I would like to thank the current contributors to this debate for their thought provoking reflections on the challenges of ensuring more sustained outcomes in a very unstable context that is the world we all live in. This instability is potentially more complex among the disaster and shock prone communities and individuals that the work we do seeks to support out of perpetual cycle of inadequate readiness for the shocks.
That said I have come accross some literature that I believe captures some of the salient points in an analysis of resilience measurement tools that is relevant to this discussion. This is in a paper by Sharifi A. 2016 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X16302588). The paper is a stock take of tools for assessing community resilience.
In the paper he references to the need to acknowledge cross-scale relationships of shocks and capturing the temporal dynamism of in abilities of communities and individuals to respond to shocks Sharifi A (2016:631). The two dynamics introduce time and space aspects in measuring resilience . He continues to introduce the subject of uncertainities which is at the heart of this discussion. With this the need for iterative assessments and scenario development is brought to the forefront.
The temporal dynamism and uncertainities in resilience measurement are in my opinion easily the two specific areas that need more focus. Complex as they may be, they point to the obvios need for deeper analysis accross multiple shocks in both time and impact, past current and future.
As we keep talking it would be interesting to hear of any practical examples out there that have modelled out specific potential resilience outcomes in a dynamic and unpredictable context.