This is a time for moving beyond the general concepts to more concrete policy proposals that illustrate – without prescribing – how alternative policy sets can contribute to a greater growth model for food and agriculture . In this context, particular attention will need to be paid with a concept of Scenario Planning in context of the developing countries as well as developed ones, which can guide for a long-term funding for agriculture.
Over time, this process could become a tool to increase collective knowledge about the best suitable and sustainable option which can adaptable for all global economies easily. It would be a way for countries to measure their own progress relative to others and learn from the experience of others. Most importantly it would be a step towards reframing growth to better account for agriculture assets and the risks that could ultimately undermine economic growth and development.
The process of scenario planning has already been used in Indian context and here It will be good to mentioned the same. The process has the following important steps:
• Identify driving forces. Taking into consideration the global political conditions, economic developments, social developments, environmental, trends, and technological changes, assessment is made of the driving forces for change in the future.
• Identify predetermined factors. Assess which future developments are predetermined, that is, will take place in any scenario.
• Identify critical uncertainties. Identify the critical areas in which the future is uncertain and can easily flip-flop.
• Develop scenario plots. A scenario is defined by combining a small number of sets of critical uncertainties. A comprehensive description of how the future would look under this scenario then is developed. These futures must be plausible.
• Consult. A rigorous consultation process to clarify the scenarios involves presenting the scenarios to a large number of people who have expertise relevant to the scenario exercise, collecting their comments, and incorporating the comments in the framework and scenario stories. Consultation will reveal the gaps in knowledge of the system being studied. Part of the consultation phase is to decide on additional research in areas in which new or more knowledge will improve the quality of understanding.
• Assess the implications of the different scenarios. The best possible responses of the organization(s) concerned to each of the plausible future scenarios are assessed.
• Compare possible responses to the different scenarios. Two elements in the comparison require special attention (1) the actions that can be found in all responses and tend to be associated with low risk and (2) the responses that differ more among scenarios. Responses in these fields may require further assessment to understand how the impact of change on these variables can be managed. Differing responses also may lead to the development of correlated response policies.
Gyanesh K Shukla
Environment/Development Consultant India
Related links and resources:
Vacancy announcement - attachment 1 & 2 (in French, deadline 18.07.2012)
List of Innovative Financing Mechanisms for Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition
Summary table Innovative Financing
Leading Group on Innovative Financing for Development