1. What do you think are the main drivers of and obstacles to development for Vietnam in the next 30 years?
a. Main drivers for the development of Vietnam in 30 years
- macro-environmental drivers that create the broad context for the development of Vietnam: (1) Industrialization and modernization policies will promote (2) advanced technology application (including information technologies, material technology and energy technology), (3) establishment of multi-lateral trade treaties (at regional and global levels) and thus leading to (4) an integratedly sustainable economy. The (5) stable political condition will ensure the national security for sustainable and stable development of Vietnam
- Micro-environmental drivers that will affect particular elements of the development of Vietnam: (1) young and well trained population will play an important role in promoting economic development. (2) Proper policies relative to climate change adaptation and mitigation, sustainable agriculture, and environmental sustainability will drive development of Vietnam positively. (3) Policies to develop and exploit new energy sources, such as solar energy and bio-energy, will ensure energy security for development.
b. Obstacles for the development of Vietnam in 30 years
- Depletion of natural resources (land, water, air, forest etc.)
- Pressure from population increase
- Increasing extreme weather events (droughts, floods, temperature rise, sea level rise, etc.) with more severe damages
- Impacts from other strong economies (competition between domestic products and imported products)
- unpredictable inflation, economic crises
- Inequality in human and natural resource distribution, in development between regions, sectors.
2. Keeping in mind that each scenario represents an extreme future, how plausible do you think the scenarios for Vietnam are? What would you like to add/change in each scenario to make it more plausible from your perspective?
To me, the Doreki dragon is the most plausible scenario. Since Vietnam is planning to promote GM food production we are looking forward to have a more effective and more profitable agriculture sector that aims at ensuring our future food security and contribution to GDP from Agriculture production.
In addition, Vietnam is already a member of regional and international trade collaborations that all most all products from governmental and private companies are able to reach outside markets contributing considerably into the National GDP. Farmer households have to join bigger cooperatives that their production is secured and ensured the output markets.
However, since then, the urbanization, industrialization and modernization will be likely to cause the depletion of environment, natural resources leading to wide gaps between socio-levels, urban and rural, city and remote, famers and officials, et. Similarly, with increasing changes in climate more farmers are vulnerable to severe impacts of climate shocks and therefore those farmers find it difficult to deal with/adapt to climate change in the scenario.
The scenario therefore would be more plausible if we advocate Vietnam to have more policies to support poor and the vulnerable farmers, especially woman and children, to adapt to climate change and economic changes. These supports should come from government, civil society organizations, private sector, Non-Governmental Organizations etc.
3. What solutions would support the drivers of the best scenario and help overcome obstacles encountered on the way? How about overcoming the challenges of the worst scenarios?
In order to support the drivers to overcome the obstacles in the Doreki dragon scenario, we can propose following solutions.
- Having comprehensive and complete policies on climate change adaptation and mitigation that can help to avoid risks, shocks and damages from unpredictable changes in climate.
- Having good policies in environmental and natural resource protection to manage exploitation environmental goods, and avoid depletion of natural resources.
- Having good economic policies that support poor and vulnerable people to adapt to economic crisis, to climate change and natural hazard.
- improving awareness and knowledge of population on climate change and its impacts of economic development and production, especially agriculture production. Introduce new and better livelihood activities that poor people can apply to improve their income and living condition.
4. What are the key first steps needed to get a change process in motion, and who needs to be involved?
Need assessment for Vietnam at all levels that can work out the urgent issues need to be dealt with. Base on findings from need assessment we can propose appropriate initiatives, suitable policy reform and better administration works for development of Vietnam and these should be the first key steps.
Other EPIC country scenarios: