Reference Date: 02-April-2024

Weather conditions expected to improve at planting time of 2024 main maize crop

Planting operations of the 2024 main season maize crop typically starts in May. Rainfall amounts in April and May are forecast at average levels, likely replenishing localized current soil moisture deficits due to below‑average precipitation amounts between January and mid‑March 2024. Weather forecasts point to above‑average precipitation amounts in the June to August period, which coincides with crop grain filling and maturation stages and the start of the harvest. If excessive rains materialize, they could diminish yields and constrain harvesting operations. In addition, hotter‑than‑average temperatures are forecast throughout the main cropping season, likely causing pest infestations. The area sown is likely to be above the average due to the expected favourable weather conditions at planting time as well as low levels of fertilizer prices. However, compared to the previous year’s large sowings, a slight reduction in planted area is forecast in 2024 due to lower year‑on‑year prices.

Maize output in 2023 estimated at above‑average level

According to official estimates, 2023 maize production was about 735 000 tonnes, more than 10 percent above the five‑year average. Although there were concerns at the beginning of the cropping season due to the impact on crops of dry weather conditions, associated with the El Niño phenomenon, weather conditions were generally favourable and contributed to above‑average yields.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at an above‑average level of 1.2 million tonnes. The high needs reflect the increasing consumption of wheat and rice in line with population growth and the sustained demand for yellow maize by the feed industry.

Prices of staple maize and beans lower year‑on‑year in February 2024

Prices of white maize declined between August 2023 and February 2024, reflecting abundant supplies from above‑average domestic production and larger year‑on‑year imports. As of February 2024, prices were about 20 percent below their values a year ago. Prices of red beans have remained generally stable, after decreasing sharply between August and September 2023 with the harvest of the minor season crops. In the capital’s Tegucigalpa market, prices were 15 percent lower year‑on‑year in February 2024. Prices of rice remained unchanged, reflecting adequate supplies, predominantly due to imports.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .