Reference Date: 18-October-2023

Paddy output in 2023 forecast at below‑average level

Harvesting of the 2023 main season paddy crop is underway and production is forecast at a below‑average level. This mainly reflects a sharp decline in plantings for the second consecutive year as farmers were discouraged to sow, following the government’s decision , in August 2022, to eliminate reference prices on rice. According to estimates of the National Rice Corporation (CONARROZ) as of end‑September, the planted area with the 2023 main season paddy crop was more than 35 percent lower year‑on‑year and over 65 percent below the level of two years ago. Satellite imagery indicates favourable crop conditions in the key producing western provinces of Guanacaste and Puntarenas (VCI map).

Planting of the 2023 minor season paddy crop, predominantly irrigated, is ongoing in Guanacaste and Alajuela provinces, where seasonal production is concentrated. The area sown is forecast to remain at a below‑average level. Rainfall amounts are forecast at below‑average levels in the main producing areas during the last quarter of 2023, which could lower irrigation water availability and exacerbate the contraction of plantings.

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (August/July) are forecast at an above‑average level of 1.6 million tonnes, mainly reflecting the sustained demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed sector. Import requirements of wheat (grain and flour), and rice are also forecast at high levels, on account of the rising demand for human consumption. Rice imports rose sharply by 75 percent year‑on‑year in the 2022/23 marketing year due to the decline in domestic production.

Prices of rice slightly lower year‑on‑year in September 2023

Despite the removal of reference prices, retail prices of rice declined in the first half of 2023 as the strengthening of the Costa Rican colón made imports more affordable. The improved supply due to an increase in imports also exerted downward pressure on prices. Between July and September, prices strengthened moderately following the depreciation of the national currency and upward trends in international markets. In September 2023, prices were marginally lower year‑on‑year, with markets well supplied by imported rice.

Prices of black beans reached record high levels in March 2023 due to year‑on‑year lower imports in 2022 as well as high export prices in the United States of America and Nicaragua, the country’s main suppliers of beans. Increased imports weighed on prices in the April to July period. In September 2023, prices were 6 percent above their year‑earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .