Having participated in this scenario setting session for Zambia last year, it is interesting to take a second look at them and probably with hindsight, re-evaluate my position on them.
In terms of the main drivers of development of Zambia in the next 30 years, a number of factors are important but two immediately come to mind. Infrastructure development, especially in terms of transport infrastructure which opens up the country and improves efficient movement of goods and services in a prerequisite. Second to infrastructure development is the old song of diversification of the economy from its historical over-reliance on copper to a well functioning agricultural sector supported by a robust Agro-processing industry which adds value to agricultural products
Because of climatic uncertainties, cross cutting issue of climate proofing all these programmes or strategies will be crucial to ensure they remain climate-resilient.
Revisiting the scenarios for the future, I feel reality is somewhere between Mwadya Mweka and Kudyela but very difficult to ascertain as it depends on a lot of factors.