstacles could be the slowness of privatization/reform process as mentioned above, risks from not able to take opportunities provided by trade agreement (TPP and others), risks from mismanagement of environment (water pollution, over-exploitation of natural resources), and risks from climate change associated impacts.
Scenario 1 is the most plausible for Vietnam although I do not agree with all of it.
Dr. Ho Son