Reference Date: 19-June-2023

Dry weather conditions affecting ongoing planting of 2023 main maize crops

Planting of the 2023 main season maize crops started in June, with a delay of one month, and it is ongoing at a slow pace due to soil moisture deficits. Satellite imagery indicates poor crop conditions in central and eastern areas (red areas in VHI map), where maize cultivation is concentrated. Planted area to the main maize crop is forecast at a below‑average level, due to the current dryness as well as to persistently high production costs, albeit lower year‑on‑year. However, precipitation amounts are forecast to increase from July onwards, which is likely to have positive effects on yields. Rainfall during the third trimester is forecast to be near average. In addition, if the current soil moisture deficit is fully covered by improved rains in the coming months, it is likely that sowings of second season crops, expected to take place in September, will increase.

In order to improve production capacity of smallholder farmers, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock is distributing free maize seeds and fertilizers to more than 500 000 farmers, with a total budget of USD 38 million .

Cereal import requirements, mostly yellow maize and wheat, anticipated at high levels in 2022/23

Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (September/August) are anticipated at high levels of 1.2 million tonnes. The high level mainly reflects strong demand of wheat for human consumption and maize by the feed industry.

Prices of white maize and red beans above year‑earlier levels in May

Prices of white maize weakened between March and May 2023, due to improved supply from larger year‑on‑year imports during the first four months of the year. However, prices in May were still 8 percent higher than one year before, reflecting elevated production and transport costs. Prices of red beans rose in May for the second consecutive month and they were more than 30 percent up from a year earlier, on account of high export quotations of Nicaragua, the country’s key bean supplier. Prices of wheat flour have been stable since February 2023, following the recent weakening of international quotations. After sustained increases between September 2021 and January 2023, prices in May were about 10 percent higher year‑on‑year.

The annual food inflation rate in May 2023 was estimated at 8.4 percent, the lowest in one year, as a result of recent weakening of international quotations of food and fuel.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .