Reference Date: 17-November-2023

Favourable production prospects for “2024A” crops due to adequate precipitation amounts

The 2023 September ‑ November “short‑rains” season had a timely onset and precipitation amounts received in September were above average over most cropping areas. The favourable weather conditions had a positive impact on the establishment “2024A” season crops, to be harvested from December and accounting for about 60 percent of the aggregate cereal output. Although rainfall amounts in October were below average over several cropping areas, vegetation conditions remained above average (ASI map) due to the moisture accumulated early in the season and crop production prospects are favourable.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), precipitation amounts during the remainder of the rainy season are expected at above ‑ average levels, with a likely positive impact on yields. However, if this forecast materializes, the occurrence of floods and landslides may result in localized crop losses.

Aggregate cereal production in 2023 estimated at above‑average level

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at 847 000 tonnes, about 10 percent above the last five‑year average, following favourable weather conditions, especially during the 2023 February‑May “long‑rains” season.

Regarding non‑cereal staples, production of cassava and cooking bananas is also estimated above the five‑year average by 7 and 18 percent, respectively. By contrast, the aggregate production of beans and peas is estimated at about 5 and 20 percent, respectively, below the average as an erratic temporal distribution of precipitation during the 2022 September‑November “short‑rains” seasons in Eastern Province, the main producing area of pulses, affected their yields, particularly vulnerable to rainfall irregularities.

Prices of maize at low levels, high prices of beans

The national average price of maize grain and beans seasonally increased between July and October 2023 by 3 and 7 percent, respectively. However, the average price of maize grain in October was 7 percent lower on a yearly basis due to adequate domestic availability. Further downward pressure was exerted by the removal of the Valued added tax (VAT) in April on maize, maize flour, rice and potatoes. By contrast, the average price of beans last October was 14 percent higher than a year earlier due to tight supply following production shortfalls.

Favourable food security situation, except for refugees and asylum seekers

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 1 (Minimal) levels of food acute insecurity currently prevail in rural areas and in the capital, Kigali. The favourable food security situation is mainly due to adequate food availability, owing to above‑average local production and improved cross‑border trade with Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, and to favourable food access conditions, on account of the growth of the economy benefiting employment opportunities and of declining food prices supported by the VAT removal on key staples.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of September 2023, the country hosted about 136 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. Most of them live in camps and they mainly rely on humanitarian assistance. A sustained influx of new refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is increasing the humanitarian needs of the refugee population, in a context of funding shortfalls for assistance operations. As a result, refugees are estimated to face IPC Phase 2 (Stressed!) levels of acute food insecurity, with households having a minimally adequate food consumption but being unable to afford some essential non‑food expenditures, with food assistance averting a worse food insecurity situation.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .