Reference Date: 13-July-2023

Mixed performance of 2023 “Masika” harvest in bimodal rainfall areas

In northern, northeastern and coastal bimodal rainfall areas, the 2023 “Masika” crops, planted between February and March, are currently being harvested. Adequate precipitation in terms of amounts and distribution was received in northern and northeastern areas, where a satisfactory crop performance is expected. By contrast, in coastal areas, rainfall amounts during most of the growing period were below average, except for some heavy showers in late April and early May, which accounted for almost half of the seasonal cumulative precipitation. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), in several districts of Tanga, Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Pwani regions, as of end‑May, immediately before the start of harvesting operations, between 35 and 70 percent of cropland was affected by severe drought, with likely substantial crop production shortfalls.

Production of 2023 major “Msimu” crops in unimodal rainfall areas tentatively put at below‑average levels

In southern and central unimodal rainfall areas, the 2023 major “Msimu” harvest is about to be finalized. Pending the release of official estimates, cereal production is tentatively put at below‑average levels. The November to April rainy season was characterized by prolonged dry spells in January and February, which, along with the outbreak of pests, including Fall Armyworm and Quelea Quelea birds, severely constrained yields. According to FAO’s ASI, as of end‑April, immediately before the start of harvesting operations, between 35 and more than 70 percent of cropland was affected by drought in several districts of central Tabora, Dodoma and Rukwa regions, and of southern Njombe, Mtwara, Lindi and Ruvuma regions.

Yields of most crops have also been affected by generalized low application rates of fertilizers due to their high costs. With about 90 percent of the country’s fertilizers’ requirements sourced from the international market, prices have been inflated by the ripple effect of the war in Ukraine. Prices of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea are currently about 45 and 55 percent, respectively, higher than in 2021, before the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

Prices of maize at high levels due to tight domestic availabilities and sustained export demand

The national average price of maize almost doubled between March 2022 and March 2023 as seasonal patterns were compounded by a fast depletion of stocks due to a reduced production in 2022. Subsequently, prices declined by 12 percent between March and May 2023 with the beginning of the “Msimu” harvest. However, despite the recent declines, prices remained almost 50 percent higher on a yearly basis, with sustained export demand exerting additional upward pressure.

Pockets of food insecurity due to crop production shortfalls in 2022

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, an estimated 990 000 people were projected to face severe acute food insecurity between March and May 2023, 839 000 people in 28 mainland districts and 151 000 in the Zanzibar Islands. The food insecurity situation was mainly driven by a reduced crop production in 2022 due to dry weather conditions and by high food prices.

As of late April 2023, about 250 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are residing in the country. About 84 percent of the refugees and asylum seekers live in camps in western Kigoma, Katavi and Tabora regions, including about 132 000 people residing in Nyarugusu Camp in Kigoma Region, near the border with Burundi. Most refugees and asylum seekers lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .