Thank you all for your comments so far - it is very interesting, though not unexpected , to see that different individuals have different ideas of what the scenario is that they see as most likely to develop. This is one of the reasons it is useful to work with multiple scenarios and focus on whether they are telling plausible stories and posing useful challenges to decision-making. The comments on drivers and change processes are very useful. Many thanks! Joost
Dr. Vervoort Joost