Thème: Prix des denrées alimentaires

Volalité des prix des denrées alimentaires et offre de main d’oeuvre

par Mr. Julian Hochscherf

Chers membres du forum,

Je prépare un doctorat sur l’assurabilité des chocs des prix des denrées alimentaires dus aux aléas météorologiques en Afrique subsaharienne sur la base de micro assurances indexées. J’étudie plus particulièrement les répercussions de la volatilité des prix des denrées alimentaires sur l'offre de main-d'oeuvre effective. Je voudrais en outre analyser si ces décisions en matière d'offre de main-d'oeuvre peuvent constituer une explication à la faiblesse de la croissance économique dans les pays qui affichent une volatilité relativement plus forte des prix des denrées alimentaires.

La première phase du projet va consister à trouver des preuves empiriques qui rendent compte d'une réaction de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre effective face à la volatilité des prix des denrées alimentaires. La deuxième phase sera de mettre en évidence des modèles de prix entre les aléas climatiques et les prix des denrées alimentaires et de déterminer leur impact sur l’indexation des assurances. Puisque je n’en suis qu’au premier stade de ce projet, je serais très reconnaissant aux praticiens ou chercheurs plus expérimentés de bien vouloir m'envoyer des propositions, des commentaires, des contacts, etc.

Julian Hochscherf

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Review of Global Food Price Databases

As part of a three-phase project, the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) sponsored a comparative study of the globally managed cross-country price and market information systems to assess complementarities and overlaps.

This report contains a review of these databases in terms of data collection, quality control mechanisms, management, use, analysis methods and tools. It includes recommendations to improve the integration and harmonization of the FAO, WFP and FEWS NET databases, in order to improve efficiency and enhance inter-operability.

A second phase is underway to begin implementing these recommendations, identify gaps in existing guidance, and review how market price data are collected and used in selected countries.

The ultimate objective of the project is to facilitate national capacity development on FSN information systems based on expressed demands.

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Trade Liberalization and Food Security: For a New Green Revolution in Africa

The purpose of this study is to provide a framework in order to analyze the relation between trade liberalization and food security in Africa. From the 80s, the Bretton Woods institutions consider trade liberalization as a solution to achieve food security in Africa. In this study, the analysis of food security indicators is based on: availability, accessibility and stability / volatility. The situation is that several years after the application of this trade policy, the goal is still not achieved. Thus, reforming agricultural policies in Africa, a fair multilateral trade, the necessary facilities for the African countries to access international markets, and maintaining complementarity between Multilateralism and Regionalism are necessary conditions to promote food security in Africa.

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Why has Africa become a net food importer?

That Africa has become a net importer of food and of agricultural products, despite its vast agricultural potential, is puzzling. Using data mainly for the period 1960-2007, this report seeks to explain Africa’s food-trade deficit since the mid-1970s. The core finding is that population growth, low and stagnating agricultural productivity, policy distortions, weak institutions and poor infrastructure are the main reasons. A typology of African countries based on data between 2000 and 2005 reveals that the state of food import dependency is different across the continent and varies according to countries’ levels of income. Although the few and relatively rich countries in Africa had the highest net food imports per capita (USD 185 per year in real terms), they had ample means to pay for their food import bills using revenue from non-agricultural sources. Conversely, the majority of the Africa’s low-income countries (mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa), where twothird of its population lives, had been net food importers; they imported far less food per capita (USD 17 per year) but had difficulty covering their food imports bills, as their export revenues were limited. Overall, between 1980 and 2007, Africa’s total net food imports in real term grew at 3.4 percent per year, but this growth was mostly fuelled by population growth (2.6 percent per year); the increase in per capita food import was only about 0.8 percent per year. Food consumption on per capita basis grew only at about 1 percent per year, while food production grew at an even smaller rate of less than 0.1 percent per year. The slow growth of food consumption and imports per capita is consistent with the weak economic growth and unchanged dietary pattern in the continent. Food import share, regardless of income levels, is relatively small and represents less than 5 percent of per capita income (GDP per capita). Because the share of food expense in household income is generally high in Africa, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, that the share of food imports over GDP is small implies that domestic production has largely contributed to feeding Africa’s population. Still, domestic food production has remained relatively low and increased only by 2.7 percent per year, just barely above population growth rate. This implies that any increase in per capita consumption had to be met by an increase in imports. The weak growth in food production arises from various constraints including those linked directly to agricultural productivity. Data and evidence from literature highlight that technical, infrastructural and institutional constraints share the blame. Likewise, distortions arising from both internal and external economic and agricultural policies (especially the protection and subsidies from developed countries and taxation on food production within Africa) have affected food productivity, production and trade in Africa. However, the examples of a few successful practices in African agriculture and the fact that the domestic food production has managed to keep up with population growth inspire optimism that the future is not all dark. There is a lot of room for improvement for agricultural productivity in these low-income countries to the point at which production growth outpaces the growth of population and per capita consumption.