Reference Date: 12-October-2023

Cereal production in 2023 forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting of the 2023 maize, millet, sorghum and rice crops is currently underway in most areas of the country and is expected to be concluded by November. Official sources point to a generally good performance of the 2023 cropping season due to overall favourable weather conditions during the June‑October rainy season. However, below‑average rains at start of the cropping season and some dry spells in August have likely resulted in localized crop production shortfalls, especially in parts of Lower River, Central River and Upper River regions.

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 116 million tonnes, 8 percent above the previous year’s level and 16 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the overall conducive weather conditions, the year‑on‑year increase in planted area and the provision of subsidized fertilizers by the government, which is expected to boost yields.

Prices of coarse grains significantly higher year‑on‑year

Between January and May 2023, retail prices of locally produced millet increased by 20 to 50 percent, while prices of local maize rose by 35 to 75 percent in different markets across the country. Prices of both millet and maize were stable in June and July 2023 (latest available data). Prices of maize were 35 to 85 percent higher year‑on‑year in July, while prices of millet were 60 to 85 percent above their year‑earlier levels in most markets. In the market of Farafenni, located in the North Bank Division that accounts for over 40 percent of the domestic production of millet, the price of millet was 25 percent higher on a yearly basis. High prices of coarse grains were mostly due to elevated fuel prices, which led to increased transport costs.

About 320 000 people acutely food insecure during 2023 lean season

According to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” (CH) analysis, nearly 320 000 people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the lean season between June and August 2023, including about 20 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a deterioration compared to the previous year, when nearly 207 000 people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

The year‑on‑year increase in acute food insecurity levels is mostly driven by the high food and non‑food inflation coupled with low households’ purchasing power. In August 2023, the annual inflation rate was estimated at 18 percent, the highest level in nearly 20 years. High inflation was driven by high food prices, which registered a year‑on‑year increase of 24 percent in August 2023, elevated fuel prices and an upward revision of water and electricity prices in April 2023.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2023 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in late November 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .