Reference Date: 14-July-2022

Cereal production in eastern provinces affected by increased violence, population displacements and floods

Harvesting of the 2022 secondary maize crop is underway in bimodal rainfall northern provinces and production outlook is generally favourable as precipitation amounts have been near the average levels in most cropping areas.

In bimodal central provinces, harvesting of the 2022 secondary season maize crop took place between March and May, under overall favourable weather conditions, except in parts of Maniema, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, where heavy rains in mid‑April caused localized flooding, resulting in some damage to standing crops. Increased violence in the eastern provinces caused new population displacements, resulting in localized disruption of agricultural operations, including harvesting of the 2022 secondary season maize crops and land preparation of the 2022 main season maize crops. Planting of the latter began in July and favourable weather conditions are forecast during the growing period between September and November. Elevated international prices of fuel and fertilizers (largely imported, mainly from South Africa and Zambia) could lead to a lower use of agricultural inputs and potentially reduced yields in 2022.

In southernmost unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2022 maize crops finalized by end‑June. Near‑average cumulative rainfall amounts were conducive for an adequate crop development and maize yields are estimated at near‑average levels.

Inflation expected to decline in 2022, but remaining at high levels

Prices of imported staple foods are at high levels as a result of limited availabilities in the local markets due to reduced imports of some commodities, such as maize flour and vegetable oil, amid high transportation costs.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation is expected to decline in 2022, compared to the 2021 rate of 9 percent, but to remain high at 6.4 percent. Although some small quantities of crude oil are produced in the country, the requirements for refined petroleum products are met through imports owing to limited refinery capacity. As a result, the recent surge in global crude oil prices compared to the 2021 levels prompted the government to raise domestic prices of petrol and diesel, exerting inflationary pressure. A strong growth of minerals export earnings is expected in 2022, likely preventing further increases in the inflation rate.

About 26 million people estimated severely food insecure in first semester of 2022

According to the latest IPC analysis, published in November 2021, about 26 million people (25 percent of the total population) were projected to face Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse and above levels of acute food insecurity between January and June 2022. This would mark a slight improvement compared to the 27.3 million people in Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse and above levels for the same period in 2021. However, as a result of the recent escalation of conflicts in eastern provinces and consequent population movements, coupled with the high prices of staple food, the magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity may exceed the projected levels.

The first IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis in the country was conducted in September 2021 in 70 “health zones” (out of a total of 519). According to the analysis, about 857 000 children under the age of five were estimated to be acutely malnourished (IPC Phase 2 [Alert] or higher) between April and August 2022, including 219 300 estimated to be severely malnourished (IPC Phase 3 [Severe] or higher). In addition, about 468 400 pregnant or lactating women were estimated to be in IPC Phase 2 [Alert] or higher, in the reporting period. This is mainly due to acute food insecurity levels, high prevalence of childhood illnesses, such as malaria and diarrhoea, frequent outbreaks of measles and cholera, inaccessibility to adequate sanitation facilities and very limited access to drinking water.

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