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These scenarios highlight the need for strategic thinking on economic development in a broad sense. Each of the three more problematic scenarios emphasize this need, each in a different fashion, highlighting problems around growing inequality and outside investment that perhaps will only benefit a few, or problems around economic activities that keep the country back. The Wotsalira scenario offers the most challenging future because there is no leverage point for action unlike in the other two "negative" scenarios. Where do you begin? Perhaps civil society (if organizations can be found that are not crippled by corruption) offers a way toward improvement, together with international support?
All scenarios offer different challenges and opportunities - but perhaps the Nalimali scenario offerst the toughest challenge. Institutions are working reasonably well and are adaptive, but nevertheless they are not able to overcome the problems of a struggling economy, which means their adaptive capacity has been overwhelmed. How could this situation be remedied? Could fruitful collaborations between the government and socially responsible private sector help overcome the problems?
Thank you all for your comments so far - it is very interesting, though not unexpected , to see that different individuals have different ideas of what the scenario is that they see as most likely to develop. This is one of the reasons it is useful to work with multiple scenarios and focus on whether they are telling plausible stories and posing useful challenges to decision-making. The comments on drivers and change processes are very useful. Many thanks! Joost